I've read many versions of what got the Dutch entry (which I really liked) kicked out, almost all related to Israel.... but the official statement from EBU just mentions a complaint by a female member of the production crew (presumably Swedish) after an "incident" after Thursday's semi final....
It is stressed that it had nothing to do with any other delgation.... (which is code for it wasn't about the Israeli performer).
Israel who has a 50% chance of winning, with Croatia at 32%
Rumor has it Israel is/was behind a move to artificially inflate the vote (have no idea how or if it's even possible)
Still, probably large majorities in many countries aren't nearly as sympathetic to Hamas as misguided young people and/or paid protestors are.
No song got close to the reaction that Croatia did during the semis and they have a good position toward the end so... if the jury goes for it...
I'm not sure if the jury will want to go through the hassle of another Israeli show....
Dark horses... Spain? Got a tremendous pop during the first semi with the crowd chanting along Zorra! Zorra! (b[tch! b[tch!) The lyrics are very good in Spanish but I don't know how well they translate
France? Also big crowd reaction (and has been in the top 5 in betting....
Italy (long a fave of mine) was a bit flat in the semi performance, she's a great singer and performer so she might figure out what the problem was and deal with it.
I can say for certain though.... it won't be Germany....