What should Poland do to solve the population crisis?

Merged: Demographic crisis in Poland deepens

Poland's demographic situation is dramatic and will get even worse around 2020 when the post-war baby boomers start to retire, warns economist Krzysztof Rybiński. Government proposals on family policy, including longer paid maternity leaves and higher subsidies to public nurseries and kindergartens, are going in the right direction, but were just a drop in the bucket, Rybinski maintains. "We can make some progress (with that) but what we need is a radical leap," he adds. Commenting on his words labour minister Władysaw Kosiniak-Kamysz pointed out that the fertility rates have been falling steadily since the 1990s. Now they reached levels that require firm action "and we are taking such actions," hre claimed. He encourages people of various political orientations to unite forces and act jointly disregarding divisions. The demographic situation cannot be changed in a matter of one parliamentary term.

serwis.papnews.com.pl/00400522/navsetting.nlx?shq=120

Poland needs to look to Russia, which has raised it's fertility rate from a catastrophic 1.2 to an improving 1.6 in a decade, while Poland has languished in the pits of demographic despair.

How did they do it?

Putin pays you $9,000 to have a second child, plus gives you cash to raise them and pays for additional subsidies for childcare, etc. Makes Polish "becikowe" look like a joke, and even that tiny little payment of a few hundred bucks had vocal critics about poor, hardworking people having to pay for other people's "brats" ("bachory"). And the Polish government, instead of actively subsidising children, has increased VAT on kids' clothes.

Putin's government has been aggressively pursuing pro-family policies and supporting young families and marriage, eschewing much of the political correctness of the West. The Russian government now wants to encourage families to have 3 children, and aims to work towards that goal by providing additional subsidies and attempting to make people feel economically secure enough to decide to have further offspring.

All the nay-sayers, who said that the State shouldn't interfere or subsidise children and that such policies are expensive and have no effect have now been proved wrong, as Russia, which was recently trending towards demographic collapse, has this year recorded population growth for the very first time in about 20 years.

Russia's future has gone from very bleak to increasingly positive in just a decade of good, patriotic government that has at least attempted to look after the interests of Russian citizens instead of just lining the pockets of Western businessmen (although I'm sure some of that has probably happened too, but much less than under Yeltsin).

You know a lot about Russia. Good!

I'm curious what Poland will do. Will Poland take the Russian path (try to increase population growth at home) or take the western approach (import boat loads of muslims other 3rd world migrants)?

There's always the third approach. Just let the demographic catastrophe happen and commit slow motion national suicide.

Here's to hoping Russia reaches replacement rate (2.1) in the next 20 years and Poland follows suit.

You do it by paying a livable wage. If people are not economically secure they won't have children. The Roman Catholic philosophy of "living in poverty leads to heaven" is pagan nonsense.

I agree with you 100%.


No, the Roman Catholic philosophy is that God cares for you even if the world looks down on you because you're poor.

If the Catholic Church believed that poverty was salvific, it wouldn't have undertaken any charitable works in its 2000 year history and there would have been no Catholic schools, hospitals, soup kitchens and homeless shelters.

Being paid a just and living wage for your work is an integral part of Catholic social teaching, and paying as low a wage as the market lets you get away with has more in common with modern economic liberalism than with Catholicism.

The government is doing plenty already; there is no need for any more initiatives. This is what the government has done and intends on doing:

So far the government has adopted the so-called Act on day care which increased the subsidies for gminas for establishing day care centres or children clubs, the Act on social insurance system which stipulates that the state budget will finance pension and disability pension contributions for all persons who resign from work to bring up their children; and an amendment to the Labour Code which stipulates that one of 36 months of the child care leave must be used by the other parent. The work is underway on regulations introducing a year-long parental leave.

The pro-family policy is also implemented by means of other government programmes: the “Flat for the Young” programme (addressed to families and singles up to 35 years of age), reimbursement of in vitro procedures (the 3-year long programme will be launched in July 2013 and will cover 15 000-20 000 couples; the public funds will finance approx. 70-80% of the cost of the procedures). Other forms of government support include newborn allowances and a higher tax relief for families with three or more children.

It is far more than anything that Russia has done. BTW if you look at the demographic Russian boom closely, I think that you will find that most of that boom is taking place near the Urals and the caucuses, or through people who have moved from these areas and settled in Russian metropolitan areas.

The average fertility rate has gone up from 1.2 to 1.6. That's nothing to laugh at. It's a massive improvement any way you slice it, regardless of where the growth is taking place because it's growth that wasn't there before.

And the more sparsely populated territories of Russia are precisely where it is most pressing for the Federal government to increase the number of Russian citizens.

Most of the progress the Polish government has made is in adopting some Western standards, such as increasing parental leave and making provisions for its transfer between parents.

That's all well and good, but people also need resources when they are off work to be able to raise children.

And tax relief for large families is good, but it doesn't help those who don't earn enough to pay much tax anyway. A lot of the time, the government's stance seens to be "if you can't afford to have children, you shouldn't be having any," when the majority of the fertile population doesn't feel economically secure enough to consider having more than one or two children.

This sort of mindset is not going to go very far. Between 2003 and 2008, the Polish fertility rate increased from 1.2 to 1.4. Since 2009, it has fallen back to 1.3.

That certainly means that the Polish government is NOT doing enough, since not only has it failed to arrest the fall in fertility, but has overseen its decrease back to catastrophically low levels.

[quote=kcharlie] Most of the progress the Polish government has made is in adopting some Western standards, such as increasing parental leave and making provisions for its transfer between parents.That's all well and good, but people also need resources when they are off work to be able to raise children.And tax relief for large families is good, but it doesn't help those who don't earn enough to pay much tax anyway. A lot of the time, the government's stance seens to be "if you can't afford to have children, you shouldn't be having any," when the majority of the fertile population doesn't feel economically secure enough to consider having more than one or two children.This sort of mindset is not going to go very far. Between 2003 and 2008, the Polish fertility rate increased from 1.2 to 1.4. Since 2009, it has fallen back to 1.3.That certainly means that the Polish government is NOT doing enough, since not only has it failed to arrest the fall in fertility, but has overseen its decrease back to catastrophically low levels.

I was just making the general observation that although the rate has gone up; it's probably more to do with Russia's ethnic minorities, which from a Russian point of view is a problem because it has big problem with racism: From Russia with hate

youtube.com%2Fresults%3Fsearch_query%3DFrom%2BRussia%
In regards to the government's policies, at a time of economic slowdown there is simply nothing more the government can do in the present circumstances. Notice that the fall in the fertility rate has coincided with the start of the economic crisis, when that reverses hopefully things will change. And I agree, if you can't afford to be having children then you shouldn't have them. Giving away money in lump sums is no guarantee that the money will be spent on the children, most people will probably spend the money on new plasma TVs. By making poor people breed you are just creating problems for the future, such social breakdown and an increase in crime down the track. If you want an improvement in the social stock you have to encourage the people who should be breeding but are not due to work commitments, which is what the government is doing.

So the increase in subsidies for day cares amounts to how much for the end user? Like after funds are skimmed and directors and officials buy new cars and nice presents for their friends and family, how much does the end user actually benefit?

The state budget will finance pension and disability pension contributions for those who resign to raise their children sounds nice but again I am skeptical as to the actual amount this means for the beneficiary.

1 month out of 36 = 2.8 % You'll forgive the rest of us if we remain thoroughly unimpressed with this "initiative."


The question is, will the "higher" tax relief offset the financial cost of having 3 or more children?

Nothing personal it's just that it pays to be highly critical and highly skeptical when it comes to Polish government and leadership in ANY form.

Poland is relatively poor compared to the West.

That logic amounts to, "Poles shouldn't breed because they're generally quite poor."

The majority of Poles cannot afford children. It doesn't mean that the majority of Poles would beget criminals if they had children. This sort of attitude is unhelpful, and it betrays a disdain for the Polish populace at large.

And, I'm sorry, but Poland can't afford to wait 50 years to catch up with Western Europe before it starts procreating again. If it waits any longer, it will never catch up because it will be crushed by the burden of an ageing population before it ever gets there.

The fact that people misuse resources provided to them by the State is a fact of life. Let's say the government gave a monthly payment of 1000 zł to every family with 3 or more children. That's 1.7 million families, and would amount to the transfer of about 20 billion złoty a year, or around 30 billion złoty, if you include the likely administrative costs. The current budget deficit is 35 billion złoty, so this hypothetical scenario isn't out of this world.

Now, some people would feel more secure and could afford to have more children and could spend the money on children's clothes, schooling, food, vaccinations, daycare and what-have-you. Great! Some would now be able to afford to spend the money on Playstations, OLED HDTVs and holidays. Great! And yes, it's inevitable that some pathological families might spend it on drugs and alcohol too.

That's the problem with government assistance in general, as 20th century experience has shown. Government assistance is expensive to administer, and it's definitely a blunt instrument with many unforeseen incentives and consequences. But it's an effective instrument nonetheless.

Where such money is spent on luxuries instead of childcare costs, it would still have a positive effect in that having children wouldn't necessarily mean sacrificing one's quality of life. That's all the more reason to have more children if you want them. Even if the money isn't spent on children, it would still be an incentive to have them, which is what the Polish state should be attempting to achieve, since it needs future taxpayers.

As for Russian racism, it's inevitable. Russia is a huge, multicultural country with people of various religions, languages and ethnicities. The Russian government does what it can in russifying them through the promotion of Russian language and culture, but that's a process that takes many generations. And wherever you have multiple races living in one country, you will have racism, be it in Russia, the US, or the UK. It's unfortunate, but the problem can be ameliorated with time.

The government should ban television after 9 pm. People would be at it like rabbits.

And the internet. No DIY distractions.

Very well said. In fact Putin is my favorite top politician because of many reasons including what you just described.

Polands population is about 38,500,000.
The birth rate in Poland is 1.31.
By 2050 the population will be around 34,000,000

If Poland could get ~2.5+ children soon, by 2060 it would reach a population of ~50,000,000 (much better than third world immigrants).
If only it was easier to be influential and somehow make the leaders listen. Really if a Polish politician could do that (regardless of their political side) I would vote for them easily.

Poland should follow Russian way when it comes to family and economy (Russias gdp standing is increasing year after year as well).
And try to follow East Asian attitude as well.


Do you have a source maybe for that? I do recall seeing a map where the booms were happening but I dont remember the website.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Russia_birth_rates_January-October_2012.PNG


Hah. Vladimir Putin reinstated the old Soviet national anthem, but with different lyrics. Probably because, even though it's originally Communist, it sounds really good.

I think the same can be said for the Polish Communist song, "Ukochany kraj" ("Beloved country"). At one point, the lyrics go along the lines of "And our warmest words go out to you, all our hearts and all the strength of our hands, it is all for you, O beautiful country of the People." But it's still a beautiful song.

I`m afraid that much less than that if you assume all current tendencies will remain
and there will be no immigration.Birth rate 1.3 means that population should become
smaller almost halved with each new generation.It something close to 50 years timeframe.
If now Polish population is 38,500,000 it means in 2063 it will be approx. 20 mln.
Especially if to count immigration from Poland.

FWIW: that is called 'emigration'.

I think that those tendencies could be reversed in foreseable future only if farther things will be invented
or implemented:
1)Scientist will invent method to extend human life and youthfulness drastically.In this case there will be
less need for reproduction.
2)Some kind of artificial reproduction will be implemented.For example surrogate mothers in third world
countries will grow european children.
3)Europeans will be obligated to have at least two children by law.And medical comission will check if
they are fertile or not.

Unlikely, but not impossible.


"Growing" European children sounds horrific, as though human beings were a crop. It sounds downright Orwellian. And realistically speaking, it's not going to happen, and money spent on third world surrogate mothers would be better spent on supporting natural mothers at home.


That's extreme and totalitarian.

I think all that is needed is that the government support parents so as to make children an attractive option.

It's no coincidence that Polish women who go abroad often turn into baby factories. Many men and women naturally want children. We don't need to force people to have children. We just need to take care of the things that stop people from fulfilling their natural drive to reproduce.

I didn`t wrote that this is what I personally propose.This is just theoretical assumption.
In which exactly country government support to parents helped increase fertility really much?
Native european population of developed countries principally do not want to reproduce.Economic
methods seem to be almost no use there.And first who will use such social programs will be lowest
shares of society who are not otherwise capable to care about their children and support them.
We need high quality,educated people who will support themself and move countries forward.

Oh, okay, I understand. Well, I hope that's not what happens.


That is true to a degree. There are many people, in Eastern Europe especially, who would have kids if they could, however. I'm for removing barriers and encouraging others to consider it.

And since many Europeans have collectively decided to forego having children, they will either collectively change their minds or face irreversible decline. It's up to them what road they take. And the best government can do is to encourage them in the right direction.


There is some truth in that, but, in Eastern Europe at least, people who cannot afford kids aren't necessarily drug addicts or alcoholics. A lot of them work long hours or can't make ends meet. Communist pro-family policies didn't produce that much pathology.


We need people, educated or uneducated, to have kids. Education is something the State can provide the kids with if they want it. A country can have all the doctors in the world, but if it doesn't have builders, there won't be any hospitals.

Some people need to think up new ideas, and others need to do the heavy lifting to put them into practice. I wouldn't be too prejudiced against the poorly educated. They can be valuable citizens too.

The more technologically advanced society becomes the more educated people we need.Demand for low skilled positions falls every year or is stagnating.They more likely to become drags for society more and more.

Not all people are capable to get degree or want to do it.Children of drug addicts or alcoholics are less likely to do it.That`s obvious.I do not propose to prohibit them to have children but when it comes to stimulation it is quite different.

This is a new phenomenon and is partly related to globalisation and the transfer of production to the Far East. Who knows how long this situation will last? Perhaps it will continue and things will get worse. Or maybe the world will rebalance in the future. I'm not clairvoyant and can't predict how things will pan out.


I agree with you. But drug and alcohol abuse are not limited solely to the lower and middle social strata. And if Poland and other European nations are inevitably going to go extinct, I guess they might as well go out with a bang.

I propose that it's better to try and do something than to sit idly by for fear of unintended consequences. Unintended consequences can at least be reversed in part, whereas if you continue on the road to extinction, you eventually reach a point where there is no turning back.

Probably you mistook Orwell for Aldous Huxley and his ``Brave New World``. But honestly I do not find the world he described a really bad place to live.It may be even better place than our world in some aspects. Though I do not propose to grow people of different quality as he did: such as alphas, betas, epsilones.I`m not against if all new children will be ``alphas`` or at least nobody will grow some mindless biorobots. I think that principally any person or group of people have right to reproduce in any possible way, either natural or artificial.And if they want their children or ``offsprings`` look in some particular way is up to them and nobodies else concern.This is human rights violations in some country that should be concern, not a way of reproduction.

Money stimulos to have children in Eastern European countries most likely will fail as they did in the West.Alcoholics will use most of those funds.

In case you didnt notice Huxleys book was criticism of the 30s.
Some people might enjoy a totalitarian system, where the state or whoever tells everybody what they can and cant do.
But didnt it seem a tad...hmm...bland to you?

You don`t need to have totalitarian system in order to have some kind of artificial reproduction.This is what could be done by private individuals or organisations.For example what prevent some political party in Europe to purchase stem cells from man and woman and hire some surrogate mothers in Third world countries?And after, grow those children in special, highly comfortable boarding schools?At least those children will have some biological parents and could be accepted by them at any time.What is totalitarian here?

Hmm, thats a hard one. Maybe common sense by the voters?