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Sikorski doctrine - Eastern Europe under threat. Poland's foreign policy.


OP Nathan 18 | 1,363
11 Dec 2010  #61
Access to the Caspian Sea is critical for them

Why? What is there they don't already have plenty of??? :))

what does Poland have now that they could possibly want? What could they control?

What did Poland have before? Look, take the US, for example, if you are tired to hear about Russian Federation - they are in Iraq - why? Because of the ``weapons of mass destruction``, right? Afghanistan, why is NATO there? Why was the Soviet Union there for 10 years? Why Americans are wasting billions there and one sees no end whatsoever? Afghanistan is the same as it was in 1960s. You say we are long after the WWII. Are we? It is the same thing as it was before - there is a constant fight for geopolitical control. Iran will soon build its own nuclear weapon and attention of the ``civilized world``might then divert from messing up the Middle East to making sure everything on the Old Continent is properly carved out and loyalties checked. It is natural as history repeats itself over and over.

Given the current political climate

I am not talking about the next year. But it goes in that direction. And make oneself relax in anticipation of peaceful intentions of RF or support of France is ridiculous. Sikorski doctrine takes that precaution and makes Poland more prepared, which is great.

maybe even Russian doesn't mean that you speak Polish

I don`t speak Russian, but I am quite well in Polish :)

My mother-in-law knows and has experienced MUCH more of Polish life than you ever will. Poland can defend itself if it so wishes.

I have never doubted your mother`s-in-law critical analysis of Poland`s defense issues.

I advocate defensive plans, yes. However, I follow rational lines and am not blinded by paranoia.

Glad to hear that. Now, please, quote me on paranoic statements in regards to Polish defense suggestions I made, Seanus. It will be very kind of you.

I've been down that route already :)

I thought you are still married ;)

to have a semi-literal "ham" at the helm

Sasha, I disagree on this one. He is not semi-illiterate (if this is what you meant, although there may be a good pun in ``semi-litteral`` ;). No. He is illiterate and dumb as a wall. It is an offense to all pigs to call this moron a `ham``.

providing I've always wished the best to Ukraine as a state

I wish the best to Russian Federation, especially to its people. But the fact is the fact - your country is not really interested in developing 1/9 th of the world`s land it has, but prefers to mess the livelihood of surrounding states - the Baltics, Ukraine, Belarus`, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbajdzan,...I wish it was a single accident without a pattern, but you know your country`s history I hope to cast off bias a bit and see that what I am saying at least partially is correct. It is your country`s foreign policy and I know that there will be a conflict sooner or later. I warn the Polish people who happen to read this - to think about that, because this is important.

though I haven't been to Canada and that may be the case

What holds you, Sasha? Canada might be a nice experience for you :)

I can fully understand the natural fears of Poles and Ukrainians but their self-proclaimed expertise is laughable.

Where do you see fear? The fact that I prefer peace or at least be fully prepared doesn`t mean that Ukraine or Poland is scared of Russia or any other country. You might occupy an unprepared country, but you will get what NATO faces in Afghanistan, US - in Iraq and Russia - in Chechnia. But it is always better to be ready, Seanus.

They turn sth very simple into a non-stop thesis.

For you everything is clear-cut and simple and your mother-in-law explains geopolitical situations. I see it differently and I see it knowing some of the past and present.

It must grow thin for a Russian such as yourself to have to listen to it.

He is an intelligent guy and he defends his country. It is understandable. I see the threat to the Eastern Europe and importance of Polish-Ukrainian and other neighboring state separate defense system in case where the rest of Europe and the world will flush us down the drain. RF has an advantage of being interested in international conflicts. Poland and Ukraine are interested in business, which is why there may be military disadvantage on our side. But together we easily can fix it. This is no paranoia. This is reasonable and demanding precaution.
Seanus 15 | 19,706
11 Dec 2010  #62
Another member of the Enigma Brigade, ROTFL. It really is VERY simple yet you guys are trying to pretend like it's some uncrackable code to understand Polish fears. It really is the height of arrogance and you ought to be ashamed of yourself. What is there not to understand? Russia has had ambitions on Polish land for a few centuries now but just look at modern reality. Sok, will you take me up on my wager that Russia won't attack Poland in the next 3 years?

Conspiracy theories??? What do you mean? Liberal? Old school liberal maybe, not new school.

Undiscovered? LOL. You are a good joker, Sok.

Look, I'll put it straight. Start asking me questions to test my understanding without presuming what I know or don't know. Otherwise, please refrain from your typically arrogant positions and start refuting what I say with more than empty mud slinging.

Nathan, was that a rhetorical question? Access to the Caspian for pipelines is critical. It is of huge strategic importance.

So, Nathan, let's put you to the sword here. Would you prefer a leader to engage Russia and try and guarantee security like Tusk or Timoshenko? That encourages complacence and Russia can always U-turn. You are big on history, I see, so you will know how little heed some nations, esp Russia, pay to international agreements. Or would you prefer Poland to arm itself to the hilt and throw up all manner of defensive weapons, making Russia suspicious? You saw how provocative Putin was when the missile shield was planned and that after him being guaranteed the right of full inspection. If you think I don't see the potential delicacy of this position, you are sadly mistaken. It could be an intractable, Catch 22 but I don't think Putin has ambitions for Poland, I really don't.

Oh, one more thing. We live in an age of pretexts. What pretext would Russia have for attacking Poland? Please provide just ONE legitimate grounds for this. Thanks!!
David_18 68 | 982
11 Dec 2010  #63
Please provide just ONE legitimate grounds for this. Thanks!!

Greed?
Sasha 2 | 1,083
11 Dec 2010  #64
semi-illiterate

My bad, sorry. Well... I gave him some credit.

It is an offense to all pigs to call this moron a `ham``.

I heard that from a Ukrainian who worked with me. Apparently I mean a Slavic interpretation of the word. Janukovic is said to have that nickname in his youth.

I warn the Polish people who happen to read this - to think about that, because this is important.

Now you're dodging. These are not apparent for every other Russian things you listed I reproach you for. These are bias, double-standards, intentional lie&ignorance, barefaced animocity, I disdain to notice here. Were you a teen, I would write this off for your hormones. You're obviously not...

If you're the product of the SU, then I would say the latter is an evil for a single fact it gave you a rise.

на добраніч!
xzqbq7 2 | 104
11 Dec 2010  #65
Any doctrine created by Mr. Sikorski has to be taken with a lot of skepticism.
OP Nathan 18 | 1,363
11 Dec 2010  #66
You are big on history

I have never said that and I am absolutely not. Just a regular person who doesn`t see flowers in politics like some people around here.

Or would you prefer Poland to arm itself to the hilt and throw up all manner of defensive weapons, making Russia suspicious?

Suspicious of what? To be willing to show that it is well-defended? The problem with those systems was that Americans were to put those on Polish territory. I might see Russians not really keen on that idea - having American weapons at its border. But when you have Poland and Ukraine creating THEIR OWN defense system, RF may be suspicious all it wants.

but I don't think Putin has ambitions for Poland, I really don't.

Listen, we are not on the top of the food chain pyramid. Taking into consideration our location and the neighbor`s multiple signs in history (lots of them recent), it won`t be suprise to see it again. If it wasn`t interested, RF would have spent less time meddling in all the surrounding countries`affairs and fixed on raising the standards of living of its people with all the enourmous natural resources it has. But it clearly doesn`t.

Oh, one more thing. We live in an age of pretexts. What pretext would Russia have for attacking Poland? Please provide just ONE legitimate grounds for this.

I am not Putin. KGB will always find its pretexts. Mind you, in favorable circumstances Europe will show a green light on all the Russian demands in regards to Poland ( I am not talking about Ukraine, it won`t even spit in that direction) as long as it doesn`t concern their delicate well-being. All that said Poland should use all the benefits of cooperation with Germany and other European states for its economic benefits. Without economy - nowhere.

If you're the product of the SU, then I would say the latter is an evil for a single fact it gave you a rise.

Cruel, Sasha. But I am not a product and not of the SU, even though born and lived a while in that totalitaristic slum.
Sleep well too.
Borrka 37 | 594
11 Dec 2010  #67
It really is the height of arrogance and you ought to be ashamed of yourself. What is there not to understand? Russia has had ambitions on Polish land for a few centuries now but just look at modern reality.

No, it's not.
Today, when every German Pedigree pal distributor who has spent a few days in Moscow drinking vodka with hotel call girls, pretends to be expert on Russia, we have to call a spade a spade.

Even a well founded historical knowledge and some personal experience (like in your case) are not enough to say
"Yep. I do understand Russo-Polish-Ukrainian relations".

Look at us - I mostly disagree with Sasha's postings, same goes for Nathan in many cases but there is a strong platform of understanding between us.

Not always friendly understanding, believe me.
And with all respect to you Seanus ... you are outsider in this discussion.
I tell you more - amazing but even my Polish family members from Upper Silesia wouldn't understand it !
They are outsiders as well !

Sounds like mystique to me and arrogant for you but even Polish born Richard Pipes is always a few steps behind me with his political analysis and I don't pretend to be a professional historian - it's all in our veins Seanus LOL.

Okay, I'm not quite serious about Pipes and me - but he is from "Austrian" Cieszyn and I'm Warsaw born.
Sometimes it makes a difference !

BTW. Great postings Nathan !
Seanus 15 | 19,706
11 Dec 2010  #68
I see no flowers either. The disingenuous nature of some politicians precludes that possibility so, sorry, you are again mistaken for your misgivings about me.

It is now not a foregone conclusion that Poland will 'go American' by purchasing their offerings. Besides, as I told you, Russia had the full right of inspection included anyway. Those who know their stuff know that the current capability of Iran to strike Poland is non-existent as their Shahab missiles only reach the border of Romania/Ukraine. So where is the threat, Nathan? If Poland starts beefing up its security, Russia will wonder where the imminent danger is from. Belarus? LOL

You have just tripped yourself up, Nathan. Yes, many Russian villagers are poor. On that, we can agree. Now, do you really think, in your best mind, that Putin gives a hoot about them?? The Russian mafia pumps a heckuva lot back into a narrow sphere of activities and the broader population doesn't really feature in that equation. Or have you forgotten your beloved history of Russia that people perish left, right and centre there without the authorities even batting an eyelid??

Just as I thought, not even an attempt to suggest a hypothetical pretext. David suggested greed above. Stealing what resources, may I ask? Successful companies here in Poland, e.g Isover, rely on Russian gas. I know this first hand from the company. So, I ask you, who has meaningful control over who?

Borrka, your lack of thoroughness leaves you exposed. Let me politely give you a schooling in what you should already know. The removal of Germans under the Aussienliede (correct me if my spelling is wrong, BB) cleared up some space for others to occupy the vacated space. Enter eastern Poles and Ukrainians. Having lived in Silesia for so long yet maintaining contact with their relatives, are they 'outsiders' to as you put it?

It's all in the vain alright ;) ;)
OP Nathan 18 | 1,363
24 Dec 2010  #69
Those who know their stuff know that the current capability of Iran to strike Poland is non-existent

When in the world Iran ever attack Poland??? This is a typical food the Westerners are fed about the Middle East. Look at the US: Iraq is on the opposite side of the world and somehow it was more dangerous than North Korea which is a few thousand kilometers from the US border, but no one attacks them because of the weapons of mass destruction. Danger is not in weapons, but in as*-holes which are after money that can be made on the war: from invasion to rebuilding - billions of dollars.

If Poland starts beefing up its security, Russia will wonder where the imminent danger is from.

I have an idea, because wondering Russia seems to scare you. Here you go: both Poland and Ukraine start beefing up security each claiming that the other is endangering its security. This way we will be beefed up with a good reason for that and Russia would be saved from too much wondering which can be painful on its brain.

Now, do you really think, in your best mind, that Putin gives a hoot about them??

Where did I make even the slightest, tiny-bitiest, micro-nanoniest suggestion towards that? Seani, please, don't invent stuff.

Just as I thought, not even an attempt to suggest a hypothetical pretext. David suggested greed above. Stealing what resources, may I ask? Successful companies here in Poland, e.g Isover, rely on Russian gas. I know this first hand from the company. So, I ask you, who has meaningful control over who?

Why stealing when you can own them? Why have a middleman in form of Poland and waste a huge chunk of revenues when everything may be simplified with a nod of the West?

Having lived in Silesia for so long yet maintaining contact with their relatives, are they 'outsiders' to as you put it?

Seanus, do you really have trouble understanding what Borrka wrote? People might live in one country, but be completely unaware of the problems and the feelings of other countrymen from the opposite end. History may be learnt from books, but being a part of it through your grandparents, parents and oneself will make you much more knowledgeable on the issue than some dude from a far away country who came to live in Poland (even for a decade) even if he is a pro historian and ate all wisdoms. As Borrka said correctly - "it is in our veins" and I completely back that.
convex 20 | 3,978
24 Dec 2010  #70
When in the world Iran ever attack Poland??? This is a typical food the Westerners are fed about the Middle East.

Dunno, but Poland is the only ally of the "Great Satan" with troops stationed in two countries bordering it that is reachable by Fajr and Shahab missiles...
OP Nathan 18 | 1,363
24 Dec 2010  #71
Europe is such a tiny chunk of land that when you begin to threaten Poland, you immediately threaten Iceland. Plus Poland is part of NATO (which wasn't ever really tested to stand for its members) and I don't see any sane reason to go after Poland with rockets flying across: Turkey, Bulgaria, Roumania, Ukraine in order to get to Poland. If the rockets start flying like that, then it is all over, convex.

P.S. It is fun for Great Satan to live on a remote island and meddle into the local affairs putting its allies in a precarious position.
convex 20 | 3,978
24 Dec 2010  #72
P.S. It is fun for Great Satan to live on a remote island and meddle into the local affairs putting its allies in a precarious position.

Interesting, so you do see a threat from Iran based on the decisions that Poland has made in the past...

Turkey, Bulgaria, Roumania, Ukraine in order to get to Poland. If the rockets start flying like that, then it is all over, convex.

MRBMs would travel outside of those countries airspace.
OP Nathan 18 | 1,363
24 Dec 2010  #73
Interesting, so you do see a threat from Iran based on the decisions that Poland has made in the past...

Frankly, I don't, but the way the current politics create threat when it is necessary and against only a certain list of target countries makes me adopt a pinch of this ridiculous reasoning.

MRBMs would travel outside of those countries airspace.

Convex, the US troops which have the most modern weaponry are not able to shoot with precision from a helicopter and as a result kill civilians kilometers away from the target. Do you want to say that along the way of an impossible Iranian rocket's flight over the airspaces of the mentioned countries, the latter would tolerate even a slightest possibility of a hit against their own civilians? I deeply doubt that. Iran would be answered with a unison before Poland will open its eyelids.
convex 20 | 3,978
24 Dec 2010  #74
Frankly, I don't, but the way the current politics create threat when it is necessary and against only a certain list of target countries makes me adopt a pinch of this ridiculous reasoning.

Of course, but the point is that a threat exists, regardless of it was self made by Poland or not.

Convex, the US troops which have the most modern weaponry are not able to shoot with precision from a helicopter and as a result kill civilians kilometers away from the target.

It depends on which weapons systems you're talking about. Fire a cruise missile from a B52 and you'll hit what you want. Same goes for a SLBM from underwater. It will be put on target, it's not particularly difficult to do. A MRBM would go suborbital before leaving Iranian airspace, and come down on its target. If there is an all out war for whatever reason, it will be one of survival for Iran, and I'm sure that behind Israel and US assets in the middle east, Polish allies rank pretty high on the list of targets.
OP Nathan 18 | 1,363
24 Dec 2010  #75
It depends on which weapons systems you're talking about.

I am not in any way an expert on weapons, but from the reports in Iraq war it seems that whatever they use over there is far from being precise. In regards to attacking Poland as an US ally (if there would ever anything like that occur from Iranian initiative, which I doubt very much), don't you think that the first to go would have to be Israel? And do you have to have your own satellite to lead those rockets or these rockets use MapQuest? ;) Iran has nothing in the space as far as I know.

Convex, I completely agree that there is danger everywhere, but for Poland it is highly unlikely to be Iran IMHO.
Seanus 15 | 19,706
25 Dec 2010  #76
Nathan, I don't believe it either, not one bit!! All this nonsense about Iran is just spin! I agree with your first reply.

I've always believed that Ukraine and Poland should work together in a pragmatic way.

I was just saying. Putin is a control freak

Because the nod of the West isn't always a collective nod when it comes to business.

I was just saying, beware of classifications and presumptions. Never assume too much. Plenty here in this region understand the background and also how Russia works.
convex 20 | 3,978
25 Dec 2010  #77
Convex, I completely agree that there is danger everywhere, but for Poland it is highly unlikely to be Iran IMHO.

I mentioned that behind US interests in the region, it would be Israel, and then Poland (with their combat troops deployed in two bordering countries. INS doesn't require satellites. On a side note, Iran has already put a satellite into space, obviously a single bird isn't enough to set up a positioning system, but they have the capability to put things into orbit. I personally don't think that Poland has anything to worry about, BUT, it has put itself into a position of being a more credible threat to Iran (and vice versa) than say Greece or Austria. If I were an Iranian military planner, I would definitely be paying attention to Poland (the missile shield+troops closely deployed+close cooperation between the military of both countries)...
OP Nathan 18 | 1,363
25 Dec 2010  #78
I've always believed that Ukraine and Poland should work together in a pragmatic way.

I know, Seanus. Merry Christmas to you and your family!

I mentioned that behind US interests in the region, it would be Israel, and then Poland .

Agreed.
MediaWatch 10 | 945
25 Dec 2010  #79
I've always believed that Ukraine and Poland should work together in a pragmatic way.

I agree with you and Nathan on this.

Ukraine and Poland should always strive to work together in a pragmatic way. Its nice to see that despite any differences between the countries, overall, Ukraine-Poland relations have been improving in recent years.
OP Nathan 18 | 1,363
25 Dec 2010  #80
Ukraine and Poland should always strive to work together in a pragmatic way. Its nice to see that despite any differences between the countries, overall, Ukraine-Poland relations have been improving in recent years.

Great point, MediaWatch.
Crow 137 | 7,590
25 Dec 2010  #81
when some future Pilsudski arise from the humiliated Polish masses, we Serbs would be ready

only revival of Sarmatia may save us all. Other ideas are just joke. Jokes... if you understand me Poles
MediaWatch 10 | 945
25 Dec 2010  #82
Great point, MediaWatch.

Thanks Nathan.

The way I see it, there is no other choice for Ukraine and Poland, but to work together as best as possible so that this part of the world can feel secure and prosper.

Have a Merry Slavic Christmas.

when some future Pilsudski arise from the humiliated Polish masses, we Serbs would be ready

only revival of Sarmatia may save us all. Other ideas are just joke. Jokes... if you understand me Poles

Crow,

Do you think there is hope for Slavic countries like Serbia, Ukraine, Poland and other Slavic countries all rising together so that Slavic Central and Eastern Europe can be a substantial force in the world?

Also, have a Merry Slavic Christmas.
Bratwurst Boy 5 | 9,718
25 Dec 2010  #83
Do you think there is hope for Slavic countries like Serbia, Ukraine, Poland and other Slavic countries all rising together so that Slavic Central and Eastern Europe can be a substantial force in the world?

Only with Russia! :)
MediaWatch 10 | 945
25 Dec 2010  #84
Do you think they could make an exception..... for one country Russia and replace it with Germany?

:D

Its nothing against Russia, its just that if its a regional thing. Germany is right next to Poland where as Russia isn't, not withstanding Kalingrad.
Bratwurst Boy 5 | 9,718
25 Dec 2010  #85
Heh:)
But then you would have to drop the "slavic" in the union...

Its nothing against Russia, its just that if its a regional thing. Germany is right next to Poland where as Russia isn't, not withstanding Kalingrad.

I agree, but the point in these discussion is mainly the "slavic" part. And you can't really ignore the biggest slavic part in the world, Russia.
MediaWatch 10 | 945
25 Dec 2010  #86
DOHHHHH!!!

MediaWatch:
Its nothing against Russia, its just that if its a regional thing. Germany is right next to Poland where as Russia isn't, not withstanding Kalingrad.

I agree, but the point in these discussion is mainly the "slavic" part. And you can't really ignore the biggest slavic part in the world, Russia.

True.

It would be nice to have the largest Slavic nation in the Slavic Union naturally.

I'm just evaluating different scenarios, all Slavic, all Slavic with Germany, just regional (not necessarily all Slavic) etc.
Lodz_The_Boat 32 | 1,535
25 Dec 2010  #87
Russia and replace it with Germany?

Why are you so much for Germany? ... I dont understand.

We are not anti-Germans ... its just not a fit for a Slavic Union.

I love the Japanese or the Korean ... but how do they fit in a Slavic Union?

I like Indian food, have gr8 Indian friends... friends from Kashmir ... how do their states fit into Slavic Union?

Yes.... Germans with slavic blood is there ... then there are German Slavic children .. they are OUR CHILDREN .... there are children of many kinds of mixes nowadays in Poland ... they are also OUR CHILDREN ... but even they will SHOUT OUT LOUD the name of our Slavic Dream ... and they will work for us and our RISE!

We are to work together with other nations ofcourse ... for common good. But I hope you dont confuse the concept of a SLAVIC UNION.

Oh well ... =D ... I'm not usually in this mode but in anyways ... felt strongly today... although I do everyday and I've worked with Slavs on it, talked with them.. seem the strong wish in their hearts!

IT WILL COME ... SOON.
MediaWatch 10 | 945
25 Dec 2010  #88
Well OK if the Slavic Union is going to be a SLAVIC Union, then naturally Germany can't be part of it and Russia will be.

I was just considering different scenarios of how Poland could be grouped with other countries.

I am for Germany as far as the fact that its a neighbor of Poland and trade is always easiest naturally with your neighbors, since the economic logistics and transportation of goods is easier with Germany then with countries that are farther away, like with Russia.

Could we have a Slavic Alliance but with Germany as the Slavic Alliance's favorite non-Slavic partner? :D
Lodz_The_Boat 32 | 1,535
25 Dec 2010  #89
Seanus ... you are outsider in this discussion.

No ... he is married with a Polish woman. She is our sister and he is not an outsider =) ... he lives in Poland too I guess.

Could we have a Slavic Alliance but with Germany as the Slavic Alliance's favorite non-Slavic partner? :D

you may feel it ... for me the favorite non-slavic partner can be France too. They are nice ppl!

Why so much obession with Germany. OFCOURSE we can work together on matters, but there is nothing special about them. They are there and its all good... fine!

There are nations like China and India who are interesting and growing ...

There are nations like Japan...

USA is there we can work together with too.

In todays world, and as the world progresses, logistics isnt a matter.

Russia has a significant Slavic population, but not all Slavic they are. Infact their Slavs are mixed too mostly ... BUT HEY ITS ALL GOOD ... they are our equally slavic brates =)... thats the beauty of Slavs ...we celebrate our diversity ... our hearts are not like others...
Seanus 15 | 19,706
25 Dec 2010  #90
Merry Xmas to you too, Nathan :) £ódź, I know what Borrka was trying to say but what he didn't mention was that being an 'outsider' means bringing an element of detachment and even perspective to the issue.

As for the Sikorski 'doctrine' (LOL), he needs to change the tune and start coming up with some fresh ideas. The man in Slavic by design only but he doesn't have the know-how of sb like Kwaśniewski.


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