What should Poland do with the problem of Belarus?

The rumour is he was poisoned.

I decided to post an answer to Novichok's comment here in order not to take another thread off topic:


The thing is that even the ethnic Belarusians don't agree on these basic things.
This is a Belarusian flag according to Lukashenko's regime (it is a modification of the 1951 flag used while the country was a republic of the Soviet Union):



And this is a historic Belarusian flag used by Belarusian protestors who are against Lukashenko:





People with Polish roots tend to support the protests against the regime and that's why Lukashenko is persecuting them. It has nothing to do with Poles not integrating enough or not being Belarusian patriots. Quite the opposite.

Also:


I don't understand your beef with Poles living in what is now Belarus, considering that you apparently support people in East of Ukraine staying "RuSSians". Poles in Belarus know and use the official language, while people in those RuSSian-speaking regions of Ukraine didn't even bother to learn Ukrainian.

@Paulina
Cause he is of the opinion that a person is supposed to forsake their roots, language, culture and absorb themselves in to host countries nationality, culture etc. basically pretend to be somebody else then a person is. I have seen this "tactic" and mentality among many Poles in Norway who teach their kids broken Norwegian while being Polish at home and no spoken Polish at home. The kids learn broken language caused by their parents making them not only not learn their original language but, also teaching them a broken language. It is a tragedy and horrible.

That's what people's reality was in pre-internet/satellite TV days. It was very hard for migrants to retain links with their home country, and if there was the Iron Curtain between them and no significant diaspora community in their area, that made it harder yet. People needed to make the best of their new reality rather than dwell in the past.

Now, you can read your home town's newspaper online, chat with friends and old neighbours on Facebook, watch the same TV stations that you did before, and with Ryanair etc, Manchester is nearer to Warsaw than Szczeciń is.

With Belarussians and Poles it's a different issue again, there has always been an overlap and the borders have never been set in stone.

Yes, you leave your home town and country but still remain in the global village. Amasing!

A few months ago I reported Belarusian partisans blow up railways to sabotage military transports. But they have scored a much bigger target - Russian AWACS plane.

Partisans from the "Pieramoha" (Victory) plan confirmed a successful special operation to blow up a rare Russian plane at the airfield in Machulishchy near Minsk. This is the most successful diversion since the beginning of 2022.

Well done.

They were rather Ukrainian commandos.

Nope, they weren`t.

Lukashenko is being treated to a 3 day state visit in China. Even Xi will make himself available. It makes me curious what the Chinese want from the Tractor Man-in-Chief?

Ideas:

1) Consult with Lukashenko on the subject of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine (For what? What does Lukashenko know that the Chinese do not?)

2) To aid Belarus in surviving the current sanctions regime. Belarus is often viewed as China's outpost in Europe, and it may not be in their interest to see him face an unhappy populace.

3) To sign agreements where China will transfer large quantities of weapons to Belarus. In this way China avoids Western criticism for arming Russia, but the net effect is the same.

Of course not. That would be soon discovered and punished by the West with crushing sanctions. Everybody knows Belarus regime closely cooperates with Russia.
China can`t afford it.


You forgot the main reason. The Chinese want to make Putin realise Lukashenka mustn`t be removed coz he is an important asset to China.

I read this often... but I still don't really understand why. Seems like a strange partner, for as large a country as China, to act in the role of "outpost". Why not focus on some kind of Spain or Greece to turn into a puppet? At least they have access to large ports, and are situated on major shipping lanes. Belarus is in the far east corner of Europe, completely landlocked, and run by a man with an IQ of about 80. His neighbors are not exactly influential either, and don't do much trade with China.

I suppose he's the only guy that is willing to spread his legs for the Chinese and that is the only reason. Also, he is a quasi-communist, and maybe this appeals to them too.

P.S. - I forgot that Chinas oldest ally in Europe is Albania, so it's not so unusual for them to ally weird countries that don't seem to represent much.

Because making a NATO member a Chinese puppet would be too costly????? :):):)


Yes, but still major land transport routes from China to Europe go through Belarus. :):):)

run by a man with an IQ of about 80.

Hmmm......... you mean Putin is so easily duped by a confirmed idiot??? :):):)

Belarus is already part of the Union State with Russia, a member of the ODKB, CIS, Customs Union, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It does not seem to bother China, that Belarus has divided loyalties. This tells me that it should not be a problem for China if someone is a member of NATO also. In fact, after some 10 mins of research right now, I learned that China has in fact bought the largest port in Greece (Piraeus). Recently, also, China bought a share of the largest port in Germany - despite protests from Scholz's party. So... this argument of yours does not work.


I think... that Putin allows this idiot to think he duped him, each time, for yet another $10-15B in exchange for promises of integration that he does not plan on following through on. The hope is that at some point we can be rid of this idiot, but that the things he agreed to will have to be honored by the Belarussians. Two years ago we had a chance to get rid of him, but he went full Rambo/Saddam, and the moment was lost.

As for Lukashenko himself, I think his plan seems to be to become president of Russia, and then later for his son to be the next president of Russia. I think this is the whole appeal of the Union State for Lukashenko - that it gives him a path towards becoming leader of Russia. I pray to God this scenario never comes true.

Belarus is basically part of Russia, if they like it or not.
They have no choice.
Unlike the Ukrainians.

Yes, possible, but buying a port still doesn`t turn a country into China`s puppet. :):):) You need to buy the government, other officials and civil servants, parliament members (every 4 years new ones), major businesses etc etc. It would be too costly in a NATO country. Belarus is much cheaper.


You see? How much would China have to spend to pacify those obnoxious opponents???


Right now it is Lukashenka playing with Putin when he refuses to send Belarussian army into Ukraine.

Yeah, but how long can he resist?

This old mustachioed cockroach can last a long time...

But only if he supports Putin.Right?

@Miloslaw

Like I said, it seems his plan is to replace Putin - pulling one of the most epic switcheroos of history (maybe Stalin can compare, or Catherine). I think, like most people, Putin thinks this is hilarious - but is also extremely tired of all of Lukashenko's antics. I really think that the protests in 2021 were Kremlin-engineered. In other words, I don't think Putin is a very big fan of the man.

@Bobko

Interesting stuff.....it is good to have an open minded Russian on this forum.
You can give us insights into Russia and Russians that we don't really get in the mass media.

Nobody should expect immigrants to integrate by my definition. It would be unrealistic and emotionally painful.
The subsequent generations should integrate the way I defined it since they have no reason not to.

I have no idea what "to forsake roots, language, culture" means when living in a country we begged to be allowed in and swore to be loyal to.

As long as he keeps Putin in strong conviction that he is the only politician in Belarus able to persuade Belarussians to accept full integration with Russia. The plans for such an integration after which Belarus is formally incorporated into Russia have been revealed a few days ago.


Of course, coz Luka refuses to obey in certain issues, mainly sending the Belarus army to war. But right now Putin has no better replacement for Lukashenka so he will remain.

The man is a clown, and everyone is tired of his sh!t.

It is strange you are getting so emotional. You are not yourself. I detect some trap here.:):):)

Who are you thinking about. Putin or Lukashenka?

The man perpetuates some crude form of war communism over his people a-lá 1925, and you think I am being emotional? I have more respect for my Belarusian friends than this criminal does.

No, he doesn`t.
Besides.......
Putin perpetuates crude form of stalinism on his subjects, yet you have nothing against. :):):)


You are pretending to be overreacting now. Far more emotionally than you really feel. It is really intriguing. :):):)

I said I think it's bullsh!t. But at the same time I think this is what's inside the brain of tractor man in chief.

@Bobko, I meant that your whole comment #1,549 is bullsh1t. Including this:


As for this:


I doubt it.

I will not debate this lest you accuse of me conspirological type thinking.