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Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland


rychlik 41 | 373
25 May 2010 #1
Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario

By George Friedman

Discussions about Europe currently are focused on the Greek financial crisis and its potential effect on the future of the European Union. Discussions these days involving military matters and Europe appear insignificant and even anachronistic. Certainly, we would agree that the future of the European Union towers over all other considerations at the moment, but we would argue that scenarios for the future of the European Union exist in which military matters are far from archaic.

stratfor.com/weekly/20100524_germany_after_eu_russian_scenario?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=100525&utm_content=readmore&elq=9f3e12cd03ba403c925f6d98971ef72c
Sokrates 8 | 3,346
25 May 2010 #2
Friedman lost all credibility when he started writing about US-Chinese spacewars when China shoots down US liberty stars (or were they combat stars? - anyway according to Friedman US will have these cool space stations and Chinese will shoot them down).

Also his grasp of geopolitics is a bit...shaky.

The Polish air force now flies some of the most modern U.S.-built F-16s in the world; this, plus Patriots, could seriously challenge the Russians

For example this, yeah we're flying epic jets, all 48 of them, how is a single battery of missiles and 48 jets seriously threaten the Russians who have a f*cking milion strong army ???

By a host of processes, a close U.S.-Polish relationship is emerging.

Rubbish, US is milking and shafting Poland.
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,159
25 May 2010 #3
A better Friedman article...
But still, some of his conclusions are again more wishful thinking...still the old cold warrior.

Poland will be part of a future Moscow-Warsaw-Berlin economical axis (as a growing economical power not anylonger playing poodle to Washingtons whims anymore - and that is not what the policy makers there want or need) and there won't be another catastrophical split as in Berlin/Moscow to Warsaw/Washington...those geopolitical strategies are of the past.

The default lines of future conflicts are not in Europe anymore, but in Asia!
Sokrates 8 | 3,346
25 May 2010 #4
He can't decide really, some of his arguments are even better, China has the money to build a focking huge fleet, China builds a focking huge fleet but according to Friedman China will not become a maritime power because Chineese traditionally dont like to sail.

His book about how Poland becomes an uber galactic empire was fun though, i enjoyed the bit with the robot wars.

Not to mention he misses the fact that Poland does not want to fight Germany and while there's no great love for Russian there's no drive to fight it as well.
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,159
25 May 2010 #5
His book about how Poland becomes an uber galactic empire was fun though, i enjoyed the bit with the robot wars.

*grin*
Yeah...he would make a better alternative universe fiction writer if he wouldn't pose himself as serious crystal ball forteller.

Not to mention he misses the fact that Poland does not want to fight Germany and while there's no great love for Russian there's no drive to fight it as well.

*nods*
And if there is a thing Germans have learned is that cheques are more effective than Panzers...
sobieski 107 | 2,128
25 May 2010 #6
Especially when these Patriots which maybe will be coming to Poland are solely for US training purposes without warheads. Anything to appease the Poles, after all in the whole of CEE they are the only country still needing visas to enter the US?

Fine thread though. Any moment I expect somebody to pop up with a posting about "Nazi Ufo's over the Antarctic" or something entertaining like that :)))
Crow 150 | 9,537
25 May 2010 #7
Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario

what i heard, Russian political doctrine seriously thinking of supporting idea of Lusatian independence and Lusatian separation from German state

i am all for that

Slava!

Slava! Justice isn`t blind!
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,159
25 May 2010 #8
Any moment I expect somebody to pop up with a posting about "Nazi Ufo's over the Antarctic" or something entertaining like that :)))

Now that you mention it....there is this new cool movie coming out:
ironsky.net/site

:)

i am all for that....Slavia...

MUDFIGHT!!!
Sokrates 8 | 3,346
25 May 2010 #9
what i heard, Russian political doctrine seriously thinking of supporting idea of Lusatian independence and Lusatian separation from German state

Question is do Lusatians support that?:)

By the way Friedman is a Jew, never trust someone who killed Jesus.
OP rychlik 41 | 373
25 May 2010 #10
His book about how Poland becomes an uber galactic empire was fun though, i enjoyed the bit with the robot wars.

You're making him seem like some nutty science fiction writer. He doesn't claim to know everything about geopolitics and has admitted that he's been wrong in the past. That being said he is an intelligent guy and has an interesting take on the world. He never claimed that Poland would become an uber galactic empire. He simply said that Poland would once again become a regional power, which is not far fetched by any means. They should have been a long time ago and are working towards it. Personally I think Poland will for at least the next 50 years have a relationship with America for strategic purposes no matter what- that being military and technological transfer that will help strengthen it's economy. Now, whether or not there's robotic space wars in the future, I don't care. Look at the technologies that have been invented since WWII. But I am sure Stratfor (his company) is privy to information we are not. And don't forget, you guys don't really know the future geopolitics of Europe either.
Crow 150 | 9,537
25 May 2010 #11
Question is do Lusatians support that?:)

they, their legitimate organizations and intelligentsia calling for Serbian, Czech, Polish and Russian help

Germany supported dissolution of Yugoslavia so i don`t see reason why Serbia wouldn`t support dissolution of Germany.

After all, Lusatia deserve to be free from German occupation
convex 20 | 3,978
25 May 2010 #12
what i heard, Russian political doctrine seriously thinking of supporting idea of Lusatian independence and Lusatian separation from German state

Deal, all towns that are more than 50% Sorb can separate peacefully, no adverse reaction from Germany.
Crow 150 | 9,537
25 May 2010 #13
no. As Serbian Arkan said- `people in Germany should be liberated` and then asked in freedom in democratic environment

youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=b5jw9pbMUeA
convex 20 | 3,978
25 May 2010 #14
Again, absolutely no problem. Just split of the majority Sorbian areas, it's a deal.
Sokrates 8 | 3,346
25 May 2010 #15
You're making him seem like some nutty science fiction writer

Yup.

He doesn't claim to know everything about geopolitics and has admitted that he's been wrong in the past.

He's still an ignorant moron, admitting to it wont change a thing.

That being said he is an intelligent guy and has an interesting take on the world.

Is he? His view of global geopolitics is feckin' shallow for an intelligent guy.

He simply said that Poland would once again become a regional power,

I agree it might, i dont agree that it will happen through alliance with US or that there will be space wars with China.

I think Poland will for at least the next 50 years have a relationship with America for strategic purposes no matter what- that being military and technological transfer that will help strengthen it's economy.

what technology did US transfer to Poland? What military benefits did Poland reap from US?

But I am sure Stratfor (his company) is privy to information we are not.

I'm not, its just a private company not even particulary prominent in US so i doubt he knows more then you or me.

And don't forget, you guys don't really know the future geopolitics of Europe either.

No but i have a helluva more rational assumptions.

Yeah Poland may become a regional power, german population will grow old while russian economy will continue to drown in a shitter so in the end Poland will fill the vacuum but no spacewars, no WW 3, no jedi knights.
sobieski 107 | 2,128
25 May 2010 #16
That is what I adore by this forum. Always some nutcase posting some new utterly wild theory :)
The Sorbs are a small minority in the far east of the old DDR. World domination is not in te planning I guess :)
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,159
25 May 2010 #17
But I am sure Stratfor (his company) is privy to information we are not.

You mean their crystal ball?
There was once an article who posted all the errors in Stratfors foretellings...it had been alot!

Stratfor does nothing else than we here on PF....speculating....who pays them good money for that could give it to us too!
Crow 150 | 9,537
25 May 2010 #18
Again, absolutely no problem. Just split of the majority Sorbian areas, it's a deal.

complete Eastern Germany (minimum) are just forcible germanized Slavs. In perfect situation, if war hostilities occur between Russia and Germany in future, Russia could simple declare that battle with Germany in order to liberate all germanized Slavs. Russia could seek to establish freedom, democracy and restoration of human rights of people in Germany. It could be considered as historical justice and Russia would be morally right. Especially if we have in mind recent development, that Germany violated international law and treaties when violated Yugoslav and Serbian sovereignty
OP rychlik 41 | 373
25 May 2010 #19
Yeah Poland may become a regional power, german population will grow old while russian economy will continue to drown in a shitter so in the end Poland will fill the vacuum but no spacewars, no WW 3, no jedi knights.

That I can agree with :)
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,159
25 May 2010 #20
In perfect situation, if war hostilities occur between Russia and Germany in future

That is a "perfect future" for you Crow?
Some more millions dead and Europe again destroyed???

...you are really a poor sod, aren't you...
Sokrates 8 | 3,346
25 May 2010 #21
That I can agree with :)

Notice the 'may' bit, there's also a possibility that bankrupt Germany will bankrupt Europe and we're the closest neighbour to be affected since we dont have $$$ to cushion the fall like France has.
Crow 150 | 9,537
25 May 2010 #22
Some more millions dead and Europe again destroyed???

tell that to the German government that is irresponsible terrorist organization and that likes to provoke.

You know what happened to the arch and A-H after they provoked last time. Don`t complaint later

...you are really a poor sod, aren't you...

go cry to your mama
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,159
25 May 2010 #23
german population will grow old

We will breed our offspring artifically soon...with high tech made in Germany, ha! :):):)

tell that to the German government that is irresponsible terrorist organization and that likes to provoke.

Erm...last I looked the Slavs suffered the most and the longest (around 30 million dead, opressed for more than 50 years)...you don't seem to love your people as much as you claim all the time!

go cry to your mama

Heh:)

Isn't it YOU whining and crying all the time about "poor, so unfairly mistreated Serbia" by the mean powers of this world, like super strong, allmighty Germany??? ROFLMAO

What will you do if there will be an economical axis developing soon spanning from Moscow, over Warsaw to Berlin? Nobody wasting a thought on the serbian/balkan basket case anymore???

More crying and whining from you?
Crow 150 | 9,537
25 May 2010 #24
Erm...last I looked the Slavs suffered the most and the longest...you don't seem to love your people as much as you claim all the time!

First line of Slavija- the Serbians, paid biggest price. Just in a WWI, 1/3 of entire population of Balkan Serbs was killed. Price was paid, indeed. Freedom is precious thing

But, main invasion was repelled and Slavs got opportunity to consolidate

german

Expansion and retreat of German linguistic area
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,159
25 May 2010 #25
But, main invasion was repelled and Slavs got opportunity to consolidate

Heh:)
I wonder why they are laughing at you with your dream of "Slavija"...

Freedom is precious thing

Well, you have your freedom now...much smaller, cut to size...but still...

PS: And German is still the most widely spoken language in Europe...Serbian on the other hand...;)
Crow 150 | 9,537
25 May 2010 #26
PS: And German is still the most widely spoken language in Europe...Serbian on the other hand...;)

Serbian songs spread all over former Yugoslavia, Balkan, all over Central and Eastern Europe, even further. German songs? i would say, German language and songs are quite awfully to the most of Europeans.

Goran Bregovic in the Eurovision Song Contest 2008
...

Heh:)
I wonder why they are laughing at you with your dream of "Slavija"...

yes, Germany and her friends ridiculed ideas of larger Slavic conglomerates. But, its only temporary situation

Anyway, that how Serbs ridiculed Austro-Hungaria, THAT was real ridiculing

last word of archduke was just EAK (similar to the sound when one brake the neck of the cat)

ell, you have your freedom now...much smaller, cut to size...but still...

well, true, it was wild sex. But, party didn`t even started

;)
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,159
25 May 2010 #27
yes, Germany and her friends ridiculed ideas of larger Slavic conglomerates. But, its only temporary situation

Rofl...I'm not talking about Germanics laughing at you (that is a given), as it is not us you need to convince.
Your people (remember, those with whose you want to build an empire with) are doing it. It's only you and a few fellow nutters in your mommies basement.

But, party didn`t even started

Well, for you it's over...you have nothing to barter with anylonger....no power, no military, no economy, no money - nothing!
Crow 150 | 9,537
25 May 2010 #28
I'm not talking about Germanics laughing at you (that is a given), as it is not us you need to convince.

Its just an illusion. Give time to the Slavs in the region

Well, for you it's over...you have nothing to barter with anylonger....no power, no military, no economy, no money - nothing!

another illusion. Serbs have big di**
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,159
25 May 2010 #29
Serbs have big di**

...and a brain the size of a nut!
Crow 150 | 9,537
25 May 2010 #30
whatever

Eurovision on TV! Slovakia right now. i go

pozdrav!

Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario

to tell you frankly, i don`t see Germany. Russia would be fine then

but i see how Poland expand on the behalf of peace in Europe and even world


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