Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland

[moved from]
I am wondering how Poland (and others) will react when Merkel will reduce EU's funds;). Let's see what Poland (and others) will do! ;););). Like said in America 'money talks" .....

When EU starts with economic pressure on Poland, it would be sign for Poland to turn its regional partners and to the East. After all, EU sanctions on Russia were among else designed to harm Poland.

Poland's biggest trading partner is Germany though - 26% of Polish exports according to the source below. Hopefully they'll form better relations with the Visegard 4, Serbia, Russia, and the rest of Europe.

worldsrichestcountries.com/top_poland_exporters_trade_partners.html

The sanctions hurt Poland a bit since 5% of Polish exports go to Russia so it is several billion dollars that got affected. However, it's not like Poland would collapse because they couldn't export to Russia. Yes, it hurt a little but it's not like total devastation of the economy because of Russian sanctions.

oh, no problem with that. Germany is for Serbia main trading partner, too. But, it has its price. We have deals that involves third sides. Germans learned it. They try to blackmail Serbia, they losing access to resources of former SU and affect their relations with China. No sh** anymore. What is enough is enough. Its war out there.


Exactly. Just, Poland, if play wisely with Serbia, even don`t need to deal with Russia directly (if that is problem for Polish diaspora or anybody in Poland). Everything with Russia, Poland can finish via Serbia, with strongest guaranties. So, Visegrad and Serbia- that should be focus of Poland`s foreign policy if Poland wants to be proud, independent and sovereign country. Then, Poland should open itself for investors from allover the world, all equal under the law of Poland.

But, in any case, why would Poland refrain itself from normal relations with Russia? It would be alright, too. Even Vatican solving its issues with Russia.

We Serbians don`t accept situation that is Poland hostage of some people who have problems with Russia. They have problem with Russians, they should deal with Russia but not via heads of Poles. That would stop, too.

See Poland is a bad geopolitical spot. Poland has a long, complicated history with Russia which has included dozens of wars throughout the centuries. Poland just got out of Russian communist rule - even when I was living in Poland it was still Communist. (Quite frankly, we had it very good under Communism and never lacked for anything. If anything, life for us was more difficult in the years after Communist but that's beside the point.) Poland is weary of Germany also, because like Russia it has had many wars throughout history.

After the USSR collapsed and Poland was no longer a satellite nation, it chose to ally with NATO. Then Poland joined the EU. So Poland is now allied with the same neighbor that invaded it just 70 some years ago and the same countries that promised to help Poland but did next to nothing. This was smart at first because Poland needed new trading partners now that the USSR was dissolved and sought military allies so it kind of made sense. They basically picked the lesser of 2 evils. However, now Poland is a very wealthy nation - the 21st largest economy by GDP worth over $1 trillion. Yes, the EU helped with it a lot but Poland gave up a lot of it's political decisions and sovereignty in return for EU funds. Now Poland has to decide whether to continue to give into the EU's demands or forge it's own path. I don't think that Poland will totally back out of the EU because of all the trade with EU countries. I'd like to see Poland form stronger economic, political, and military ties with the Visegard 4, Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, Ukraine, the Baltic states, and even perhaps Russia. Poland ought to focus more on its neighbors, especially those that are resisting EU hegemony. There's a lot of potential with trade between Poland and Russia especially with the sanctions. However, I feel that the EU would prevent Poland from taking advantage of the situation. The EU really has Poland by the balls but the governments of Poland, the Visegrad 4, and Russia are realizing that the EU, France, and Germany are in decline - especially because of this whole migrant mess.

Germany, France, and Belgium can't even protect their borders and their citizens anymore yet they dictate to Poland and the Visegard 4 what they should and shouldn't do.

As i already said somewhere here, Poland`s politics needs to have two single circles of interests. In first circle, Poland should have focus on Visegrad 4 and few countries that are of ultimate strategic importance. Right now most easier would be to focus on Serbia and Slovenia. Situation with Croatia, Ukraine and Baltics is much more complicated. In Croatia, Poland have to compete with Germany. Its traditional Germanic bastion, where is even given quite resistance to Serbian influence (no matter that when we speak of Serbs and Croats, we speak of one and same people that speak same language but Germanized elite of society forcing loyalty to Germany and impose its rules to Catholic and Orthodox Serbs). Considering that ruling elite of Croatia manipulate with Catholicism for its aims, right now (you can google about it), Pope and Vatican have great problems with Croatia where Vatican openly intervened to removing priests and bishops in attempt to stabilize situation and directly giving order how should be worked with populations. What i want to tell you, Croatia as territory is for sure very interesting for Poland because of Adriatic but, its the most complicated to insert Polish influence, in situation when even Vatican compete with Germany for influence and together with it you have that constant struggle for unity of all Serbians no matter are they of Catholic or Orthodox fate and even Muslims (if we include Bosnia and Herzegovina). Good news for Poland is that Vatican and Serbia and Serbs in general now don`t see each others as obstacle and opposition but rather as true partners. If we add to it that Vatican and Russia hurry to solve their historical misunderstandings then all that promising removal of German influence and opening of space for Poland in the region (Russian influence here should not worry you because Serbian factor always well balanced Polish-Russian interests and regions controlled by Serbians always belonged in realm of Polish Kings, even officially). In Ukraine, Poland must wait that native people there agree on new borders between them. Ukrainians, Russians and Ruthenians. Then, Poland itself have to rise issue on its historical rights there, if that prove to be possible. Anyway, when new states are formed from what is now Ukraine, Poland needs to look to insert her influence. As in previous example of Croatia, good Vatican-Russia relations would be important factor in consolidation of Polish influence in the region. On Baltics,... well, very fragile situation, i would say. From all complicated but unavoidable issues, i would suggest that Poland first focus itself on Serbian-Croatian Adriatic question, then Ukraine and just then on Baltics. Alliances (cooperation) forged with big powers such are Vatican and Russia in solving issues on Adriatic and in Ukraine would prove to be vital for Baltics, too.

Merged: What should Poland do in case that EU disintegrate ?

I was reading article by Noam Chomski from which we see that he losing confidence in EU`s competence and functioning. In any case, what crossed my mind, we talk about Polexit but what should Poland do if EU itself disintegrate while Poland is still part of EU.

article >

Source: Is European Integration Unraveling?
chomsky.info/01252016-2/

The EU as we know it will be gone within the next 10 years, I believe. It will turn into an economic (and maybe political) union of a handful of core member states - most likely Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria and Luxembourg, and maybe Denmark and Sweden. If Poland has developed sufficiently by then, maybe it will be asked to join. A new core union will certainly not make the same mistake again and admit any potential net recipients of funds and/or member states that are overly nationalistic and /or obstructive.

In 10 years Serbia would be among strongest economies in Europe but neither would be asked, neither would desire to join in it.

My point is, what would Poland seek to found among, as you said: ``Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria and Luxembourg, and maybe Denmark and Sweden``? Assimilation? Equality? Resources?

Prosperity and security for example? Germany and France are both global economic powerhouses, and France is also a nuclear power.

Prosperity is alright reason, i suppose. Security is questionable. Who knows what would powers of that ``union`` desire, outside and inside. Plus, Poles won`t get equality but assimilation. Sure, Poland can give resources. They would love it.

One more very good article of Noam Chomsky. Title of article tells it all

"Right-wing, anti-establishment sentiments - end of EU" > b92/eng/news/world.php?yyyy=2016&mm=12&dd=01&nav_id=99842

Good!


WTF are you talking about? The main problem of the EU is fact that it has no clear structure or a clear path, or aims. It's supposedly like a buffet everyone can pick up what suite them the best and such a arrangement it's supposedly beneficial for everyone. That is clearly a propaganda that have been sold to the public.

Sure think there are those sectors and people who greatly benefit from the EU, but.. its ain't everyone not even majority that benefits from those arrangements.

The EU supposed to be a big economical zone so big that would be able to compete with China, USA and other zones. That supposed to be an European answer to globalisation. That clearly isn't the case.

The only advantage for them was a fact that EU expansion prevented creation of competitive economies that would arise in the freed of the communist occupation eastern European countries

The EU is BS organization where big corporations and financial banking system have a free rein to explore and profit. Those firms are working hand in hand with their national governments. In other words western European countries used their economical advantage to exploit economically weaker members, admittance of post-communist countries has given them bust and upset balance that existed between north and south of the original EU, hence Greek crisis, Italy is in line and Spain as well.

Talk about further integration is another BS. What integration? If they're talking about federal state - there should be federal structures and federal powers and federal laws but first of all there should be economical interaction - all state debts should be taken over by the federal government.

There is noting of the kind. Germany dominated EU and its national interests dictate EU policies. That is BS not EU.

As for those famous founds, that is kind of a bribe to the circles and some people to advocate for EU. In term of the real effect on a country that is a ripest of the those fund there is no such a clear cut benefits. Like so far Poland got 90cents per head. F... fortune!

The only other issue that EU supported with (money) and political pressure is a neo-Marxist ideology. Those hare-brained ideas of the regressive left! Wow! To have that c...b working you need a welfare state and/or a very rich economy otherwise it automatically goes into a oppressive regime mode because that is such a c.. that it cannot function properly otherwise.

---------------


Poland in that circumstances would build her own regional alliance and collaboration between states that have much more of a common ground, common problems and common interests than with any other countries on the continent.

Germany with their concept of their dominance over the Middle Europa as they call it and can go f...themselves pink! Bloody Borg.

with whom?

I agree. The main problem for the EU is that it grew too fast and that it introduced the common currency. Instead of making sure that new members were actually ready to join, they invited everyone in for political reasons. Will come back to bite them very soon.


The east European countries were run down to such an extent that no one could rescue them economically. Remember the old GDR? They still haven't caught up even though billions of DM and EUR were pumped into its economy over the past 27 years. In my opinion, Poland wouldn't have stood a chance to create a competitive economy without the help of the EU.

With whom and how?


Mistake. Serbia creating competitive economy without EU help. Even with obstacles from EU.

That is a common misconception and a myth. Poland didn't need rescuing. What she lacked was an elite capable of solving problems. What Poland got was soviet scum and soviet political police posed for a quick buck.

-----


Yes, I know your opinion. You're wrong.
----


Whoever is around in the area and whoever wants to.

True, the Euro is a 1980's solution imposed when there was no need for it anymore. The limited benefits don't make up for the downsides (like that fact that in it's current form it's not a true currency but a loanshark scheme)

Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria and Luxembourg, and maybe Denmark and Sweden?

True in 1989.... 2004? Not so much. The best deal that Poland got from joining the EU was being to export much of its unemployed population. EU grants tend to come with lots of strings and bureaucracy and are mostly cosmetic. Getting a few million people into jobs (even if not in Poland) was a very good thing for Poland (maybe not as much for the UK Ireland etc

Well guys, if the PEGIDA, or more likely the AfD, is swept into office come end of next year, this'll be the ultimate game changer now, won't it?

Heck, this Sunday, according to the US press anyway, Freedom Partier Horbert Hofer will be the people's choice in Austria:-))

Come on, Ironside. I've seen with my own eyes how some of the so-called "worker's paradises" looked after 1989. The GDR for example was considered one of the most industrialized and advanced countries of the COMECON, but when people started to take a look behind the scenes in 1990 there was pretty much nothing there in terms of modern, competitive products. Robotron, the pride of the GDR ... a sad joke on the international market. Poland's ship building industry went through several phases of restructuring attempts, which failed miserably between 2000 and 2002, if I recall correctly. Brown coal? Forget it. The commie industries were simply not able to compete with their western counterparts.


Tell me why. Unemployment in Poland was sky-high at that time (the unemployment rate was at 20.70 percent in February 2003!). Without your country being able to export its unemployment (not to forget: the looming pension crisis), you would've sunk like a stone.


Access to the common market and related foreign investments don't count?

So? What have you seen? Why would that matter? You're confusing the look of the cover of a box and it's content.
-----


We're talking about Poland.
------------


That was actually due to the government obstinacy.
We're not talking about what had happened but we're talking about potential and that potential was great. Poland has few advanced and competitive and advanced and the lest of it agriculture in private hands.

I say that all went to waste due to poor management, opening market for foreign products, and surrendering strategic national industries like banking and media ( for example) to the foreign capital.

Since early 90' Poland had been implementing all BS polices that the EU liked to impose on Poland. That impeded Polish economy big time too.
-----


Where? On African, Asian, south American markets? You wanna bet?
Admittedly some large chunk of steal and coal industry that have been feeding Soviet war machine, producing parts for tanks and navy had been pretty much for scrap but not all of it and defiantly not all industry.

Some restructuration should follow. First private property should be given back to the rightful owners. Government should focus on building up infrastructure instead of neglecting it.

Do you really think that all catering services or some services really needed foreign investments to develop? Really?
----


I told you why. Potential had been wasted by polish soviets and their secret police cronies, corruption and general sh'tty state of the society in Poland after 50 years of the Soviet occupation and hecatomb of the WWIi.

It doesn't mean it didn't exist in the first place.
---


I think that would be good. People would move out of their stupor and hang few swine's and that change would be much better for Poland that what has followed. In my opinion.

----


Don't count for much if all you can sell is ore or some food produced mostly by foreign own agriculture companies. Investments in what? Supermarkets that eliminate from the market nine out of ten shops owners, and which are avoiding paying taxes.

Are you talking about hotels that are caterings for foreign visitors to transfer their profits abroad the same goes for banking sectors. Maybe for a fact that 85% of the press belong to the German owners and in this way German make an impact on the political processes in Poland?

I see you are not talking anymore about EU founding that so far amounts to about 90 cent per head.

That's what you think. I was working for several non-European clients at that time who wanted to "open" the markets in the east, and I traveled extensively across the whole area - including the GDR, Poland, Hungary and the ČSSR. None of these countries (or their industries, for that matter) were even remotely prepared to cooperate or compete with the west. None of them.


Not much, that was the problem.


I agree, but what do you expect in an ex "socialist" country, Iron? Managers who understood how the west "ticked" were a rarity. Most had no clue what predatory capitalism really is, and that's how they all got shortchanged in the end.


Yes. I only mentioned the GDR because its industrial base was further developed than Poland's. If not even the GDR was able to compete, what do you think Poland's chances would've been?


Software industry, call centers, car manufacturing, financial institutions, grocery shops ... you name it. These foreign investors created much needed jobs. Regarding the transfer of profits, that's just how the system works. No company reinvests 100% of its profits in the same place. Despite: foreign companies don't have a monopoly. Where are the Polish competitors?

Poland has been allocated EUR 86 billion from ESI Funds over the period 2014-2020. With a national contribution of EUR 18.8 billion, Poland has a total budget of EUR 104.8 billion to be invested in various areas. Lets just start to understand the majority of these structural funds is funded by British, French and German tax payers. Poland have had an amazing deal from Brussels, which accelerated Polands rank to 20th worldwide in terms of GDP and classified as high-income economy by World Bank. The largest component of its economy is the service sector (62.3.%), followed by industry (34.2%) and agriculture (3.5%). With the economic reform of 1989 the Polish external debt increased from $42.2 billion in 1989 to $365.2 billion in 2014. Poland shipped US$198.2 billion worth of goods around the globe in 2015, up by 5.4% since 2011 and down 7.6% from 2014 to 2015. The top Poland exports include machinery, electronic equipment, vehicles, furniture, and plastics..

They count but there can only be one 'best' or 'most' and what benefitted Poland most was access to foreign labor markets.

Poland with the investment and EU payments but with al the un(der)employed still in Poland is worse than Poland without the investment and payments with the unemployed in the labor markets of the UK, Germany, Norway etc

Having both is nicer, of course.

It's either EU funds plus free movement, or no EU cash and Poles going home. Let's see what will happen after BREXIT. May will hopefully allow the Poles to stay in the country, but there's a lot of resistance against that from what I hear, so I wouldn't bet on it.

Will the British public enjoy the middle easterners, sub-saharan africans and pakistanis she will bring in to take their place? Don't Polish migrants have better employment and lower crime rates than any of those groups?

********, there is overwhelng consensus that EU migrants will be allowed to stay.

That's Commonwealth citizens for you... :)


Well, one would certainly hope so, but your politicians are somewhat contradicting themselves here:

"There are around 3.6 million EU citizens living in the UK, more than 80 per cent of whom will have permanent residency rights by the time Britain leaves the union."

"Theresa May, the Prime Minister, has refused to guarantee the rights of EU citizens currently living in the UK..."

"Another Cabinet source said: "They will be allowed to remain in Britain. But it is important that reciprocal agreements are made with the EU to ensure that British people abroad get the same rights."

"Liam Fox, the International Trade Secretary, was criticised this week after saying that the status of EU nationals living in Britain is "one of our main cards" in the Brexit negotiations and cannot be guaranteed."

telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/07/every-eu-migrant-can-stay-after-brexit-600000-will-be-given-amne

Not to mention the UKIP folks and/or the readers of the Daily Hail who are not particularly excited about letting Poles and east Europeans stay...