Why should Poland consider pursuing a strategic alliance with Russia?

Torq, is there something I don't know?
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@Torq

A curse indeed! I'll be back in Poznań Friday.

Our wives should start a support group: wives whose husbands have imaginary friends from foreign lands....or WWHHIFFFL for short.

A whole lot of things.

However, Jon was talking nonsense here. The only Africa that I have family in is my wife's hometown of Mława; a word of warning: don't ever go there in the summer - it's scorching hot and not even the slightest breeze, a nightmare for a Danziger.


Dammit! :(


They will if we don't finally meet!

Double dammit! I thought this was going to be the year.

Do you believe that the current usury and fiat-money-based economic system is sustainable? If not, what will have real value when it falls?

Why are you so adamant in rejecting even a possibility of such alliance if the EU seems to be willing to slaughter Polish energy sector (Green Order), industry (high cost of green transformation) and farming (Mercosur deal)? Not to even mention such a "tiny" problem like the forced redistribution of migrants.

Is such rigid, dogmatic rejection of one of possible options for Poland really reasonable? Food for thought.

And some Poles still think that the EU is an epitome of "freedom and democracy"...hahahahahahahahaha...How about USSR-light...See the freedom of speech in UK and Germany...

Soviet Union also had reasons why their concept of freedom of speech had asterisks...

It has been for a long time.


Gold is always good.

Beware of 'cryptocurrency¡. It has no intrinsic value and is pushed by scammers.

I'm aware that you are a prick; no need to demonstrate it so openly.
I'm asking about your skin color. Jon claims you came from Africa. Unless he refers to outdated evolution theory. In that case, it is a sad day for Jon, who can't keep up with the scientific world.

trzeba zyc uri trzeba zyc youtube.com/watch?v=-FYmhlX16VQ

to sie pale nie mieszi! youtube.com/watch?v=c6jd1ppJ7xM

We all do, ultimately. All our ancestors do.

And all our ancestors before that were things that looked a bit like a beaver (like you still do) and before that a sort of amphibian.

.
Palę pałkę lalko!

bro.. this polak nigg*a language all the same to me. i'm bored like all of england is.

i'll do this i'll do that. i'll swing black i'll turn right.

pretty much i don't care and they'll will especially hate me when i come to poland.

especially thatcheritite pommies. maybe they'll learn a real anarchist immigrant.

We all hate those.


If it's over the next month, hit me up.

yes we do my brother.

will do.

...


Everybody loves each other on PF - in the end. What a strange place!

I would never think Jon357 and Amiga500 would want to hang out with each other, but here we are...

A model for the rest of the world - tearing itself apart by left/right axis, or through whatever other bent.

--///--

Seeing Richard's post on Adrian, I decided to go back to Polanda and read some of his old posts. He wrote a lot - and on a lot of different topics. Then I decided to go back to the very first "Polish Aid to Ukraine if Russia Invades" thread, and see who was writing what in March and April of 2022.

It was actually not as bad as I thought. Of course, there were posts like this one from Maf (made on April 15th, 2022)

"Time is on Ukraine's side... The Russian army is facing collapse and won't really be able to fight by June or so at the latest..."

To be honest, though, I wrote some pretty stupid posts as well back then.

It's glorious of course to see PAK still in his full "HAPPY GULAG *******" mode. Kania is actually staunchly pro-Ukrainian at the start of the conflict as well, but you can see his views drifting closer to May-June.

Jon is obsessed with Kadyrov, and wants to hang every Chechen from a lamppost or strangulate them with piano wire.

Velund is consistent - in that he neither hates Ukrainians nor wanted this war to begin with. He seems actually a bit less of a war hawk than me, in those first months.

Atch wrote from a surprisingly sober perspective, given the excitement at the time (24th February, 2022):

"Would everybody please stop sounding so delighted at the prospect of going to war with Russia. World War Three may be unavoidable but it's not a cause for celebration."

AntV wins the award for the most clear-eyed post (from a person that was always neutral):

"I'm not so sure, fellas.

Emotions are running high right now, so all this talk of independence from Russia energy and significant increases in military spending, etc still have yet to meet the realities of time. Let's not get ahead of ourselves."

Novichok is of course the champion. He never wavered - not one single day. From 24 February, 2024 - he was solid in insisting that Ukraine will never return Crimea, and would never reoccupy the Donbass.

Yes. Even in this lamentably post-Christian world the shards of Christian spirit remain, and PF is one such shard.

Or maybe we simply spent too many years with one another. You can only realistically hate somebody for a year, maybe two if you're good at it, but if you keep talking to people longer than that, you will find decent souls behind the flaws.

It's like in arranged marriages - love eventually comes. :)

I was young and dumb then and didn't realize that for the russian government human life has no value whatsoever.... I know better now.

I have no idea how it will end but it's already done massive damage to Ukraine and arguably even worse damage to russia - which seems more and more like a death cult....

Not even your god-king tsar can explain what he's trying to accomplish and has long ago stopped even trying... your own explanations - nonsense about russia's place in the sun made minus sense.

What's the russian goal now? How many lives is that worth?

My theory is that they are trying to inflict maximum possible losses on the Ukrainians. They have immense advantage in firepower, deadly in positional war.

When they decide that they "softened" Ukrainian defenses enough, they will start the offensive (probably with the help of North Korean cannon fodder).

Just a theory.

I think the goal is to fix in place a Western defeat.

Not demilitarization. Not denazification. But just the fact of a Western defeat.

If Ukraine is left without 20% of its initial territory, following a negotiated ceasefire - that would amount to a Western defeat - no matter what anybody else says to the contrary.

Biden's moving of goalposts to "Well, we had prevented a full takeover of Ukraine, and that's a great victory indeed" - is total bullsh*t.

He promised that Putin would be in a cage. He said the "Rouble is Rubble". He said Russia would be more isolated than the worst pariah regimes.

That doesn't sound like Russia getting to keep a territory the size of Greece, or three Switzerlands.

--//--

Why is it important to "fix" a Western defeat in fact? Because everyone is tired of it, but still somewhat afraid that it has some single flex left - which could set us up for a further 50 years of Western domination.

If the West is seen to have lost, after it threw everything including the kitchen sink at Russia - then that is a powerful signal to everyone else. To China. To India. To Brazil - that it is possible to ignore the West and overcome it.

This will accrue to us in myriad ways, from prospective alliances, to arms sales, to increased trade - as people learn not to fear Western sanctions and Western militaries.

If we lose - then it's a chilling message to everyone else. If Russia could not resist - how can we hope to resist?

Esp civilians.... like a said, a death cult.... no pretense that anything worthwhile is being accomplished, just death...

And you wonder why I despise the russian socio-political system?

Certainly not.

Then why have they targeted so many civilian locations? They haven't had so much success because of Ukrainian alerts and air defenses but surely Bucha should have been a clue as to their goals...

Not to mention this oldie but goodie...

x.com/ne_vluchiv/status/1877711234922865117/video/1

This is tactical/operational - while the strategic goal is to demonstrate Western impotence.

Killing the maximum possible number of AFU servicemen is unfortunately the only logical way of waging the war at this point. This is because Ukraine has catastrophic issues with mobilizing new forces - so every brigade removed from the map represents a permanent reduction in their combat potential.

Holes are opening in the front. Some Ukrainian officers complain they are asked to maintain 5 km stretches of the "zero line" with 10-12 men.

Still, Ukraine has new and deep lines of fortifications it has erected 40-50 kilometers behind the current lines. Those lines are much straighter, and thus easier to defend. They are finally building them properly, in the way the Russians built theirs to stop the 2023 Summer Offensive.

That is, I'm not sure you can simply kill your way through this war. "Kill Counts" didn't win America Vietnam, and it didn't stop the Taliban. Granted - Vietnam and Afghanistan had infinitely healthier demographics.

What needs to happen is either:

1) Electronic warfare systems make a further leap in efficiency, and once again clear the skies of drones. Current systems are unable to disrupt fiber optic drones, or drones that rapidly hop frequencies, or drones employing neural networks to autonomously acquire targets.

2) We figure out some way to reliably find and kill drone operators. There's much progress in this direction. Over the past 6 months, hundreds of Ukrainian drone operator crews have been destroyed. But it's hard work, and requires creative thinking and constant innovation.

If you can't clear the skies of drones, strategic offensives are extremely difficult to pull off. Maybe inpossible. Only slow, incremental gains are possible.

Americans are currently experimenting with microwave weapons, which can down hundreds of drones simultaneously by frying their internal components. Maybe this will be the key.

A video I think worth sharing in relation with the topic in this thread:

Truly an admirable and ambitious goal.

One thing that your strategists should notice, though, is that the West hasn't really arrived in this war yet.

Europe has emptied itself of weapons. That's already a defeat - without even putting a single soldier in the field.

America's Pentagon planners are stopping weapons shipments without consulting with Trump and Rubio, because they are worried that "stocks are running dangerously low".

Russia has successfully absorbed a sizable portion of the collective West's weapon stocks. If in the beginning it was legacy systems like artillery guns and tanks, then over the past two years it has been state of the art equipment - that in many cases even America's allies don't possess.

When the West arrives, what will it fight with, if we rule out nuclear weapons?

Where are the tanks? Where are the shells? Where are the men (Starmer and Macron could not put together a force of 12,000)?

You gonna fight with a naked ass? No. You need at least 4-5 years to get into fighting shape. That's why I say "impotence".

:)

Both you and I know the value of propaganda, it is immense.

One shouldn't, however, make a schoolboy mistake of believing his own propaganda.

... and if the war ends soon, but Europe is only ready to fight in 4-5 years: can you imagine where Russia would be by that point in time?

If we start reconstituting the army in 2026, by 2030 it will be in a much scarier shape than it was in 2022.

If Trump removes sanctions on us, as a reward for ending the war, then China will no longer be limited in assisting Russia's military industrial complex in retooling and expanding.

The way our economy is structured now, Putin will not be able to rapidly decrease military spending without causing a nasty recession - so the factories will continue to receive hundreds of billions of dollars.

We are currently investing billions into expanding North Korea's industrial capabilities. Their war machine works almost exclusively to our benefit.

We will be able to recruit hundreds of thousands of Cubans, Angolans, Nepalis, Ethiopians, Nicaraguans, etc.

Already today, I read a report where our Minister of Labor was telling Putin we will need 11 million additional citizens by 2030 if we are to deliver on various promises. This can only mean that Putin will have to open the immigration gates even wider. It means almost a tripling in the level of immigration, from 700K or so, to 2 million a year.

I expect many of these people will earn their citizenship through service.

Poland may be an exception, but Germany is empty. The UK is empty. Italy had nothing but its good navy to begin with. Spain cannot fight - in principle.

Only France has some good stuff left - because they were greedy in sharing with the Ukrainians.

When I say there are no shells and no tanks - you only have to read what Rhinemetall, BAE, and others write in their own press reports.

There WILL be a mountain of shells, and hordes of tanks, but later - not now.

Poland - like France - stopped helping Ukraine as soon as it started eating into core stocks. Also, Poland decided not to wait on German and British production - and instead to go with some exotic purchases. That may help it too

Sauron will no doubt gather minions not only from Mordor but many other lands. ;)

But will the quality of those ragged conscripts be good enough to fight Gondor's professional armies that remain intact and alert?


Brilliant.

You can start by telling the Potato Fuhrer to send those badly needed hordes of migrants east instead of west.

If Ukraine caused your army so much trouble, how can you hope to fight NATO? It's pure fantasy.