a scenario which has been outlined by Carlo Masala in his recent bestseller: When Russia wins.
I read a fairly dreary novel a couple, of weeks ago about nuclear war. By an American writer, prolific but banal. The scenario about the war starting was an orc tactical missile accidentally hitting somewhere in south east Poland, with Poland triggering Article 5.
Then, most of Europe was wrecked permanently by fallout from ground burst missiles launched before anyone could react. They wrecked America by a mix of Poseidon subs causing tidal waves on each of their coasts, a TOT (time on target) strike flattening Washington, and a series of nukes destroying the bunker Cheyenne Mountain and the other strikes plus fallout/hunger/infighting killing 90% of their population.
That was fiction though, designed to set up a scenario where the book's hero could do all sorts of exiting things.
The reality is more banal, and Pistorius probably called it right. They'll try something, however it won't be until r*SSia rearms. They'll try it on a smaller country who would need to rely on NATO to thwart them, almost certainly one that was formerly part of the USSR.