Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 17

good wordplay

Just to continue on the subject of sanctions...

I think the reality is that there are much more powerful interests on the side of lifting sanctions, than those working to keep them in place.

As mentioned in a previous post, keeping Russia eternally sanctioned like Cuba or Iran, has very little practical benefit - even to our enemies. The benefits of lifting sanctions, however, are much more tangible and alluring.

The only people that will really suffer are American LNG companies, the Azerbaijani state oil company, Qatar's state gas monopoly, and other similarly odious fellas.

On the other hand, eastern Europe's largest consumer market could be reopened to Western goods. They'll find it much harder to compete than before they left, but still...

From French and Italian luxury goods, to German automobiles, to Scandinavian furniture - all these things are worth quite a bit more than even trade in hydrocarbons.

Finally - and I suspect it's already waaaaaay to late for this - if you want to peel Russia away from China in a sort of reverse-Nixon, the only thing that may do that is reintegrating Russia with Western economies.

If you decide you simply don't want anything to do with us, then you can't really blame us for how we choose our friends.

...just to post some touchy-feely crap on PF that's supposed to make you cringe...

Hey, Russia-hating azholes...Russia is liberating Russian Donbass just as the USSR liberated the USSR in 194x. No difference...

I wish Russia and China the very best and to be strong enough so that no moron in Washington will dream about another "freedom and democracy" war in Asia.

If China decides to take Taiwan, I hope Russia will return the favor and assist. Taiwan is none of our fvcking business.

In fact, China taking Taiwan would benefit the US. We would be forced to produce them "chips" at home. Our dependence on foreign sources borders on both treason and insanity.

Ooooof, that will be a big one...

That one has a bit more of a WW3 flavor, than even the current thing.

Even though, as you said, things should be extremely simple.

America itself rescinded its recognition of Taiwan. It doesn't even allow them to have an embassy in the United States. It has explicitly agreed with China that these are legitimate Chinese territories that must one day be reunited.

One problem though - America doesn't believe it should happen militarily. However, the chance that it will happen in some other, more peaceful way, pretty much evaporated during the 2010s.

Different people got elected in Taiwan, and they didn't pursue the same policies as previous governments of gradual integration with China. China got impatient and started trying to scare them into submission. Kinda like the Ukrainians, those guys woke up to some new fake identity, and now it's hard to put those feelings of "Taiwanese Pride" back in the bottle.

So war seems like the only way China can regain the territory.

...just like the one in the US in 186x after the North-South conference in Oslo failed to produce a peaceful solution...

Hehe, yep.

One helluva civil war that was.

I can imagine the 19th century British or French versions of Maf and CMS Neuf!

Maf: "Get your grubby hands off the South! It's clear they hate you, and want nothing to do with you!"

Neuf: "When can we expect the big eared Yankee alcoholics to finally make it to New Orleans? It's been three years, and they're still in Virginia - hahaha!"

Nobody is talking about eternal sanctions - they can be lifted once NN withdraws from Ukraine, pays for reconstruction and delivers war criminals to the Hague.

Until then, these consumers will have to live without their Scandinavian furniture.

Your side is the one killing them. Don't pull that passive aggressive BS....

So they will never be lifted then.

Sanctions have not forced Cuba to budge a single inch in 60 years. Ditto for Iran. For NK. Even South African Apartheid collapsed due to other reasons than the sanctions they had been living under.

Somehow, South Africa even managed to create a nuclear weapon. So did NK. Iran is trying now to do the same. Funny little correlation with sanctions.

I would like to see an example of a single situation in the past half century where sanctions played a constructive role.

They didn't force Saddam to change a thing. Not Gaddafi. Not Robert Mugabe (hello people that think hyperinflation equates to collapse of government).

The only things that work are:

1) Direct military action (this is the reason why sanctions exist, in a hope of avoiding this)

2) Real, meaningful engagement where you stop gaslighting your negotiating partner into thinking he is an autistic orc, but instead actually listen to his concerns

That will do nicely.


If they're ineffective, then you've nowt to fret over.

They are ineffective at forcing regime change, or even meaningful policy change in an unfriendly regime.

Instead of undermining popular support for a government, they very often have the opposite effect of forcing people to rally around the flag.

This is evident now, in the disappointment of Russian emigres that left in 2022. Being debanked, being refused academic positions, having residency rights revoked, etc... has forced many to return to Russia, while others are starting to act pretty cranky on social media towards Western governments and Ukraine.

If the West really wanted to damage Russia, they would do everything to ensure these Russians never want to return home through a very warm welcome.

This is the plane on which sanctions are ineffective.

It would be ridiculous to argue that sanctions have no effect, or that they are even helpful (there are such people). Growth has been impressive (given the context), and many major import substitutions have been successfully accomplished, but everything would have been even better if there were no sanctions. This is clear.

Actually those who support the russian jihad against Ukraine are not autistic orcs.... they're neurotypical orcs.


Tried and failed. It'll only work if russia gives up on invading neighboring countries for stupid bvllsh[t reasons.

Don't want to act like modern Europeans? Then don't expect to be treated like modern Europeans.

Save Serbs of Ukraine from madman Zel!

Well, one way to probably guarantee Russia won't attack its European neighbors is by admitting Russia into the EU and NATO.

How about that?

Then we'll also let all our weapons go to dust, and sit happily under an American military umbrella.

The funds we're no longer spending on making war, we will spend to make Russia into a paradise for all Russians as you've always suggested.

Poland and Romania will have to move aside, as Russia becomes the primary recipient of Brussels' Cohesion Funds and Structural Funds. Germans and French will have to send a couple trillion dollars our way to catch us up economically.

While we wait until you catch us up to your level of fantastic wealth, we'll decamp in Berlin and Paris. Then when things are nice and rosy in Russia we will move back home - PROMISE!

P.S. Actually, joining the EU might accomplish what war and sanctions never could - destroying Russia's economy.

This might be your best play.

if russia can meet entry requirements then I have no problem with that...

NATO is another matter, of course the first step would have to be withdrawal to internationally recognized borders.


the EU and NATO aren't needed for that, just the will to build peace and prospertiy (neither of which seem to be very important to most russians)

I think BB and Alien will have a heart attack if they learn they have to send trillions to Russia now, on top of the hundreds of billions spent on Poland.

But it's a great investment guys - be sure of it!

We'll be forever grateful for your aid, and you will buy yourself a loyal friend - just like Poland!

After what Germany did to you nothing is too harsh.

Western "democracies" told Russia that it's OK to invade countries as far away as 10,000 miles on rumors and to shove "freedom and democracy" down the throats of the people who never asked for it - so kindly fvck off of Russia.

In terms of deaths, Russia has ways to go to match the Western records since the end of WW2.

nzz.ch/english/russia-is-escalating-its-hybrid-war-against-the-west-ld.1858857 (November 26, 2024)

I consider the source rather conservative and quite serious!

Imagine this scenario: Poland, the United Kingdom and other partners extend their air defense systems to cover western Ukraine. This allows the Ukrainian army, as it seeks to defend against Russian missiles and drones, to concentrate on Kyiv and areas close to the front. In addition, coalition troops are able to enter Ukraine protected by their own air cover in order to take on logistic missions in the rear, among other tasks.

Although this is not yet a reality, it is a viable option that is currently being discussed in northeastern Europe. An open letter is calling on Europe and Canada to join forces to support the Ukrainian fight for freedom and stop Russian aggression. One of the first signatories of the appeal was former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, who helped lead efforts to fend off a hybrid Russian attack on his country in 2007.....

There is something brewing....

When will it finally sink in that Donbass and Crimea is Russian and U will not be in NATO.

Also that NATO will not have a base near Moscow. Even my cat knows it...

...interesting is the fact that now plans seem to be made WITHOUT the addition or even the nod of the US....no compliance/support from the new US prez is needed/expected! That is kinda new for us Europeans!

And what you always wanted, right? :)

Yes.

...and Germany to make friends with Russia, buy all the gas your need, and keep your economy humming.

My wishes and the plan is for Germany and Russia to jointly take control of Europe to prevent another big one. This would make NATO an all-European affair and castrate our MICC down to 200 billion a year from a trillion.

Novi's new world order...

....not when the pipes still run through others territory....imagine how easy it would be to destroy them (again)!

Planes don't fly there, only missiles do (and some long range drones). I don't think this would be very meaningful, because Ukraine already has very capable anti air systems.

But that's not really the issue, is it?

You say this is unusual, because the Europeans are doing it without looking over their back at the United States. This is misleading.

You are part of the same alliance. If a Polish or British jet fighter is shot down over Ukraine, what happens next? I believe the Russian government would view the US as being directly involved, since Poles and Brits can't fly anywhere and can't bomb anything for more than a day, without requiring US assistance. They tried to do it over Libya, but quite literally ran out of munitions within a week and had to request urgent resupply from the US.

Having Brits and Poles there is as good as having Americans there, and we know America doesn't want to be there. So they will simply tell you not to do it.

If you insist on proceeding with your brilliant plan regardless, I think it would be only fair for the United States to say: "In that case, Article V protections cannot be invoked through a potential further widening of the war".

You can't drag America into this war, by entering Ukraine quickly - losing a couple of planes - and then running back to daddy to complain. That's a transparently extortionate policy of "ally blackmail".

But would you do anything if you knew there wasn't an American backstop? 100% no.

BB, my dear friend...You are underestimating Germany's standing in Europe, especially in the Eastern half. Building up your military would help, too...

With Poland on your side, the rest of them would either fold or join.

BTW, it seems that running that pipe under water was a very bad idea. The Brritish and the US SOBs cannot ever be trusted. The same pipe running through Poland would be safer and most likely in operation with proper financial incentives.

That's the thing Novi....a Germany which snuggles up to Russia, totally ignoring it's neighbours wishes and fears (especially Polands), would have very soon no standing left at all.

And if there is a way to pay back the arrogant, egoistical Germans, then with cutting them off of their necessary energy....so....such a gas-deal with Putin, as cheap as it would be, would become soon an own goal for Germany of epic proportions.
Not only would we be starved off it very soon, we also would be unable to expect help and support from said neighbours in that case...

In other news this week:

1) Boris Johnson, during a podcast interview, says "Come on mates, let's be honest - we're in a proxy war".

2) France says they will not arrest Netanyahu, because Israel is not a signatory to the ICC. Hahahahaha. Nobody seemed to care that Russia never signed it, but when it's our "son of a b*tch" it's all kosher.

3) Zelensky said he's finally ready to cede territory, albeit in exchange for a positive decision on admitting Ukraine to NATO. Still a little bit delusional, but he's getting there. Slowly, the inevitability of what is to come is dawning on him.

4) A good half of all the mortar shells bought from a Ukrainian state producer have been discovered to be unusable.

5) Ukrainian social media is boiling over with sh*t, because somebody in the West this week said they really need to start drafting 18 year olds. On top of everybody else discussing what sort of mineral wealth may be underground, the Ukrainians are finally starting to understand they've been used like the last suckers.


Yes, but it's also not good if Russia and Germany can never work together, because of the paranoia of others. Instead of constantly seeking to coddle their fears, we need to be strict and forthright with them about what is realistic. We have so much leverage in our hands, we could make them see reason.