An interesting article explaining the recent tensions between Poland and Ukraine and forecasting the relations when the new gov is formed in Poland
OCTOBER 22, 2023
Kyiv apparently held its breath. It has not yet congratulated on the success of the democratic opposition or Donald Tusk, who is already the official candidate for prime minister. In fact, congratulations did not reach the PiS headquarters either.
Ukrainian politicians seem to be in trouble; They are waiting for the development of events, the move of President Andrzej Duda and the appointment of a government. It requires patience. Meanwhile, the elections were covered in Ukr media in a friendly, comprehensive and competent manner as probably never before. Previously, the information was sketchy, but this time it was explained in detail who the winners and losers were and why things turned out the way they did.
Kyiv counts on Berlin and Warsaw
The explanation for this change is simple: Polish politics is more interesting for Ukrainian commentators since the outbreak of the war in February 2022, when millions of people crossed the borders , fleeing from bombs, rockets and the brutality of Russian soldiers. Hundreds of thousands of people have had nowhere to return. Some of them made their lives in our country.
Poland was the first to provide aid to Ukraine. We continue to do so, even though relations between the capitals have evolved significantly, also due to our election campaign and Kiev's pro-European aspirations, requiring significant changes in EU structures and strategies. Pavlo Klimkin, the long-time Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, in an interview with European Pravda, notes that the Polish elections will change the political situation in Central Europe and Warsaw's relations with Brussels.
Today, Poland and its politics are more interesting for the Ukrainian political class. It is no longer just the cemetery of the Lviv Eaglets, the Volhynian crime or the mythical Odessa-Brody-Płock pipeline . It is thinking about the post-war future, European integration and the reconstruction of the country. Kyiv may be counting more on the Germans here, also due to the scale of aid, but it understands that Poland's position is important.
Moreover, many journalists from Ukraine found employment in the Polish media, which was an expression of support and created a group of commentators well versed in Polish politics. Now they can shine.
The worst was avoided
"In general, for Ukraine, the election results in Poland look quite satisfactory," writes the most influential Ukrainian portal European Pravda. And he talks about why the process of transfer of power may be slightly delayed - Andrzej Duda will probably want to entrust the party that took first place with the task of forming the government. And only when PiS fails to fulfill this mission will the mandate pass to the Civic Coalition and its associates. We read further that PiS's victory is pyrrhic. The result is not enough for the majority, and the only potential partner - Confederation, known for its anti-Ukrainian beliefs - failed.
"The worst-case scenario - a coalition of PiS and Konfederacja - has almost certainly been avoided . And in the alliance of KO, Third Way and the Left, all political forces have a completely pro-Ukrainian position. Unlike in many European countries, even the Polish left has no sympathy for the Kremlin," writes European Truth.
"The Civic Coalition, Third Way and the Left have a chance to create a stable majority that will be sufficient to change the government," writes Yuri Panchenko from Warsaw in the text entitled "Poland votes for a change of power: what does it mean and how will its relations with Ukraine change?"
Zelensky did not take photos with the opposition
President Volodymyr Zelensky, out of necessity, invested a lot in relations with PiS and Andrzej Duda. Poland opened its borders, and Rzeszów and the airport in Jasionka became the focal point for foreign aid and Ukraine's relations with the world.
Zelensky avoided contacts with the opposition and Tusk like the plague, and has not met him since the outbreak of the war. In Warsaw, he went so far as to support the PiS version of the Smolensk air crash myth. He said exactly what PiS wanted to hear. As the president of the attacked country, he must have realized the importance of the words he spoke in the Polish capital. And the ban issued to members of the presidential team from taking photos with the leaders of the Polish opposition sounds downright humorous.
Friendship with Duda broke out suddenly, even though the Polish president had previously paid little attention to relations with Kiev. Quite suddenly, he began to argue that support for a free Ukraine is an issue beyond political disputes, Poles and Ukrainians will never allow Moscow to quarrel, and this is the message to the Kremlin. Poland supported Ukraine's integration with the EU, demanded quick sanctions against Russia, and mobilized Brussels to help. For Duda and PiS it was "political gold". Zelenski apparently did not take into account that the campaign was about to start in Poland and that PiS might lose after eight years.
Already at the beginning of the campaign, a scandal broke out related to the transit and import of Ukrainian grain (wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower). The Polish government, without waiting for the decision of the European Commission covering Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, unilaterally banned the entry of grain into the country, attacking the most vital interests of Ukraine.
The 80th anniversary of the Volhynian massacre fell soon and both presidents unexpectedly met in Lutsk, where, as Zelensky wrote online, they paid "tribute to the memory of all the victims of Volhynia"; "together - Ukraine and Poland - we defend freedom." It turned out that Duda and his entourage expected a clear apology from Zelensky. But the word "sorry" was not uttered.
The neighbor's patience is running out
Then it only got worse; it is worth remembering Andrzej Duda's subsequent statements reprimanding Zelenski, as well as Prime Minister Morawiecki's arrogance noticed in Kiev, but also in Brussels and Washington. Agriculture Minister Robert Telus threatened to block Ukraine's entry into the EU. By striking anti-Ukrainian tones, PiS wanted to take away the support of the Confederation. Kiev, used to dirty campaigns, seemed to understand this, although its neighbor's patience was waning.
Now many people in Kiev can breathe a sigh of relief, because "the emotional outbursts of recent months have been very disturbing, leading to the erosion of the unique atmosphere of solidarity." Yet, Ukraine needs Warsaw's solidarity today and will continue to do so in the future. Of course, the new authorities will not suggest cutting off military aid, as Kiev heard from Morawiecki in September, commentators speculate. It can be expected that Warsaw will no longer violate the rules of the EU single market, adds one of the analysts.
However, not everything will be fine a week after the elections, warn Ukrainian experts. We should not expect that relations between Kiev and Warsaw will be cloudless. This certainly applies to the grain problem - the leader of Agrounia, Michał Kołodziejczak, will become an MP from KO, and Donald Tusk and the stability of the future coalition directly depend on the votes of Polish farmers. It can be assumed that the new government's position will remain tough, although some compromise will probably be found, commentators say.
Ukrainians were also disgusted by the open and aggressive anti-German attitude of PiS, which seemed to expect Kiev to support this campaign. Meanwhile, no major political force could afford it. For obvious reasons. Although Germany missed Russia's first attack, it is now helping Ukraine strongly. Kyiv also couldn't understand the PiS government's reluctance towards Brussels. Poland belongs to the community, at every opportunity it emphasizes that there is also a place for Ukraine in it, it offers help and encourages efforts. At the same time, it constantly criticizes and tries to boycott EU rules and requirements. As Ukrainian commentators write, Berlin can now breathe a sigh of relief. And they remind us that PiS submitted a diplomatic note demanding payment of compensation for damage caused during World War II on October 3, 2022 - on the day of Germany's national holiday. Poland considered it good trolling, Germany rather a sign of rudeness.
Ukraine looks at Poland with hope
Now the prevailing hope is that the tone in Poland will change. A pro-European coalition that does not suffer from anti-German phobias will take power. Ukraine no longer has to stand astride the barricade. For her, the most important topic, apart from victory over Russia, is EU membership. Since Kiev chose the path to the West and when the opportunity for expansion opened up, this became the determinant of all its activities. Ukrainians and Ukrainian politicians are deeply aware that not belonging to the EU will be constantly exposed to conflicts with Moscow.
This is what commentators focus on. "We should under no circumstances forget that Ukraine's existence is only possible within the framework of the West. Russia will not stop its efforts to completely destroy Ukraine. The elections in Poland have become a kind of mirror that should show what the political model of Central Europe will be and how it will affect our prospects," says Pavlo Klimkin.
Poland, under Donald Tusk's rule, once again appears as the best partner for Ukraine, as a supporter of rearranging the EU in such a way that Ukraine's accession becomes possible. This is a moment when the fate of Ukraine hangs in the balance and it should be used.
Yuri Panchenko, a commentator of the European Pravda website, adds that in addition to hopes associated with a change of government in Warsaw, it is also important for Kiev to maintain good relations with PiS. "Ukraine has a lot to thank this party and its leaders for," we read in his post-election analysis. And maybe this attitude is right. Now no one in PiS will accuse the authorities in Kiev of this terrible ingratitude.
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