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USD shooting up so high for PLN


johnny reb 23 | 4,572
11 Mar 2015 #61
Yeah it is $3.91 today.
This morning the Euro was at $1.05. Hasn't been there in probably 14 years. I remember when it was about $1.40.
The European stock markets are all doing well, but there are underlying problems.
Their central banks are all hot on stimulus like we were with QE 1, 2, 3, etc. That is pushing their interest rates down and the currency rates follow interest rates down. Thus the strength of the dollar.

That's the best way I can describe it.
My gold stocks are down more than 50% because of it.
Just sitting back waiting for war to break out, unfortunately, and then people will start hedging in those gold stocks and I will
be able to retire large in Poland drinking top shelf vodka with Harry.
OP pigsy 7 | 305
11 Mar 2015 #62
Long way there for your vodka I'm flying to Warsaw now to cash in my dollars

I'm cashing dollars to buy real estate, if it goes up more I'll cash more as I collect to buy inpoland Realestate is giving over 9% return plus 5% sleeping return ( appreciation) atleast, lots of deals to pick up, now I'm going to Warsaw in Copenhagen now changing flights;)

Above all I don't do markets
jon357 63 | 15,214
12 Mar 2015 #63
Great for American travellers to Europe however.

The low zloty is great for Poland's tourist industry too (and the GBP/EUR rate is great for British tourists going anywhere in Europe). Also good for Poland's agricultural/food exports (all those oven fries/pot noodles, yummy, plus jam, gherkins, mustard, flax/linen, sugar) and other things PL produces a lot of, plaster, ceramic tiles etc.. Not so good for other exports where all or part of the raw materials are bought in Euro but lower labour and other running costs will partly mitigate that.

Plus of course the remittances from Poles working in Britain and elsewhere.
Monitor 14 | 1,820
12 Mar 2015 #64
wrong. price in euro is not changing much. Only products imported from out of eurozone, mostly Russia and China will get more expensive.
jon357 63 | 15,214
12 Mar 2015 #65
wrong. price in euro is not changing much

Even a tiny change in the exchange rate has a significant effect on large scale industrial production - I know whereof I speak. And dropping from 4.35 in December to 4.15 yesterday has had its effect.

There are also significant raw and processed material imports realised in GBP and USD and of course all petroleum based products are traded in USD.
Ziemowit 13 | 4,096
12 Mar 2015 #66
Investors are dumping their euros to buy dollars.

There is a good chance the Feds will be raising interest rates in June which means the PLN will take another hit.

An interesting thing would be to know if the zloty moves along the same trajectory against the American dollar as the euro. If the CEB does its quantative easing and everything tells us that it will, would that mean that the Polish central bank would follow the move of the CEB soon? If not, the supply of zloties onto the market won't increase, while the supply of the euro will. That could lead to the PLN loosing against the dollar, but may perhaps result in its strenghtening to the euro in the longer run.
Monitor 14 | 1,820
12 Mar 2015 #67
4.35 in December to 4.15 yesterday has had its effect.

EURPLN fluctuates around 4.2 since few years, so such change is nothing special. But you wrote that expensive USD is good for Polish tourist industry. But how? Most of tourists are Germans, and for them it became more expensive as you showed. The same with Russians who were substantial part of tourists to Poland. For Poles vacation in eurozone became little cheaper so that also bad for Polish tourist industry. And then you write that it's not good for export using raw material bought in Eur. But how ? You just showed that euro is cheaper that few months ago.
jon357 63 | 15,214
12 Mar 2015 #68
But you wrote that expensive USD is good for Polish tourist industry.

The strong USD/PLN is very good if it encourages visitors from the US.

Most of tourists are Germans, and for them it became more expensive as you showed.

Tourism patterns fluctuate. This summer it's good for Americans and British who want to visit Europe. Hopefully some of that mony will come to Poland.

For Poles vacation in eurozone became little cheaper so that also bad for Polish tourist industry

That makes little difference - their average spend is lower.
Monitor 14 | 1,820
12 Mar 2015 #69
Quite opposite. The money of few American tourists which will come to Poland because of strong USD are probably smaller that money lost by Polish tourists which will choose Greece instead of Baltic sea.

Just look here:

A study conducted in 2013 evaluated the average expenditure of tourists visiting Poland at 401 USD per person and 76 USD per day of stay (weighted averages). Comparison of the data obtained with those evaluated on the year 2012, indicates a slight decrease of average expenses per person (approx. 0.7%) and daily expenses (by about 2%); in both cases it refers to the weighted average.
Disturbing in this case is the fact that the downward trend, albeit small, remains steady since the fourth quarter of 2012.

d1dmfej9n5lgmh.cloudfront.net/msport/article_attachments/attachments/56640/original/Przyj_do_Pol_w_2013_dla_MSiT_-_po_korekcie.pdf?1397138332

There were 300,000 American tourists in Poland in 2013 and 5,300,000 German. American tourists are not important for the industry, except if few times more will come now.
jon357 63 | 15,214
12 Mar 2015 #70
Quite opposite. The money of few American tourists which will come to Poland because of strong USD

Not so much - remember they have a far higher spend per head than locals. And the strong Pound will hopefully attract more British visitors. All of the local holidaymakers aren't going to suddenly desert Poland though - their spending power hasn't increased that much.
Ziemowit 13 | 4,096
12 Mar 2015 #71
he money of few American tourists which will come to Poland because of strong USD are probably smaller that money lost by Polish tourists which will choose Greece instead of baltic sea.

Monitor, I think it is pretty easy to make the financial simulation of it, if you had data on how much an avarage tourist spends in Poland. (Sorry, I cannot do it mysef as I'm usually too busy in the off-topic bin these days.)
Monitor 14 | 1,820
12 Mar 2015 #72
Even if Americans spend 4 x average, then it's still small money, they're so few in Poland.
jon357 63 | 15,214
12 Mar 2015 #73
Yes - the weak USD hadn't been doing much for them travelling however this may well change as it is likely to for Brits with the strong pound GBP/PLN. I suspect that most who come spend many times more than 4x the spend of an average domestic tourist.
Wroclaw Boy
26 Mar 2015 #74
PLN seems to be coming back a bit

5.45 to the £1 down from 5.9 last week
not so strong against the dollar but a slight improvement.
Marsupial - | 886
26 Mar 2015 #75
The us dollar shot up due to some interest rate anticipations which did not happen. Also todays trade figures are weak. If this continues pln and all other currencies will fare better against usd. If this continues.


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