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USD shooting up so high for PLN


pigsy 7 | 305
18 Dec 2014  #1
I am wondering to cash the $s or wait for it to go up more,not that anyone can predict but anyone have any ideas if it will keep on going up or its at its peak?
Monitor 14 | 1,821
18 Dec 2014  #2
There are 2 types of analysis:
The first is about understanding real world situation and predicting how it will influence further economy. It's quite difficult, because of many factors.
And the second, which is based on reading graphs.
walutomat.pl/kursy-walut
What I see here is that in last 6 years 4 times USD was more than 3.48PLN. So statistically, if you're ready to wait max. 2 more years, you should be able to catch another peak close to 3.48. Maybe in few days, maybe not.
whyikit 6 | 102
18 Dec 2014  #3
Charts tell you nothing really, over the last 6 years correct but same can be said over the last 10 year it has only breached the level.... It is very dangerous to rely on charts...

One way to have a general idea is to look at the futures for the respective exchange however these can also be wrong but it kind of gives a consensus view....
Monitor 14 | 1,821
18 Dec 2014  #4
Charts tell you nothing really,

I think that charts tell you probability that something will happen again if conditions will not change dramatically. All other ways don't work waterways people who know them would be rich.
OP pigsy 7 | 305
19 Dec 2014  #5
damn! $ hit 3.49 today against pln.
Wroclaw Boy
20 Dec 2014  #6
I haven't done much research but somebody recently mentioned falling oil prices and the US using that as a tactic to artificially inflate its economy. I do watch the PLN/GBP often as i send money out to Poland every month and i can confirm today its at 5.48 which is a 4 year high. I sent some money out about 2 weeks ago and it was around 5.0 then.

a logical mind would think its linked to oil. Prices at the pumps in the UK are at about a 5 year low.
johnny reb 17 | 3,890
20 Dec 2014  #7
damn! $ hit 3.49 today against pln.

The stronger the $ the lower gold goes and weakens other currancy around the world.
and if you think $1 to 3.49 is bad try Jamaica where it is $1 to 120.
I blame it on global warming as the world doesn't need so much heating oil anymore so
the price of oil is dropping. Supply and demmand theory.
weeg
20 Dec 2014  #8
Dollar is going up due to removal of quantative easing by the USA. They are no longer diluting the dollar with printing.
The zloty is further affected by contasion from the collapse of the Russian Ruble. Less exports to the poverty stricken Fascists.
The Ruble is being killed by the over supply of oil as it's worth is determined by Russias only product.
Wroclaw Boy
20 Dec 2014  #9
and if you think $1 to 3.49 is bad try Jamaica where it is $1 to 120.

depends on what the 120 is worth in value terms though Johnny.....as in the price of commodities. Duhh
OP pigsy 7 | 305
21 Dec 2014  #10
The stronger the $ the lower gold goes and weakens other currancy around the world.

I noticed that,I wonder whats the math behind that?
Wroclaw Boy
21 Dec 2014  #11
It doesn't have much to do with Gold prices but as for weakening other currencies this is short term, the Dollar is being artificially inflated at the moment as a result of oil being at a four year low. FX traders could certainly make some money at the moment. I used to trade/gamble a bit on GBP/PLN back in the day and successfully predicted one 20% swing and a few other smaller trends.

January Nymex WTI crude oil prices were lower and are hovering near last Friday's four-year low. I look for crude oil to bottom out somewhere in the $60s-per-barrel range at some point in the not-too-distant future. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher and is hovering near last week's four-year high.

forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2014/11/17/gold-ends-weaker-on-corrective-pullback-and-strong-u-s-dollar
weg03
21 Dec 2014  #12
As the USA is now one of the worlds biggest oil producers is hard to say which is driving which price.

QE is the driver. $80 to 35 billion per month removed from the world makes the remaining dollars rairer and more valuable.

Traders, btw, have to show a profit everyday, they cant swoop in and make 20% on a hunch. so they commit to stratergy and loss/gain as it unfolds. And betting on falling prices is the same as rising prices.
OP pigsy 7 | 305
21 Dec 2014  #13
Yesterday I paid 2.01$ a gallon,paid 49bucks to fill tank,once paid almost 120$ for the same tankfull of gas,amazing!

its 1.99 a gal in costco today:)))
johnny reb 17 | 3,890
21 Dec 2014  #14
The stronger the $ the lower gold goes and weakens other currancy around the world.

I noticed that,I wonder whats the math behind that?

That's hard to answer in a few words, but it's basically because gold and oil are always quoted in dollar prices.
Even if the price doesn't change in dollar terms, it will have become more expensive in euros or pesos,
if the dollar has been strengthening in relation to those other currencies.
So with much of the rest of the world seeing more expensive gold, especially India and Asia, demand falls off and the price goes down in all currencies.

If my investment charts hold true I should do very very well in the first quarter.
OP pigsy 7 | 305
21 Dec 2014  #15
If my investment charts hold true I should do very very well in the first quarter.

So you think $ will go up more?
johnny reb 17 | 3,890
22 Dec 2014  #16
I would hate to give you wrong advise.
China is showing a very weak performance right now however.
I know what I am going to be investing in though.
The global economy is very fradgile right now.

depends on what the 120 is worth in value terms though Johnny.....as in the price of commodities. Duhh

With a genius statement like that you should ask W.B. what he thinks it will do.
He will give you all kinds of free advise.
I wouldn't bet all your fish hooks on it however.
Wroclaw Boy
22 Dec 2014  #17
i would personally change your money today at 3.48, don't think its likely to go much higher and i would be surprised if it stays at this rate for very long.
OP pigsy 7 | 305
23 Dec 2014  #18
i would be surprised if it stays at this rate for very long.

lol how long you think?I will be in poland now in january hope it stays same or goes up:) thx for the advice though:)

i would personally change your money today at 3.48, don't think its likely to go much higher and i would be surprised if it stays at this rate for very long.

investing.com/currencies/usd-pln

thx for advice,and thx god im overseas will exchange in january though but made me a substantial amount of gains if I had not followed your advice:) noy ur fault but my luck,hope it stays:)
Marsupial - | 888
25 Dec 2014  #19
Oil economies have to change to survive. We are never again buying a new car which is just petrol in my family. Nor a mower or any other devices. Entire countries are changing this part of their policy. Countries which have innovation and production in the new industries will be worth much more. Usa has heaps of this type of thing happening, russia has almost none. The currencies match in my view one is sending mostly just obsolete fuels the other moving forward, somehow. The whole oil thing will change this is just the start. So it may be futile to look at the old dollar to oil price ratios, in my opinion there will be new conditions.
cms 9 | 1,272
25 Dec 2014  #20
The government normally buys a load of zloty at the end of the year for political reasons - that will strengthen the zloty a little for a few days but in january i expect 3.65
OP pigsy 7 | 305
25 Dec 2014  #21
It was 3.6578 on 31/01/09 last time maybe thats whats the reason its up at this time of the year?
investing.com/currencies/usd-pln
johnny reb 17 | 3,890
30 Dec 2014  #22
quote by W.B. It doesn't have much to do with Gold prices but as for weakening other currencies this is short term, the Dollar is being artificially inflated at the moment as a result of oil being at a four year low.

I totally disagree with your rational here Wroclaw Boy.
Oil's crash is being misinterpreted by many investors such as yourself.
Let me para phrase and condense an article that explains it best.
The MAIN STORY is the $9 TRILLION US Dollar carry trade.
Drilling for Oil, producing Oil, transporting Oil are extremely expensive processes.
This means unless you have hundreds of billions of Dollars in cash lying around you're going to have to borrow money.
Borrowing US Dollars is the equivalent of shorting the US DOLLAR.
If the US Dollar rallies, then your debt becomes more and more expensive to finance on a relative basis.
In this scheme, a US Dollar rally is Oil negative.
Oil's collapse is predicated by one major event: the explosion of the US Dollar carry trade.
Worldwide, there is over $9 TRILLION in borrowed US Dollars that has been ploughed into risk assets.
Economies that are closely aligned with commodities (all of which are priced in US Dollars) are getting demolished too.
Just about everything will be hit as well.

quote by W.B. i would personally change your money today at 3.48, don't think its likely to go much higher and i would be surprised if it stays at this rate for very long.

What is "very long" ? I can see things getting a lot worse for the E.U. as the U.S.D. continues to strengthen.

Most of the "recovery" of the last five years has been fueled by cheap borrowed Dollars.
Now that the US Dollar has broken out of a multi-year range, you're going to see more and more "risk assets" blow up.

Oil is just the beginning, not a standalone story.
If things really pick up steam, there's over $9 TRILLION worth of potential explosions waiting in the wings.
Imagine if the entire economies of both Germany and Japan exploded and you've got a decent idea of the size of the potential impact on the financial system.
Wroclaw Boy
30 Dec 2014  #23
I totally disagree with your rational here Wroclaw Boy.
Oil's crash is being misinterpreted by many investors such as yourself.

Thats cool, its not something i really know that much about to be honest. I see oil at a 4 year low and the Dollar at a 4 year high so made an obvious connection. I've also heard rumours about the US trying to fcuk with the Russians in an economic war...but again don't really know enough to make any concrete judgements or conclusions.

What is "very long" ?

when i wrote that post i would have said a few days but now I'm changing that to one month.

Oil is just the beginning, not a standalone story.

Oil has intrinsic value where as gold is only tangible, in lames terms; oil is essential gold is not.

Worldwide, there is over $9 TRILLION in borrowed US Dollars that has been ploughed into risk assets.

Doesn't the US owe China about that amount? are you aware of the US national debt, its massive dude, by far the largest on the world. $18 trillion i believe: usdebtclock.org
johnny reb 17 | 3,890
30 Dec 2014  #24
are you aware of the US national debt, its massive dude, by far the largest on the world.

Thank our Community Disorganizer for that. I don't think that has much to do with the value of the U.S.D. however.
I think the strangle hold that OPEC had has finally been broken.
I would have to say that the E.U. will not feel any relief with the U.S.D. exchange rate in the first quarter at all.

China's steel production has slowed way down because they have polluted the enviroment with deadly toxins.
This will help level the playing field with all the enviromental laws that America's are required to follow that
China has ignored. In doing so it made it tuff to compete.
Now that China is moving their steel production to South Africa so they can clean up the disaster they caused
in their country the U.S.D. will become even stronger.

quote by Wroclaw Boy: the Dollar is being artificially inflated at the moment

I disagree strongly with that statement.
Our economy is finally starting to show solid growth where the E.U. is not.
In such case the exchange rate of the U.S.D. will only widen the gap.
Can you imagine what would happen if/when the petro dollar collapses !
weeg
30 Dec 2014  #25
All good points Johnny Red.

Its worth remembering that low oil means low prices for Steel, concrete, glass and other commdities as they are highly enerrgy dependant. As is food.

USD is driven by the removal of QE, one of the effects being the carry trade as you highlighted.

Oil is a seperate thing, as is gold which it nutter driven
Wroclaw Boy
30 Dec 2014  #26
Thank our Community Disorganizer for that.

no no no no, that will be the inherent nature of the monetary system I'm afraid. Most 1st world countries have national debt, its no coincidence that the leading capitalist country has the largest amount of national debt. You should look into that, i think you would be surprised at your findings.

I don't think that has much to do with the value of the U.S.D. however.

No? Would you lend money to a guy that has money troubles? Obviously the situation is more complex than that but the metaphor still stands.

China's steel production has slowed way down because they have polluted the enviroment with deadly toxins.

Eh, since when does pollution affect profit?..never bothered the US. If anything this is more propaganda in an attempt to topple China as the new largest economy of the planet.

Now that China is moving their steel production to South Africa

What, thats insane.....China will never do that, they can't do that, why outsource at expense. Business lunacy and more US driven propaganda no doubt.

Our economy is finally starting to show solid growth where the E.U. is not.

The US economy is FCUKED absolutely FCUKED, based on the same factors that the rest of the world are facing....... add in a bit of corruption to the mix, out sourcing and cheap labor and the stage is set my man. Its simply a case of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

as is gold which it nutter driven

Great analysis Weg. You have a tendency to grasp about 20% of some truths and then pass that off as argument winners.

Why is oil cheap at the moment folks if not to fcuk with Russian gas and oil prices? Has the extraction process and transport systems suddenly become 10% cheaper, have we discovered billions of barrels of new oil resources? what?
weeg
30 Dec 2014  #27
WB. You are missing the point that the usd is unique is the world economy. As a result the US can print and borrow as much as it likes
Wroclaw Boy
30 Dec 2014  #28
Im not missing any points. What i see are desperate attempts for the USD to basically maintain itself as the dominant currency of which to price oil, in light of being overtaken as the leading economy by China and also being surpassed by Russia in terms of its capacity to supply natural/mineral resources. Russia has the largest land mass = largest economy........eventually....and the US doesn't like it.
johnny reb 17 | 3,890
30 Dec 2014  #29
You should look into that, i think you would be surprised at your findings.

No you look into it and then tell me what the national debt was before Obama came into office.

Would you lend money to a guy that has money troubles?

China has no problem doing it.

Eh, since when does pollution affect profit?..

Eh when one (the U.S) has to spend billions to have proper pollution control and the other guy (China) spend zero
and pollutes the enviroment to the point 80% of their water is unfit for animals.

China will never do that, they can't do that, why outsource at expense

I will let you goggle it yourself to so to not redden your face.

The US economy is FCUKED absolutely FCUKED

If that is true then the U.K.'s must REALLY BE FUKCED !
weeg
30 Dec 2014  #30
Gold is driven by people obsessed by inflation and golds supposed imortal store of value. its bollocks and the Gold freaks are nutters.

yes, oil is cheap to screw Russian Fascism. Damn right.


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