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How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]
Do you really think the zloty will fall 30% against sterling ? if so why?
Flight to quality, basically. So as an international investor (bank, sovereign fund) you are going to position your funds with the least risk, so (dollar, euro, gbp, yen etc)
Prices didn't fall that much in the last crash - was more like a 10 percent fall.
Different ball game, as completely under-estimated so far. The ultimate consequence will be less aggregate demand, high unemployment, less cash to chase goods etc.
Methinks, for a few years at least, there will be a paranoia in the autumn of what viruses the winter will bring. Each year will named something new like they do with hurricanes in Florida.
@Cargo pants
Bydgoszcz. I can see 60-80% in my own currency like I illustrated, but 30-40% in zloty terms. Banks wont issue mortgages, or restrict them to very credit worthy borrowers.
Anyway, its just a theory of mine how it will play out, but as discussed earlier in the thread, if you have cash, there will be some great opportunities. If you were highly indebted in the good times, its judgement day.