History / Polish attitudes towards ex-Soviet republics joining NATO [116]

I spend a lot of time following the discourse inside Ukraine and Georgia regarding potential future NATO membership. There's a definite plurality in favor of membership in both countries (something like 50%+ in Ukraine, 70%+ in Georgia).

The United States, the three Baltic countries, and Poland have been the champions of Ukrainian/Georgian membership, while Germany and France are resolutely opposed.

To what extent is Poland's support for Ukrainian membership a product of PiS's hawkish foreign policy on Russia? Is this, in fact, a bipartisan position that won't change regardless of who is in office? Is there actual across-the-board support among the population?

If Ukraine joins the alliance, and is then later attacked by Russia - how do average Poles feel about the prospect of sending Polish soldiers to protect Ukrainian sovereignty?

History / Would Poland be better off if it had lost in the Polish-Soviet War? [44]

Big historical counterfactual I found myself thinking about while reading about the Nazi-led Siege of Warszawa (1939, not 1944).

Here's what I think:

Pros:
Germany may not have attacked in 1939, or at all, as the USSR would have be much closer to the German heartland, and stronger demographically and industrially.

Poland would have preserved an enormous part of its population (Jews and Poles), and might have had a population of 45-50 million people today.

Poland would probably still control the Western Ukraine, in addition to any territories it would have gained in the West. Logic here is that if Poland is already part of the USSR, there is no need to transfer territories internally to Belarus and Ukraine.

Though it would have still had to live under decades of Communist rule, Poland would likely still be an independent country right now, because even small constituent republics of the USSR like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have gained independence since the failed social experiment collapsed.

Cons:

Poland would have likely still lost a great proportion of its population to famine, labor camps, elimination of political undesirables etc., just like Ukraine did. But still probably far fewer people would have died than under the German occupation.

Without the 20 year period of independence between the wars, Polish national consciousness might have been stamped out completely and would not survive to the present.

If the USSR had won the Polish-Soviet War, it likely would have continued rolling West until it reached the English Channel. We'd all be speaking Russian right now!

Finally, the Wehrmacht advanced over thousands of kilometers in the first year of Operation Barbarossa, before the Russians managed to finally stop them right at the doorstep of Moscow - so whether or not Poland was part of the USSR, it's very likely it would have been rolled over just the same, if Hitler had still decided to attack the USSR.

History / What are Polish opinions regarding Felix Dzerzhinsky? [17]

Dzerzhinsky was the first head of the Soviet secret police, the Cheka, which is a forerunner of the KGB, and the modern FSB. He was also perhaps one of the highest ranking Poles in Soviet government, earning the nickname "Iron Felix" from his fellow revolutionaries. While skimming through his biography on Wiki I was surprised to learn that he attended the Wilno Gymnasium at the same time as Pilsudski. What two different Poles, what two different lives....

News / Will America send troops to fight a Russian invasion of Baltics and/or Poland? [283]

Just read an article on the nytimes website about these huge, upcoming military drills in Russia and Belarus that will involve 100,000 troops.

nytimes.com/2017/07/31/world/europe/russia-military-exercise-zapad-west.html

The drills are called Zapad-2017. These large scale drills along the Western border were more or less regular during the times of the Soviet Union, but have been conducted only 3 times since 1991. Though this is certainly not the case now, it is important to note that in 2014 Russia used the cover of another large set of military drills to move its forces across the Ukrainian border, catching Western intelligence agencies by surprise.

The Russians are engaging huge amounts of military equipment during this exercise. Here's a quote from the article:

"[...]in combination with the highly mobile tank army, that force has about 800 tanks, more than 300 artillery pieces and a dozen Iskander tactical missile launchers.That is more tanks than NATO has in active units deployed in the Baltic States, Poland and Germany put together, not including armor in storage that would be used by reinforcements sent from the United States".

And the US/NATO response has been pretty laughable:

"The United States is taking precautions, including sending 600 American paratroopers to NATO's three Baltic members for the duration of the Zapad exercise and delaying the rotation of a United States-led battle group in Poland."

The comment section to the article is full of people espousing a sentiment along the lines of: "We need to get real with the Baltics and Poland, and tell them we're not going to go over there to fight the Russians for them."

However, people may say what they want, but America is still treaty bound by Article 5 to defend its allies. America has also been the only country in history to have actually invoked Article 5 (2001 Invasion of Afghanistan), so it would be pretty hypocritical of it to leave its allies hanging high and dry when their hour of need came. But unfortunately in these Trump days nothing seems certain... So as a hypothetical, what do you folks think about the chances of American boots on the ground in case of a Russian invasion into the Baltics or Poland?

P.S. - I fully recognize that an invasion of Poland is much less likely than one in the Baltics, which in turn - also has a pretty infinitesimal chance of happening.So this question is just for fun:)