News /
Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [669]
leaving western caliphate kolchoz and forging commonwealth with Belarus and Ukraine.
Russia has been building a "Union State" with Belarus since 1996:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State
This is above and beyond the framework of the CIS or Eurasian Union. Of course, when Lukashenko inevitably leaves all bets are off, but I would think that the Union State project will survive both Lukashenko and Putin.
Armenia is perhaps Russia's most loyal satrap, depending as they do, on the Russian military to defend them from the Azerbaijanis (Russia, incidentally, supplies weapons systems to both, and AZ is the one that can actually pay hard cash - go figure...).
Literally half of Moldova's working age male population works in Russia. In addition to that, Russia is the largest market for Moldovan exports, which nobody wants in Europe (Moldovan wine anyone?).
Good luck getting Serbia and Croatia together into anything! When they meet each other abroad they are friendly enough with each other, but on a state level there is so much bad blood between the two that it will be decades before one can talk of any union.
So it seems that out of the old Warsaw Pact only Ukraine is a good candidate for alliance building.
edit: Warsaw Pact countries not already in the EU or Nato