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Posts by Bobko  

Joined: 13 Mar 2017 / Male ♂
Warnings: 1 - O
Last Post: 21 hrs ago
Threads: Total: 27 / Live: 23 / Archived: 4
Posts: Total: 2056 / Live: 1980 / Archived: 76
From: New York
Speaks Polish?: Y
Interests: reading, camping

Displayed posts: 2003 / page 66 of 67
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Bobko   
12 Nov 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

Looks like a shared hate for Russia isn't enough to keep Ukraine and Poland on friendly terms any longer.

After returning from a recent trip to Lviv, on Nov 2 Polish FM Witold Waszczykowski told TVP1 that "both countries have a different notion of reconciliation."

He went on to say in that interview that the Ukrainians are basically exploiting Poland, because they know how important they are for Poland's geopolitical security. In response, Waszczykowski announced that unless Ukraine changes it's behavior, official Poland will launch procedures with serious consequences, including banning certain Ukrainian officials entry into Poland.

The reaction in Ukrainian media has been howling. The general consensus seems to be that Poland has taken it's mask off, and is behaving like the magnates of old. Basically pany trying to punish the chlops for raising their heads. Some are talking about how Ukraine now has to fight old imperial masters on two fronts.

In the most recent days the Polish FM's office has actually begun rolling out those travel bans, and the first ban was against Vladimir Vyatrovich, head of the Ukranian National Institute of Historic Memory. This has obviously incensed the Ukrainians even more, making it very hard for their President to make amends with the Polish government without looking like Kaczynski's poodle. So the ****-slinging continued.

Now finally - yesterday, the Polish deputy FM Cichocki told the state broadcaster that Ukraine is pursuing a destructive path in its relations with Poland. He said the current issues in Polish-Ukrainian relations are old, and were raised by previous Sejms not just the current one. These issues include use of Soviet-era terms like Polish occupied territories in relation to certain parts of Western Ukraine, the non-return of property to Polish Roman Catholic churches, the rehabilitation and glorification of the UPA, and insufficient contrition over the question of Katyn. It's not really clear to me how he expects the Ukrainians to apologize for Katyn. Perhaps he misspoke and actually meant Volhyn.

newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/relacje-polska-ukraina-coraz-gorsze-stosunki-polsko-ukrainskie,artykuly,418731,1.html
Bobko   
10 Aug 2017
News / Will America send troops to fight a Russian invasion of Baltics and/or Poland? [281]

Except the rest of the world has dropped sanctions on Russia

If you are referring to U.S. sanctions, then these are mainly tied to the annexation of Crimea and alleged meddling in the 2016 US elections. There is no language there about removal of Russian troops from east Ukraine.

The European sanctions package, on the other hand, is to a greater extent tied to the fulfillment of the different clauses of Minsk 2, but also doesn't mention removal of Russian troops, but rather things like allowing Ukraine to regain full control of the Russian-Ukrainian border in that part of the country.

So I'm not sure what your accusations are about. Looks like you're the only stupid one here. Read the news.
Bobko   
9 Aug 2017
News / Will America send troops to fight a Russian invasion of Baltics and/or Poland? [281]

which is why Ukrainians are killing Russian invading scum, legally and justifiably and are no threat to Poland.

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine.

Hate to rain on your parade Weg04, but it's kinda been the other way around. Your Ukrainian friends received an epic ass kicking from the Russians. Even more epic than the Georgians received. Ukrainians were being encircled and annihilated in strategic cauldrons with such regularity in the summer of 2014, that they needed Merkel and Hollande to hastily convene a mediation session that resulted in the humiliating Minsk Accords. If it wasn't for Mommy Merkel and Papa Hollande, the Donbass separatists would be in Kiev long ago.

Mind you, that epic ass kicking from the Russians was delivered in such a way that still no one is able to provide conclusive evidence of the presence of regular Russian military formations in east Ukraine. In other words, a few hundred Russians managed to wreck a Ukrainian army that is, on paper at least, many times the strength of Poland's.
Bobko   
5 Aug 2017
Life / Drugs in Warsaw [111]

Watch out for the Nigerians selling baby laxative outside clubs.
Bobko   
2 Aug 2017
News / Will America send troops to fight a Russian invasion of Baltics and/or Poland? [281]

A collection of knackered, 50 years old tanks (T-72) is no use on the battlefield.

Such an expert. By this measure the M1 Abrams is a useless rust bucket too, and if one is to take the analogy to airplanes then the B-52 Stratofortress shouldn't be flying at all (maiden flight 1952). Military equipment has modernization potential you know. The T-72B3 I listed (currently 600 T-72B tanks have been upgraded to that standard) is actually a very modern version of the T-72, which is in many ways superior to the newer (at least by nomenclature) T-90. Here's a link:

nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-t-72b3-the-lethal-russian-tank-ukraine-fears-most-16500

Deluded Russian fantasy (you are Russian of course), Russian combat forces number 170K.

I don't know where you are pulling this info out of. Cite me a single source that lists Russian combat forces at under even 200,000 and I will admit that I am a Russian troll.
Bobko   
2 Aug 2017
News / Will America send troops to fight a Russian invasion of Baltics and/or Poland? [281]

8I doubt Russia has 100K combat troops to take part in this exercise, as the vast majority are stationed around Ukraine.

I'm afraid that yours is the bullshit proclamation. Mind you, this quote was also from a NY Times article - they're not sloppy on the factchecking. In 1991 the Soviet Union had 63,900 tanks of all types in service and in storage. The present day figure for Russia is 2,700 in active service and 17,300 in storage (they are allowed no more than 20,000 under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe). The 2,700 tanks in active service are all modern tanks, from T-72B, to T-72B3, T-90S, T90SM.

Regarding the 100,000 being an exaggeration I would also like to call bullshit. The Russian Armed Forces have around 1 million personnel total, with another 2.5 million in reserve. Out of the 1 million, around 450,000 belong to the Ground Forces (in America it would be called the Army), another 280,000 in the Air Force, 180,000 in the Navy and so on. Are you still sure in that Russia can't spare 100,000 men for these drills? The units involved in action in the Ukraine numbered in the hundreds, or low thousands, and it was still enough to crush the Ukrainian army and force Kiev to sign the humiliating Minsk Accords.
Bobko   
1 Aug 2017
News / Will America send troops to fight a Russian invasion of Baltics and/or Poland? [281]

Just read an article on the nytimes website about these huge, upcoming military drills in Russia and Belarus that will involve 100,000 troops.

nytimes.com/2017/07/31/world/europe/russia-military-exercise-zapad-west.html

The drills are called Zapad-2017. These large scale drills along the Western border were more or less regular during the times of the Soviet Union, but have been conducted only 3 times since 1991. Though this is certainly not the case now, it is important to note that in 2014 Russia used the cover of another large set of military drills to move its forces across the Ukrainian border, catching Western intelligence agencies by surprise.

The Russians are engaging huge amounts of military equipment during this exercise. Here's a quote from the article:

"[...]in combination with the highly mobile tank army, that force has about 800 tanks, more than 300 artillery pieces and a dozen Iskander tactical missile launchers.That is more tanks than NATO has in active units deployed in the Baltic States, Poland and Germany put together, not including armor in storage that would be used by reinforcements sent from the United States".

And the US/NATO response has been pretty laughable:

"The United States is taking precautions, including sending 600 American paratroopers to NATO's three Baltic members for the duration of the Zapad exercise and delaying the rotation of a United States-led battle group in Poland."

The comment section to the article is full of people espousing a sentiment along the lines of: "We need to get real with the Baltics and Poland, and tell them we're not going to go over there to fight the Russians for them."

However, people may say what they want, but America is still treaty bound by Article 5 to defend its allies. America has also been the only country in history to have actually invoked Article 5 (2001 Invasion of Afghanistan), so it would be pretty hypocritical of it to leave its allies hanging high and dry when their hour of need came. But unfortunately in these Trump days nothing seems certain... So as a hypothetical, what do you folks think about the chances of American boots on the ground in case of a Russian invasion into the Baltics or Poland?

P.S. - I fully recognize that an invasion of Poland is much less likely than one in the Baltics, which in turn - also has a pretty infinitesimal chance of happening.So this question is just for fun:)
Bobko   
25 Jul 2017
History / Lusatian-Sarmatic obsession of Poles [153]

One could travel on all four sides of the world, all his life and. one could never see anything else but only land of Sarmatians.

Seems boring to me. There's value in diversity.
Bobko   
21 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

@polinv

I appreciate your post very much. Balanced and informative. It's good to hear "on-the-ground" reports.
Bobko   
15 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

Ah, Monsieur is an optimist...

Between 1991 and 2016 Ukraine's population went down by almost 10 million without any visa-free help.
Bobko   
13 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

Ukrainians Celebrate Visa-Free Travel To EU
rferl.org/amp/28539873.html

Border service reports some 2,555 Ukrainians travel visa-free to EU in first 42 hours
kyivpost/ukraine-politics/border-service-reports-2555-ukrainians-travel-visa-free-eu-first-42-hours.html
Bobko   
10 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

This article from the FT says that 1.3 million Ukrainians received temporary work registrations last year, and 116,000 more received longer term work permits. That's quite a bit more than the 1 million figure being discussed on the forums:

ft.com/content/aeda9ebe-3afa-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

The article also makes clear that unlike Syrians, very few of the Ukrainians are refugees fleeing from the war torn east, with only 6,000 claiming asylum since 2014. The majority are working-age economic migrants attracted by the prospect of earning fives times as much as they can in the Ukraine doing the same job.

The article cites a Polish-born economist at Barclays in London, who says the Ukrainians are filling the same types of jobs that Poles fill in Germany - mainly in the service industry and hospitality trade, and that the influx has slowed wage growth in Poland.

Different interviewees express different opinions on the question. One government adviser is quoted as saying that it is absurd that's Poland spends vast amounts of money training people that leave, and then has to educate newcomers from the East. Others have a more positive view, like the Foreign Minister who argues it makes it easier to deflect German attacks on the migrants question. Finally, some are concerned that now that they have visa free travel the Ukrainians will stop in poland only briefly before heading further West.
Bobko   
8 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

@Dirk diggler

You make a great point Dirk. It's astonishing that this narrative is not being promoted more. On many levels, one can argue that Poland is at the forefront (behind only suicidal Germany) of dealing with the current humanitarian crises developing on Europe's peripheries.

As regards the Ukrainians themselves, I agreee with you that a very small part are actual refugees. Most people that have relocated from the occupied areas of the Donbass resettled inside Ukraine or moved to Russia (depending on their beliefs and biases). The migrants coming into Poland are for the most part people from parts of the Ukraine not touched by war. However, one cannot deny that the general situation in Ukraine which is driving the migrants to emigrate (collapse of institutions, rampant corruption, explosion of violent crime) are due in no small part due to the conflict in the east fueled by Russian weapons and money.
Bobko   
7 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

Plus its a good bargaining chip with the eu since Poland can say it took in a million plus Ukrainian migrants/refugees.

Good point! However, I'm not sure Ukrainians will like being equated with refugees from Syria and North Africa. On the other hand, who's asking them...
Bobko   
4 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

Poland, on the other hand, was for a long time occupied by Russia and so Poles do not approve of Serbia invading and occupying neighbouring countries and raping/murdering people there (apart from the tiny minority of Poles

Believe you me Harry, if Poles had the wherewithal to invade and successfully occupy Russia (once they came pretty damn close), they would have no such qualms about waging war on neighbors. Instead, they are perpetually butthurt. Regarding it being a minority, just look at the pages of this forum, many of which are full of rather scary nationalist talk.

Finally, and I'm really playing devil's advocate here now, unlike Poland and Serbia which are virtually mono-ethnic countries, Russia has a centuries old history of being a multi-ethnic and multiconfessional state. More than 200 nationalities, and a sizeable Muslim and until recently Jewish minority.

All I'm trying to say is, don't make Poles out to be saints. They did their fair share of invading and looting while they had the strength.
Bobko   
4 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

You lost yourself. I`ll try to help

Please. If you make nice movies about me, and extend at least some hope of helping me regain relevancy in a war where I clearly picked the wrong side, I will also save your airmen.

Evidence the huge support for America amongst Ukrainian nationalists, who decry spineless Europe. It's a matter of convenience, and as in the case of Russians and Serbs - great georgraphic distance which obscures realities. The two barely knew anything about each other.
Bobko   
4 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

Actually, till the end of war, USA and UK supported communist Tito.

Actually, at the beginning of the war they supported the monarchy, but as soon as they saw that Tito was the only actual effective fighter in the territory they kinda sat back and didn't lift a finger.

Don't take my word for it, here's a good link:
pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4397&context=open_access_etds

Already by the Spring of 1943 it was clear the Nazis would lose, and the Big Three were busy carving up the future oundaries of Europe. Churchill and Roosevelt had no interest in helping Stalin acquire yet another satellite.
Bobko   
4 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

That's a well known fact

I would have expected them to fight within Ukraine's Azov battalion (pet battalion of Arsen Avakov, current Minister of the Interior), who, amongst other things, fight for a Ukraine free of communists and Jews, but oh well... Like I said - strange bedfellows. Also, Russians and Serbs have a thing (the great distance allows them to admire each other without noticing the flaws which close neighbors can't ignore), which goes some way towards explaining why they are fighting for DPR and LPR and not Azov.
Bobko   
4 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

Chetniks were allies to USA.

Of course the USA would support the irredentist, monarchist, and anti-communist Chetniks and not Tito's partisans. Simple geopolitics my friend.

You lost Yugoslavia because you sold your soul.
Bobko   
4 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

descendents of the Chetniks who collaborated with the Nazis, are part of the army that has invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine.

Ehh? Are you saying that there are Chetniks fighting within the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics armies? That would be highly unusual, since these two statelets are the result of a weird mix of neo-Bolshevik and Great Russian ideas. Russians have always been big fans of Yugo partisans, but not so much of Chetniks or their spiritual kin the Ustase.

Though if a credible link were provided I am willing to accept this fact. War can breed strange bedfellows.
Bobko   
4 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/27/weapons-flowing-eastern-europe-middle-east-revealed-arms-trade-syria

Im reference to above post regarding Serbian weapons in terrorist hands (to be fair, many other Balkan countries are in on the fun).
Bobko   
4 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

BEST Serbian Tenk M-84AS

Such a good tank that not a single serial production unit has been made. I have only heard of a single "concept model" being carted around defense trade shows, without a single export customer in more than ten years.

No one wants a tank for which a real production supply chain does not exist.

Serbia should stick to manufacturing small arms, where there is at least some competency preserved. Only one request, please stop selling them to insurgents throughout North Africa and the Middle East, and find yourself some real customers.
Bobko   
4 Jun 2017
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [638]

don`t worry. There are veterans among Serbians. Experienced

What will these Serbian vets fight with? The venerable M-84, which performed so well in Kuwait and Bosnia? Are you able to procure spare parts, seeing as the 100+ primary contractors, and more than 1000 subcontractors are now spread over multiple countries, most of which are not exactly fans of Serbia?