I'm curious, if the members of PF can lay out their expectations of what Russia is to do if it loses this war. It would be good for us Russians to prepare for this type of eventuality.
I will sketch out some general parameters for you to debate:
1) Russia withdraws all forces from Ukraine 2) Russia relinquishes control over Crimea, and returns it to UKR jurisdiction 3) Russia returns occupied territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson oblasts. 4) Russia pays reparations amounting to the total cost of reconstruction, plus then some. 5) Russia disarms, and creates a demilitarized zone stretching 150Km deep into our side of the border. 6) Russia relinquishes its Security Council veto, and agrees to a new framework where India and Brazil replace Russia as permanent security council members. 7) The United States is allowed to create military bases in St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Krasnodar, Novosibirsk and Vladivostok.
@Bobko I especially like point 7. I also propose point 8; Królewiec/Königsberg will return to the matrix, but I don't know yet whether for Królewiec the matrix is Poland or Germany.
Whilst all the 7 points sound absolutely brilliant, they don't really solve the problem.
Russia after implementing points 1-7 would be humiliated, defeated and boiling with desire for revenge. Kind of like Weimar Republic on steroids (and Weimar Republics on steroids tend to turn into Third Reichs on steroids).
The solution - if it is to be permanent and fair - would have to encompass both Russia and Ukraine. So, I'd say:
1. Immediate cease fire followed by honest, internationally supervised referenda in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Permanent border treaty according to the outcome of the referenda. 2. Russia, as the aggressor, would have to pay some reparations. 3. Deep and thorough desovietisation and debanderisation in Russia and Ukraine. Soviet/communist and nazi/banderists symbols and ideologies would be outlawed, as they are both criminal, led to countless atrocities and should be allowed to die in shame in the garbage dump of history. All the politicians who supported either communist or banderist ideologies would be indefinitely deprived of the right to hold any office. All the Soviet and Banderist monuments are to be razed; stadiums, streets and squares renamed.
4. Królewiec would have to go back to Poland or be independent, not to become a source of conflict in the future. 5. Ukraine would become neutral and have its neutrality guaranteed by NATO and China. 6. Bilateral deep cooperation deals in economy, industry, science, education, medicine etc. would be signed between the EU and Russia making it extremely difficult (and extremely unprofitable) to go to war.
7. Firstborn sons of all the main EU politicians would be raised and study in Russia and vice versa. In case of war they would be beheaded.
OK, maybe I got a bit carried away with point 7 but you get my drift. Be strict, be fair, clean up history, make future war impossible - that's my idea.
I don't imagine that the Russia haters here are in any way competent to judge Russian policy, but I thought even they must know where the limits of reason lie. In this sense, such an exercise could be quite fruitful.
P.S. Also, for purposes of completely domestic consumption - it may be good for a Russian that stumbles upon this forum, to understand just what the West has prepared for him. This is not to scare him/her back into the Kremlin's embrace, but simply a call to be a little more clear-eyed re: what "compromise with the West" may yield.
Points 1-4 certainly. Point 5 is moot however there must of course be full denuclearisation. The Soviet Union's place on the UN Security Council thatbr*SSia are squatting in should go to Ukraine and of course there have to be full and very thorough War Crimes trials.
And Królewiec must go to Lithuania and Poland and Transnistria and the other puppet fake states like 'Abkhazia' and others must be de-orced and returned to the countries they were seized from.
Never, ever compromise with these lying and conniving sobs. Remember 1990 and what the Western m-fers said they wouldn't do? In the West, reality longer means what it means in Moscow. Don't believe me? Ask the idiots here who won in Bakhmut.
puppet fake states like 'Abkhazia' and others must be de-orced and returned to the countries they were seized from.
I can't wait for fake states like New Mexico, Arizona, California and Texas to return to their rightful owners. Don't forget that Sonoma County, CA is Russian land for which its American buyer has not paid as was agreed, so it must go back to Russia, not "stick" to the rest of California just like Sevastopols "stick" to sticky ukrainian hands while nobody agreed to pass it to Ukraine at all.
I can't wait for fake states like New Mexico, Arizona, California and Texas to return to their rightful owners
Except a. they aren't fake, b. none have been invaded within living memory, c. none are disputed and d. any could secede from the US by a reliable democratic vote without risk of a brutal invasion by genocidal orcs.
nobody agreed to pass it to Ukraine at all.
Tough. I suppose Ukraine will have to fight you for it then.
The appetite for ethnic cleansing
De-orcing of course refers to their military occupiers. Any r*SSian citizens who lived there before those fake puppet states were created would of course be entitled to hold citizenship of the actual real countries those areas are situated in.
it's written in the American constitution that no states can secede.
The Articles of Confederation pretty clearly state that the Union is supposed to be perpetual. Furthermore, the Constitution itself declares as one of its main aims the "creation of a more perfect Union". In its capacity as arbiter of these types of questions, the Supreme Court has always ruled in favor of the Union being indissoluble.
Then of course, there is that precedent when 11 states decided they would no longer like to be part of the Union. I may be mistaken, but I think the US lost 2% of its total population then, or about 25% of the South's male population between the ages of 18-24.
The Union kicked the South's teeth in so hard, that they are still complaining about Yankees down there. Very free, very democratic secession - yes.
Should they do so, I doubt there's be an invasion. Calexit does have its supporters.
Anyway, Novichok is simply trying to distract from the actual issue. The terms of the impending r*SSian surrender which certainly involved them getting the hell out of their puppet states like 'Transnistria' and 'Abkhazia'.
Yes, I thought I didn't need to remind you of Livonia and Estland, which were bought by Russia from the Swedish Crown in 1721, and Kurland, which was bought from Duke Biron in 1795. But for those who haven't even bothered to study their own constitution, I suppose I should remind you that Estonia and Latvia were recognized as independent states by a third party (the Bolsheviks), who at the same time renounced the legal succession to the Russian Empire. It looks like we walked into a park and got the rights to part of that park from an alcoholic sitting on a bench under a tree. ;) So, this fake countries should return to their legal owner as well, without any doubts.
And which have subsequently seceded and are recognised by the global community as sovereign states. Unlike 'Transnistria' and 'Abkhazia'.
r*SSia is already humiliating itself daily in their Three Day Special Military Operation so there's plenty of room for more humiliation.
And there's no need for them to have a 'Federation' either. Doubtless when some of its constituent parts are empowered, they'll see how life is better when they gat out of r*SSia's malign orbit.
The priority of course is denuclearisation, War Crimes Trials and Reparations for the immense damage they've caused to Ukraine.
You don't have any, unless the citizens of those countries consented to their homes being feudally sold from under them by one foreign power to another.
What makes a country an independent sovereign state is international recognition. Irredentist fantasies by sick r*SSian imperialists are irrelevant.
Russia losing is as likely as me becoming a transgender "woman"
No Rich, that is more likely than Russia winning this war. Russia are losing big time,Russian revolutionaries are already attacking Moscow...and the Ukrainians have not even started their counter offensive,which believe me will surprise and shock most people,not least the Russians.....watch Russia crumble when that counter offensive comes.....Putin will be gone within two or three years at most.
