Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates

Another forecast, this time from Daniel Pers.

Duda: 40.6%
Trzaskowski: 30.1%
Hołownia: 10%
K-Kamysz: 7.2%
Bosak: 7.2%
Biedroń: 3.4%

His province-by-province forecast is here: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VFcDX/5/

Well, we shouldn`t reject them so easily. Do you want them to stay so for ever? We need to educate them. I am doing my bit of work already. How about you?? :):)


Trzask i po długopisie! Snap and Mr Pen-Duda is gone!!! hahaha Performed by Franz Maurer. Why? Because "that was a bad Pen."

• 
  
  

Marcin Palade predicts the following:

Duda: 40,0% - 44,0%
Trzaskowski: 28,1% - 31,1%
Hołownia: 8,8% - 10,8%
Bosak: 6,6% - 8,6%
K-Kamysz: 5,9% - 7,9%
Biedroń: 2,1% - 4,1%

44-28 would almost certainly give Duda victory. 40-31 on the other hand would put Duda into full on panic mode.

Anything is possible. In 2005 PiS won due to Tusk`s Wehrmacht grandpa. I wouldn`t be surprised if they made a similar "revelation" about Trzaskowski. The question is: Will it influence "dark folk" as it did in 2005?

It's a huge question. The big difference now is that it's much easier to fact check stuff online, and also, Duda's attacks are seemingly doing nothing to endear him to undecided voters.

I fully expect them to try and smear Trzaskowski with some terrible accusations in the 2nd round if the first round goes badly for Duda (i.e. worse than 40%).

Very good nose Pawian. I have been saying that PiS has some dirt on Trashkowski involving a dead prostitute but they will only use this information if they feel they are going to lose second round

That would almost certainly result in widespread revulsion against Duda for using such a thing. Voters would never support such a dirty allegation, and it would scream of absolute desperation on the part of PiS.

a better translation of 'ciemny' in that context in English is 'dim'.....

A male one on top of that. And still hidden in Trzaskowski`s closet. hahaha


I was thinking about the Dark Ages which symbolise the demise of sound reasoning at the time. :)

The "Dark Ages" is a historical periodization traditionally referring to the Middle Ages (c. 5th-15th century) that asserts that a demographic, cultural, and economic deterioration occurred in Western Europe following the decline of the Roman Empire.

Because he'd do as badly, or worse than, JRW when he stood for election, i.e. Miserable failure.

Both PO and foreign intelligence services will have vetted Trzaskowski thoroughly. Voters are unlikely to care about sex scandals these days or minor drug use and PiS are never going to win a fight about corruption.

How about Duda go on Tv, explain his policies, explain why he is not a puppet and how he intends to govern in his second term. Revolutionary I know but would be more interesting than some bad Netflix rip off about a dead prostitute.

Another poll.

Duda: 41.38%
Trzaskowski: 29.86%
Hołownia: 11.18%
Bosak: 7.34%
K-Kamysz; 6.55%
Biedroń: 2.93%

Second round:

Duda: 51%
Trzaskowski: 49%

Hołownia: 52%
Duda: 48%

Duda: 50%
K-Kamysz: 50%

Duda: 58%
Bosak: 42%

Duda: 56%
Biedroń: 44%

Trzaskowski will be in Warsaw tomorrow to coordinate a response to the flooding there. I fully expect Trzaskowski to make huge political capital out of the fact that Duda will be in the US while he's on the ground dealing with a natural disaster.

Duda talking about unemployment levels BEFORE the pandemic may have pooped the bed yesterday. Considering most experts already peg Poland's unemployment rate at about 8.5% before the actual second quarter numbers come out next month, he may end up looking very stupid right before the second round.

Calling the opposition a "virus" worse than coronavirus may have gotten him in trouble. Has definitely not sat well with others.

I have to say, the Trump approach to attack speech being used by Duda makes PiS look childish. It suits Trump simply because he has accomplished a lot and can get away with it because of that. But PiS and Duda come across as ignorant. Watching him on TV is kind of funny because he says nothing new, its all the same stuff all the time. His turnout in Krakow the other day, not so good, and probably wasted a day here.

But he will be in USA, which is one day there flying, one day on the ground and another day in the air heading back. Three days right before the first round out of the on the ground election cycle is not exactly a genius stroke of planning.

Please, don't fix Duda. Times are troubling.

All the more reason to get a president who can act on his own initiative instead of meekly waiting for the party leader to tell him what to do....

@delph Duda visiting flood areas today as well, so any Political Capital for Trashkowski was lost. Trashkowski was caught in two brazen lies within 5 minutes yesterday. First that he was not in the Sejm which voted to raise the retirement age, and then he corrected himself and said He was a member but voted against the motion. Trully a despicable untrustworthy character.

Well Duda has been claiming to have a spinal column and functioning testes for years so they're kind of even

@amiga500
PiS and Duda truly untrustworthy and despicable. Calling any opposition candidate a virus worse than Coronavirus? Really? What kind of dithering idiot says something like that? What kind of idiot comes out talking about unemployment numbers two days before the next set of unemployment numbers comes out? There's only one and he is the current guy in office.

What kind of President doesn't address the number of business closures? Or the declining ZUS collections because of it? Or the declining tax revenue because of people not working and companies closing up shop? Or that the "shield" money never got to small business and billions went to cronies? Or that people who own small business are still waiting for their 5000 pln for months after they applied for it and kept their business open?

There is one group Duda has no chance with and that is people with any level of intelligence.

I don't, because they are not prone to being educated. Did you hear of an incident in Ryki where one bloke came to an electoral meeting with Duda and calmly stood there among Duda's supporters holding up a plate which said "Nie dla długopisu". He so much infuriated two of the supporters that they beat him up in front of his teen daughter. He later commented that it was a "perfect" example of the famous pro-family policy pursued by Duda and PiS.

Palade counts the latest 2nd round (without new voters) as:

Duda: 8,689,000
Trzaskowski: 8,676,000

Duda is losing ground, this much is clear. The only question is - how much?

@delphiandomine
Anyone know how many Polish citizens would be able to vote for the first time in this election? This number could actually be the number that really matters. No way young people follow Duda or PiS.

There is paradoxical situation in Serbia. Russia sending armament and people praise Poland and Duda, because transports goes via Poland. More Russians sending, more is Poland and Duda popular.

See, nothing happens without Poland.

People, Duda is not perfect but he made good decisions, too. Imagine his situation between US, Germany and Vatican. And he sided with Serbs. Of, course, USA turned the blind eye thanks to brat Corey Lewandowski and venerable Trump. But still, one can easily go mad when find himself in Duda's situation.

Not a clue actually, I'll have a look and see if I can find something.

Latest news is that PiS are planning to hold an electoral convention tomorrow where Kaczyński (!) will talk about youth issues. Hołownia has ridiculed it already by comparing it to the PRL, and it seems to be an act of desperation on the part of PiS. There's gossip that they'll present a major new legislative initative, which I reckon will be the extension of 500+ to students.

They weren`t neither brazen nor lies. :):) He just forgot about it. It was visible when he was reminded about those facts by his assistants while still on the stand and came back the mike to correct himself. .


You weren`t so convinced in the past. Am I wrong or your views have evolved? :)


Yes, I read about it but let`s be honest, the opposition fans can be equally brutal. As I said earlier, emotions are high.


My eldest son didn`t vote in two last elections though he was already eligible. He didn`t care. How he vows he is going to participate coz he`s had enough of idiotic right wingers. My blood! hahahaha

Oh, brat Kacz is also popular here and his twin brother is venerated as hero. I hope plemeniti i odani brat Lech finaly gets monument in Serbia.

Morawiecki turned up today in Poznań, and what's remarkable is just how few people turned up. I would have expected much, much more for an appearance by the PM, even in Poznań.

If we take the number of older Poles who died since the last election, a majority of them presumed PiS supporters, and subtract them from PiS votes......Then add the 1997 to 2002 birth year first time presidential election voters to anyone but PiS.......I think this demographic profile is completely ignored in polling.

I think the demographic profile of those Poles who came home when the virus hit is also being ignored. Those who want a better economy and not more free money.

Maybe I am off the mark. I just don't see the support for Duda in the countryside that they are counting on. Young people are motivated and mobilized.

Because it wasn`t advertised on PiS TV. There is a war going on between fractions in PiS, read an article about it, Morawiecki is believed to damage Duda`s chances:

wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-2020-tvp-morawiecki-odsuniety-od-kampanii-dudy/28b6jqj

On a funny note, Trzaskowski`s men made a nice parody of Duda, especially his infamous stupid faces.

youtu.be/nzPDnbeL95g

Whoever heard of this designer? The author of this article had a bit of a problem. According to them TVP had an interview with a designer praising Agata Duda style. The only problem is...no one heard about him

aszdziennik.pl/129855,dramat-agaty-dudy-jej-styl-w-tvp-chwali-projektant-ktorego-chyba-nie-ma

To be honest, Duda is parodying himself now. The latest disgrace involves disabled children being forced to meet Duda so he could use them for PR purposes.