The topic of presidential elections has been undergoing kaleidescope-like shifting recently.
Marcin Palade's latest forecasts:
Second round: includes Polonia and those who voted for a different candidate in the first round, does *not* include new voters.
Duda 8,832,000 (50.9%)
Trzaskowski 8,529,000 (49.1%)
If we assume that Palade is accurate, then Duda has a slight advantage. The number that I've been stating all along - 42% - appears to be the magic number in the 1st round. Right now, PiS appear to be making mistake after mistake, and Duda's campaign has completely stalled. Even the attempts to smear Trzaskowski as a liar were very quickly met with a list of Duda's broken promises, and it seems that every attack by Duda is hurting him more than helping him