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Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates


Spike31 2 | 2,109
19 Jun 2020 #1,351
Konfederacja would be major winners. They could dictate key policy points to PiS

Now we're talking. Sure, that would be an optimal solution which I suggested on PF when the party was created in Dec 2018. It's somewhat modelled on Fidesz-Jobbik dynamics in Hungary.

The thing is that that PiS could find a common voice with Konfederacja on some ideological platform like:

- anti militant LGBT propaganda

- anti multikulti agenda

- judicial reforms, where two parties argue about the details but not about the need for those reforms

but not on the other which revolves around economy and personal freedoms like:

- capitalism instead of socialism in the economy

- tax laws

- liberal gun laws

- Polonization of the economy in form of Polish private capital takeovers not nationalization by state.

Among PiS MEPs there are some conservatists but there are also some totalitarian minded fossils who would not be out of place in Lewica or any other left wing party. All of them, more or less, are being held in place by Kaczynski who likes to model himself on J. Pilsudski. And Marshal Pilsudski wasn't himself a full-fledged conservatist.

To be fair it makes sense. They are new entity and will gain more by being independent than by some shady deals

Kondederacja doesn't have political structures as large as the other political parties (yet) but it does have an integrity, a very rare commodity in politics.

PS: Who would have taugh that Konfederacja will find its advocates in form of an old Scottish unionist and a young Polish feminist ;-)
Ziemowit 13 | 4,279
19 Jun 2020 #1,352
Does Duda or JK really think Trump or the USA want to antagonize Putin on behalf of Poland?

People are being fed with many myths in Poland. One of them is that Trump is very sensitive to Poland's role in the world and this sensivity has been gained thanks to Duda and his party. But it's not only PiS which are so happy to promote such myths. The roots of the conviction that Poland is something special to the world goes back to the 19th century when our great poets of the time seeing Poland's gloomy reality of being occupied by foreign powers had developed the idea of Poland's messianic role in the world.

In the real world, Trump is skillful enough to sell and buy Duda and PiS a hundred times round without them even noticing it or noticing it only after it is too late. And yes, without the USA, the NATO alliance would be a joke, but people like Ironside will never realize that having been preoccupied for so long with searching for "Soviets" in Poland at the same time living comfortably in the so-called "rotten" West.
Ziemowit 13 | 4,279
19 Jun 2020 #1,353
Who would have taugh that Konfederacja will find its advocates in form of an old Scottish unionist and a young Polish feminist

You've gladly omitted the part where she said she'd be prepared to vote Konfederacja only when a lobotomy was performed on her.
Lenka 3 | 2,566
19 Jun 2020 #1,354
it does have an integrity, a very rare commodity in politics.

0h I wasn't talking about it on the basis of integrity but more pros-cons/gains-loss. At the moment their support is growing and they want to show themselves as true alternative. If they start to make deals they lose that. So why take the risk? They may lose their face (especially with younger, more naive voters) and the deals can't be as great as they would be once they have more negotiating power.
Ironside 50 | 10,939
19 Jun 2020 #1,355
American companies are not making "billions" of dollars in Poland.

I mean some American industries. I'm not talking ab9ut some small fry. you people talking politics you should know those things. Do you need a referral every time I post something.

There is a reason they are up Trump's a$$ for the military base.

Yes, they want to show it to the voters as their accomplishment. Poland doesn't need to push for a base. There troops on Polish soil already and that is good enough.

500 zl

Are you shout of cash> Hence you're waiting for PiS to lose an election so you could assume your 'activates' whatever they were?
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
19 Jun 2020 #1,356
@Ironside
Actually there is a troop pullback from Germany that PiS and Duda asked to have transferred to Poland, Trump said no and brought them home. Duda is a pawn for JK and Trump will use him the same way. Any country wanting a puppet for a President is going to get what they deserve, nothing.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
19 Jun 2020 #1,357
And suddenly TVP are giving Bosak plenty of attention. Is their internal polling suggesting that Duda loses without his endorsement?

And another poll.

Duda: 41.3%
Trzaskowski: 28.2%
K-Kamysz: 8.3%
Hołownia: 8.1%
Bosak: 4.8%
Biedroń; 3.8%

If we take this poll at face value, then it means that Duda has taken some support away from Bosak. I don't believe so, although it is possible that some voters have switched in order to preserve Duda's lead.

PS: Who would have taugh that Konfederacja will find its advocates in form of an old Scottish unionist

...I've never voted for anyone other than the Scottish National Party in the UK in my life, and I'm a member of the both the SNP and Òmnium Cultural in Catalonia.
mafketis 24 | 9,373
19 Jun 2020 #1,358
Òmnium Cultural in Catalonia

Not such a good cause.....
Crow 146 | 9,113
19 Jun 2020 #1,359
Biedroń; 3.8%

What is result of this bad poll result?

I mean reason?
Spike31 2 | 2,109
19 Jun 2020 #1,360
...I've never voted for anyone other than the Scottish National Part

Acknowledged.

And another poll.

Opinion polls do not give Trzaskowski more than 30% in the 1st round, and usually oscillate around 28%. And we're talking about opinion polls which were usually pro "liberal"(remember when Komorowski "won" the elections with 73% in 2015? ;-)

I wonder how they explain his sudden boost to 48% in 2nd round. Are they counting that all of those who didn't vote for Duda in the 1st round will vote for Trzaskowski in the 2nd? Pure political fantasy...
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
19 Jun 2020 #1,361
I wonder how they explain his sudden boost to 48% in 2nd round.

twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1273698159617814530 might explain it. For comparison, Duda's transfers: twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1273697335609090049/ and those who will abstain: twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1273698861765267456

Palade sympathises with PiS, so take that into account. Bosak is potentially the kingmaker in the 2nd round, but I just cannot see any advantage for him in endorsing anyone. On a personal level, Konfederacja are also being accused of being PO stooges online by Duda supporters...

remember when Komorowski "won" the elections with 73% in 2015

Sure, it's a textbook example of how a candidate facing re-election can crash from a great height as a result of a very poor campaign.
kondzior 12 | 1,200
19 Jun 2020 #1,362
The problem of journalism is that somewhere along the way information ceased to matter, now everyone has to "create a narrative", they already teach it at journalism schools, so it's not an accident at work, this is apparently expected from them by so-called market.

If someone wants to know what is going on, they would have to take Radio 24 half a day and the other half Tok FM and calculate the average from it. A normal man, I suppose, would lost his mind after a week of such a treatment.

I recommend trying Tygodnik Powszechny, kutafiany buried themselves behind paywall, but for example, with some pleasure I found an article there:
tygodnikpowszechny.pl/kartograficzna-wojna-o-dach-swiata-163765

You don't read it somehow with imagination, but it is informative.
For some time I have tried to find a counterpart of such material in the rest of Media Hostile to Poland , but it seems that describing such a topic exactly exceeds the typical intern.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
19 Jun 2020 #1,363
I recommend trying Tygodnik Powszechny

No argument there. It's probably one of the best sources of information in Poland.
Spike31 2 | 2,109
19 Jun 2020 #1,364
it's a textbook example

It's a texbook example of artificially pumping up candidate's numbers before the elections in a false hope that it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Palade sympathises with PiS

Good for him.

Would be nice if he added a link to the source (where are the numbers are taken from) and stated the calculation method. I want to see some hard data that I can comment on.
mafketis 24 | 9,373
19 Jun 2020 #1,365
A guy in Gdańsk was stopped by the police for having an anti-PiS message on his car

wiadomosci.onet.pl/trojmiasto/gdansk-policja-zatrzymala-go-na-kilka-godzin-bo-mial-hasla-przeciwko-dudzie/gvr6nxw

just what some people here want.....
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
19 Jun 2020 #1,366
Would be nice if he added a link to the source (where are the numbers are taken from)

It is a big failing of his. Still, given his fairness in general, I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.

polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1960778,1,stanley-dla-polityki-w-drugiej-turze-trzaskowski-juz-remisuje-z-duda.read - Stanley is pretty reliable as well, and he's always open to explaining to interested people how he got those numbers.

I think one thing that you need to take into account here - Trzaskowski's campaign got off to a flying start, and he's been very careful not to make mistakes where PiS could sink him. His public appearances are confident and he hasn't lost control, while he's also ridiculing TVP on a daily basis for their clumsy attempts to smear him. On the other hand, Duda's appearances have been chaotic - his supporters are seen to attack people, Duda seems wild and uncontrolled, and he's completely ignoring the press while jumping from topic to topic.

wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polityka/Wybory-prezydenckie-2020/Krzysztof-Bosak-jestem-pewien-ze-wsrod-wyborcow-Konfederacji-sa-homoseksualisci-WYWIAD

Worth reading. Bosak makes it crystal clear that if he doesn't enter the 2nd round, then he won't endorse anyone and will leave the decision to Konfederacja's electorate to decide based on their own feelings. He also makes it clear that Wilk's recent words about supporting Trzaskowski express just how annoyed people are in the "authentic right" with PiS.

It seems to me that more than ever, PiS made a huge mistake in assuming that Konfederacja would automatically support them in the culture war.
Spike31 2 | 2,109
19 Jun 2020 #1,367
The main challenge lies in replacing PiS with Konfederacja without ever letting POKO and Leftists rule again, which would be a disaster for Poland.
Same goes for the parliament as well as presidential election, which is why I'll vote for Duda in the 2nd round.

A transition period of cooperation between the rising Konfederacja and PiS would be optimal. At least until Konfederacja would grow strong enough to takeover PiS's place.

My feeling is that Left side would be much more upset with Konfederacja's rule than with PiS right now. And they are only supporting Konfederacja right now to take a swing at PiS. Which is a very short sighted policy on their side but I'm very glad that they cannot think in terms of long range political strategy :-)
amiga500 2 | 222
20 Jun 2020 #1,368
At least until Konfederacja would grow strong enough to takeover PiS's place.

Don't be silly, Like Jobbik Konfederacja will be junior partner. We will give you seat at table of course, with choice of the finest meats.
Lenka 3 | 2,566
20 Jun 2020 #1,369
My feeling is that Left side would be much more upset with Konfederacja's rule than with PiS

Considering what Bosak thinks and says about left wingers it's not a surprise. But centrist too. Great example is the abortion law. Despite moves on both sides to change it one way or another the majority accepts that the compromise works. I wonder how people would react if Konfederacja got into power and we had the minimal state plus anti abortion laws with all those heavily disabled kids.
Ziemowit 13 | 4,279
20 Jun 2020 #1,370
I wonder how people would react if Konfederacja got into power

You don't have to worry about this. Konfedercja, despite Bosak's dreams, will NEVER become a major political force in Poland. They are simply too ideological to make it to that end. Readiness for compromise is a necessity in politics and if a party is not prepared to achieve some now and again, it may either finish in the dustbin or remain on the political outskirts for ever..
mafketis 24 | 9,373
20 Jun 2020 #1,371
We will give you seat at table of course, with choice of the finest meats

Saving a place at the trough?
Lenka 3 | 2,566
20 Jun 2020 #1,372
You don't have to worry about this.

I agree completely, I was just making a point.
They are simply too radical for most. And of course in order to become a big player they would have to grow their politicians base. One Bosak won't be enough and it seems most of them are bat s*it crazy
Ziemowit 13 | 4,279
20 Jun 2020 #1,373
One Bosak won't be enough

He won't. In addition his looks are those of a school-boy who was left in class to repeat his term as he wasn't good enough to get a promotion. I wonder if that other never-fully-grown clown, Janusz Korwin-Mikke is with them still. Basically, Konfederacja are boys w krótkich majteczkach (didn't Bosak take part in the "Dancing with the Stars" TV show?) who think of themselves as being capable to run a country while in reality they are not capable of running a night club.

A bunch of delusional clowns, so to speak.
amiga500 2 | 222
20 Jun 2020 #1,374
Good campaign stop making fun of Trashkowski, quite light and effective i think
youtu.be/s6WO0H3SDQc
Spike31 2 | 2,109
20 Jun 2020 #1,375
Don't be silly, Like Jobbik Konfederacja will be junior partner.

PiS is Kaczynski and Kaczynski is PiS. It is a common practice in large organizations that a leader removes all the ambitious challengers from his surroundings. Think about it for a second. Who, in this very moment, could replace Kaczynski in PiS: vanilla Morawiecki (who was pushed by Kaczynski as his successor but has the charisma of a block of wood)? Ziobro? Gowin? Or a partisan Macierewicz perhaps?

If for some reason Kaczysnki would be gone those junior leaders would jump to their throats to fight for what's left but none of them could replace Kaczynski. Without him PiS will quickly degenerate.

Anyway, look what happened to PO when Tusk left: Kopacza, Schetyna, Budka...need I have to say more?

anti abortion laws with all those heavily disabled kids.

Interesting that you've mentioned that because Korwin-Mikke spoke about it and said that more or less "women shouldn't be forced to give birth to disabled children"

dorzeczy.pl/kraj/136663/korwin-mikke-ze-zrozumieniem-o-aborcji-jezeli-kobieta-nosi-w-sobie-potworka.html
Ironside 50 | 10,939
20 Jun 2020 #1,376
people like Ironside

dude why you (others as well) talk for me. Do yo know my opinion on the matter? No! Do you know what I think? No. So why the hell you are making assumption and telling other what I think? If you can't understand what I mean - ask. What you do and what maf does too is just so lame. You're old lame gossiping washerwomen.

Korwin-Mikke s

I knew that regardless of his alleged IQ that dude is a tool in more way that one/ I get he is making a living by being on the fringe of politics but still ...
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
20 Jun 2020 #1,377
Who, in this very moment, could replace Kaczynski in PiS

Brudziński, easily.

Anyway, another day, another embarrassing situation from PiS. Now they're promising a fire engine to the commune (Maf, good translation?) in each province that has the highest turnout at the election. Of course, only those with under 20,000 residents.

I can't even begin to express how stupid and idiotic this is.
mafketis 24 | 9,373
20 Jun 2020 #1,378
Maf, good translation?

I prefer 'municipality' though that's not good either.... for me commune still has hippy overtones...I kind of like 'community' but that's not specific enough and prone to other misunderstandings - in general it's hard to translate Polish government terms into English because a translation that works for one place won't work in others (not just countries - local government terminology tends to vary a lot from state to state in the US as well, I've heard 'community' used as a form term in some states but not in others....

The fire truck promise is extremely corrupt (what else can be expected at this stage?) and suggests that they are really worried about the countryside
Ironside 50 | 10,939
20 Jun 2020 #1,379
(Maf, good translation?)

district that would be it, eh? Although it wouldn't work for our American friends that well, better would be township. If they are clueless as to that administrative puzzle then municipality would work well.
mafketis 24 | 9,373
20 Jun 2020 #1,380
that would be it, eh?

Maybe someplace, the point is that Poland has a unified terminology for various levels of local government and administration and "English" doesn't (and sometimes single countries, like the US, don't).

Also i wouldn't be surprised if the constituent parts of the UK had different systems (not to mention Ireland which probably has its own system).

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