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Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates


Spike31 2 | 2,110
9 Jun 2020 #1,111
where Spike gets his information, given that almost all polls show the race to be very close

Simple. His score is not a result of his overall brilliance, which he lacks, but a reflection of crushing incompetency of Kidawa-Blonska who has brough POKO to its knees. The rapid growth of Trzaskowski that we are seeing now is a restoration of a regular pre-quarantine, pre-Kidawa, share of voters among candidates.

Around 30% is a ceiling after which he will have to start eating his "liberal" competitors to gather up some more. He will have to be more agressive than them (and definitely more aggressive than Duda), more frantically anti-PiS than them and we know how Poles perceive the aggressors in politics.

The whole battle will take place over the center and undecided voters and Duda have more qualities to win them. What works agains Duda are Szumowski and his moronic "quarantine measures" and appealingly bad Kurski's public TV with its low-quality propaganda.

What works against "Czaskoski" is that he is who he is. And also that he needs to open his mouth from time to time. If he could remain silent trough the whole campaign then maybe he would get a chance to become a president.

Normalcy is to accept differences.

Sure, as long as sexual preferences remain in private not in public sphere and tolerance is not confused with affirmation.
Crow 146 | 9,122
9 Jun 2020 #1,112
Sure, as long as sexual preferences remain in private

I agree with this.

We here have one important conclusion. The level of freedom for LGBT is to contain manipulation of world circles ready to use LGBT. Actually, circles that using every antagonism within any society to achieve its own aims. That is why I am satisfied with how Serbia responded to the challenge.
Miloslaw 8 | 3,212
9 Jun 2020 #1,113
That is why I am satisfied with how Serbia responded to the challenge

Yes, but you really need to understand that in the great scheme of things Serbia really does not matter....totally insignificant....
You really need to wake up to global reality instead of dreaming of your "Greater Serbia".....it ain't never gonna happen...
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
9 Jun 2020 #1,114
Around 30% is a ceiling after which he will have to start eating his liberal competitors to gather up some more.

Why does he need to gain more? All the polls are showing the same story - that if Trzaskowski scores 30% and Duda scores ~40%, then it's going to be much harder for Duda to find votes in the 2nd round than Trzaskowski. Even Marcin Palade (well known PiS-sympathiser and political scientist, but a fair one) is making it clear that Duda can only rely on 20-25% of Bosak's votes in the 2nd round, while Trzaskowski will pick up 30-35% of them.

For Trzaskowski, there's nothing to be gained by attacking other candidates. Biedroń tried to attack Hołownia and failed. Hołownia tried to attack Trzaskowski and failed. Why would Trzaskowski make the same mistake, when he could just reach out to their electorates after the 1st round, especially given that there's not much sympathy for Duda among the electorate of the other candidates?

As for Trzaskowski speaking - he seems to have done pretty well to get 1.6m signatures in 5 days, especially given that no other candidate managed it in 5 weeks.

The whole battle will take place over the center and undecided voters and Duda have more qualities to win them.

However, it's not that simple. He has two choices - he can either try and win over the centre ground, or he can go full radical and try and win over Bosak's electorate. Either strategy is dangerous, yet he needs to win one of them convincingly. The electoral mathematics are the same ones that caused PiS to lose in the Senate - they ignored the threat from Konfederacja and ended up losing the Senate as a result.

Interesting note: four debates are planned now.

Newsweek - 15.06.2020
TVP - 17.06.2020
TVN - 19.06.2020 (possible change)
Polsat - 22.06.2020

The Polsat one will be the one to watch.
Crow 146 | 9,122
9 Jun 2020 #1,115
How does it not matter? Who gave wings to Poland if not Serbs? Hay man, we gave you Golden Age. It did matter. It matter.

Who initiated your independence after 1918? Serbs.

Who gave one Tesla? Serbs.

There wouldn`t be these elections in Poland if it wasn`t for Serbs. If you waited for the Vatican and western Europe you would extinct waiting.

If we waited for them to came in our aid against Ottomans, if Poland didn`t come to support us, we would extinct waiting. If we were extinct, we wouldn`t be able to repay a debt to Poland.
Spike31 2 | 2,110
10 Jun 2020 #1,116
that Duda can only rely on 20-25% of Bosak's votes in the 2nd round, while Trzaskowski will pick up 30-35%.

Which would only suggest that K.Bosak is very effective at gaining support from centrists. Obviously the core voters and party political progamme are always going to be conservative and right wing yet without support from centrist voters it would be impossible to win the main prize. The main goal is to swing the centrist electorate to the right and to make a new centre located more to the right. This process has already started after 2015.

Obviosly, I will support Duda if K. Bosak won't get to second round. Duda would be the best out of the remaining candidates and he would guarantee further judicial reforms or simply put decomunisation of the courts. Most of my friends would also vote for Duda as a "lesser evil" option but I'm glad to know that K. Bosak has started taking over centrist voters. What K.Bosak is doing is brilliant: he is winning centrists without corrupting Konfederacja's political program and losing the ideological core electorate.

K. Bosak main goal for this campaign is to show himself and score the best possible result to show that right wing nationalist candidate is a viable option and not some political folklore like the mainstream media are trying to picture it. He is a young promising candidate and Konfederacja is a young party. We need time and resources to become a really big political force.

He has two choices - he can either try and win over the centre ground, or he can go full radical.

Not very likely. Only someone who is not deep into Polish politics would think that A.Duda will go "full radical". He will only win the elections by being himself which is the opposite of "full radical". And he may only "get radical" regarding issues which have overwhelming support of the majority of Polish society - hitting Trzaskowski for his lgbt agenda is one of those things.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
10 Jun 2020 #1,117
@amiga500
I don't recall reading where Trzaskowski has said he will support all EU edicts or programs. I don't think he is that stupid either. The resistance to forced immigration is actually something I like about Poland. Not PiS, but Polish people in general regardless of party dont want this immigration from third world countries.

I also dont think that the LGBT movement would be a big part of Trzaskowski campaign. Again, he is too smart to let a fringe minority group open him up to attacks. He is Polish and knows the majority of people dont want it. In office he would likely make some conditions more friendly but I dont see him ever giving full rights. This is not a campaign of extremist party values.

Just spent the day in Opole yesterday. Duda has nothing happening there. The others have support everywhere. As I suspected, when I asked colleagues about the new 500 pln promise for holidays, they all laughed. One said, "Yes, two nights hotel in Opole is what you get for 500, until you add VAT. Its not worth leaving home for." This morning and afternoon in Chorzow and Katowice and as I have been there before I expect more of the same. People are simply tired of Duda and PiS. They haven't accomplished anything on their own
Spike31 2 | 2,110
10 Jun 2020 #1,118
Again, he is too smart to let a fringe minority group open him up to attacks

It is not up for him to remind to public opinion his past political actions in supporting LGBTQi+? (I hope I didn't miss any particular sexual and/or mental deviations for which it stands for) indoctrination but for his political opponents.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
10 Jun 2020 #1,119
@Spike31
Not opposing or saying that certain groups deserve certain rights is not supporting a group in totality. There are a whole bunch of Gays in Warsaw, like it or not they are there and they are Polish. So if they are going to be there, they should be able to inherit each others things at death and obtain medical information if someone is ill. Just as much as couples who live together, or cant get married in the church should be able to do the same things.

Adoption should be off the table for LGBTQ IMO. So should certain teachings that being LGBTQ is "ok". Because those two things are not socially excepted norms in a civil society. If they want those things people can move to where those things are practiced.

If his political opponents focus on this narrow issue, they will be destroyed in the general election. There is only one opponent that can even dare bring it up and thats Duda. But Duda is so weak on nearly every other issue he cant win a fight. I really cant wait to watch these debates. The challengers are smart, they wont attack each other. They know its more important to beat PiS than it is who actually beats them.

Still, none of these parties have presented a vision for the future. What about that? Forget the free money bribery. How about some real substantive growth plan?

Back from Katowice and Chorzow today. Opinion of people there is that the miners got paid 100% and they couldn't, is being seen as another bribe for votes. But the miners, they are still unhappy about not working, and that they were subjected to this when the government knew months ago that confined spaces place people at greater risk. They think the government used them deliberately putting them at risk. Amazing what you can hear from people in public when they are upset.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
10 Jun 2020 #1,120
If his political opponents focus on this narrow issue, they will be destroyed in the general election.

The thing is that Duda's attempting to make something out of nothing, and it isn't working. He's left looking stupid, because while Trzaskowski is proposing real solutions to real issues, Duda is busy focusing on things like the Karta Rodziny. Young people with children will be looking for solid financial support, not vague meaningless declarations.

People need money and solutions, not random declarations that have no legal power whatsoever.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
10 Jun 2020 #1,121
Karta Rodziny

Ok. Duda is actually starting to become funny. He just a few months ago said he would consider signing a rights law for some gays, outside of adoption and other items. Today he goes on a homophobia rant on Karta Rodziny. He said not long ago that he deals with people who have a different sexual orientation all the time and it doesnt bother him. Clearly it bothers someone. Maybe JK? Hardening the core of PiS supporters is the absolute dumbest strategy, who ever is running this campaign for Duda is really either a moron or someone secretly working for the opposition! lol
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
10 Jun 2020 #1,122
, who ever is running this campaign for Duda is really either a moron

I just can't make sense of it. It's not important for most people right now, and it could backfire badly if Trzaskowski ignores it and focuses on real problems.

For me, it's a clear sign that they're in panic mode.

Konfederacja have already ridiculed Duda, saying that it's a clear attempt to buy their supporters and nothing else. What's fascinating is that Konfederacja supporters are also ridiculing it - I've seen numerous quotes where they've made it clear that they either don't care about LGBT people, or something along the lines of "they've had 5 years to introduce this and they haven't done it, why trust them now?". Others are saying that while they don't want LGBT ideology in schools/public life, they have nothing against LGBT people as people, and therefore they think Duda is a dick. It's astonishing stuff.

If Bosak's support rejects Duda to the level that is speculated (up to 75% of them not voting for Duda), then Duda loses. It's that clear.
Spike31 2 | 2,110
10 Jun 2020 #1,123
There are a whole bunch of Gays in Warsaw, like it or not

I'm not negating the fact that homosexuals ("Gays" with capital letters? Is it some kind of a new secular deity now?) consists of a small fraction of a given society so there must a whole bunch of them living in 1.7 mil. Warsaw alone.

And I couldn't care less about that fact because it is a private sphere of life for every civilized human being and yet they've forged their sexual preferences into an ideological movements, like lgbt, aimed at subverting the natural Christian order on which our civilization and a cultural identity it is based on.

It's not important for most people right now

Sure, because people are preoccupied fighting Chinese flu, right? ;-) Well, that fuel is slowly running out and even the slowest persons are starting to realize that they've been played.

focuses on real problems

Back to square one: militant lgbt movement is a real problem because it touches, and trying to corrupt, the very basis of a Christian civilization itself. Fortunately, most Poles realize that.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
10 Jun 2020 #1,124
Sounds like you've just quoted something from Nowogrodzka.

militant lgbt movement is a real problem

It's not a real problem for most people right now. Real problems include: being released, not having money, the "anti-crisis shield" being a joke, etc etc. It's plainly obvious that Duda's campaign staff are clutching at straws, not least because we all remember how Duda said that he would sign legislation relating to civil unions.
Lazarus 1 | 115
10 Jun 2020 #1,125
a whole bunch of them living in 1.7 mil. Warsaw

Yep, that's why they have an annual parade. Like the Polish fascists have an annual parade. Except the fascists don't pay taxes in Warsaw. Or anywhere else.

the natural Christian order

Is that the one where unruly children should, according to the bible, be stoned to death? Or the bible which, as Jesus said, forbids "exacting interest"? Or the one the forbids eating lobster. Although at least Jim can manage the last one, given the price of lobster.
Ironside 50 | 10,939
11 Jun 2020 #1,126
Like the Polish fascists have an annual parade

Stop spewing nonsense, there more fascists in the region you call from that in whole Poland.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
11 Jun 2020 #1,127
Watching and reading the news, and it really is comical how Duda is being portrayed now with this Karta Rodziny. With all the children standing behind him holding these propaganda cards? What are they thinking? These kids don't even know what is going on, and they think using them will sway voters who have not decided? Again, all this does is harden the core of support and likely makes people who are undecided go the other way.

Maybe there is some truth to JK wanting to have Duda gone. Have someone to blame, look for a fight to win someplace else. It wouldn't be a smart strategy though when PiS would turn into a much less powerful group for five years. Who knows if JK is even around in five years.

This is certainly entertaining now. Watching hardliners squirm at the thought of young people making the rules. It was going to happen eventually. Like it will happen in other countries. The old ways simply aren't what the majority of people want today. People are concerned with progress, measurable impacts on their lives. Not rhetoric and inaction.
Spike31 2 | 2,110
11 Jun 2020 #1,128
young people making the rules. It was going to happen eventually.

I have to agree with you. Konfederacja, which is the youngest right-wing political force with a young and dedicated electorate is the future.

exit polls 2019 for oko.press



PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
11 Jun 2020 #1,129
Its an interesting exit poll. One of the reasons I think most polls are off is because the government ordered people home at the beginning of the pandemic. Lots of young people came home from their jobs abroad, lots of them who are going to be politically active in 17 days that may or may not have been if they were still abroad.

While PiS is certainly the choice with the older demographic, their numbers really jump after 50 yrs of age. KO is steady throughout every demographic. Konfederacja drops off after 30 but the collective opposition is pretty steady when you look at things.

PiS has really pooped the bed, the campaign is really laughable on their end. Only people who blindly follow the party will buy into what they are selling. Trzaskowski comes off as young, intelligent, energetic, and representing the "Poland" that people want to have the world see. I he also resonates with some of the older demographic who simply want a change in the message. The PiS message is really just more of the same. It doesn't energize people. 17 days to stop a tidal wave that grows every day is not something that is likely to happen at this point.
cms neuf 1 | 1,852
11 Jun 2020 #1,130
Mission accomplished with this Karta Rodzina - it gets everyone talking about a divisive but unimportant subject. Focus should be in the way PiS has left business high and dry during this mess and how we recover.
mafketis 24 | 9,385
11 Jun 2020 #1,131
Focus should be in the way PiS has left business high and dry during this mess

Exactly!

Karta rodzinna is a stupid distraction, just like this:

angora.com.pl/images/central/cover/.angorabig.jpg

translation: "I'll yell 'Uncouth rabble' and people will forget all about your scams and incompetence"

It worked then sort of, keep the dialogue about PiS incompetence and dishonesty! they have no record to defend or be proud of and don't let them squirm out of that
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
11 Jun 2020 #1,132
Duda cant escape the debates. He will look absolutely amateur in comparison. This may actually be funny. Karta Rodziny will be forgotten about after today's holiday. Its not even worth the attention it got yesterday. Most of what he proposed he cant even do without support of the government which he wont get.
Spike31 2 | 2,110
11 Jun 2020 #1,133
Trzaskowski comes off as young, intelligent, energetic, and representing the "Poland" that people want to have the world see.

Not very likely.

To me he presents himself more like a full of sh*t hipster wearing a vintage scarf and sipping a soy latte in Starbucks while browsing the internet forums on his MacBook to rant about environmental issues...

I look at that man and all I see is perfect emptiness. He is devoid of any distinctive features or any interesting thoughs of his own. In one-on-one debate he would be eaten by K.Bosak.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
11 Jun 2020 #1,134
@Spike31
Maybe Bosak would beat Trzaskowski, but thats not what is going to happen. Everyone will seek to destroy Duda and PiS in turn in the debates. Judgmental about his looks is not really a platform that even PiS supporters would buy into. Even PiS supporters want to hear something substantive.

Looking at Duda I personally see an incompetent clown with JK's arm so far up his a$$ that if Duda opens his mouth to wide you see JK's fingers. Duda doesn't come across as a leader, or even manly. The guy has zero presidential charisma. He is not someone who can motivate people or lead people. He has had 5 years and has done absolutely nothing.

Maybe Trzaskowski drinks latte, who knows, and who cares. He knows the issues, has the pedigree, and education to be respected on the world stage of Politics. I can imagine how Trump laughs about Duda and how weak he is. Trump may be many things but he is at least a leader, right or wrong he picks a direction and goes. Putin is a leader. Even the donkey Boris in England is a leader. Duda has zero leadership qualities. Not once in five years has he had an idea of his own. Maybe we should focus on who does the best for the most people in Poland and not who serves his one antiquated idea master.
Ironside 50 | 10,939
11 Jun 2020 #1,135
has zero leadership qualities

President in Poland has zero leadership responsibilities. It is about who has better qualities for the job. Anybody can do it. It is about two issues - will the president sabotage the gov into inaction (which can be done) and who gain more support in the election as winning such an election is a rallying standard (of sorts ) for their relative constituency.

Both Trump or Putin doesn't really enter to compare here. If anything position of Poland's president is akin to similar position of president of the EU or Germany.

As who would be better in as a real leader that is hard to say. Who would be a better for Poland - do doubt Bosak.
mafketis 24 | 9,385
11 Jun 2020 #1,136
To me he presents himself more like a full of sh*t hipster

You're thinking in terms of culture rather than politics... which is why Trzaskowski has a wide open field if he concentrates on purely economic and political issues - because PiS has no record worth speaking of and their economic response to coronavirus has been the same as all their responses - finding ways to funnel money to cronies while leaving everyone else out to dry.
Lenka 3 | 2,577
11 Jun 2020 #1,137
do doubt Bosak

No doubts for you. I have quite a few.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
11 Jun 2020 #1,138
@Ironside
Isn't it sad the the President of Poland has zero leadership responsibilities if that's the case? Shouldn't that change? While I would agree that the Prime Minister likely has more power, he isn't even a real leader and has no leadership qualities. Its absolutely clear they all got to power by promising money to people who wanted it and not by any real plan or change.

Watching JK on TV is really quite funny though. The leader of the "party" looks half dead, and the country allows this man to dictate policy through the PM and President? Some of the things this group has done is really globally embarrassing. Censorship of a song because JK actually broke the law when no one else could? WOW Talk about gutless leaders, they cant even take the heat of their own actions. Then the paid rants on TVP against the competition, sound like spoiled children saying who's ideas are better to build the lemonade stand.

The EU will eventually fail. It is simply a bad experiment. The EU president is more of a CEO of a big board of directors and he simply manages those meeting and agendas based on the boards suggestions and wants. I don't know enough about Germany to say anything intelligent so I will accept your comparison.

The only point i am trying to make with any of this discussion is that Poland, while having tremendous opportunity to develop into a European power is squandering the opportunity on needless arguments. It is wasting money, and killing the thought of growth. This is not what leaders do for their country, it is what people do who usually get investors money to run a company and then they end up bankrupt pointing the finger at everyone else.
Spike31 2 | 2,110
11 Jun 2020 #1,139
You're thinking in terms of culture rather than politics...

Cultural triggers and emotions are very important in politics. No more than 10% of voters are analyzing the political programme of their candidates and political parties. Not more than 1% of KOD/Obywatele RP crowd shouting about the "Constitution" have ever read it.

Voting is a deeply emotional decision. If Trzaskowski get framed* in a convenient way he is done. Trumpo has framed his opponents in presidential elections (remember "little Marco"?) and he won.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framing_(social_sciences)
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
11 Jun 2020 #1,140
@Spike31
You are way off. Coming out of a pandemic and a clear recession coupled with inflation, more people than ever are looking for substance. This is not an emotional election except for the old PiS guard who will do anything to hold on to power. The problem is they dont know how to use the power, and the country has seen the corruption and failed leadership for five years. Duda is not capable to framing a picture let alone framing his opposition. He is simply incompetent. We will all know the direction of things starting in 17 days though. Momentum is a curious thing. Like an avalanche it can pick up speed and crush everything in its path. Momentum is not something PiS has and they dont have enough time to create it. Its going to be fun to watch.

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