more people than ever are looking for substance
Like always, in - this time globally artificially induced - difficult times people are looking for more stability and not for changes. Which is a pity because we could see some good constructive changes for the better proposed by Konfederacja, but it could also mean that we could suffer changes for the worse introduced by POKO candidate.
Momentum is a curious thing
Nor PiS or POKO has that momentum.
PiS is a political party of power, a party of fat cats, and challengers are always more motivated to win than the reigning champion. Duda, on the other had, seems to still have an appetite for winning.
Trzaskowski has reclaimed POKO voters lost to disastrous Kidawa-Blonska [future is the female] campaign but no more than that. Compare POKO results before and after Kidawa-Blonska campaign and before quarantine. The shorter presidential campain will, paradoxically, work in his favour since he will have less occasions to open his mouth in public. Still, the remaining 2.5 weeks to the elections is enough for him to show his "competence" in all its glory :-)
Holownia had a momentum driven by mainstream media like TVN [Polish CNN] who saw him as a wunderwaffe
against Duda during Kidawa-Blonska campaign. Holownia would look like an OK candidate at first glance given I wouldn't know who's behind him.
And K. Bosak has a momentum steeming from the grass roots movement and idealism of his young followers sharing political info on the internet. He is the only candidate who wasn't backed by any large media outfit but by a regular followers.