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Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates


delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
7 Jun 2020 #1,081
He cannot win.

What makes you so confident? Presidential elections are a lottery, and Duda 's lead in the 2nd round is within the margin of error. There is talk of the turnout being in the 65% range, which makes things even more unpredictable.

based on Christian values

Something that is laughably absent from PiS.
Crow 146 | 9,113
7 Jun 2020 #1,082
How things in the world complicate I more and more becoming pro-Duda. Simple, Poland need stability.
mafketis 24 | 9,372
7 Jun 2020 #1,083
I more and more becoming pro-Duda

Well that's the kiss o' death. If a crazed Serbian nationalist like Crow wants it then it can't possibly be good (or even remotely sane).
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
7 Jun 2020 #1,084
142,000 signatures in Wielkopolska alone for Trzaskowski. It looks like PiS achieved the 'Streisand Effect' by having such a short period for collecting signatures - what was designed to hinder Trzaskowski has turned into a huge boost for his campaign.

For me, the most interesting thing right now is watching the demise of the Hołownia campaign. People were behind him as something 'different' in politics, but it seems that his support evaporated as soon as it came up against a professional campaign.
Crow 146 | 9,113
7 Jun 2020 #1,085
it can't possibly be good (or even remotely sane)

Or can secure Poland's place in the game.

Here >

cl

Corey Lewandowski made some deal in Belgrade with the richest Serbia`s magnates, with the policymakers. We sow he obeys to the deal. Money flow. Things move. Then, there is an Orban thing. Even brat Zeman.

Why would we Serbs judge Duda on all his actions? He is a politician. He needs to balance serious odds. Trickery or influence of Polonia, or Hungarian Orban, or Visegrad in general but, Duda made thinks right. He is no obstacle to Serbs. Not anymore. He cooperates.

And why he wouldn`t? After all, Poland once again needs strong Racowie.

And, yes. We sell see at 28th June, as it is said.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
8 Jun 2020 #1,086
This is so similar to Trump/Clinton where no one believed Trump could win. But he was very smart in how he ran his campaign. Polls were completely wrong and he won. Everyone this year thought Saunders or Warren would win the Democratic nomination, until at the last minute Biden stepped in and crushed both of them. Trump the incumbent like Duda has a slight advantage. Unlike Duda though, Trump just got a huge bump in employment numbers, where again, people thought there would be a decline and there was actually a huge increase. Duda when the second quarter numbers start to come out will look very bad, and those numbers will start to leak out right before the election. In politics there is no sure thing, and Duda is definitely not a sure thing. Trzaskowski has a lot of momentum right now, and in the second round I dont think Duda can keep up. Duda is fading with the mining community fast, and he has completely lost the small business owners. This will be close, a lot closer than many would have believed two weeks ago.
Dirk diggler 9 | 4,721
8 Jun 2020 #1,087
PiS has been ******* up a lot lately... it'll be a close one that's for sure
mafketis 24 | 9,372
8 Jun 2020 #1,088
142,000 signatures in Wielkopolska alone for Trzaskowski

I saw the collectors when I was downtown on Saturday... and Wielkopolska is probably the least supportive of PiS in the whole country...
Crow 146 | 9,113
8 Jun 2020 #1,089
PiS should make patriotic coalition.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
8 Jun 2020 #1,090
Something critical: 12 mines will suspend production for 3 weeks. It's a dangerous move politically.

Furthermore, Duda has lost the support of the Lower Silesian "Bezpartyni Samorządowców" - which means a potential loss of 100-150,000 votes in the province.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
8 Jun 2020 #1,091
@delphiandomine
This will likely save some lives. A responsible move in that regard. It is probably the end for him in Silesia. They were walking away from him with the acceleration of solar energy production to begin with. This will likely seal the deal for him.
Crow 146 | 9,113
8 Jun 2020 #1,092
Whatever you do in Poland have in mind that every political instability lead into bigger dependence from EU. Instability first reduce foreign investments, it then disrupts internal flow of money and then comes the loans which will, of course, be gladly given to Poland by EU.

And EU limited Poland`s maneuverable space by introducing sanctions on Russia. At the same time western Europe, especially Germany have stronger ties with Russia`s business circles. Also, EU limited Central/Eastern European cooperation with China, while western Europe developing those ties no matter every politics.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
8 Jun 2020 #1,093
One million signatures for Trzaskowski and counting. Duda managed to get 1.5m in 5 weeks, so for Trzaskowski to get 1m in 4 days is astonishing.

TVP is attacking Trzaskowski non-stop, which is a sign of just how dangerous they consider him.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
9 Jun 2020 #1,094
@delphiandomine
Trzaskowski simply has the skill and pedigree that Duda could only hope to have. If that many people are already mobilizing, this is going to be very interesting for the world to watch. Imagine, someone claiming voter fraud now with those postal votes? Instead of the opposition making the claim it could be PiS.
Crow 146 | 9,113
9 Jun 2020 #1,095
Trzaskowski simply has the skill and pedigree that Duda could only hope to have

Brat Trzaskowski? If he become important, I hope he push for Central-European Union more aggressively. We don`t have time. EU eat us.
Spike31 2 | 2,109
9 Jun 2020 #1,096
@Crow, the only thing he would ever push for would be homosexual parades and LGBT indoctrination as we can tell from his past political decisions. And in foreign politics he would be oriented for a total submission to the EU core.

Fortunately he is not very likely to win and he only fights for a 2nd round to secure a crumbling POKO a major opposition party slot in the future.
Crow 146 | 9,113
9 Jun 2020 #1,097
We didn`t get homosexual push with Ana Brnabic. She have her private life and she is expert in her field of professional work. She even criticized worldwide homo movement for manipulating LGBT. She also criticized domestic haters, of course.

Normalcy is to accept differences.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
9 Jun 2020 #1,098
Fortunately he is not very likely to win

One can only wonder where Spike gets his information, given that almost all polls show the race to be very close.

If that many people are already mobilizing

1.2m signatures in 5 days. Duda needed 5 weeks to get 1.5m signatures.

There's absolutely no doubt here that PiS made a huge blunder in rejecting the Senate's proposal for a 10 day period for collecting signatures.
cms neuf 1 | 1,852
9 Jun 2020 #1,099
What is the status of TV debates ? A Duda v anyone TV debate would be horrible for him but also might give him a chance to push his message about more handouts.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
9 Jun 2020 #1,100
What is the status of TV debates ?

17th June, apparently. Dangerous time for Duda, because not only is Bosak fighting for 3rd place (and thus will seek to portray Duda as a weak conservative yet again), but he's also got to deal with WKK and especially Hołownia - who arguably won the last debate.

Even if Duda tries to stress that they're giving 500zł in holiday vouchers, it'll just leave him open to attacks over the fact that they originally promised 1000zł to every worker.

Don't forget Tanajno - who will almost certainly make reference to "Duda's police thugs brutalising citizens".
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
9 Jun 2020 #1,101
@delphiandomine
Lets be honest, does anyone really think a 500 pln "voucher" for holidays will swing the vote? What does 500 get you these days? Not much.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
9 Jun 2020 #1,102
Nope, not in the slightest, especially given how pathetic the support has been for people in general.

Final total: 1 622 868 signatures.

BTW, some analysis suggests that Małopolskie is much closer than the polls suggest. If it's true, there could be a tremendous shock on the cards.
amiga500 2 | 222
9 Jun 2020 #1,103
reuters.com/article/us-poland-cocaine/poland-seizes-three-tonnes-of-cocaine-worth-761-million-idUSKBN23G1MC hmmm wonder why large scale seizures never happened under PO?
cms neuf 1 | 1,852
9 Jun 2020 #1,104
Yes that's the biggest question facing Poland today.
mafketis 24 | 9,372
9 Jun 2020 #1,105
That's what I mean when I say that PiS and it's supporters act more like an opposition party than a ruling party. They're all about comparing themselves. That's understandable since they have no real achievements to point to (besides welfare handouts and cronyism).
amiga500 2 | 222
9 Jun 2020 #1,106
Well let's try another one my PolAm friend, this too , like fighting rather than collaborating with trans-national mafia you will find unimportant. The European Commission with the help of the German Presidency of the European Council wants to ram down the throat of Poland the mandatory relocation of real and fake asylum seekers. (again) Perfect timing for the presidential election. :) Luckily the resistance from EU countries has grown to 7+ Austria + surprises. rmx.news/article/article/seven-eu-nations-reject-compulsory-migration-quota-in-letter-to-european-commission Polish people have a long memory of the last PO government kow-towing to Germany and agreeing to take 7000 'refugees' the last time they were in power. It's still PO policy to accept EU diktacts and embrace unidentified military aged men into Poland as part of our mandatory migration quota is it not? . Happy to see the European Commission doing PiS electoral job :)
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
9 Jun 2020 #1,107
Another day, and more strange things from PiS:

1. Duda lost his nerve when confronting a voter that called him a puppet. He didn't act convincingly or like a president, but rather as a typical party hack. He's also repeating the line that PiS were getting rid of communists from the Supreme Court, yet Duda also swore in an actual real communist in Piotrowicz.

2. Even stranger words from Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk, who told people that miners deserve 100% of their salary while others got 80% or nothing - because "there is a difference between a miner who has no alternative to work in any other way, who is the breadwinner in the family". I wonder how teachers, who were told to pick strawberries, feel about this? Or what about hairdressers and make-up artists?

3. Szumowski is going from hero to zero in no time, not least now because he's threatening the return of restrictions while Morawiecki and others completely disregard the regulations to wear masks.

Not to mention the very strange press conference from where they announced a bridge over the Vistula that was announced two years ago... and there's still no sign of construction.
cms neuf 1 | 1,852
9 Jun 2020 #1,108
I have no problem with real asylum seekers - like many on here my own family were refugees once. But I understand some voters are concerned about it so PiS can refuse to take them. Probably won't do them many favors when the next round of cash is being discussed but I'm sure they have taken all the pros and cons into consideration.

I hope the finance minister who also comes from a refugee background is able to talk some sense into them.

As for the miners they have obviously been working in a very dangerous environment so I don't really begrudge them their extra 20 percent but that applies to many others who worked through this period.
Crow 146 | 9,113
9 Jun 2020 #1,109
Colony? Its worse.

Man, Croatia is Germany`s and Vatican`s artificial creation. Old Catholic Serbs and forcible converted Orthodox Serbs declared as Croats after enormous genocide. Plus, Hungary and Italy have open questions with what is Croatia and, Hungary and Serbia already coordinate on it. Poland is wise not to interfere. One of Duda`s best moves to abandon talk on `Thee Seas Initiative` and avoid calling Croatia in summit of Visegrad group in Poland year ago.

Slavic Braći, but Croatia

In Croatia they teaching little children they are of Germanic not of Serbian or Slavic at all origin. In Croatia, Catholicism is ethnicity, not religion.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
9 Jun 2020 #1,110
Another forecast based on the polls so far.

A.Duda 39,1%
R.Trzaskowski 29,5%
S.Hołownia 10,6%
K.Bosak 8,1%
W.K-Kamysz 7,7%
R.Biedroń 3,2%

Duda's support hasn't moved, but Trzaskowski is edging upwards. I'd expect Trzaskowski to keep taking Hołownia's support over the next week or so, and I'd expect WKK, Bosak and Hołownia to all focus on attacking Duda to try and get some votes. All of them have something to fight for, and whoever wins 3rd place will have some monumentum going forwards in politics. However, I'm sticking with Hołownia in 3rd place - he will perform exceptionally well at the debate, which should be enough.

Most political commentators agree that Duda has 1-2% over Trzaskowski and is in a virtual tie with Hołownia in the 2nd round. The question for PiS is just how far Duda should go to try and claim Bosak's supporters in the 2nd round - if he moves to the right, he'll lose support in the centre, and vice-versa.

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