Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates

I believe, personally, that Duda has a 3-4% advantage. He will get more umdecided c

@delphiandomine
I believed Clinton would beat Trump too. I dont think for one second the polls are accurate and PiS has really over played its hand with the public. No one wants tto go back to a dictatorship. Everyone likes a good economy and low taxes. Nobody like cronyism and that is the core of PiS. Still someone has yet to tell me what PiS has done in the last five years that is great for the country, not their agenda, but for the country.

Oops, didn't mean to post that. Mods, can you delete that post please?


There are some interesting signs coming from polls, such as that Duda is losing ground among young people to Bosak in large provincial towns. There's still not enough data to tell, but I think Bosak's electorate may well end up deciding things in the 2nd round. I'd expect a hard pitch to the right by Duda between the 1st and 2nd rounds to try and convince them of his merits.

One key thing - apparently voters in Silesia are really, really upset with being blamed by the government for the coronavirus situation. We all know how tribal they are...

Still, I believe that Duda has a 3-4% advantage right now in the 2nd round. He has the benefit of being the incumbent, as well as having the support of the government.


Don't be too surprised by the Polish ability to shoot themselves in the foot ;)

Sorry for the double posting Mods, but I wanted to add this:

The survey that I posted in post #970 has been adjusted to only count decided voters, and:

Duda 50,0%
K.Kamysz 50,0%

Duda 50,1%
Trzaskowski 49,9%

Duda 50,2%
Holownia 49,8%

Duda 53,0%
Biedroń 47,0%

Duda 60,1%
Bosak 39,9%

@delphiandomine
I wonder how this plays in Silesia and Lower Silesia with PiS voters.
marketscreener.com/ENERGA-SA-15387916/news/Exclusive-COVID-19-pushes-Poland-to-accelerate-exit-from-ailing-coal-sources-30711432/

Badly. Miners are... it's hard to explain, but they treat mining as if it's some sort of religious experience. Even the suggestion of mines being closed in Silesia could cost them 100-200,000 votes.

I'm reminded of the old country song "Dark as a dungeon" about coal miners in Appalachia (working in far worse conditions than miners in Poland)

"Come and listen, young fellers, so young and so fine
And seek not your fortune in the dark dreary mines
It will form as a habit and seep in your soul
'Til the stream of your blood runs as black as the coal"

or

"There's many a man who I've known in my day
Who lived just to labor his whole life away
Like a fiend with his dope or a drunkard his wine
A man will have lust for the lure of the mines"

I don't get it but apparently mining is more than just a job for a lot of miners (part of the message of the mining strikes in 1984-85 UK?)

Turns out this infection issue in mines is not a Polish issue but a global one. Thousands of infections in Canada concerning the mines. This after Canadian Government determined them to be "essential" and not subject to shut downs. Looks a lot like things in Silesia. I am of the opinion that in the second round this is a dead heat at the moment, but that a fresh faced very well spoken, highly qualified Trzaskowski will pull out a victory. The question is, who has the plan to move Poland forward out of the pandemic. Anyone else tracking commercial real estate, and business sales? I have been for months, and the picture gets darker by the day throughout the entire country.

Uuuu, Silesia might get a bit pi**ed off... Apparently one of PiS MP told PO MP 'Wear a mask, you are from Silesia'.

Short answers..... no one! PiS is too worried about the presidential election and non-PiS is too (and I'm not sure if they have any better ideas than anybody else does...)

To be fair, no other country (or supranational organization) seems to have any realistic ideas either... and neither do I - we really haven't been here before and everybody's flying blind.

I've changed my mind about a lot of things about the pandemic but one thing has remained constant - the economic repercussions will be far worse than the health impact (though I've changed my mind about why that will be since March).

Election to go ahead on 28 June.

Good news! now the people can have their say. @polamkrakow please confirm we have a bet/wager of 50USD. You for Traszkowski and me for Duda in the second round. And that you will uphold your end of the bargain as a man of honour.

@amiga500
Confirmed. Not a problem. What if its Duda vs Holownia? Are you taking Duda against all opposition? Or do I need to put 50 on him too? Or is it 100 on the opposition in general against Duda? Lets firm up the details before I spend 50 USD on dinner tonight. lol

I am considering voting for Hołownia in the first round, to support independent voices. If Hołownia makes it to the second round I am unsure on the outcome. , so I suggest the bet should be rendered null and void. But the payout odds on that occurring would be quite high :)

Another poll, and I'd rate this one as credible:

Duda: 41%
Trzaskowski: 26.1%
Hołownia: 12%
K. Kamysz: 7.1%
Bosak: 6.5%
Biedroń: 2.3%

Turnout of 58.9%, which seems slightly low.

==

There is a definitely slight shift away from Duda towards Trzaskowski, but we're speaking in the realm of 0.5-1%. From my perspective, I'd expect to see a slight bounce for Trzaskowski based on the blitz to get 100,000 signatures, so he should be consistently polling ~27% next week.

IMO, there is also a possibility that the same situation will repeat itself as with the European elections, and Bosak will lose ~20% of his support at the ballot box to Duda.

My opinion stays the same - Duda needs 42% in the first round in order to win the 2nd. Anything between 40-42% is too close to tell, while below 40% and he loses to Trzaskowski.

Supporting independent voices and then in the second round voting for a ventriloquist dummy.

You should show slightly more respect to the President of Poland as a citizen. Kacynski might be pulling Dudas strings but still better than the alternative. Trashkowski has so many Oligarch and ex SB/WSI fists so far up his a**, that they control his facial features.

I will wait till he actually acts like a President :D

Remind us who swore in (as a judge to the Constitutional Tribunal) an ex-Communist prosecutor who was awarded a gold medal for his services during martial law?

Respect does not come with the office but has to be earned.

He has done nothing to earn it over 5 years. In fact he has no self respect as he allows himself to be a puppet. He is a disgrace to the office and to Poland. He is ignored whenever he attends international functions - other leaders want to speak to the real boss.

In the context I gather he/she meant - have a higher opinion of - i.e not a noun but a verb.


Trzaskowski - ecological catastrophe in Warsaw, he was a part of the corrupt rule of Waltz. empty promises he never kept, tried to force LGBT agenda to schools.

The only politcians that had a chance in the second round with Duda is Kosiniak. All the rest sand no chance, meaning Duda gonna win.

Your Whataboutism does not go very far, especially as you can only list that one example, over and over again, when during PO's rule there are hundreds of dodgy events, mysterious deaths and unbelievable scandals

Ah yes, you're referring to how during Lech Kaczyński's time, he oversaw the mass dumping of sewage into the river, aren't you? You're right, that was indeed an ecological disaster.


Quite, I don't think anyone can quite believe the astronomical sums given to Szumowski's wife and brother. How much is the latest total? 200m?

Or perhaps you prefer the way that Sadurska immediately got given the sole use of a luxury car worth half a million złoty as soon as she became the head of Duda's chancellery? I mean, her predecessor had a 10 year old Skoda...

Oh the pious PO driving old skodas! cry me a river mate! You don't think the head of the presidential dept should have a proper car? Oh our hero health minister gave evidence today that he took no decisions at the institute that ordered the medical supplies. So unless your grubby mob can prove otherwise its all just unproven conjecture. Marowiecki was right just a bunch of flies buzzing around making noise. Since we speculating Tusk's Son working at OLT whilst Amber Gold stole 600 million off the elderly of Poland was coincidental wasin't it? Since the PO Gdansk Scum, ex SB member called the Tiger and Russian inteligencie was behind it. But i wouldn't expect you to have much sympathy for Poles being robbed, hating Polish people is in every cell of your expat body.

Why does a civil servant need a half million złoty luxury car? Could they not use a normal car?


What about the 2.5bn stolen by GetBack? Do I need to remind you how GetBack sponsored lavish PiS events?

@delphiandomine
How about the 3 billion per year given to TVP? Lets not forget that. How much was given to cancer patients? Who cares about the Polish people in PiS? PO before may be corrupt. PiS is just if not more corrupt. The difference is PiS is leading the country to financial ruin now and quite possibly sanctions or removal from the EU, and Poland can not do without the EU money or trade.

Some data is coming in about production.

Upper Silesia - production down by 40%, with automotive production down by 90%.
Lower Silesia - production down by 32%

Real unemployment stands at over 10% now.

Both Upper and Lower Silesia are battlegrounds in this election.

Production would have been cut even if PiS went with the swedish model due to disruption of global supply chains, so i don't see how the miners and workers will blame the goverment for that.

@amiga500
Coal production in Silesia isn't based on a supply and demand model. Production would have remained steady throughout. These are company's that produce and stockpile coal in anticipation of demand as much as they produce coal for current demand. This is exactly why the miners were kept working. It is exactly why after only a few days shut down they went back to work. It is spring and there is next to zero coal demand other than for electricity, which is constant demand. This has everything to do with keeping workers quiet and happy, nothing to do with a business model.

Then I apologize, dobri i plemeniti brate. I thought you talking about me because your posted just after me.


I contemplated on maneuverable space of official Poland. Its not easy. Poland is deeply in grasp of EU, to put cross on myself, and needs to endure these collapsing EU times. Poland is in NATO at times when non knows what is NATO. Poland share borders with turbulent Germany and confused Lithuania.

Despite all that, official Poland did great moves in foreign policy. They balance well between Vatican and Serbia. They helping arming Serbia. They obviously started to coordinate with Hungary and acknowledge Serbian and Hungarian interests and put it above Germanic interests. They started ignoring Greater Croatia and show signs that dislike Greater Albania.

I repeat, its not easy.

Baloney. Visegrad Group is strong, with Slowakia now a conservative-populist goverment. Germany has realised this and the attacks on PiS have stopped in the german state media. All Countries have a veto on any sanctions so we're all good. . Merkel is making amends with Poland. We're getting 65-70 Billion in debt mutualisation grants so plenty of money for infrastructure investment such as CPK. On the other hand PO want to stop the canal and airport. (theres going to be one in berlin so we don't need one lol!) PO has always been about keeping Poland as a economic colony of Germany and doing humiliating deals with Russia - ie paying the lowest price in europe for gas. This is what happens when a party is infested with ex SB/WSI oligarchs.