Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates

@delphiandomine
By that math another 2% loss and its all but over for him. With a month to go before the election, given the rate of decent now, I wouldnt be betting on PiS. Typically when a ship is sinking, people look for life rafts and deals are made. I can easily see deals being made with Trzaskowski already. He publicly said he would work with PiS if he wins and they present good legislation. This guy isnt an extremist politician. He has Warsaw operating pretty well. Someone has yet to explain to me what PiS has done other than give away other peoples money, raise taxes, raise ZUS, spend EU money, and give special treatment financially to family, friends and supportive press.

You left off "wreck things" (see Pride of Poland and the national stud farms for a nice example of PiS expertise in action).

Another poll:

Duda: 36.5%
Trzaskowski: 25%
Hołownia: 12%
K.Kamysz: 8.4%
Bosak: 6.5%
Biedroń: 3.5%
Tanajno: 0.3%
Jakubiak: 0.1%

@delphiandomine
I think its safe to assume that in the second round, Trzaskowski gets 70% of the votes from Holownia, KK, Bosak and others who cant beat Duda. I think thats probably an underestimation really. But for discussion sake, if thats the number, then the President of Warsaw is in a virtual dead heat with Duda already. While the oposition vote remains divided, there is no real choice other than not for Duda or for Duda. This brings us to a second round where voters gravitate to one side or the other.

I've heard that left is blaming Biedroń's bad score on the fact that he couldn't run face to face campaign (his strong point apparently)... Not sure I'm buying it...

Dude will win. 90% - it means that there is 10% chance someone else ill win. Thing is the biggest chance had Kosiniak but lost it. Now the total opposition is supporting Trzaskowski to win with Holownia, not that they have the real hope of winning the election.


Told you Biedron stand no chance from the beginning. he is too lazy, and he doesn't really want to be a president.

If the a left had put up zandberg as candidiate instead of biedron would have been lot more intersting.

I never said he did. Even if he was the right candidate (which I don't think he is) I don't think an openly homosexual candidate could win atm. I think he reached the top of what he possibly can do.


And you make such statement based on what?

@Antheads2
As one of the supporters of Razrm told me: He is too good to make him run for president, it would be a waste.

on knowing stuff about things...


That is not an issue. A dude which succeed in politicks solely because of his choice of sexual partners and his brazen nature. In other words if he has had anything to offer beside his homosexuality, greed and lies he would be a serious candidate. As it is he never stood a chance.

Sorry, but there is no discussing with you.


Which basically mean 'I have nothing'


I just love your ability to shrug off anything you don't like. You dismiss anything that doesn't agree with your world view as either nonexistent or not important

Well, he was also a rather successful mayor of Słupsk, wasn't he?


I'm afraid Iron might be right here, Lenka. Biedroń seems to be quite happy with his euro-MP job (and all the perks connected to it), and not exactly willing to leave all that for a difficult (and worse paid) job of Polish president.

No it means I know people, I know stuff and I have sources because I keep my eye on things. Politicks and especially politick in Poland is MY forte. You can take it or not.

Your - how do you know it - mean sh''t too - it means I disagree with your just because .... - you can show your knowledge by being specific, Then I could choose to be specific or not. So just clamp it, because it is you that has nothing.

Shall we do a little test?
How many politicians you know had known personally? Me- Oleksy, Leper, Bartoszcze, Pawlak, Walesa, Olszewski, Sikorski, Maciarewicz... that only few from the top. It doesn't mean we are friends or some such, and level of my acquittance differs depending on a person, but at minimum I shook hands and exchanged few sentences... and some might even remember me.

You?


I'm telling you that is not the issue in his case, It is the lack of other qualities that stops him not his homosexuality. IF he has had those other qualities then and only then him being a gay might became an issue, How would it affect his chances - we can only guess. But standing there and suggest in an authoritative manner that that and that is an issue it just your bias, nothing else and nothing more. What are you a fortuneteller?

I notice you use a plural. As far as I know, he's been with his partner for a long time now; no suggestion of promiscuity.

He's done rather well, succeeded against all odds, been a very successful Mayor of Slupsk and is very much respected. He doesn't expect to become president (although he would be a good one) however he's doing very well in the various roles that he has.


Not right now, however people in Belgium said the same, and it happened without fuss. Nobody would have believed that Trump could ever have won across the Atlantic or that tousle-haired clown in the U.K. Having said that, even JK has had to be very careful.

He might but I need more compelling argument than 'because I say so'.


Of course not! Why should I? For one- it's a discussion and not a trust contest . Two- I don't know you so why the hell should I trust your judgement?

Did you miss the part when I said 'even if he was the right candidate ' and'I don't think he is'?

@Ironside
The numbers do not support Duda have a 90% chance of winning. He is fighting for his life. The turnout today for the opposition candidate is impressive and covers a large age demographic. Many more over 40 voters than I anticipated. If this is the demographic that supports him, Duda will not win. People are smart and they see through the same old PiS B.S. This guy is very well spoken, would destroy Duda in a debate, and very smart, makes strong arguments for unity. PiS is divisive at best if not absolutely destructive. I would put money on the new kid if I could.

happy to place a bet with you polam. 50 quid? duda vs trashkowski

I will take that wager

It is Poznań, so it was to be expected. The key thing is that Trzaskowski will now dominate the weekend's media narrative, and he was smart enough to not give a partisan speech. Instead, he called for unity and solidarity - something that can resonate with undecided voters.

In comparison, Morawiecki and Duda turned up at the useless white elephant project near Krynica, which isn't wanted by local residents and is a gigantic waste of money.

Wow. PiS is already at least as disconnected from the electorate as PO was in 2015... maybe more since they can't cooperate with anyone and only talk to each other...

And... I think (a bit optimistically) that the days when they could win by promising more handouts have passed, their tarcze (how to translate that?) have been ineffective disasters. For a short time it seemed that coronavirus was the best thing that could have happened to them but they squandered that in their senseless drive to hold sham elections, ineffective relief policies and the scandals related to the Szumowski family.... I'm sure that people who don't support them will simply say ""PO was just as bad!" (since they can no longer really say "PO was worse!" with a straight face).

@polan ive had a look i had a quick look at the custom betting with someone online space and the best so far seems betyou.ie, as one need to commit the money, this is nescassary because as with VAT it is well known that PO types do what they can to avoid paying what is due ;)

@delphiandomine
You mean the hotel/apartment building they have had on hold since over a year ago in the center of town? "White elephant"? If thats the case, I would like to know what was said. I have great connections there and know a lot about that project.

More this: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vistula_Spit_canal

Here's a story on the event in question:

natemat.pl/310441,morawiecki-i-duda-na-mierzei-wislanej-wpadka-z-atakiem-na-trzaskowskiego#

Trashkowski and PO fools want to cut infrastructure projects in a middle of a economic depression. Their neo-liberal tendencies for austerity can't help keep coming out . And some special people on this forum think their vote will increase? lolzo Once PiS starts the cutting kielbasa scare campaign, trashkowski (who looks like a sleazy character you would see running a high end gogo bar in warsaw) will fall back to the levels of Botox lady.

@mafketis
Sorry Maf, I was thinking Krynica zdroj in the south. They have a huge project on hold because the new city president stopped construction when he didnt agree with the prior administrations selling price to the developer. All permits pulled and construction on main street stopped. Havent been there since last summer, but I found it funny they would stop the project and try to force more money from the people who bought the property.

@amiga500
Of course the project is not being stopped, such a worthy investment to stave 100 km makes total sense instead of making agreements with Russia. Must keep the public works welfare program running. Maybe another 500 plus to people with cats in honor of JK?

Was Duda invited to the 2020 Moscow Victory day parade?

Apparently TVP journalists are very inquisitive...One asked Trzaskowski why his son didn't receive first communion. Hilarious.

I bet non would dare to ask a Polish politician do he consider bishop Absolon a madman. You know, the one which toppled Svetovid`s temple at Arkona. That would be slippery question for both, for journalist and for a politician.

@Lenka
Clearly a question that answering would help decide the fate of the Candidate. Maybe they will ask if he has ever eaten meat on Friday during Lent next? Indeed, TVP clearly worthy of three billion per year funding from PiS. Intelligent, rational reporting focused on the issues that really have an impact on the daily lives of its citizenry. Sounds like FOX and MSNBC two ideology based trash can reporting agencies.

There'll be a couple of projections released tonight which will give us some idea as to how things are shaping up. My own prediction:

Duda: 41% (I don't believe he's as weak as some people think)
Trzaskowski: 27%
Hołownia: 11% (he's weakening very quickly)

Let's see what comes up...

If they release a second round projection, then I'm sitting on Duda winning by 51.5-48.5% right now.

Wow.

One political scientist has it:

Duda: 51.4% (9,808,000 votes)
Trzaskowski: 48.6% (9,275,000 votes)

Duda wins by 533,000 votes.

His calculations break down into provinces as:

Strongly Duda: podlaskie, lubelskie, podkarpackie, małopolskie, świętokrzyskie (5/16)

Weakly Duda: łódzkie (1/16)

Draw: śląskie, kujawsko-pomorskie, warmińsko-mazurskie (3/16)

Weakly Trzaskowski: mazowieckie, dolnośląskie (2/16)

Strongly Trzaskowski: opolskie, wielkopolskie, lubuskie, pomorskie, zachodniopomorskie (5/16)

Trzaskowski's path to victory now involves winning Silesia and Kujawsko-Pomorskie, as well as finding a way to get through to voters in Lower Silesia to turn the province into a solid victory. If he can do all three, he wins. Conversely, Duda has to find a way to turn Mazowieckie and Silesia into at least a weak win, as well as limiting losses in Western Poland.

At this moment, I wonder why PiS are so sluggish.

==

Another political scientist projects in the first round:

Duda: 39.1%
Trzaskowski: 28.2%
Hołownia: 11%

Not decisive either way. Trzaskowski is still below the 30% mark that he needs, while Duda's 39.1% is well clear of the 35% mark where he would be considered to be in trouble.

Hołownia will be below 10% in the next week or so, IMO. He's making mistakes now, and the enthusiasm that was there two weeks ago is simply not there anymore.