Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates

Wow.

One political scientist has it:

Duda: 51.4% (9,808,000 votes)
Trzaskowski: 48.6% (9,275,000 votes)

Duda wins by 533,000 votes.

His calculations break down into provinces as:

Strongly Duda: podlaskie, lubelskie, podkarpackie, małopolskie, świętokrzyskie (5/16)

Weakly Duda: łódzkie (1/16)

Draw: śląskie, kujawsko-pomorskie, warmińsko-mazurskie (3/16)

Weakly Trzaskowski: mazowieckie, dolnośląskie (2/16)

Strongly Trzaskowski: opolskie, wielkopolskie, lubuskie, pomorskie, zachodniopomorskie (5/16)

Trzaskowski's path to victory now involves winning Silesia and Kujawsko-Pomorskie, as well as finding a way to get through to voters in Lower Silesia to turn the province into a solid victory. If he can do all three, he wins. Conversely, Duda has to find a way to turn Mazowieckie and Silesia into at least a weak win, as well as limiting losses in Western Poland.

At this moment, I wonder why PiS are so sluggish.

==

Another political scientist projects in the first round:

Duda: 39.1%
Trzaskowski: 28.2%
Hołownia: 11%

Not decisive either way. Trzaskowski is still below the 30% mark that he needs, while Duda's 39.1% is well clear of the 35% mark where he would be considered to be in trouble.

Hołownia will be below 10% in the next week or so, IMO. He's making mistakes now, and the enthusiasm that was there two weeks ago is simply not there anymore.

The poles who wrote the constitution did not fathom that the opposition would go against democracy and deny an election , so unless senat marzałek is pressured out of his becoming president delusions, we might not have an election till Autumn. PO playing with democracy or might lose them votes. Hopefully Kaczynski comes down on them with an iron fist. If the senate needs to be stormed so be it.

Ah yes, typical PiS mental gymnastics again. The Senate (as even Gowin has acknowledged) had full right to consider the legislation in accordance with the Constitution, and PiS are only crying about it because they tried to ram through a fraudulent postal vote and get away with it.

What is it with PiS supporters and their hatred of democracy?


After shopping at the latest plan by PiS to create Communist-style state-owned supermarkets?

What do you expect from fans of the PRL?

So how long does it take the senate approve legislation for an election? its not rocket science. All I have seen is delaying tactics and days off, with lame denials from PO posels "oh i'm not in the senate" The fact is PO does not want an election in late june or early July because being bereft of actual policy ideas, they are awaiting disaster to befall duda, not self aware enough that the same could happen to their candidiate the longer this farce drags on. So if its all above PO board delph when will the senate approve legislation and what date?

It doesn't happen overnight (or in the night) just to suit PiS who are desperate to hold it at the most awkward time simply because they are falling in the polls and declining in credibility.

if people can riot during a pandemic in usa , poland can surely hold an election with optional postal voting. The election is overdue , how is that awkward, except deep down PO and their supporters know they will lose. Hence the pathetic anti democratic delaying. Don't be afraid You will have to put your head on the chopping block sooner or later.

Can they? Are riots officially sanctioned?


Let it be even later; entirely appropriate to delay under the circumstances.

BTW, the word "you" isn't capitalised in English.

Dunno, why don't you tell us how long it takes to publish the PKW resolution that confirms that the election wasn't held on May 10th?

Tell us, why is Morawiecki blocking the publication of this?

rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-prezydenckie2020/najnowsze-fakty/news-ko-morawiecki-blokuje-publikacje-uchwaly-pkw-zlozymy-zawiado,nId,4527900

21 days without being published and counting. Why is the Prime Minister illegally blocking the publication of the PKW's resolution?

The article delph posted said there was a new ustawa from the sejm that replaced it. @Jon your parties policies remind me of labour and the total opposition against brexit, delay, dither and hold up democracy. till something snapped. And they got the worst possible result beyond their imagination. Be carefull and pray for Your parties sake the same does not occur here.

Far more right wing than Labour, unfortunately, however it seems that's what's needed here to get PiS out, as they did last time.

Anyway, were the PiS flappers half as psephologically confident as you pretend, why would they worry about an autumn ballot?

Worth saying that if Nowogrodzka are paying you for this, they're wasting their (or the public's) dosh.

@delphiandomine
Those polls do not accurately reflect Malopolskie in my opinion. The only real PiS support is in the small communities and having just come back from Nowy Sach I can say I saw a whole lot of signs for Holownia, and in a conversation with an ardent PiS family in the past, they are completely unhappy with how JK has played games with the pandemic and the election. Here in Krakow Duda doesnt stand a chance, opposition signs, posters, and advertising is going up all over. Not sure who these people are polling, but it isn't the people who are actively campaigning against PiS. I think some people are counting Catholics to vote PiS no matter what they do, and I think they are mistaken this time. Even conservative Catholics are tired of the "power grab" as one friends father said to me.

Well the PKW document has been published, now the Marszałek has two weeks to call new election within 60 days. As i predicted Total Opozyc-chuja has already splintered to shambles again. Spokesperson of Lewica says elections should be held as soon as possible. Infighting within PO like with labour during brexit. Significant faction in PO wants election in Late June/July. Good times. Lets see what antidemocratic dither and delay measures the other factions of PO try to pull out of their neo-liberal hats.

@amiga500
You mean antidemocratic like PiS trying to jam through a sham election with mail in ballots during a pandemic? Or like PiS trying to deny Polish citizens the ability to vote from abroad during a pandemic? Or antidemocratic like PiS refusing to declare a state of emergency that would have automatically postponed the election by constitutional rule? Those kind of antidemocratic things?

Vote for candidates that don't negate internal ethnic diversity within Poland but who praises different Slavic ethnicities in Poland. Such a candidate will make Poland great again, lead to Golden age, like during the era of Sarmatism.

Promote Poland as the great idea of all free Slavs and not as the outpost of outside, non-Slavic, interests.

Word creation is really not your strong suit.


You do realise they are different parties and it's natural they have different opinions?

He can't possibly comprehend the idea of parties having independent thoughts. Look at his posts above where he openly advocates for democracy to be crushed.

The election at the end of June is fine by me. Trzaskowski will get the "bounce" from collecting 100,000 signatures quickly too - as it'll require tremendous mobilisation.

I've got around 100 sheets already printed and waiting.

I'm fine with the election being held as soon as possible - just didn't want it done by post during the lockdown,

Adrian probably wanted a long delay so he could spend the summer lounging around at Jurata avoiding work.

Who pays for PiS troll factory ? I hope that is not coming out of taxpayers funds like in Hungary

Torq, come back onto PF right this minute, I need you!

Strange poll published today, one that doesn't make any sense (very low turnout) when compared to others:

Turnout: 48.8%

Duda: 42.3%
Trzaskowski: 23.2%
Hołownia: 11.4%
K.Kamysz: 9.3%
Bosak: 4%
Biedroń: 2.7%

Second round:

Duda: 49%
Trzaskowski: 46.6%
Undecided/hard to say: 4.6%

Another poll, and this one doesn't seem credible as well:

Duda: 32%
Trzaskowski: 25%
Hołownia: 22%
Bosak: 9%
Biedroń: 6%
K.Kamysz: 5%

Second round seems even more like bullshit:

Hołownia: 61%
Duda: 39%

Trzaskowski: 57%
Duda: 43%

If the election to the Sejm was held today, here's an updated forecast from one of the political scientists that I follow:

PiS: 37.6%
KO: 28.9%
Lewica: 11%
PSL: 9.7%
Konfederacja: 9.1%

It's very clear that there's movement from PiS towards Konfederacja, and the "nothing to the right of PiS" is now under severe threat.

It doesn't seem as if there's much movement between left and right, but it's worth remembering that under the Polish system, there's a significant bonus given to bigger parties.

spike's right?!?!?


what is remotely rightwing about welfare handouts and a desire for state-owned businesses run by party cronies? Sounds pretty PRL to me....

For now, yes - but only in terms of the PiS electorate. There's been barely any movement from other parties towards Konfederacja.


Nothing whatsoever ;) But it's their saying...

PiS are so horrendously left wing that it's unreal, the only difference is that they replaced the names from the propaganda, but the message is the same.

I see PiS latest idea is a true socialist gem - they want a state owned chain of grocery stores. It's such a dumb idea I assumed it was a parody but seems they are serious about bringing back the golden days of the PRL.

i thought you were a left wing inclined scot?

Where to even begin with the stupidity? They're talking about how they'll 'force prices to be low while paying farmers a fair amount', which is clearly fantasy stuff. At most, they'll just pour taxpayers money into buying up goods at a high price while dumping them on the market - which is PRL stuff through and through.


I have no inclination for vanity projects, such as the horrendously expensive changes taking place at Radom Airport, an airport that no-one wants to fly to.

As a follower of aviation I agree with you about Radom. Pettiness in not letting PO state authorities have a share in expanding Modlin as LCC and charter airport.

A cooperative would work well. Though not if it's just another PiS Spólka Nomenklatura.


Above all, they want reward jobs and 'opportunities' for their cronies when they're out of office.

Did you guys see the poll on who was the best First Lady? Almost 50% said Kwaśniewska. I don't see any of the candidates wifes doing that well in let's say 10 years. I think Kosiniak-Kamysz is the most annoying to me (but maybe it's the pregnancy :P)

Not only from PiS. Konfedercja also takes voters from the other parties. It attracts many centrist or moderate conservative voters who would never vote for PiS for various reasons since PiS have sizeable negative electorate.

Konfederacja is expanding the pool of conservative and moderate voters absorbing even many former PO voters who are not very likely to ever vote for PiS.

Like many disillusioned former PO voters, who supported PO when it tried to become "Chadecja". Yes, it's hard to imagine but that bunch of letist halfwits wanted to become a Christian centrist party once....

So social moderates are going to get behind Konfederacja's non-democratic identity politics nonsense?

Pro-Russian JKM is electoral poison and the only way K can grow is to neuter him....