delphiandomine 85 | 18,266 31 May 2020 #931Wow.One political scientist has it:Duda: 51.4% (9,808,000 votes)Trzaskowski: 48.6% (9,275,000 votes)Duda wins by 533,000 votes.His calculations break down into provinces as:Strongly Duda: podlaskie, lubelskie, podkarpackie, małopolskie, świętokrzyskie (5/16)Weakly Duda: łódzkie (1/16)Draw: śląskie, kujawsko-pomorskie, warmińsko-mazurskie (3/16)Weakly Trzaskowski: mazowieckie, dolnośląskie (2/16)Strongly Trzaskowski: opolskie, wielkopolskie, lubuskie, pomorskie, zachodniopomorskie (5/16)Trzaskowski's path to victory now involves winning Silesia and Kujawsko-Pomorskie, as well as finding a way to get through to voters in Lower Silesia to turn the province into a solid victory. If he can do all three, he wins. Conversely, Duda has to find a way to turn Mazowieckie and Silesia into at least a weak win, as well as limiting losses in Western Poland.At this moment, I wonder why PiS are so sluggish.==Another political scientist projects in the first round:Duda: 39.1%Trzaskowski: 28.2%Hołownia: 11%Not decisive either way. Trzaskowski is still below the 30% mark that he needs, while Duda's 39.1% is well clear of the 35% mark where he would be considered to be in trouble.Hołownia will be below 10% in the next week or so, IMO. He's making mistakes now, and the enthusiasm that was there two weeks ago is simply not there anymore.