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Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates


Lenka 3 | 1,966
27 May 2020 #871
All caps? Really?
It wasn't me who rumbled how leftists love the word interpretation.
antheads2
27 May 2020 #872
well the PiS backroom men are hinting that they have dirt on personal life of Trashkowski, but they see it as a nuclear weapon and will only use it if there is a danger Duda is in danger of losing second round. i wonder if its a toyboy or coke and a dead hooker?.
jon357 63 | 15,214
27 May 2020 #873
hinting that they have dirt on personal life

Classy..,

It may well rebound on them and increase his vote share. Smacks of desperation too.
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
27 May 2020 #874
well the PiS backroom men are hinting that they have dirt

Like Macierewicz and his endless excuses for not publishing his Smoleńsk report?

Just to give some comparison - Trzaskowski according to the latest poll is behind by 12%.

At the same point (4 weeks before the election) in 2015, Komorowski had a lead of 22%.
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
27 May 2020 #875
Some interesting discussion and debate going on about the rise of Trzaskowski. Different views are around, but one caught my eye. It's the theory that if Trzaskowski doesn't keep growing in the polls, then the mobilised support will start to drop. In short, Trzaskowski needs to keep catching people's eyes in the media with agreeable policies until he catches Duda, otherwise his electorate may sense defeat and 'give up' on him.

Another interesting snippet: The infamous political ****** "Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy" have come out and backed Hołownia. Their national influence is negligible, but it's perhaps another 1-2% that isn't going to Duda or Bosak.
Ironside 49 | 10,311
28 May 2020 #876
about the rise of Trzaskowski.

Desperation. The last hope of the red people. lol
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
28 May 2020 #877
Anyone else wonder why PiS wants the vote so desperately on June 28th now? Two reasons....First they know they are losing ground quickly and its not looking good. Second and most important is that they have no chance in winning once the second quarter economic numbers start getting out to the public. Once those numbers are out its all over for Duda.
antheads2
28 May 2020 #878
Good speech by Duda and Marowiecki this morning about EU stimulus bill. Duda was saying Europe needs to become a manufacturing powerhouse again and the days of outsourcing it to the far east are over. Marowiecki referenced Stielitz and Krugman, and said he is for a keynesian injection of stimulus funds into Poland and Europe. This is a economically left wing goverment. PO, being economic liberals have never, and will never think about helping the people.
antheads2
28 May 2020 #879
we're going to get 65 billion of EU stimulus at this stage.
cms neuf - | 1,589
28 May 2020 #880
Spending someone else's money on jobs for their cronies is PIS economic policy
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
28 May 2020 #881
Good speech by Duda and Marowiecki this morning about EU stimulus bill.

The speech in which Morawiecki whined about the plan to link the funding to the rule of law?
antheads2
28 May 2020 #882
No this morning. No mention of that. Was all positive and Marowiecki was claiming he was pushing the EC to make the grant/debt mutualisation amount as large as possible as he sees the scale of investment needed to get Poland and europe going again i listened to the whole thing, if your GW and TVN24 are stating that then they are lying as usual.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
28 May 2020 #883
Marowiecki is scrambling to get EU funds because the projected economic downturn expected to be reported for the second quarter is 11% for the EU. If PiS doesnt get some money flowing and that report comes out before the election, PiS may as well just stack packing their things.
antheads2
28 May 2020 #884
You are making the mistake that people will blame PiS for the economic downturn, instead of act of God. Sweden did not have a lockdown and their economy has contracted 10 percent as well.
Lenka 3 | 1,966
28 May 2020 #885
@ PolAmKrakow
I think you are overestimating and underestimating Poles.
Neither Poles (as a majority) will pay attention to reports nor those that do will put full blame on PiS. I'm definitely not a supporter of that party but the economy will crash everywherr
jon357 63 | 15,214
28 May 2020 #886
Neither Poles (as a majority) will pay attention to reports nor those that do will put full blame on Pi

Normal everywhere now for voters, it's true here and it isn't specific to Poles either.

The PR matters far more than the policies now, the soundbites more than the economic and social realities.
mafketis 23 | 8,404
28 May 2020 #887
people will blame PiS for the economic downturn, instead of act of God

I know of former PiS supporters that have been turned off by their obsessive jihad to ram through elections without proper preparation (legal and physical) and their supposed protection plans are a laughable and ineffective mess...

And the shady business dealings of the Szumowski family (talk about going from from hero to zero)

PiS has never created anything good. they briefly capitalized off of good times created by PO (whatever else you think of them) and have done nothing to actually improve the economy or make it more impervious to shocks....
antheads2
28 May 2020 #888
actually due to the worldwide crisis, when push comes to shove, more voters that voted Hołownia, PSL, and Bosak will support the current president than if there was not a pandemic and economic depression.

in second round
Torq 32 | 2,999
28 May 2020 #889
will support the current president than if there was not a pandemic and economic depression

I'm afraid you might be right here. In difficult times people very often go for stability option, not for radical change (according to the old wise saying: "jest ch*jowo, ale chociaż stabilnie"). ;)
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
28 May 2020 #890
I think people are over estimating and under estimating Poles. Over estimating PiS support, and under estimating the younger voters who want them out. Think about all the Poles that came home in the virus, they arent PiS supporters and they wont be leaving the country before the election. Think about all the Poles that could not go abroad and now cant go abroad because other countries will have an economic downturn. PiS has not shown stability. They look corrupt, and incompetent, maybe they are constantly corrupt and incompetent but that wont get them votes.

These Polls that are being taken, I have to question the demographics of respondents, and how many are being polled. I am reminded of GHW Bush/Clinton campaign. Bush was pooping the bed economically and Clinton had the world hypnotized with charm, intelligence and great public speaking ability. These three things and the young voters changed everything.
PolDumbKrakow
28 May 2020 #891
it takes a certain level of insanity or is it wishfull thinking to blame a political party fo a worldwide virus. but Polam and the maybe 10k people in poland fit that category
jon357 63 | 15,214
28 May 2020 #892
I have to question the demographics of respondents, and how many are being polled

This is a growing issue. In the U.K., pollsters sometimes still call people on landlines; they are increasingly rare among urban residents under their mid-50s or among people who move around a lot for work. In rented homes nowadays they are almost non-existent.
cms neuf - | 1,589
28 May 2020 #893
I don't blame them for that of course. But I do blame them for their economic response which is to let businesses deal with it themselves, with no support and no tax relief.

On top of that they have spent a lot of the gains of recent economic growth on election sausage and handouts instead of saving it for a rainy day like this.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
28 May 2020 #894
WOW real brave to make statements like that. Blame for a worldwide virus? How about you take a remedial reading comprehension class. Spineless comment.

Everyone can blame the leadership for a damaged economy that did not have to be as damaged as it is. The virus is bad. Its a killer. It is not a global killer and threatening mankind like all the "experts" said could be.

Thinking PiS will win based on what could, or might happen, when clearly they are getting pounded in the polls and public opinion is wishful thinking. Its not just the economy either, its the judiciary, the treatment of small business owners, the perceived corruption at the core of the administration, the censorship, and all the other absolutely stupid economic policy they have come up with.
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
28 May 2020 #895
Another poll - only available as uncorrected.

Duda: 40%
Trzaskowski: 27%
Hołownia: 17%
Bosak: 6%
K-Kamysz: 5%
Biedroń: 4%

Turnout of 67%.

As an aside, the claims that the Hołownia electorate will vote for Duda are far-fetched. Results from parliamentary polls show that Hołownia took a large amount of support from Biedroń, and while it's likely that Hołownia will attract some new voters, the majority of his support is coming from the non-Duda electorate.

when clearly they are getting pounded in the polls and public opinion

They're not getting pounded - be careful with how you interpret things. There is a measurable loss of perhaps 2-3%, but Duda still has the advantage.

There is something else that you might not be quite aware of - there is a thing called the 'reluctant PiS voter' - they support PiS, but for various reasons, keep very quiet about their affiliation.

As an aside, some information about how many voters for a candidate will not take part in the second round [b]if[/b ]their candidate doesn't make it. In brackets - the breakdown of how the voting part of a candidate's electorate will vote in the 2nd round.

Hołownia - 7% (6% Duda, 87% Trzaskowski)
K-Kamysz: 16% (24% Duda, 60% Trzaskowski)
Bosak - 43% (22% Duda, 35% Trzaskowski)
Biedroń - 5% (4% Duda, 91% Trzaskowski)
Torq 32 | 2,999
28 May 2020 #896
What's the source of this poll? Any links? It looks like a poll conducted for "Gazeta Wyborcza". ;)
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
28 May 2020 #897
What's the source of this poll?

I'll send it over to you privately - I'm trying to avoid the "BUT BIASED POLL / INFORMATION" type rants.

It looks like a poll conducted for "Gazeta Wyborcza". ;)

You're going to be quite surprised :P
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
29 May 2020 #898
According to these numbers:

Bosak: 6%
K-Kamysz: 5%
Biedroń: 4%

None of those three have a chance of winning. The match is quite simple. If all three though want Duda out, then they should simply get out now. Does Poland really want a repeat of Clinton/Saunders divided vote? That was simply the dumbest election season in USA history. a divided yet similar base is not wise. There are deals to be made. Are politicians in Poland simply not smart enough to make them? Or do they want to stay on TV for their own personal interests?

Duda was well above 50% in almost every poll just before Trzaskowski came out. Losing more than 10% in just a few weeks is getting pounded. Its why PiS is removing restrictions so quickly now. To try to get people feeling comfortable again. Its why the mines in Silesia were sent back to work while the virus rages through families there. Its why now they are pushing the June 28th election before the second quarter economic results come out in July. Those July numbers are going to show soul crushing unemployment and business closures.

Anyone walking the streets of their city and village is going to see empty storefronts now where there were small business just three months ago. Those operations wont come back in most cases, and it will take years for new business to replace them. This election will become less about LGBTQ or other alphabet soup issues and more about people and their ability to live as the days go on.
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
29 May 2020 #899
Another set of numbers, based on the second round.

Duda: 51%
Trzaskowski: 49%

Duda: 51%
Trzaskowski: 49%

Duda: 51%:
K. Kamysz: 49%

Duda: 53%
Biedroń: 47%

Duda: 56%
Bosak: 44%.

I call bullshit on this poll.

@Torq, without telling you the source, would you agree with my observation that this is nonsense and that it isn't possible for Duda to have weakened so much?
Crow 139 | 8,609
29 May 2020 #900
without telling you the source, would you agree with my observation

I would tend to agree. I know you man for so many years. You have more influence on me then my TV, I can assure you. Truth to be said, I have many well informed sources.

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