delphiandomine 85 | 18,266 26 May 2020 #841No, I wouldn't. There is a documented example from the 2019 European elections where declared Konfederacja voters turned out to be PiS voters (around 1.7% of the total vote), and it's possible that we're seeing the same thing again. If you add 2% to the 'definitely will vote', Duda is up to 46% - which would be enough IMO.My personal judgement is that Duda needs 42% in the first round to win. That assumes that Duda will be preferred by 70% of Bosak voters (+3.5%), 20% of Hołownia voters (2%) and 30% of WKK voters (2.7%). It's not in tune with what polls are saying, but I'm not entirely convinced by the argument that 30-40% of Bosak voters will go to Duda.