The BEST Guide to POLAND
Unanswered  |  Archives 
 
 
User: Guest

Home / News  % width posts: 1,907

Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates


delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
26 May 2020 #841
No, I wouldn't. There is a documented example from the 2019 European elections where declared Konfederacja voters turned out to be PiS voters (around 1.7% of the total vote), and it's possible that we're seeing the same thing again. If you add 2% to the 'definitely will vote', Duda is up to 46% - which would be enough IMO.

My personal judgement is that Duda needs 42% in the first round to win. That assumes that Duda will be preferred by 70% of Bosak voters (+3.5%), 20% of Hołownia voters (2%) and 30% of WKK voters (2.7%). It's not in tune with what polls are saying, but I'm not entirely convinced by the argument that 30-40% of Bosak voters will go to Duda.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
26 May 2020 #842
Apple prices up 94% in Poland since Coronavirus. These kinds of numbers are just the beginning. Duda can't survive job loss and massive inflation at the same time. I don't think we will see a repeat of 2019. I haven't trusted poll numbers since Trump/Clinton and I really don't think they can be trusted here. A lot of "if's" in those equations.
mafketis 23 | 8,404
26 May 2020 #843
Duda can't survive job loss and massive inflation at the same time

Well, he can if PiS is successful in pinning the blame on Tusk (I'm not kidding, what else do they have?)

Failing that they'll play the "Those mean other candidates are going to take away your free money! Are you going to stand for that?" card, cause again, what else do they have?
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
26 May 2020 #844
Duda can't survive job loss and massive inflation at the same time.

In theory, it should sink him, but Polish presidential elections are quite unpredictable. The KO electorate has mobilised around Trzaskowski, and I think if he pulls up to 30-35% in the polls, Duda will be in for a tremendous fight. Hołownia is fading quickly, and almost none of his support is transferring to Duda.

I'm absolutely convinced right now that the election will be decided by around 1% of the electorate.

Failing that they'll play the "Those mean other candidates are going to take away your free money! Are you going to stand for that?"

That's exactly what they're doing. It might just work as well...
antheads2
26 May 2020 #845
didin't you make these predictions and polls the last two elections? and you were proved spectacularly wrong and humiliated. what makes you think it will be different this time ?
jon357 63 | 15,214
26 May 2020 #846
I'm absolutely convinced right now that the election will be decided by around 1% of the electorate.

That's usually how it goes in other countries, the UK and US among them.

This election here is already different from the ones that have gone before.

I'm not entirely convinced by the argument that 30-40% of Bosak voters will go to Duda.

I don't think they will.

There are strange things happening to the economy right now; if the effects are truly felt before the election, it will make a difference.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
26 May 2020 #847
@mafketis
The Problem is the opposition has already publicly said they will not take away what has already been given to Polish people. While I already heard on person bring up Tusk in his past positions, I dont see that carrying much weight. The younger generation is very mobilized right now. JK is really not even liked by his own party, and I think people will turn on him just to get rid of him.
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
26 May 2020 #848
The younger generation is very mobilized right now.

The question is - are they mobilised outside of cities? There are a lot of "what-ifs" in the current situation, though what we should be looking for is two things:

- Will Duda fall below 40% without a corresponding rise in Bosak's percentage?
- Will Trzaskowski poll above 30% without a fall in Hołownia's percentage?

IMO, Duda isn't comfortable right now, but he still has a reasonable advantage. The question is whether he can maintain it - he's making terrible mistakes again, such as being caught telling people "we gave you 500+ and the 13th pension", which went down badly with taxpayers.

What's also important is what's going on right now in the Senate. It's believed that the Senate will propose a 10 day period for collecting signatures, which gives the 5th July as the election date. Local governments are also signalling that they will refuse to conduct the election before that date, as they have to sort out exams in June and so they don't have the administrative capability of dealing with national exams and elections too.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
26 May 2020 #849
The later the elextion goes, the more economic damage becomes public, which is bad for Duda. Right, left, or center, when you start running out of money you start blaming the people in power who put you there.
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
27 May 2020 #850
I missed this one, but:

Second round:

Duda: 50.3%
WKK: 49.7%

Duda: 52.3%
Hołowina: 47.7%

Duda: 52.6%
Trzaskowski: 47.4%

To give an idea, 1% is roughly 180,000 votes based on a 60% turnout. It means that Duda has an advantage of around 0.5m votes - which was his winning margin in 2015.

I wish we could have some more polls conducted regionally, as it would give an idea as to how strong Duda is in Western Poland.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
27 May 2020 #851
@delphiandomine
What is the sample size of these Polls? Where and how are they being taken? I am asking because I deal with a lot of people through work in many different age demographics around the country and I don't know a single person supporting PiS at this point. I know some who have in the past but they are not going to support them in this election.
antheads2
27 May 2020 #852
can someone sumarise the economic policies the goverment has introduced in regards to sarsv2? both for business and citizens, thank you.
cms neuf - | 1,589
27 May 2020 #853
With regards to business they have one policy - you are on your own.

If you were successful before March then basically you are not entitled to anything.

If you were unsuccessful or small before March then you will probably get various things adding up to about 5-10k zloty.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
27 May 2020 #854
Small business gets 5K zloty for staying open for 3 months during pandemic. It takes 32 days to get it after you apply. That's it. All the other "shield" money went to big corporations. Complete misplacement of assets.
mafketis 23 | 8,404
27 May 2020 #855
Complete misplacement of assets

Well to be fair, that's pretty much what has happened (and is happening) in all countries.

The government however, rather than seriously think of how to mitigate the catastrophic economic effects of the the pandemic expended all its efforts into trying to force through some kind of "sham" election to keep the pliable puppet Duda in place.... so there's that.

Here's an article on how empty the promises have been regarding one sector (restaurants).

businessinsider.com.pl/biznesvscovid/restauracje-po-pandemii-koronawirusa-wysokie-czynsze-zamykaja-biznes/hb5v3ps
antheads2
27 May 2020 #856
what about citizens? was there a wage subsidy/increased unemployment benefits like in western europe/australia?
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
27 May 2020 #857
@mafketis
Actually in USA small business got some good money to keep employees on working. Everyone I know got a loan that becomes a grant as long as you document your employees got paid.

@antheads2
Nothing for citizens. Talk about a 200 zloty monthly unemployment increase that didnt come that I am aware of. Only money to big business who kept employees on working, and most didnt keep them working.

A complete joke of a shield.
cms neuf - | 1,589
27 May 2020 #858
Ordinary people do get something - the continuing payment of the 500 plus and extra pensions. And this is a problem - hardworking taxpayers see their income fall, in some cases to zero but the people who get 500+ are not asked to make any sacrifices
Lenka 3 | 1,966
27 May 2020 #859
You do realise one can be both so don't be drama queen.

There is that 1000+ for holiday in Poland
cms neuf - | 1,589
27 May 2020 #860
Yes I realize that - but my point is that after Covid a smaller number of people will be paying taxes to fund more and more benefits. That's a very unhealthy situation
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
27 May 2020 #861
@cms neuf
ZUS will continue to rise which will inhibit more growth and more hiring. Poland has got some serious fiscal problems coming and it is just the beginning. People have burnt through the little cash they had who may have been willing to take risk before the virus. Its not a good situation when banks are calling twice a day begging me to barrow money, sending emails with instant loans in 30 seconds for some pretty hefty amounts of cash. If banks are desperate to lend, then no one is barrowing, and no one is barrowing because they have no income, those that do have an income dont need to barrow. Its about to get real interesting over the next 30 days.
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
27 May 2020 #862
I thought about this some more, and I'd rather just give the poll results without further details - it will allow readers to make their own conclusions about the validity of the poll in question. The unadjusted poll here is the original result given by the polling company, the adjusted one is based on the work of an established Polish political scientist who is controlling for the previous accuracy of the polls conducted by the polling company.

Unadjusted poll:

Duda: 38.94%
Trzaskowski: 26.6%
Hołownia: 16.41%
Bosak: 5.71%
K-Kamysz: 5.46%
Biedroń: 5.14%
Others: 1.74%

Adjusted poll:

Duda 38,1%
Trzaskowski 27,2%
Hołownia 14,6%
K-Kamysz 6,2%
Bosak 6,0%
Biedroń 3,3%

==

Still nothing to be particularly excited about. Trzaskowski is hitting PiS with well timed attacks while Duda flounders, but PiS are attacking back with more welfare policies and a mass unfreezing of the economy which should return Duda comfortably to the 42-44% level. We probably won't see the results of the last couple of days until next week - but IMO, the most important polls will be conducted this weekend and then after the 10th June. Those are the two 'paydays' for Polish workers.
NoToForeigners 10 | 1,062
27 May 2020 #863
tvp.info/48248698/zbieranie-podpisow-pod-lista-trzaskowskiego-portal-tvpinfo-ujawnia-nagranie

This is how Trzaskowski's colleagues break law. Hopefully prosecuted.

To those who don't speak Polish yet think of themselves as Poles (LOL!)
All this election postponing and pressure to introduce martial law (basicall) by PO (it's a fact) was all about replacing Kidawa "Prompter" Błońska. Now they achieved that and replaced her with mr. Rafał "I didnt complete 9% of my promises to Warsaw" CZAJK(A)owski. Now in this vid you can see that CZAJKOwski's friends are already collecting 100 thousand signatures for him. The Law says that a candidate for president can do that ONLY after Sejm Marshall designates the date of elections.
Lenka 3 | 1,966
27 May 2020 #864
Kwestią interpretacji tego przepisu jest ustalenie, czy w tym przypadku doszło do takiego nadużycia. (It's up for interpretation whether the law was broken)

From your own link...
NoToForeigners 10 | 1,062
27 May 2020 #865
Iterpretation lol. Leftists love that word. Anyways even if someone will get prosecuted it's gonna be that lady not CZAJkoski coz of his mates in judicary system.

Besides LAW IS INTERPRETATION. Depends on who is interpreting it.
Lenka 3 | 1,966
27 May 2020 #866
TVP leftist? That is real news to me :D
NoToForeigners 10 | 1,062
27 May 2020 #867
@Lenka
You dumb? I said its JUDGES who interprete that not TVP. Are you a lunatic claiming TVP interprets law for Judicary System?

We can all interpret anything as we want. For example deviant John357 can interpret Polish constitution saying that "Marriage is a relationship between a man and a woman" as that it didn't actually say it's not men with men...
Lenka 3 | 1,966
27 May 2020 #868
No genius. I mean it was that leftist TVP journalist that talked about interpretation
NoToForeigners 10 | 1,062
27 May 2020 #869
BECAUSE JUDGES/LAWYERS/ADVOCATES ALL INTERPRET LAW. SMH
jon357 63 | 15,214
27 May 2020 #870
Trzaskowski is hitting PiS with well timed attacks while Duda flounders

He knows what to do and how to do it.

Those are the two 'paydays' for Polish workers.

A lot of small business owners and contract workers are very disenchanted now and ready for change. Plus private landlords who've seen their income vanish.

Home / News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates
BoldItalic [quote]
 
To post as Guest, enter a temporary username or login and post as a member.