The interesting thing is that it looks like Duda is rapidly losing the support of the 'business' part of the PiS electorate. It seems that Bosak's relentless campaigning on behalf of businesses and individual freedoms is paying off for him, while PiS have ignored the threat from Bosak and wasted a huge amount of energy on Trzaskowski instead.
Btw- what the hell is going on with Kosiniak-Kamysz?
Lost his way after the postal elections situation appeared. He didn't understand the power of social media (which is bizarre, given how good their campaign was last year online) and just went quiet. The end result is that he lost the rural middle classes to Hołownia, who is pretty much offering the same as him.
PiS are repeating the exact same mistakes as they made before the coronavirus hit - bad PR after bad PR, with no real ability to respond to people's genuine concerns. The latest pictures of Morawiecki laughing and joking in a restaurant while breaking the rules that everyone else has to stand by is like rubbing it in the face of voters.
Nothing much as was expected. He is a president that gives him 15 to 20% bonus just for that fact. Don't see a reason he would loose. Let's talk after first round, assuming there be a second one.
One other credible political commentator suggests that (based on his methodology for adjusting polls based on the previous credibility of the polling company)
Duda: 39.5% Trzaskowski: 21.5% Hołownia: 14.4%
At this time, I wouldn't like to bet on the winner.
as long at Trzaskowski gets into the second round Duda has absolutely no problems. in fact if i was running PiS black ops i would put money into boosting Trzaskowski: . No one from the country will vote for that swarmy elite varsovian.
Interesting how some think DUda can still win in this economic climate. Considering the most effected group has been the older segment of society, most likely to vote PiS, who are now scared to come out of the house, or think that wearing masks is a waste of time, are less likely to support him. Clearly he is a yes man for JK and no one really likes spineless people, and while PiS was able to buy votes before, the strategy isn't working this time. I dont think he can beat Trzaskowski or Holownia in the second round and that the opposition will rally around one candidate at that time.
One interesting thing I've just seen - a right wing political commentator has Bosak voters going more for Trzaskowski than Duda, while Hołownia, WKK and Biedroń voters all go heavily to Trzaskowski in the second round.
If this is true, then Duda may need 45% in the first round to ensure victory. I'm sticking with my 42% number right now though.
You must be on drugs. That is so ridiculous but i guess maybe thats the line on TVN24? What i heard on Tokfm today was an independent mecenas who hates PiS , saying PO should have supported Hołownia instead of putting up a candidiate, because all the polls say that the vast majority of undecided/centrist/PSL voters will go for Duda over western elite leftie Trzaskowski
PiS - 38% KO - 31% Lewica- 13% Konfederacja - 9% PSL - 8%
PiS - 203 (-32) KO - 147 (+13) Lewica - 52 (+3) Konfederacja - 33 (+22) PSL - 24 (-6) mniejszość niemiecka - 1 (bz)
If this happened, it would be the worst possible outcome for PiS. They would have to sacrifice a huge amount to get Konfederacja to vote for their candidate in the vote of confidence for the PM, yet their government would hinge entirely on Konfederacja not abstaining during any constructive vote of no confidence in future. They'd also be relying on Konfederacja acting as a single bloc in the Sejm, which is easier said than done when there's several strong personalities who have their own agenda.
It's a clear sign that Konfederacja have also broken the "nothing to the right of PiS" barrier.
Give credit to Bosak - he's run a campaign focusing on real world issues. He's constantly bringing up how PiS are increasing taxes left/right/centre along with burdening Polish businesses with absurd regulations, and it's clear that he's getting through to small business owners.
If Duda loses the election, my prediction will be war with Konfederacja on the part of PiS.
No matter how much Bosak barks now, he knows and everyone knows that 90 percent of the konferderat voters will go for Duda over PO. And no they won't stay home as they want to avoid Jewish Rule and LGBT apocalypse.
What interesting thoughts must be running around in your mind.....
Konfederacja ... several strong personalities who have their own agenda
Was talking to a friend who hates Bosak on principle (for his stupid identity politics) but has been positively impressed by his approach to economic issues.
But, ultimately I'm sure Korwin-Mikke can be counted on to undermine and sabotage any sensible policy issues that konfederacja might have and drive it back to anti-democracy and loser identity politics positions... he seems to be a Russian puppet whose agenda is to bring Poland back into the Russian sphere of influence.
my prediction will be war with Konfederacja on the part of PiS
I'd say that's already started... JK cannot stand the idea of any opposition whatsoever (his neo-PRL worldview can't tolerate dissent or differing opinions).
he knows and everyone knows that 90 percent of the konferderat voters will go for Duda over PO
It would be good to know what you're talking about before making such assumptions. PiS barely increased their vote in the Senate races as opposed to the Sejm, which means that ~1m Konfederacja votes went somewhere else. Even allowing for the possibility that some people voted for a split ticket, it doesn't account for where the rest of the vote went.
Not one single commentator believes that Duda will take 90% of the Bosak vote. PiS themselves aren't even talking about it, because they know that it's a dangerous thing to rely on. After all, let's not forget that for some Konfederacja supporters, Duda is jhated for his pro-Jewish stance.
As for 'neo-liberal scumbags', perhaps you can tell us why you support the First Bankster of Polish politics. Nothing says 'neo-liberal' more than running a foreign bank for years, does it?
Was talking to a friend who hates Bosak on principle (for his stupid identity politics) but has been positively impressed
I think Bosak correctly understood that the usual identity politics were going to get him nowhere, but that focusing on real world issues such as PiS separating families in border areas was much more effective. In particular, I see that Bosak is hammering home the "no more new taxes" line too.
I'd say that's already started
It has, but only to the extent of largely preventing Konfederacja from appearing on public TV/radio. I predict much worse if Duda loses, because they'll need a scapegoat.
Hard to say. Most analysis I've seen suggests that a lot of them simply won't vote because there's nothing in it for them, but they're a very unpredictable group. Bosak himself will have a lot to do with it - if he endorses a particular candidate, then they'll vote. It's most likely that he'll simply refuse to endorse anyone though.
Trzaskowski doesn't stand a chance in the second round: he can count on Biedroń's voters, but overwhelming majority of Bosak's and WKK's voters will vote for Duda; the same applies to majority of Hołownia voters as well - his voter base is, after all, mainly Catholic (liberal Catholic, but still).
Add to this the fact that, traditionally, PiS voters will be more mobilised to turn up for the vote, and another presidential term for Duda is obvious.
@Torq This goes against even the simplest logic of rational thought. Duda getting supporters from the opposition simply isn't going to happen. Everyone see's him for JK puppet. Even the international press are reporting how he is soft. Duda offers nothing new, nothing to make things better. He and JK are the past, they found this out when their colleagues forced them to abandon the May 10 vote. That was the first and biggest loss to date, the next will come when Duda cant win on June 28th.
Duda getting supporters from the opposition simply isn't going to happen.
Well, let's come back to this thread after the elections and see who was right. :)
Everyone see's him for JK puppet.
That is absolutely correct. That's how both the opposition and the government perceive him.
Even the international press are reporting how he is soft.
Correct again. :)
Duda offers nothing new, nothing to make things better.
You are quite right!
...and still Duda is going to win. :) Simply because most of Hołownia's (liberal Catholic), WKK's (peasants, country voters, centre-right Christian democrats) and Bosak's (nationalist) voters won't accept a president perceived as an LGBT sympathiser and coming from PO, a political formation that even today makes most ordinary Poles shiver, even when it's a warm day. :)
If KO sticked to Kidawa-Błońska as their candidate, and we saw WKK or Hołownia in the second round, then Duda might lose. Against Trzaskowski, it's a sure victory for Duda.
We shall ;) But from my observations, it's very unpredictable. We know that Podlasie and Lubelskie will go heavily with Duda, but apart from that, it's hard to tell.
What's more concerning right now is that PiS now officially control the Supreme Court. If PiS lose, we can expect games with the Supreme Court annulling the election.
Well it seems both Biedroń and Kosiniak-Kamysz will be the big losers of this race. Biedroń is annoying as hell (I knew he will be) and Kosiniak-Kamysz was a nice surprise but I can't stand his wife
Marcin Palade (well known right wing political scientist) gave the following observation on Twitter (quick and dirty translation)
- To sum up the polls from May 24, 2020: if Duda obtains approx. 45% in the first round, he will need [to win] (1) full re-mobilization of its electorate (2) every fourth voter from Kosiniak-Kamysz (3) every fifth from Bosak (4) votes from some voters who will appear only in the second round
No, I wouldn't. There is a documented example from the 2019 European elections where declared Konfederacja voters turned out to be PiS voters (around 1.7% of the total vote), and it's possible that we're seeing the same thing again. If you add 2% to the 'definitely will vote', Duda is up to 46% - which would be enough IMO.
My personal judgement is that Duda needs 42% in the first round to win. That assumes that Duda will be preferred by 70% of Bosak voters (+3.5%), 20% of Hołownia voters (2%) and 30% of WKK voters (2.7%). It's not in tune with what polls are saying, but I'm not entirely convinced by the argument that 30-40% of Bosak voters will go to Duda.
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