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When will Poland take on the EURO?


STProp
18 May 2015 #1
Poland does not use the euro as its currency. However, under the terms of their Treaty of Accession with the European Union, all new Member States "shall participate in the Economic and Monetary Union from the date of accession as a Member State with a derogation", which means that Poland is obliged to replace its currency, the złoty, with the euro eventually.

There is no target date for Polish euro adoption, and no fixed date for when the country will join ERM-II (the fifth euro convergence criterion).

/wiki/Poland_and_the_euro

BUT if they don't change then its in breach of their Treaty of Accession, meaning all the Poles across the EU will have their immigration status revoked regardless of getting another citizenship or not as it would equate to fraud and Poland would become deeply indebted to the EU for all the loans they have taken.

What are your thoughts.

It was not very long ago that Poland said they will join the EURO in 2015 and it now looks like they keep pushing the date every 5 year to 2020.

So in 2020 it will be 2025... How long will the EU put up with this?

Not to mention Greece is about to default and exit the EU, this will make Brussels tighten up on any loose strings.

I am amazed Poland can get away with it. When it comes to other member states, the lawyers are all rowing in the same bathtub.
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
18 May 2015 #2
Poland will join the eurozone only after the EU cleans up its act. There is no snese adopting a sick euro when the złoty is serving them well. Besides, it is not up to Poland -- Warsaw must fulfil certain financial requirements and those have not all been achieved. It is not known whether the euro itself will survive. Different countries are reportedly mulling a return to their national currency.
Levi_BR 6 | 219
18 May 2015 #3
Hopefully never.
Put countries like Germany or Denmark in the same basket as Greece was a stupid idea from the beginning.
Gosc123456
18 May 2015 #4
@Levi: Denmark does NOT have Euro ;).
pweeg
18 May 2015 #5
Not even Greece wants to leave the Euro.

Paradoxly the Euro could help defend Poland sovereignty. Imagine if some vicious fascist regime attacked poland, it's currency would not collapse as it did in Ukraine or Poland in 1939. My grandparents had a drawer full of paper money which became worthless upon the invasion.

With the Euro Poland would still be able to buy weapons to fight with.
OP STProp
19 May 2015 #6
I now hear the west wants to do away with cash totally. It will all be digits in the bank.
Makes it easy for them to rob you and stops you hiding it under the mattress.
johnny reb 29 | 5,117
19 May 2015 #7
You heard right STProp.
Cash is the biggest nightmare for the governments.
Cash is becoming obsolete.
You can't rent a hotel room with cash, rent a car with cash, get a private utility like satelite or phone service with cash and the list goes on.

You now write a personal check and it is run thru an electronic scanner and handed back to you
with the funds from your account taken out instantly.
Credit cards tell them what you bought, when you bought it and where you bought it.
They know what kind of food you eat, how much gas you put in your car, who your insurance company is, have access to all your health records and that list goes on.

The Euro (if it survives) will soon fall into this digital CONTROL factor also.
Poland will go digital before it goes to the failing Euro.
Everyone in developed countries are just a number.......... soon to come to your home town.
When they put that chip under your skin so they can just scan it for you to pay for all your expenses from food to your health care records, remember what prophesy said over 2000 years ago about the "Mark of the Beast' in the last days.
50%polish
3 Jul 2015 #8
Tusk was only given the EU job to lure Poland into a dying currency that will make Poles paper value drop immediately. However the Euro has never been this cheap in a long time which would reduce some of that capital loss.

Still is this a good deal with joining a house that has massive debt in every country?

It is a currency mutual fund for bankers IMO. This is a bankers haven. Much more work to control the politics and media with countries acting as individuals. Lump them together and you quickly need to influence a small group of leaders and the rest is along for the ride.
jon357 67 | 16,841
3 Jul 2015 #9
Poles paper value

You mean publicly tradable shares and other tradable securities? Papiery wartościowe?

Still is this a good deal with joining a house that has massive debt in every country?

Indeed, however the best time to ask that question was before the EU accession vote - an issue that was hotly debated before going to the polls and agreeing to it.
50%polish
4 Jul 2015 #10
I mean the currency exchange.

When will Poland use the Euro? What year is scheduled?

That is what is meant.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,475
4 Jul 2015 #11
When will Poland use the Euro? What year is scheduled?

Nothing is scheduled. As it stands for the Polish economy, entering at 4.2 would be far too low, but the economy needs the exchange rate to be artificially low in order to help exports. Joining at 3.7ish would probably be ideal, but that number won't happen anytime soon.

By the way, the Złoty is far weaker than the Euro. Every time the Euro coughs, the Złoty tends to sneeze.
50%polish
4 Jul 2015 #12
that is the key for success for Poland attracting investment to poland and as you advocated, exports.

But if prices do not stay in line for consumers then the people suffer and there may be some adverse effects.

Brain drain, young people leaving for wealth which I find a lack of loyalty for money, build Poland if you polish.
Price pressure on families, health care, college, food, energy, ect. not good for the standard of living can be a drag in the economy for profits.

-Jobs, should increase unless their is geopolitical disadvantage in the region. (can't just specifically look at the Eurozone)
-Eurasia is the future, the America TPP is telling the world that. So listen carefully. The money of the world is going to the poor asian nations through free trade for the elites' ability to exploit cheap labor. That is not good for Poland unless they transport those goods to the EU. Poland needs to be a hub for exchange.

-Africa is the future as well and will increase investment attraction with 1 billion people, its happening.

Look up the world bankers speech at Standford University, it is good to hear it from the insiders.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,475
4 Jul 2015 #13
Prices rising under the Euro has been proven to be largely a myth. What the Germans found is that people often falsely converted in their heads - 2DM is not 1EUR, but rather 1.95something - so prices almost automatically increased (in their minds) by 2-3%.

Experience now shows that before the changeover, you need to display dual prices - and you need to keep dual pricing for a while afterwards in order to reassure customers. If you do this, price increases just don't happen - unless the government sneaks in extra taxes at the time of change, like Germany did.
jon357 67 | 16,841
4 Jul 2015 #14
Prices always do creep up after a currency change - shopkeepers rarely miss a trick. They certainly rose in Holland when the Euro arrived, just as they did in the UK when decimalisation (ugh) came in in 1971. And in Poland when PLZ changed to PLN.

And in Poland, there's a history of price rises but never decreases.
Polsyr 6 | 769
4 Jul 2015 #15
And a general lack of social-corporate responsibility doesn't help with that. Everyone is in to make a quick buck, even if stupidly so.
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
4 Jul 2015 #16
price rises

Robert Biedroń, once Poland's first self-admitted homo MP, now the mayor of some Baltic backwater, wants Poland to adopt the euro and has criticised PiS PM appointee Beata Szydło for opposing it. He must also be an economic masochist who'd get turned on by seeing Poland plunge into a Greek-like imbroglio. He should really stick to his homo stuff, local trash collection and riding his bicycle around town. Even serious economists like Dariusz Rosati said on TV yesterday that euro adoption was probably a decade or more away. Fortunately Biedroń's private views have no impact on the decision.

rp.pl/artykul/16,1213128.html
delphiandomine 88 | 18,475
4 Jul 2015 #17
Polonius, "baltic backwater"?

It's the third biggest city in Pomorskie.

And yes, he speaks sense. Those of us that actually are involved with business with Eurozone countries can see how difficult it is to take the risk on currency exchange because you never know what's going to happen. I know one guy who lost nearly 100,000CHF recently on the unpegging of the CHF - and yes, he lost everything.
jon357 67 | 16,841
4 Jul 2015 #18
It's the third biggest city in Pomorskie.

And yes, he speaks sense. Those of us that actually are involved with business with Eurozone countries can see how difficult it is to take the risk on currency exchange because you never know what's going to happen.

Yes, and the Mayor in question is highly respected - probably the most respected of all Polish politicians right now.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,475
4 Jul 2015 #19
Yes, he's a very serious challenger to Duda in 2020 if he goes for it. His cleaning up of Slupsk, such as demanding openess and transparency for the heads of city companies is gaining him massive popularity in Slupsk, as is the fact that he's saving money in some areas of the budget and using it to pay for things that ordinary people need like social housing.

His sexual orientation is a non-issue for the voters of Slupsk.
jon357 67 | 16,841
4 Jul 2015 #20
a very serious challenger to Duda in 2020

By 2020 I suspect we'll either be in the Euro or negotiating access. The problem is certain politicians who think Poland should go in at a 1 EUR = 1 PLN rate - comical, given the economic base of the country.
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
4 Jul 2015 #21
probably the most respected of all Polish politicians right now.

Wishful thinking! On a ranking of nationally known politicians he would be way down near the bottom.

serious challenger to Duda

And Grodzka as PM and Palikot as speaker of the Sejm would turn Poland into a true freak show.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,475
4 Jul 2015 #22
I think so too, unless PiS come in and destroy the whole economic base of the country just to make sure that Poland can't meet the accession requirements.

But I think everyone knows that the issue with the Euro is the exchange rate. 1 EUR -> 1 PLN would destroy the country economically (like it destroyed East Germany), but obviously Poland can't enter at 4.2 as well. Finding that happy balance will be exceptionally difficult, I think.
Harry
4 Jul 2015 #23
By 2020 I suspect we'll either be in the Euro or negotiating access.

I'd be amazed if Poland isn't in the Euro by 2025, absolutely astounded.

His cleaning up of Slupsk, such as demanding openess and transparency for the heads of city companies is gaining him massive popularity in Slupsk, as is the fact that he's saving money in some areas of the budget and using it to pay for things that ordinary people need like social housing.

I lived for a year in Slupsk (which is one reason that I, unlike a certain, know that Slupsk is not a "small Baltic port") and still know people up there. Biedron is massively popular up there and word about how good he is is spreading fast. But Biedron isn't being original by pointing out that Poland's long-term future is in the Euro-zone, pretty much every serious politician, economist and businessman agrees on that.

PiS PM appointee Beata Szydło

They've apppointed a PM without bothering with an election? The Dear Leader's father would most certainly approve.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,475
4 Jul 2015 #24
I actually wonder how long the EU will continue to tolerate countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic not making firm plans to join the Euro. It's clear that Poland is obliged by their Treaty of Accession to adopt the Euro, so it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
4 Jul 2015 #25
Poland is obliged

How was it that the UK and Norway conveniently managed to opt out of the euro zone?

Poland's long-term future

Except the EU won't last that long. People are getting fed up with overpaid eurocrats trying to show they're doing something by thinking up an "environmentally friendly" light bulb (that spews poison gas when broken), a "new and improved" mail box, a "better" mouse-trap, etc. and then forcing them down everyone's throat.
jestespalant
4 Jul 2015 #26
" forcing them down everyone's throat "
ha ha ha ha, very apt
delphiandomine 88 | 18,475
4 Jul 2015 #27
How was it that the UK and Norway conveniently managed to opt out of the euro zone?

Norway isn't in the EU.

Among pre-Euro countries that have stayed out - the UK negotiated an opt-out, Sweden has been tolerated because their agreement to join the EU was before the Maastricht Treaty and Denmark has an opt-out as well, although Denmark has their currency pegged to the Euro anyway. However, with the 2004, 2007 and 2013 countries, there is no such thing - there's a legal obligation to join. If Poland didn't want to join the Euro, the time to negotiate that was in 2002-3.

Except the EU won't last that long. People are getting fed up with overpaid eurocrats trying to show they're doing something by thinking up an "environmentally friendly" light bulb (that spews poison gas when broken), a "new and improved" mail box, a "better" mouse-trap, etc. and then forcing them down everyone's throat.

Most of us prefer this stuff to the situation before the EU, when we were too busy killing each other over minor differences.

Anyway, the EU is irrevocable now. Some countries might drop out on the periphery, but the core European economies are just far too closely linked to be broken easily now.
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
4 Jul 2015 #28
EU is irrevocable now.

In life,politics and foreign affairs nothing is irrevocable. Never forget the Thousand Year Reich that lasted all of 12 years! Or Stalin's assurance that communism was the "wave of the future because progress is unstoppable" (incidentally one of jon's favourite sayings).
JollyRomek 7 | 481
4 Jul 2015 #29
Thousand Year Reich that lasted all of 12 years! Or Stalin's

With the exception that the Soviet Union was a forced Union and the German Reich a dictatorship that just anschlussed whatever it felt was German.

The European Union is the complete opposite. Countries join voluntarily and there is in fact a line of countries waiting for acceptance. Yes, once you join that club there are certain rules and obligations but nobody forces a country to join that club.

Your comparison Stalin / German Reich vs. EU is as intelligent as asking why Norway did not have to opt in for the Euro or interrupting a conversation about Czech Beer by throwing "Bud Lite" into it.......
gumishu 11 | 5,639
4 Jul 2015 #30
It's clear that Poland is obliged by their Treaty of Accession to adopt the Euro, so it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.

the treaty doesn't provide a deadline for Poland and Czech Republic to adopt euro - it can well be in 20 years


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