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Poland's post-election political scene


delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
23 Oct 2018  #3,871
Activists for Kukiz.

Yeah, many of them got bored very quickly with Kukiz. You hardly saw any of them this time round, and I don't think I saw a single poster of theirs.

However, it's good to see that the youth vote is so diverse.
Spike31 1 | 378    
24 Oct 2018  #3,872
hat's what you call a party on the rise?

Be so kind and don't twist my words. I wrote: "In Poland there's a completely different trend and conservatism is on the rise" not that "Kukiz 15 is on the rise".

The projected results right now:

PiS - 257
KO - 192
PSL - 70
SLD - 10
BS - 10
MN - 5

Like you can clearly see, even those partial and still unofficial results that you've shared clearly shows that PiS has gained more popularity since local elections in 2014 when they won 171 mandates.

2014 local elections were followed by gaining a majority for PiS in the Parliament elections in 2015.

Those early 2018 local results shows that PiS will also gain a majority in 2019 Parliamentary elections.
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
24 Oct 2018  #3,873
clearly shows that PiS has gained more popularity since local elections in 2014 when they won 171 mandates.

Except they've also clearly shown that PiS have lost popularity since the 2015 election when they won nearly 38% of the vote. You can twist it how you want, but for a party that was boasting about having "secret polling showing 45% support", they've lost rather badly.

Those early 2018 local results shows that PiS will also gain a majority in 2019 Parliamentary elections.

On those results? Not likely. They needed the 20% of wasted votes to get the majority, and those results clearly show that the same thing won't happen again. There's no chance of winning a majority with 33% of the vote unless the percentage of wasted votes goes up to 25% or more.
Ironside 47 | 9,251    
24 Oct 2018  #3,874
which is left wing politics at the most insane.

why? Are you a neo-con ?
Dirk diggler 7 | 3,875    
24 Oct 2018  #3,875
Im surprised the most by kukiz result to be honest... i figured pis would remain 1st place but not as comfortably as before.
Dirk diggler 7 | 3,875    
24 Oct 2018  #3,876
But give out handouts to Poles to take away their incentive to work. Which means the rest of us have to pay for them.

The welfare in poland is only something like 80 euro. And even then you have to prove youre looking for work. You cant survive on that amount plus they wont keep giving you that money infinetely so i dont see how it reduces incentive to work. Its not like germany or uk where you get a nice council home and a bunch of money i.e. job seekers allowance or the 1200 germany spends on people who arent even citizens. Even the 500 z plan is to boost birth rates and help out poor families.
Spike31 1 | 378    
24 Oct 2018  #3,877
Except they've also clearly shown that PiS have lost popularity since the 2015 election when they won nearly 38% of the vote

My friend, how many times should I tell you that local elections doesn't directly translate into major, parliamentary elections. They only show a major trend with voters. And PiS has clearly gained the ground since the last local elections.

You are very resistant to arguments. But that's all right, I guess we'll have to wait until 2019 parliamentary elections to continue with this discussion. Time will pass anyway.
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
24 Oct 2018  #3,878
Even the 500 z plan is to boost birth rates and help out poor families.

Hasn't worked though. Births are down according to the latest data, and the spike seen was just a spike and not a long term trend.

Im surprised the most by kukiz result to be honest

This is probably where you don't get the full picture by not being here (no offence intended, it's quite difficult to get the full picture even living here - took me ages to figure all this out), but basically - Kukiz originally came about because a group of very powerful local mayors wanted to protect themselves (and their kingdoms) against central government. PO had imposed some mining taxes, which had reduced the income of those cities (CIT taxes are partially given to the place of residence of he company, while the mining tax went to central government). In retaliation, those mayors supported Kukiz to try and gain influence in national politics. He did better than expected in the Presidential election, so they supported him in the 2015 national election too. It very nearly worked - had Nowoczesna not existed, PiS would have needed K'15 to form a government.

So, move forward, and Kukiz starts to behave very erratically. His 'party' (officially it isn't one, hence they don't get central funding) started to push in all sorts of directions that those mayors didn't agree with, and Kukiz found himself quite isolated. Winnicki, Morawiecki and others left the K'15 grouping in the Sejm, and those mayors also broke formal cooperation with him when it became obvious that he was unable to influence government policy.

In this election, you'll notice that there's a grouping called "Bezpartyni Samorządowcy" - that's the group of these mayors, who are now attempting to get into national politics by themselves rather than through the rather ad hoc way that K'15 was formed. They don't really have much of a platform beyond "give us money for our towns", but in fairness, Lubin (the home of the effective leader of BS) is a very nice place to live, including one of the biggest and best public parks in Poland.

So anyway, in this election, Kukiz'15 effectively found themselves not only without the support of those mayors, but also without Morawiecki senior and Robert Winnicki. He had no real platform, no local structures and the K'15 candidates were nobodies. The message that he pushed leading up to the 2015 election is more or less identical to the one of PiS today, so he had really nothing to differentiate himself. Kukiz is trying now to focus on economic issues (for instance, pointing out the absurdity of spending huge amounts of cash on independence celebrations and not on disabled people) and he's doing a good job of it, but voters are mostly economically illiterate and simply don't understand.

That's why K'15 did badly, Effectively, the supporters of the BS mayors abandoned him, while he simply had nothing new or interesting to offer voters. To hold onto 6% of the vote was quite a good result, all things considered. However, the almost complete lack of grass roots support cost him badly - for instance in 2015, he had both Kornel Morawiecki and Robert Winnicki to pick up 1% each, which he didn't have this time.
undercover    
24 Oct 2018  #3,879
Except they've also clearly shown that PiS have lost popularity since the 2015 election when they won nearly 38% of the vote.

Of course not. You had it expalined at least 10 times here already. You can live in your fantasy world of PiS losing popularity but it simply isn't so. I don't understand it, do you folks get errection when writing lies ? Or what is it all about ? They got the best result ever in the locals, just get over it.
undercover    
24 Oct 2018  #3,880
They had their faults (very many) but they were considerably more right wing economically than PiS....

What's so "right wing economically" in selling national property to "foreign investors" for 10% of their value ? Or keeping the minimal wage at the lowest level in Europe ? According to this logic the most "right wing economically" are the worst African shitholes.
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
24 Oct 2018  #3,881
What's so "right wing economically" in selling national property to "foreign investors" for 10% of their value ?

Because it simply didn't happen, and it's a classic Communist myth to claim that it did. The PZPR used to claim that the "elites" also "sold out Poland", too.

The truth is that PiS are only against privatisation because it stops them packing companies with their cronies.
Dougpol1 26 | 2,152    
24 Oct 2018  #3,882
That's alright Delph. We don't know what undercover does for a living. That's why he's "undercover"
Otherwise known as the man with no voice. He only cares about his historical or mythical view of Poland - while the government **** themselves laughing that they are exploiting people just like him. Poland, the glorious, mythical country of Sobieski et al. He doesn't have to put food on the family table I would wager. His politics are so far removed from reality as to prove that he is not really living.

Sorry Undercover - but like the rest of us, you can get a life you know. It just takes a little effort.
undercover    
25 Oct 2018  #3,883
Because it simply didn't happen

Just check in a friggin google the amount of money that "foreign investors" paid for "privatized" banks and how much profits they made in the following years.

"The west" has been piming the "liberal capitalism" upon develping countries while playing totally different game domestically. Go check what happened when Chinese got rich enough to buy (or rather try to) any significant assets in the west. You dudes simply have no clue about the reality around you.

but like the rest of us, you can get a life you know

Said by fat the most clowing PF poster ever.
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
25 Oct 2018  #3,884
the amount of money that "foreign investors" paid for "privatized" banks and how much profits they made in the following years.

How much money did they inject into the Polish banking system? How about their experience and know-how that made Poland a stable place to invest?

You're such a lovely old commie Greggy, even down to your pathological hatred of foreign capital.
undercover    
25 Oct 2018  #3,885
How about their experience and know-how that made Poland a stable place to invest?

Which "know-how" ? The e-banking solutions usually spread out of Poland to the other branches in the group, not the other way around. The scoring systems must be created locally. But you don't even know what I am talking about. How about you go a find a real job and see how the things really work ?

How much money did they inject into the Polish banking system?

Go and enlight me, I'm waiting :))

You're such a lovely old commie Greggy

LOL ! You are a useless clown. What's really funny, I used to think pretty much the same things. When I was like 13-15 years old.
Ironside 47 | 9,251    
29 Oct 2018  #3,886
An article about Poland in Foreign Policy: Poland's Opposition Has Nobody to Blame but Itself by Daniel Tilles, Tom Junes.
Spike31 1 | 378    
30 Oct 2018  #3,887
So I read that PiS has already acquired a few PSL activists in local councils. They've also made a coalition with SLD in one of them. It looks like PiS is slowly absorbing lesser opposition parties. So they not only won the local elections but also getting more traction in "local" Poland
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
30 Oct 2018  #3,888
They've also made a coalition with SLD

Oh look, "anti-communist" PiS forming a coalition with actual post-communists.

Comrades of different colours, that's all.
Spike31 1 | 378    
30 Oct 2018  #3,889
Actually, SLD leader forbid such a coalition as not-so-very-constructive opposition wanted to form a solid anti-PiS block. Yet, local leaders wanted to make a stable coalition and work for their local communities instead of fighting in pointless wars. The whole post-election political scene in Poland looks more and more interesting
Ziemowit 12 | 3,101    
30 Oct 2018  #3,890
Comrades of different colours, unite ! - you wanrted to say?
Spike31 1 | 378    
30 Oct 2018  #3,891
An article about Poland in Foreign Policy: Poland's Opposition Has Nobody to Blame but Itself by Daniel Tilles, Tom Junes.

Good article. The authors have actually a good grasp of Polish politics which is quite uncommon for foreign commentators
Spike31 1 | 378    
30 Oct 2018  #3,892
Comrades of different colours, unite ! - you wanrted to say?

Nope. I despise communists and communism in general. For me PiS is simply a proxy to remove the remnants of the old system. By any means possible. And to do that they need to have a stable majority.

I don't fancy their economic policy since I'm a believer in capitalism myself. No other economic system is as productive. The problem is that in Europe capitalism on a way out and replaced by eurosocialism.

Yet, PiS is useful for removing old commies from Supreme Court and for opposing leftist bureaucrats from the EU and their agenda of cultural marxism.

So, looking at a modern political scene in Poland, PiS is a lesser evil.

Jak sie nie ma co sie lubi, to sie lubi co sie ma :-)
mafketis 16 | 6,290    
30 Oct 2018  #3,893
For me PiS is simply a proxy to remove the remnants of the old system

JK was ears deep in the old system (his biography makes no sense without the assumption that his family had party friends and connections) and they have a communist prosecutor in a very public position.

So.... no, PiS is not about removing remnants of the old system.
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
30 Oct 2018  #3,894
Comrades of different colours, unite ! - you wanrted to say?

Yup, exactly that! ;)

Nope. I despise communists and communism in general.

So why are you promoting PiS, who put an ex-SB boss in charge of the biggest Polish company? Or the same party that put a Communist prosecutor in charge of the justice committee? Or indeed, the same party that has the child of a well known PZPR doctor as Justice Minister?

You don't despise communism at all.

So.... no, PiS is not about removing remnants of the old system.

It's rather about returning to that previous system. You mentioned it before, how PiS tend to strangle and humiliate any talent they have while promoting mediocrity way beyond their level. Misiewicz was the poster child with his fat bumpkin arrogance, but there's many more of them all over Poland.

Look at the WIG20 - it was at 2500 before the 2015 Presidential election, now it's down to 2100. Given that it's dominated by state-controlled companies, it's a clear sign that PiS are mishandling state assets.

As for Kaczyński, one simply didn't get into legal studies (and one certainly didn't get 5 in Marxism) without being up to their ears in the previous system.
Dougpol1 26 | 2,152    
30 Oct 2018  #3,895
Look

You're wasting your time Delph. Spike has been listening to his grandad's stories. Most likely, his grand-dad doesn't have to suffer this nonsense that is PIS anymore either, and comments from afar.

And we know that once Poles leave Poland, they don't really give a stuff for their country, money and it's accoutrements becoming far more important to them.
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
30 Oct 2018  #3,896
Quite, Doug. I always find these people keenly pushing PiS from abroad to be clearly doing it for their own benefit.

It's very similar to the way that the "Polish-American Congress" was paid off in the US.
Spike31 1 | 378    
30 Oct 2018  #3,897
So why are you promoting PiS

I'm not promoting PiS but simply accepting them as a lesser evil. We've got two major blocks in our parliament and out of those two, PiS is a lesser evil and an useful proxy. Trust me, my preferences are more radical - especially when it comes to economy and foreign politics - than PiS but they can't be materialized in a current parliament.

Or indeed, the same party that has the child of a well known PZPR doctor as Justice Minister?

So much for the better if the dogs jump to bite their own throats. People like Piotrowicz will be twice as aggressive since they have to prove that they're not one of them anymore. And once you use such a people you can dispose them since they have a mentality of a prostitute and won't be reliable in the future.

Stop being such a simpleton and get familiar with classics like Sun Tzu.

And we know that once Poles leave Poland, they don't really give a stuff for their country

I didn't "left" Poland but simply got a temporary contract in London. When it's completed I'm coming back. It will give me financial freedom and money to invest in Poland.
johnny reb 16 | 3,461    
30 Oct 2018  #3,898
And we know that once Poles leave Poland, they don't really give a stuff for their country, money and it's accoutrements becoming far more important to them.

That sounds like a loser that is jealous of someone that has been more successful then themselves by making a better choice in life.
What is wrong with bettering themselves. and their families, to have the things that they could never have had staying in their comfort zone crying to see others succeed in their dreams.

Many of the expat Poles in America send tons of money back to Poland to help their struggling families.
Several of my Polish friends here in the U.S.A. make trips back to Poland frequently to visit their family and friends.
So saying that Poles don't really give a stuff for their country once they leave is not totally true.
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
30 Oct 2018  #3,899
I'm not promoting PiS

Yet you seem to push their politics constantly. Are you like Jaki, who was so ashamed of the party that he represented that he claimed to be an independent candidate? Or like Wassermann, who is also claiming the same thing in Kraków?

So much for the better

There's nothing better about ex-Communists looking after judicial "reform".

Many of the expat Poles in America send tons of money back to Poland to help their struggling families.

Not that tired old "we send tons of money back!" line again. You'll spend more than $50 a head in a decent restaurant in Poland, so their pitiful contribution means nothing.
Spike31 1 | 378    
30 Oct 2018  #3,900
Yet you seem to push their politics constantly.

No, you are confusing me not taking part in a hysterical cries and grudges against the ruling party with "constantly pushing their politics"

Those boxes that you're trying to squeeze me in are as narrow as you political horizons my friend :-)



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