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Poland's new golden age : shifting from Europe's periphery to its center


peterweg 36 | 2,316
14 Oct 2013  #1
Poland: at the dawn of a golden age?

- As a result, in 2013 Poland has achieved levels of income, quality of life, and well-being never experienced before. This year, its GDP per capita will reach 62 percent of the level of income in the developed countries of Western Europe (Euro-area 17), Poland's natural benchmark and an objective of social aspirations, up from below 30 percent in 1992. It will also achieve the highest level of income relative to Western Europe since the year 1500, thus in just about twenty years offsetting more than 500 years of economic decline, a historically unprecedented achievement.
- The country was a basket case in 1989.

Summary here: blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/10/14/poland-at-the-dawn-of-a-golden-age/
delphiandomine 83 | 17,596
14 Oct 2013  #2
Long-term projections by the European Commission, the OECD and independent forecasters suggest that Poland will likely reach up to 80 percent of the EU-15 level of income by 2030, the highest relative level ever.

Works for me.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
14 Oct 2013  #3
Europe's largest economy is enjoying its greatest period of stability since the country appeared on the map of European history more than a thousand years ago.

Poland has overtaken Germany as the largest economy in Europe?

Anecdotal, but I speak to a few local company people (not IT but manufacturing) and their story is of not being paid by their corporate customers and having to borrow to pay wages. I also hear a fair old bit from local staff at firms here who tell me there are signs of cutting costs at every turn. Could all be BS to put me off applying for work at these places, of course, but that's what I'm told. I'm not able to promise it's all true because I don't really have any way of checking. But, I don't know why they'd lie to me, they'd not be (suffering!?) working with me even if I was hired by their bosses. And of course, I hear moaning about how hard it is to get a job from almost everyone I meet.

Conversely, those who are doing well seem to be doing well, big time. More new posh cars here than I ever saw in Hampstead.

Gap between the rich and poor widening? Not good for society if so, is it?
TheOther 5 | 3,643
15 Oct 2013  #4
Poland is exporting her unemployment while attracting low paying jobs and receiving billions of EU funds. Only when all of this has stopped and the country is able to stand on its own feet, is it time to celebrate. People like Marcin Piatkowski aren't doing Poland a favor with their glowing reports.
OP peterweg 36 | 2,316
15 Oct 2013  #5
Poland has overtaken Germany as the largest economy in Europe?

Missed off Central.

Sorry, mod deleted the whole FT article and asked me to summarize it. Well I'm not going to spend an hour re-writing someone else's summary.

So, read the link (FT.com needs sign up)

Gap between the rich and poor widening? Not good for society if so, is it?

Not, but its true in Poland as else where. I can't think of a solution except communism and look how that worked out.

Poland is exporting her unemployment while attracting low paying jobs and receiving billions of EU funds.

Thats perfect, what your problem?

Only when all of this has stopped and the country is able to stand on its own feet, is it time to celebrate. People like Marcin Piatkowski aren't doing Poland a favor with their glowing reports.

At the end of the EU funding Poland will be able to stand on her own feet, because thats what the funding is for - infrastructure.

Piatkowski is doing Poland a great favour because every politician and industrialists on the planet will read/have access to this report. This will encourage them to come here and spend money and invest.

Amazon is just one example of this momentum. several thousand (admittedly ****) jobs for Wroclaw and Poznan, a direct result of the improved road infrastructure provided by the EU and an understanding of Polands economy as a current and future attraction.
TheOther 5 | 3,643
15 Oct 2013  #6
Amazon is just one example of this momentum.

A direct result of the strikes that hit Amazon in Germany. American companies hate unions and worker's councils. They'd rather close down a location than dealing with them.

Poland will be able to stand on her own feet

As soon as wages reach a certain threshold, most of the newly created low paying jobs as well as many better paying positions will be moved out of Poland. So on what feet will the country stand after that?

Thats perfect, what your problem?

It distracts from reality.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
15 Oct 2013  #7
Not, but its true in Poland as else where

Am noticing more of those people who walk around with carts and go through bins for things to sell and tin cans, etc, in the past 6 months, I really am. I do feel for them and of course am hoping I won't be joining them soon. On the other hand, like I've said so many times, so many people on these roads and parked up seem to have a new car and 4x4. Some people have either made a lot of cash on property or something here, or have been tempted by presumably easy credit. There are so many banks here. One bank team member told me customers are becoming very demanding and if they don't get what they want, they walk. Taking that to heart, I went to another branch and asked for an increase in my savings interest rate -- I was told no way Jose unless I wanted to tie it up or risk it somehow. I wonder if they're similarly rigid to a customer when someone's refused a loan or offered a high rate on a loan. If they're weak about lending criteria, we know where that leads don't we.
pierogi2000 4 | 229
15 Oct 2013  #8
Not, but its true in Poland as else where. I can't think of a solution except communism and look how that worked out.

Nordic Model. But I don't blame people for getting greedy after growing up in a half century long cloudy and depressing society.
Monitor 14 | 1,821
15 Oct 2013  #9
from 62% to 80% in 17 years doesn't look like something impressive. 80% is around the level of Greece 2010.

Gap between the rich and poor widening? Not good for society if so, is it?

Actually it's getting smaller according to statistics. Your observation is recently higher unemployment.

Amazon is just one example of this momentum. several thousand (admittedly ****) jobs for Wroclaw and Poznan, a direct result of the improved road infrastructure provided by the EU and an understanding of Polands economy as a current and future attraction.

Wrocław had highway connection with Germany for a long time, also 10 years ago when Amazon was opening first centers in Germany. Probably Amazon is going to enter Polish market and starts from building logistic centers here.

A direct result of the strikes that hit Amazon in Germany. American companies hate unions and worker's councils. They'd rather close down a location than dealing with them.

They could build their centers in Czech Republic.

peterweg:
Poland will be able to stand on her own feet

As soon as wages reach a certain threshold, most of the newly created low paying jobs as well as many better paying positions will be moved out of Poland. So on what feet will the country stand after that?

Then growth will slow down. It doesn't necessarily mean that unemployment will rise.
DominicB - | 2,663
15 Oct 2013  #10
Wrocław had highway connection with Germany for a long time

Actually, if by "highway" you mean "autostrada", it didn't. The main western stretch of the A4 wasn't opened until 2006, and the rest of the way to the German border at Zgorzelec until 2009. Before then, travel to Germany was a major pain. And the connector to Berlin (A-18) is still not completed, as far as I know, and won't be for about five years or so. The main stretch, though open to traffic, is actually still not completed, and won't be for some time. It needs to be expanded and overhauled. At this time, it is a funtional temporary overhaul of the pre-existing German autobahn. It needs to be widened; right now, it does not have emergency lanes, and parts of it will need to be redesigned and rebuilt. The amount of traffic is going to jump radically once the eastern stretch of the A4 from Tarnów to the Ukrainian border opens up, hopefully next year or the year after.
TheOther 5 | 3,643
15 Oct 2013  #11
They could build their centers in Czech Republic.

They could, but from a logistics point of view Poland is the better location and the differences between the Czech and Polish minimum wages is only marginal.

epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/images/archive/d/d2/20130912103051!MW_map_EUR_July_2013.png

Then growth will slow down. It doesn't necessarily mean that unemployment will rise.

What I meant is that you have to replace the lost jobs with something else, as it happened in western Europe in the past. What Poland needs is a solid manufacturing base and products which are competitive on the global market. As long as there are only a handful (if at all), the country will be forced to compete with others for low paying jobs. Unemployment is hidden because the young and highly educated people still leave Poland. To paint the state of the economy in rosy colors as Marcin Piatkowski did is therefore misleading.


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