The Iran war and Poland

That's my feeling to.

It's very easy to say what should be done. Saying how is a much harder task and actually doing it, especially under massive constraints is harder by an order of magnitude

It's possible that they could simply collapse, sure.

Nobody thought that the 50-year old Assad regime could fall in just a matter of two weeks.

Nobody anticipated how quickly Hezbollah would crumble without the charismatic leadership of Nasrallah.

It's possible that the Islamic Republic is also just one big rotten facade that will come crashing down with a further couple kicks.

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I don't see its collapse as likely, however, unless Israel and Washington can convince Russia and China that this is in its interests. I can't speak for China, but I can explain how Israel could convince Russia:

1) Russia has incredibly close ties with Israel, through our diaspora. Up to 15% of Israel's population, are people from the former Soviet Union. Becoming an enemy of our own former compatriots, and by proxy the rest of international Jewry - is maybe not in Russia's interest.

2) Russia has increasingly close ties with Saudi Arabia (where we steer OPEC+ together), and the UAE (where many rich Russians live, and which is conduit for a large part of the sanctions busting trade). These two states are incredibly nervous about living next to Iran. They could reward us handsomely for sitting out this fight.

3) Under no circumstances is Russia interested in Iran having a nuke. In the past Israel had convinced us to halt jet fighter exports to Iran, and also managed to restrict the S-400 anti-air shipments to just a single battery. If Israel manages to convince Russia that a nuclear Iran is a virtual inevitability, that could convince Russia to stay out.

4) Last year, Russia became Iran's largest foreign investor. Israel, or whoever they have convinced to come and run Iran (the Shah, some liberals, whomever), has to make representations that all Russian property rights will be respected - including in Iran's key oil and gas industry.

5) All other agreements must be respected as well. Including the trade liberalization agreements, and the agreement to build the civilian nuclear power plant at Bushehr.

6) Whatever critical imports we require from Iran in support of the military operation in Ukraine, must continue to flow.

That's far more likely. It's a fragile state with a regime hated by millions of its on citizens.

Even large sections of their army and police hate the regime.

They can capitulate

War.

Trup said "Next week is going to be very big".

Nobody knew how big it was going to be before he said it.

telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/06/18/israel-iran-war-nuclear-us-trump-gaza-latest-news/

The internet is down in all of Iran. There were cyberattacks. The Italian PM had flown to Iran, and the Chinese are transporting something in fleets of planes to Iran.

The Seppos are sending a fleet to the Indian Ocean and the U.K. have a COBRA meeting and will doubtless be talking about granting them access to Diego Garcia.

Looks like this is it.

Look for the Great Satan to utilise the Dahiya doctrine with iSSrael and break the norms of war again.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dahiya_doctrine

Nothing new.

He needs congressional approval to wage a war anyway. He is unlikely to get that approval

BILD says:


bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/bericht-usa-planen-angriff-auf-iran-in-den-naechsten-tagen-685360fd5cc1ca15643e17c7

....somehow fits to his X-post yesterday....that Russia should keep out of it.....

Less than a week after the start of the war in the Middle East, Israel declared that its aircraft had "free rein" in the airspace above the Iranian capital Tehran. Iran responded overnight with small rocket salvos against Israel. Washington is reporting that it is preparing for an emergency.

According to information from the Bloomberg portal, the US government is preparing for a possible military strike against Iran - it could happen as early as the next few days. Insiders report that the situation is developing rapidly and remains unpredictable. Some sources even consider an attack as early as this weekend. "We want total, complete victory," said US President Donald Trump (79) at the White House on Wednesday. He added:"You know what victory is? Not a nuclear weapon."

That! :)

Poland helped evacuate Germans from Israel. And that's great.

Trump has approved attack plans on Iran, and will wait to give the order according to multiple reports now. This Iran regime should have been taken out when Reagan was president. Flatten them and let the Sha's kid go back in a transition government. Cut the head off the snake.

Yup! Now is the time!!!!

i see you're part of the FAGIA movement. (F*CK AMERICA GET ISRAEL AHEAD)

Oh well if it takes another stupid adventure overseas for the American Empire to fall so be it.

Just like Great Britain and the Suez Canal.

You have the same enemy! Don't you care at all?

• 
  Iranian burning US flag
  
• 
  Iran's factories produce thousands of US, Israeli and British flags for protesters to burn
  

I don't know what to think of this crisis

Attacking Iran might have merits but also gives another signal to North Nigeria, China and any other dictators that the US will attack just because they don't like you. The result will be more countries developing nukes.

Attacking without a "what next ?" plan is insane. Will be another big failed state to go with Iraq, Libya, Syria and Somalia, more refugees in Europe and security problems for decades.

The Shah's son ? Is that the plan ? My god

Hmm....I would take away something else from that.....after all Iran is attacked, it's elites destroyed, maybe even a system change started, BECAUSE they couldn't let their grubby little fingers away from them nukes!

It might serve as a warning for all wannabe's of this world....there is a limit to the fun!

@amiga500
Not a part of any movement. Just remember how Carter fvcked things up, and tired of hearing about these Iran morons who want the bomb.

@cms neuf
It has been mentioned as a plan.

Israel and or the US should just put an end to things. Hasn't 40 years been long enouogh for these extremists?

Who gave Dexter the bad acid??

Yes 40 years is too long

But without a plan this will be a disaster. "Flatten them" and "cut the head off the snake" is bar room talk

And right now Iranian civilians are being killed. We know from our Svetoid Serb friends that even if bombing is "well intentioned" it creates a generation of resentment

Comedy isn't it. Like when the Seppos tried to change all the top people in the Iraqi administration and every last new one was fired (and many shot) the day they left.


He didn't. The hostaeg release was deliberately delayed.


That is what they do.

Withou support from more developed societies it always ends in disaster and humiliation for them.

Who else?

I dunno but I doubt there is a fully functional opposition ready to take over by now....

Why him?

If he has a support bvase there within the country's structures. Not that he seems to.


There are enough Iranian dissidents with support at home who are in London right now.

Reminds me abit about the german years after WWI (if we had another king or something like that)....at least one person people could agree with and who gets to say whats happening instead of the chaotic sinking in a civil war or worse...

Does the Shah's son have any experience in managing difficult tasks ?

Will the Iranian people shrug and say "who else?" - I am a bit skeptical they will welcome him back just because he has a nice suit and expensive watch

I guess he is a figure head...more or less....not that the Shah comes back immediately, but the proof that the rule of the Mullahs is definitely over!

The problem is that the Pahlavi family were far from loved and have been exiles for nearly 50 years.

I have no idea about that....but in countries which failed revolutions the former monarchs are at least a chance....on the way to something better. That's why Stalin killed the russian ones....

But anyhow, the Iranians should decide, nobody else!

@cms neuf
Bar room talk is talking about making a deal with extremists. The only way to end the problem is to actually end the problem. Extremists never change their views unless it is to become more extreme.

The Shah's son voluteered to go back as part of a transition to a democratic government. The fact that citizens of Iran do not have the balls to simply end this regime says a lot about them as well.

Ending the problem will require at least 50,000 Americans troops. You ready for that cowboy? Light up a Marlboro.

Maybe thats not necessary! It's doubtful that Mullah regime would get enough supporters on the streets to fight for them....

....When Mehnaz*, a 24-year-old student activist in east Tehran, heard the news, she did not think of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Instead, she thought of her fellow students who were detained, shot and executed by Iranian security forces during the "woman, life, liberty" protests in 2022.

"After Mahsa [Amini]'s death, we tried to stand up. Teenagers were shot point blank, our compatriots were hanged. We could never get rid of the Islamic Republic on our own. Now, someone from outside is helping us," Mehnaz told the Guardian via text on Wednesday after a sleepless night of Israeli bombing.

First responders attend a bombed area covered in dust and rubble
'You worry what's going to come next': Iranians brace themselves as war looms

The prospect of imminent US involvement in an Israeli bombing campaign, which is suggested to be in pursuit of regime change, has laid bare deep divides in Iran's population, even among the opposition. Many are deeply suspicious of the US's intentions in Iran, which has a bitter history of foreign adventurism gone awry. Others do not care who is the one to topple the government.

A large portion of Iran's population is bitterly opposed to the government, which has only grown more repressive as the country slips deeper into economic crisis. Just two weeks ago, much of Iran was paralysed by a nationwide strike in protest at the dismal economic situation.

To some of the opposition, anything that could topple the Iranian government is welcome, whether it comes from street protests or US bunker busters.

Mehnaz said: "Yes, we'll probably have massive destruction in Tehran and other cities, but this regime will fall - and then we can rebuild everything again."....

theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/18/iranian-opposition-supporters-grapple-with-us-and-israeli-regime-change-plans