Militarily they are getting closer and closer to parity with the west.
Still it must be psychologically difficult for them to contemplate military action - given their complete absence of experience. Their last war against Vietnam ended in humiliation.
The extent of their recent experience is beating Indians with sticks in some Himalayan pass.
Russia and America both have dozens of conflicts in which they participated during the past century. This kind of institutional experience can't be substituted with anything else.
Simply - we have tens of thousands of planners and operators that have years of experience in commanding troops from Chechnya, to Georgia, to Syria, to Ukraine. Ditto for America. China has zero. They can only read books and study our experience.
They have to start slow, and maybe in conjunction with others - before going for the Big Kahuna of Taiwan.