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Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so.

Bobko 20 | 1,032
21 Aug 2022 #61
Now you are shooting a really big gun. Tsar- pushka

Maybe you are confusing me with someone. If you read through past posts in other threads, you will see that I do actually have a sinister motive, and that is that Poles will become closer to understanding Russians through housing so many ethnic Russian or Russian-speaking refugees in their homes. I don't hate my own people, and if some of them choose to go to Poland to hide from the war instead of Russia, why should I wish them misery?

I am intelligent enough to understand that the vast, vast majority of refugees have nothing to do with the origins of the war. Also, the less women and children there are in Ukraine, the easier it is for us to do the job.

Again, I am grateful to Poland. Furthermore, I don't think refugees have a big impact on the economic difficulties of Poland currently (compared to, for example, energy issues related to gas and coal). Perhaps refugees are number 10 on list of reasons for economic trouble. I can't exploit, what I don't believe in.

If Poland exhibited a two-faced attitude towards the war by supplying weapons but not accepting refugees - you would see a lot more toxic sh!t flowing out of this Russian
pawian 204 | 21,118
21 Aug 2022 #62
the easier it is for us to do the job.

Yes, nasty RuSSist Mongol job. tfu!

ethnic Russian or Russian-speaking refugees

Stop lying. They aren`t RuSSian but Ukrainian and most of them are giving up RuSSian coz they refuse to speak the language of uncivilised Mongols.

I don't think refugees have a big impact on the economic difficulties of Poland

Yes, but you were trying to imply it indirectly. Why did you bring up that subject at all - less tourism in Poland because of the war? It is one of the guidelines that Kremlin troll factory headquarters are sending to all RuSSist propagandists.
Bobko 20 | 1,032
21 Aug 2022 #63
They aren`t RuSSian but Ukrainian

I didn't even mean this in my typical sense of "Ukrainians don't exist". I meant that there are many ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers amongst the flow of refugees. The majority are Ukrainian, yes.

Why did you bring up that subject at all

I was following up on PAK's post. I said so. I even explained how the security anxieties and refugee anxieties were both surprising to me, because I imagined a different mechanism for the tourism drop.

less tourism in Poland because of the war? It is one of the guidelines that Kremlin troll factory headquarters

It's a fact, and I don't think CNN is a Russian propaganda outlet. If anything, it's a propaganda outlet for your camp.
PolAmKrakow 2 | 1,910
21 Aug 2022 #64
The actual numbers are 60% decrease in tourism in Poland. One of my business is located in rynek, and the traffic patterns are way down over years past. My neighbor with hotel and restaurant is getting killed without bookings. While Krakow is still busy looking, and while inexpensive products, service and dining business are doing better, it is coming at the expense of the higher end business that usually thrives here. One of the best steak places in the city went under with no notice after 8 years, the manager cited 10% of revenue projections in April, May and June. Thats a staggering number.
Paulina 14 | 3,338
21 Aug 2022 #65
it's completely irrational to fear for one's safety in Poland, but that seems to be the calculus of potential tourists.

Yes, it looks like it is a concern for foreign tourists. The two international travellers I wrote about in another thread who were travelling around Poland for three months even decided to address those concerns in a separate video, because they were getting a lot of messages from people who were asking them whether Poland is safe now:

Of course, it's ridiculous. Women with kids and elderly people don't pose any danger to tourists. Even with such great numbers of refugees Poland is still a safer tourist destination than many other countries (even than some Western ones).

and be seen to be having fun in a place where they perceive there to be a lot of refugees.

This is a nice, but misguided notion. Refugees from Ukraine are sightseeing Poland too, they're visiting tourist attractions too. They've suddenly found themselves in a completely foreign country and they want to get to know it. And you can't think about war 24/7 or you'll go crazy (although they feel guilty about being safe, while others aren't). Refugees need to relax too and their kids need to have some fun. They also have to have a fairly "normal" life here - they're looking for work, their kids usually go to Polish schools and kindergartens.

Poles will become closer to understanding Russians through housing so many ethnic Russian or Russian-speaking refugees in their homes.

How, if even those Russian-speaking Ukrainians/refugees don't seem to understand you? And I'm guessing that ethnic Russians who are pro-Putin or pro-RuSSia in this war chose to flee to RuSSia. Why would they come to Poland?
Bobko 20 | 1,032
21 Aug 2022 #66
Thats a staggering number.

I know we don't like each other particularly much, but would appreciate if you answered some questions.

1) Are incoming Ukrainians helping to offset labor costs for hospitality businesses? The steak restaurant example you cited - was he keeping all of his pre-war staff on payroll despite seeing only 10% of expected business month in, month out?

2) How much is inflation affecting your recipe ingredient costs? Did you have to update your menu prices during this period? If so, how many times?

3) What's happening with rents for commercial RE? Top end, like Rynek, and lower end?

4) I understand your business is more reliant on foreigners, but have you seen any noticeable drop off of Poles dining out?

5) Do you expect inflation to slow down next year?

Why would they come to Poland?

I don't know - maybe because unless they are in the east near our humanitarian corridors, there is really no easy way for them to reach Russia. I guess the shortest route would be to travel to Poland, then fly to Istanbul, and from there to Russia. That involves money, which I expect is precious for them at the moment.
PolAmKrakow 2 | 1,910
21 Aug 2022 #67
1) Ukraine people for the most part are not helping to offset labor. I have seen very few working in any business other than Zabka a chain of convenience stores. The steak place had predominantly Polish staff that had been kept on through two years of pandemic. However in Krakow specifically, landlords with commercial real estate are now trying to gouge business owners or those looking to start up in order to recoup their losses from the pandemic. This strategy being driven by real estate agents is not working. I recently looked at another opportunity and laughed in the agents face when presented terms.

2) I bought an existing restaurant to diversify my portfolio. Nothing has had to change and though costs are up roughly 10% across the board on COGS, there is enough margin in food to not pass it along to the customer. Some restaurants are trying to take advantage of rising costs and raising their costs even higher than inflation, those are now suffering for their actions.

3.) As I said, rents are crazy if a realtor is involved. Private commercial rentals are realistic because the owners know that getting a lower amount is better than getting nothing. That said, I could take over 70 restaurants in Krakow right now if I wanted. It is a buyers, or renters market if you know what you are doing.

4.) This particular business is really reliant on Poles. The expat community is really the gravy of the business, and that has grown simply because having a real American as an owner helped get more expats in the door with a few menu changes.

5.) Inflation slowing? I would expect in the next 6 to 9 months inflation should slow, but the next 4 months or so will be difficult. Poland, with mental midgets running the country and the bank of Poland will struggle to come out of what I see as a recession. Bad economic policy before, during and after COVID coupled with the war and excessive spending will produce very difficult times for Poles this winter.

I limited my comments to Poland, I have different views on the US and still own business's there in different segments.

My comments regardless of like or dislike will always be honest. It is not a matter of like or dislike really. It is simply a matter of belief systems, ours are very different and directly opposed to each other.
Bobko 20 | 1,032
21 Aug 2022 #68
10% across the board on COGS, there is enough margin in food to not pass it along to the customer


I'm assuming that a typical restaurant's gross margin is ~70%. Also, from past cases brought to me, know that in general full service restaurants end up at somewhere below 10% in terms of the net margin after all is said and done (a little higher for fast food, maybe 15-20%). If my 10% assumption is correct, and we both know that inflation in Poland is already running @ with 15% - I also would have been increasing prices. Probably like the guys you mentioned that are increasing prices beyond the rate of inflation. But I suppose that's why I'm not in the restaurant business and you are.

I believe you, that they are being punished for the overly aggressive price hike by patrons, but do you think they are actually net losers? Perhaps it's more of a wash - dollar sales up, volumes down, but overall they're doing just about as good as they were in the past?

Thanks for your reply.
PolAmKrakow 2 | 1,910
21 Aug 2022 #69
My place runs at just over 40% net, because we buy in large volume, have a great lease, limited labor costs, and no gas used in any preparations. Most players in Krakow run at about 20%. Unfortunately they are now pricing themselves out of business. We went to a place we like on the square last week and the cost of a rack of ribs was up over 40% from our last visit, conversely there was no shortage of available tables when in the past there was always a wait. Word is now that he will close at the end of this month. We bought our place because costs were so low and it only needed menu tweaking. We knew fine dining was dead here for at least another year.

Krakow relies on tourism and western money in particular. While Poles do come here, not many do, and not many are spending big money when they do come. Its really sad to see how many places are going under even with plenty of foot traffic. The market has changed here, and if you were not ready for reduced volume along with reduced budgets then you are in big trouble.
Cargo pants 3 | 1,447
21 Aug 2022 #70
at just over 40% net

Yes,when I was in that business here,it was almost 30/35% net depending what you serve most,and mine was a sports bar with limited menu.

Poles have gone bonkers in Warsaw at least asking 20 to 30 K per sq m with returns not more then 7/8% and bank charges over 10%,I wonder how many cash buyers are there in just cpl weeks before an agent tried to sell me a property for 27k a sq m lol and would get me a license for alcohol and restaurant by developer lol I asked her I will buy it if she gets me a permit to sell narcotics ,the only way my tenant could pay me in rent for my 8% return least.There hope is that Ukrainians will buy it at those prices(a big hope poles have now)

Zabka a chain of convenience stores

Zabka franchise is cheap so lots of Ukrainians are buying the franchise and making 8 to 20K pm,just like 7/11 franchise here.I had one just a fuc.king high priced managers job.

rents are crazy if a realtor is involved. Private commercial rentals are realistic

Yup,I have 5 restaurants as tenants and no one complains,even during covid,initially I gave them a break but then I started checking there water bills and the usage was same as before or more,buggers were making more money by delivering and charging extra for bags etc and saving on the waiting staff,lol when confronted all sheepishly paid up.But Krakow maybe different as it depends on tourists while Warsaw depends on office workers.

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