Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so.

Poland will take Greece's position.

No way that Poland will take Greece position.

I just read that Whirlpool, Credit Agricole , Samsungand some other Asian multinational companies will open new branches or plants in Poland.

When was the last time any international company opened a susbidiary or invested in Greece?

CIA 1967.

Of course Poland will be hit badly and it's just a matter of WHEN (not IF). If the government keeps this level of spending, join the euro (which is controlled by the ECB, not the NBP), or hide the debt, our economy will just keep falling more and faster like a ball on a slippery slope. Regarding the debt: I'd like to remind that stated 800 billion Z£ isn't the actual debt, because it doesn't cover ZUS for example (Social Insurance System, which debt is aprox 4 times higher).

Also, we won't be able to sustain economy growth because of the demography. Right now we have 2 generations of Poles (quite a number) working. Very soon (about 5 years from now, and so on, according to prof Krzysztof Rybiński) one of these waves will start to retire. ZUS won't be able to handle this situation, because there won't be enough workforce. And when the 2nd generation will start to retire, it'll be all over. If you don't belive - look at the charts/numbers/facts. And remember that we have a fertility rate of 1,2-1,3 which is almost 1 point below the bare minimum required to sustain a population.

The only question is - will Poland be able to sustain its culture and whether our people will be able to wake up.

Cheers :)

Merged: Perhaps Poland is not doing to badly as people think.

Recent eurostats figures released showing cities in europe (I do not undrstand why they include Turkey, perhaps they have already been secretly accepted for membership) which have the most poverty does not include anywhere in Poland in the top 20. Suprised by the amount of German, Belgium entries.

Mybe the grass is not always greener.

businessinsider.com/europe-poverty-2011-12

I posted this a couple of weeks ago and it was ignored.

blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2011/11/30/polish-economy-expands-at-impressive-rate

Poland's economy grew a surprisingly robust 4.2% on the year in the third quarter, boosted by rising fixed investment and a weak currency that makes the country's exports more competitive.

The growth rate was "impressive given that it came against a backdrop of escalating troubles in the euro zone," said Neil Shearing, an economist at research firm Capital Economics.

It seems funny that JP Morgan have predicted a lower growth rate for the next year, but looking back at previous estimates they have been wrong most of the time.

I'm not suprised that your post was ignored. You are involved in property and you do not agree with the doom-mongers so you and your posts giving any positive news will be unwelcome.

Poland is still doing extremely well, unfortunately the rest of Europe is going to hell.

Isn't that obvious?

BTW, Poland may surpass Spains per capita GDP in 6 years on current trends.

well at least two of us know what is actually happening---funny that we are foreigners.

A charming but pointless article. "Do you THINK there's a poverty problem" does not mean there IS a poverty problem.

Poland will continue to do well whilst the large corporations continue move operations into Poland and exploit the cheap labour market.

In fact even the smaller outfits are doing it.

For example Twinings (SCUMBAGS) who moved operations to Poland and China quoting losses in profits. When in actual fact they had made £65 million in profit. They even had the audacity to ask for EU funding to relocate!!!!!

As soon as the large corporations see a chance to up sticks and move to exploit another cheap labour market they will and Poland will left fighting it out with the rest.

mods, please run this into all the other threads about how "no really....poland is doing good now!"

The definition of poverty is to be below a certain %age of an countries average earnings.

So matter how rich or poor a country is there will always be some who are relatively poor. They don't make that clear in these sorts of surveys.

From the Financial Times:

The region's largest economy, Poland, surprised analysts by contracting in the second quarter, falling by 2.3 per cent, according to preliminary data from its statistics office.

"We see it as a first step into recession," said Katarzyna Rzentarzewska, chief analyst for central and eastern Europe at Erste Group. "The economic growth in Poland is a massive surprise to the downside . . . [it] wiped out expansion from the beginning of the year."

Surprise to some... logical to others. Still, this is quite the swing, from rather strong growth in the last two quarters of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, to a full blown recession in Q2. Even I would not have expected such a rapid pace of deceleration. Remember this post, since it may mark the point when Poland's rapid economic growth hit a wall.

Consumer confidence is at its lowest levels since the first weeks of the pandemic. Remember - this is when we all sat and home for days on end, and waited for death to come - that's how jolly Polish consumers are feeling at the moment.

Inflation is at a 25-year record high of 15.6%.

The Central Bank, in its efforts to rein in inflation, has raised the key interest rate to 6.5%. This is up from pretty much zero at the end of last year. This will absolutely hammer businesses reliant on raising debt, and people planning to buy a house or car. Despite this, the CB is warning that further rate hikes may be necessary, since inflation is still not responding and continuing to grow.

The prognosis for the rest of the year and the first half of next year is deepening pain. There is now almost a 100% probability of the Polish economy contracting year-on-year.

Let's look at what is happening in Hungary, who's government was not so keen on virtue signaling on the subject of energy sanctions. Hungary's annual growth slowed from 8 per cent in the first quarter to 6.5 per cent, while quarterly growth halved to 1 per cent in the three months to June, the statistics office said. Remember - Hungary has still not received a single Euro of help from the EU post-pandemic recovery fund, but is expected to come to an eventual agreement with Brussels. If this money comes, Hungarian economic growth will likely pick up substantially. Bottom line: Poland is entering a recession, and Hungary is growing at rates that would still be the envy of most any country in the world.

In other news - the IMF keeps revising its forecast for how much the Russian economy will contract this year. From its initial estimate of -15% in March, it has now revised it down (in several steps) to just -6%, while the Russian Central Bank is forecasting -4%. It will be very funny if Poland's recession ends up being deeper than Russia's this year, which has thousands of sanctions applied against it.

According to Eurostat, Poland is the EU's worst performing economy this quarter. Somebody should tell Adam Glapiński that he should start focusing more on the economy and less on Tusk's plan to overthrow the PiS government.

Link: ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14675418/2-17082022-AP-EN.pdf/e2a24cfe-ee79-d042-0a17-be6a117fba1a?t=1660721345061

Look at page 3 👆

This is only the effect of the war in Ukraine and the result of one quarter. The Polish economy is healthy and the coming quarters will be better. The russian economy was already sick before the war and will not recover because of the war in Ukraine. Let's wait for long term effects.

@Alien

The practical definition of a recession is two back-to-back quarters of GDP declines. So there isn't a recession, yet, but if Q3 produces another decline we will be in official recession territory.

Through the reports I've read, there is a near consensus amongst analysts that Q3 will be even worse than Q2.

Good news is that recessions typically have a depressing effect on inflation, through lower demand and lower economic activity. Price growth should slowly cool down as the economy moves through a recession. However, there are examples of anomalous situations when you have both a recession and persistent high inflation. This does monstrous damage to economies. We will have to wait and see what happens in Poland's case.

I hope the war will end and the economy will recover. Inflation will go down for sure then.

A lot depends on getting the National Recovery Funds from the EU and on whether the PiS government finally realises that printing empty money is not necessarily a good move. *rolls eyes*

Whatever happens, Poles are a resilient nation and we will survive whatever is thrown at us. I would be worried if we were alone with all that, but as a part of the EU and NATO we should eventually recover from any possible crisis.

But the winner, with a 6 percent fall in GDP and more to come is er....Russia

We don't need or want the oil or gas from murderers and rapist thieves. We will be dine and recover quicker than Hungary - bigger internal market, more liquid currency and tasty Norwegian gas

Polish tourism is down 60% this year. Thats the number after the covid years of decreased tourism. My neighbor who owns a hotel and restaurant, is averaging less than 30% occupancy all summer when she is usually sold out, restaurant reservations down nearly 80%. Mind you that is for upscale hotel and fine dining, but that is the mark in Krakow Rynek. Others I know on the same street one of my business's located are down at least 50%.

Recovery money, if it ever comes will not do much good.

Nope. Slavic world won`t have deep recession.

Recession is coming.

My local supermarket rations sugar and often doesn't have any at all. This, and rampant price rises/price gouging, is a very bad sign.

my friend ran a backpacker hostel in krakow rynek back in 2008. (well her parents owned that sweet piece of real estate, i never asked how?, so of course she was a krakow hiptster) time to buy in the dip?

Impossible.


Did this info already reach European media?? Amasing. Yes, it is true - Glapinski is a PiS nominee who plays with his bank like a kid.

Mhmm. Two days ago, already: politico.eu/article/poland-central-bank-adam-glapinski-germany-design-poland-territory/

Here's a quote for people that want a sense of the article, or have not read the original interview in Gazeta Polska:

"Poland is heading toward a recession, its currency is losing value and inflation is among the highest in the EU, but the head of the country's central bank has other concerns.

The danger for Poland lurks in Berlin and Brussels, Adam Glapiński warned in an interview with the right-wing Gazeta Polska published Wednesday."

This fellow sounds a lot like Turkey's central bank head, who does whatever that madman Erdogan orders him to do. No central bank independence whatsoever in Turkey, and it seems that in Poland's case it's the same - where Adam Glapiński is a political hack in the pocket of PiS leadership and not a neutral technocrat (as should be in any normal place).

There (in Turkey) they are promoting an extremely unorthodox monetary policy, according to which higher interest rates spur higher inflation (any student of economics know this is the opposite of how it works). Defying the laws of economics has a price: Turkey has a forecasted inflation rate of 80% for this year, and the lira is now at 18 to a $ (it was at 2 in 2014). So if Poles ever feel bad about the economic situation, they can make themselves feel better by reminding themselves that at least it's never going to be as bad as in Turkey.

Not sure if this is what you meant, but I believe it's clear that it is not a post-Covid slump that is affecting tourism to Poland. What is happening is a direct result of the war in Ukraine, and it is not unique to Poland - with all of Eastern Europe being affected. Of course, it's completely irrational to fear for one's safety in Poland, but that seems to be the calculus of potential tourists.

A good CNN article with lots of numbers and some good quotable pieces:

cnn.com/travel/article/ukraine-invasion-tourism-eastern-europe/index.html

According to the article, it's not just a question of safety, but also a fear that it's morally wrong to have fun while refugees are flowing in. Quote:

"People are saying they don't want to go somewhere and be seen to be having fun in a place where they perceive there to be a lot of refugees.

"Someone lost their home and you're there in matching t-shirts, drinking beer -- there's a juxtaposition that doesn't sit right."

My initial personal assumption regarding why tourist numbers were depressed, was that it was because of a reduction in disposable income due to higher energy bills, making many people postpone travel until better times. But reading this article I realized I was wrong, and it's really war-based concerns that are driving the decline. The most important indicator arguing against my POV, is that many people actually CANCELLED their trips (so they were already paid for). Quote:

At the end of March, Poland's deputy minister for sport and tourism, Andrzej Gut-Mostowy, told media that cancelations from foreign visitors were up between 30% and 40%.

In January, Jacek Legendziewicz was hoping 2022 would be the year his Krakow-based hospitality company, Jordan Group, recovered from the pandemic. But then came the invasion -- and they lost 80% of group bookings in three days.

Those numbers are crazy. I sympathize with the feeling that this is not fair, since the war is happening in another country and Poland is absolutely safe. People are idiots.

It is sad but true. That guy is primarily blamed for his incompetence.


hahaha Cut down on tall tales like that. You are cleverly trying to influence Poles against Ukrainian refugees who you indirectly blame for causing a decrease in tourist traffic in Poland.

I just read an article about RuSSist propaganda which is doing their best exploiting refugee crisis to cause ferment and tensions between Poles and Ukrainians. You got your guidelines from the HD.

I really am not. I said - people are idiots. If they think it is bad to be having fun around refugees (first, how would a hypothetical Englishman even tell Poles and Ukrainians apart, in order to realize he is mingling amongst refugees?), then why do they also not think that by cancelling their plans they are hurting both Poles and refugees?

I'm not Velund, and I don't dislike Poles. You actually helped me in this regard. I can respect your approach that you hate so-called RuSSists but can at the same time show solidarity with normal Russians (like in the thread about people drowning). I don't agree with you, but I understand it's no different than me liking Ukrainians in general and at the same time hating Banderists.

I don't live in Poland, but I am very curious about it. I can show the Russian perspective in the Ukraine War thread, and I can help with Polish economics - so that is what I do. Sometimes I can help on genealogical questions, if it is relevant to Russia or Ukraine. I wish I could participate in other threads, like the photo riddle threads - but again I do not live in Poland.


Nothing I wrote above is "exploiting refugees". I wrote about coal prices, recession fears, central bank incompetence, and finally the tourism drop (and said people are idiots for their misplaced anxiety about refugees), but only in response to PAK's interesting post. You will not believe me, but I am grateful to Poland for accepting the refugees in such numbers and with such warmth.

Yes, as a smokescreen. :):):)


hahahaha Now you are shooting a really big gun. Tsar- pushka. hahahaha


RuSSian, you mean. Russian perspective is shown by others, e.g, RussianagainstPutin