Imagine it's Jan 2022. What would you do if you were him?
I would certainly not invade Ukraine.
If you polled the financial community in Moscow in 2022 in January - probably 90% would say Putin is not gonna invade Ukraine because it is a crazy thing to do.
If you interviewed subject matter specialists in New York, whose job it is to watch Russia - they would also all say in unison - "this is a nothing burger".
Everybody thought he was playing. Bluffing. Bargaining for a better position.
In the event, it turned out Putin really is completely crazy.
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Crazy in the frame of reference of any normal person.
He did something - which was so out of this world - that it simply left us all shocked.
Over time, everyone has gotten on the same page as him, and now we support him - but he really did do something completely unexpected.
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When Putin talks about himself, he often disagrees that he has a "distorted sense of risk".
But that is precisely what was written about Putin in dossier by his former employers (we now have this thanks to archives).
Putin says that he has an adequate sense of danger, but that is clearly not the case from observing his actions. (Source: tass.ru/obschestvo/23848209).
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He has a lowered sense of risk. He's got a combative personality style (as he says, "formed in the streets of St. Petersburg while fighting bullies). He has a feeling that he can ask great things from people, and that they owe him them (interesting also).
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Back to your question - I would probably fold under Biden's and the EU's pressure - and back off.
I would feel it is too much responsibility to take - to plunge Russia into a war against these two great powers.
But Putin has balls, and a completely broken compass in terms of danger.
Maybe what he did was right in the end, maybe it wasn't.
That's why he is the president of Russia - and I am a nobody.