Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24

So far, everyone was waiting in suspense to see what the president of America would say... now they are waiting in suspense when he will finally stop talking? 🤷

America quite literally cannot go bankrupt.

You can. Poland can. France can. Germany can.

America can't. Neither can Japan (200% of GDP in debt). Not Switzerland either.

I think you know why France and Germany can go bankrupt - because they do not control their own currency. These two borrow in Euros, but only the ECB can print more Euros - not France or Germany. So... in theory, if the ECB refuses to support them, then France and Germany can go bankrupt.

But why can Poland go bankrupt? Doesn't it have the Zloty? Hmmm...

First problem: the zloty is not a global reserve currency. There is practically no demand for it, and anyone that wants to pay Poland for something pays in Euro.

Second problem: a huge chunk of Polish debt is denominated in foreign currency, because - surprise surprise - not very many people want to own zloty bonds.

This means that Polish debt in dollars, euros, and Swiss francs cannot be paid simply by printing more zlotys.

If the zloty falls sharply, the real burden of servicing euro/dollar debts explodes, and this is what causes emerging-market sovereign defaults. Look at Argentina and Turkey to understand why these things can be problematic.

America and Japan meanwhile can always create more money to meet their obligations (the cost is inflation/devaluation, not bankruptcy). This is because they owe people only in dollars and yen.

Poland should join the Eurozone as soon as possible.

It doesn't fix the problem.

One would think that Poles would be experts at understanding this kind of thing, after their wonderful adventures with Swiss Franc denominated mortgages (a big "haha" moment for investment professionals around the world).

It's not so much who gets the interest money.

The drama is that after the interest money is paid out - 1T dollars a year - and another 1T wasted on DoD, there is not enough to run the country on.

That missing part has to "borrowed" and added to the debt ...now at 37T ... a case of a fiscal avalanche...

Under Biden, we were running a deficit of 1 trillion every 3 months. This is madness...

The US is replicating the USSR and their internal rot. It didn't end well, Thelma, did it...

I gather a lot depends on the exchange rate at time of entry being right.

Of course it doesn't harm the EU to have extra currencies outside their central bank, especially now they've lost a major one.

I can see PLN becoming a reserve currency if PL plays its cards right.

Does it really work any better now than when it imploded the economies of Southern Europe?

Has it formally adopted transfers yet? Those are about the only possible way of sort of making it work...

Good one.

I would rather worry that nobody wants sterling or gilts anymore.

Best candidates for new (additional) reserve currencies are the Yuan and the Rupee.

To compete with them, Poland needs to add a billion people, and probably... acquire some nukes.

Why nukes? Because a reserve currency also reflects power projection - foreign states must believe that the issuer can defend the system underpinning it.

This is why sterling ruled the world during the Pax Britannica, and the dollar rules now in the Pax Americana.

What about the delivery system?

DHL has a weight limit.

Sterling is extremely stable and I've just bought a pile of gilts.

It's a stable economy with a growing population, a democratic society immune to sudden change and there is huge inward investment, not only in money markets.


Bargepoles.

India is a prime candidate for "premature deindustrialisation".

All this is off topic though.

It's much more interesting to talk about the next round of sanctions.

...and dead Ukrainians...Oh how awful...The US has to do something...

Poland should run away from Euro as from radioactive plague infected transsexual serial killer.


Read (or look at Rutube) Mikhail Khazin interviews from last couple of months, and you probably will understand why Trump goes so mad about talf trillion Euros worth currency recently printed by ECB and Bank of England (hint: at expence of US taxpayers and, especially, their pension savings).

All fairy tales ends sometime. This one, that told about stable EUR and UKP, comes to an end too...

Why? I'm very happy with Euro. It kicked Dollar out of Europe.

Exactly. Poland should never give up their currency. It is a symbol of what this country is, it represents history on every note.

The euro was responsible for wide-spread tax evasion, political corruption and falsification of official data in that part of the world? The only thing the ECB did wrong was to not understand that they were being lied to.

It represents 30 years of history on every note. That zloty in its current form is only six years older than the euro.

As I have said a few times before the euro is already a de facto currency in Poland if you want to do or build anything big.

At the moment, the euro is one of the most stable currencies in the world. It's only a failure in the eyes of people who always wanted it to be a failure, and seem to resent the fact that it has stuck around.

Do you remember the old zloty? Was a pain in the arse to go shopping with but made for excellent poker games.

I knew they were being lied to.... does that make me smarter than the ECB? Why aren't I in charge of it then?

It doesn't. EUR and GBP? Both are stable currencies. How's your rouble?


Great fun but strangely depressing and a bit confusing.

Fear of the Euro is like fear of the dentist. However, once you decide to go to the dentist, things get better. 😷😬

cnbc.com/2025/06/06/why-russian-ruble-is-the-worlds-best-performing-currency-this-year.html

Key Points

The Russian ruble has staged a stunning rally in 2025, emerging as the world's top-performing currency so far this year.
According to the Bank of America, it has been the best-performing currency since the start of the year.

What comedy. You're racked with inflation and there are even petrol shortages.

Euro was great for Germany... but for lots of other countries it was a disaster. Those countries share part of the blame for that but also poor design of the Euro was a major factor.

Have transfers been made official or are is their presence being officially denied?

You are insane.
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He is German by choice and has no clue about Poland.
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The ruble has done well - (in theory at least as you cannot buy it or use it outside North Nigeria) because some people believed that an end to the war was possible especially when Zelensky agree to sign Golden Cow's ceasefire. That was 145 days ago.

Since August 7th it is on a downward path as it is obvious that Putler has zero interest in peace.

Meanwhile this makes me want to puke - Witkoff brown-nosing Golden Cow and saying he is the best candidate for peace since the Nobel prize was invented. I now genuinely think the US will try and stop Europe buying Norwegian oil or say he will kick them out of NATO if they don't give him this prize.

youtube.com/watch?v=tLQbpCGqizM

Imagine behaving like that in any other walk of life - at school or at work - demanding that you are given a prize. Proper North Korean stuff.

And speaking of the starving elite North Koreans even Kim showing he despises Putler - he has turned up for many soldiers funerals, whereas Outler has not and will not meet ant relatives of the glorious dead farm boys.

Russia's summer offensive in Ukraine ends in failure

ukrainianworldcongress.org/bild-analyst-russias-summer-offensive-in-ukraine-ends-in-failure/

The recent Ukrainian counter-attacks mark the end of the Russian summer offensive, which failed to achieve its' strategic objectives to a) achieve a strategic breakthrough somewhere along the front or failing that b) at least take Pokrovsk. The Russian army is still stuck well before the town.

All the Russians gained are a few km and some tiny villages at (even by Russian standards) the cost of high Russian casualties. Even though the USA has drastically reduced its' support for Ukraine, the Ukrainian army is nevertheless capable of withstanding the Russian assault. Here is to hoping that once Trump cuts all support, the Europeans will be able to fully support the Ukrainians in their fight.

He has no chance and the outsanding (and also the ones confirmed in a civil court) rape allegations rule him out. That and his veiled threats to invade Danish territory.


He phoned a Norwegian politician (who was walking in the street at the time) threatening tariffs if he didn't get it.

The prize however is not in the gift of their govenment and in any case Norwegians are as tough as nails and not easily pushed around.


They've done superbly and r*SSia is spectacularly failing in their aims.

Some good news. The UK government have extended the training project for the Ukrainian Army for at least another year. This is beneficial to both parties.

"The extension of Operation INTERFLEX to at least the end of 2026 was announced by the Defence Secretary amid Ukrainian celebrations today, marking 34 years since declaring independence from the Soviet Union.

More than 50,000 Ukrainian recruits have been trained on British soil so far, with the UK leading 13 other nations providing support to the INTERFLEX programme as one of the biggest schemes of its kind in the world.

The UK is also adapting INTERFLEX training to best suit Ukraine's evolving military requirements, with a gradual shift from prioritising shorter courses centred on basic combat skills training, to a greater focus on leadership and instructor training.".
gov.uk/government/news/british-training-of-ukrainian-troops-extended-through-2026-as-uk-marks-ukrainian-independence-day

An army that is demoralized, badly equipped and drunk is never going to make progress. Most are only there for signing on bonus that their dipsomaniac parents drank months ago or spent on some crappy Vietnamese telly.

There will be a full scale mutiny soon

To be honest Europe doesn't need to increase the amount of support they give the Ukrainians. All they need to do is to give Ukraine access to frozen Russian funds held in European banks and let Ukraine buy the weapons it needs.


The problem is that an army that is demoralized, badly equipped and drunk is never going to have an effective mutiny. Especially not when the field commanders know that their superiors won't care at all about a few dozen mutineers being shelled as soon as they mutiny.

It costs him nothing to say it, and scores a lot of points with Trump.


That would lead to a major shift in Norway. So far the only ones advocating against an alliance with the U.S.A in Norway is the radical left. All major parties support NATO and strong alliance with the U.S.A. It's a non-negotiable, and taboo to touch. If Trump starts threatening the Norwegian oil it will bite himself cause it's solely reliant on the U.S Dollar. If it switches to EURO instead it will hurt him badly and all American experts and people in the administration can only see this as an act of betrayal. Going against U.S interests cause of a peace prize...