Russia has built in effect a second parallel army, to the one in Ukraine (...) Now it is probably at the 200K level, larger than the initial Ukrainian invasion force.
I will start worrying (slightly) when it's 2 million. If 200k moves against Poland, it will be inhaled through our left nostril and snorted out through the right one. It is not the "parallel army" that is saving the putinist regime at moment, Bobi, but the off chance that some of their nukes might actually still be usable. Only that. Nothing else.
We, Poles, are a millenium old nation. We watch, we digest, we draw conclusions. We like to think that we grew wiser from our painful experiences.
Russian tank fleet has been shredded, their air fleet has taken a mauling, most of their artillery barrels have been worn out (this means rounds are landing in say a 200-meter radius, not 50 meter radius), Russian logistics is massively reliant on rail transport (they simply don't have enough trucks and tank haulers to move their army) which brings problems that the invasion of Poland would only immensely magnify. But you know all that. To cut the long story short, Russia is in no position to invade Poland (let's not be ridiculous and even mention NATO) at the moment.
Of course, once the Russians reduce their forces in Ukraine, and rebuild for a few years, then the risk to Poland increases again. But this time, unlike September 17th 1939, we will be well armed, ready and waiting for you. Also, we don't have to worry about the German, Czech and Slovak borders this time - we will not fight in encirclement like in 1939 and the length of borders to defend will be much shorter. So, there's a dilemma for putinists - they are not ready to attack Poland yet, but the longer they wait, the better prepared we will be. Apart from all that, if they wait too long we will not only be better prepared but we will have our own nuclear weapons.