Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 20

@Ironside
After 9/11 Article 5 was enacted by the US. Not everyone responded with manpower. Everyone "supported" the US effort, and provided some sort of assistance. This directly from the NATO website;

The principle of providing assistance
With the invocation of Article 5, Allies can provide any form of assistance they deem necessary to respond to a situation. This is an individual obligation on each Ally and each Ally is responsible for determining what it deems necessary in the particular circumstances.

This assistance is taken forward in concert with other Allies. It is not necessarily military and depends on the material resources of each country. It is therefore left to the judgment of each individual member country to determine how it will contribute. Each country will consult with the other members, bearing in mind that the ultimate aim is to "to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area".

At the drafting of Article 5 in the late 1940s, there was consensus on the principle of mutual assistance, but fundamental disagreement on the modalities of implementing this commitment. The European participants wanted to ensure that the United States would automatically come to their assistance should one of the signatories come under attack; the United States did not want to make such a pledge and obtained that this be reflected in the wording of Article 5.

I don't know what happens inside Putin's cranium.

But I'd like to think he's a somewhat rational person, or at least that once he was very rational. As he gets older he becomes kookier and kookier.

Old Putin listened carefully to the liberals on his team - like Nabiullina (Central Bank head), Gref (Minister of Ecomonic Development, then CEO of Sberbank), and Kudrin (Minister of Finance, now think tank).

Now "war"-Putin listens only to his old buddies from the security services, like Patrushev and Naryshkin. The job of liberals is to sit quietly, and make sure the economy keeps humming along.

This - even though:

1) The security services lied to Putin about every aspect of the preparation of this operation. They led us into a potential disaster, while stealing billions along the way.

2) The economic bloc, through its professional management of the economy, is what saved Russia and allowed it to win the war in the end.

So - the people that were opposed to the war - ultimately played a crucial role in winning it. In 2022, when all the sanctions were being rolled out - only the very optimistic predicted anything but a total collapse of the economy. The leaders of veteran sanction countries like Iran and North Korea were certainly in awe of what Russian economic managers pulled off. Russia actually managed to grow its economy in each year, while reorienting trade flows from West to East. No small feat.

The liberal economic bloc found the billions of dollars, that Putin needed to pay people exorbitant sign on bonuses - allowing him to avoid a politically damaging mobilization.

It marshaled hundreds of billions more in loans for defense enterprises and towards the retooling of idle plants for war materiel production.

All while being fully convinced that this war was a mistake, and a huge drag on Russia's potential. The jolly jingoists meanwhile take responsibility for nothing, while claiming all the wins.

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With that long preamble out of the way - I think invading Poland is stupid because it would be an economic disaster.

If you want Poland, Vladimir Vladimirovich - simply secure removal of sanctions, and unleash Russian business. Before the war - Gref and his Sberbank were very close to becoming the largest bank in Europe. He was busy buying banks in Turkey, in Austria, in Germany, etc. All of this work went to waste with the cutting of economic ties.

Putin can have what he wants, losing much less blood, and earning much more money and soft influence in the process.

Poland has no meaningful reserves of natural resources. Their population speaks a different language and follows a different religion. Unlike Ukraine it is a member of NATO and the EU. This likely means that the Baltic Sea would be shut down for shipping in the event of a war - and that's pretty goddamn terrible for Russia.

Largest coal reserves in Europe, major deposits of copper, one of the world's largest silver producers, significant sulfur deposits, world's largest deposits of moral superiority, high quality amber deposits, extensive forests, fertile soil - we have it all. Gold, diamonds and oil we can buy for the money we earn with our hands, brains and balls, thank you.

But all in all, I agree that Poland is not worth the losses that we would inflict on any invader, so invading Poland is completely illogical. The problem is, Russia is not a logical entity and she does seem to bear a bit of a grudge, and her ruler thinks he's Peter the Great. Also, there's no way the war machine will be dismantled, reserves dispersed and industry back to peace-time production before Russia achieves a success (and 20% of former Ukrainian SSR is hardly a success).

Baltics will be invaded, Poland will honour her commitments, there will be a war. Remember who told you this first.

I said it first on 10 March. It seems you are copying and pasting from me. :):):)

Don't forget Russia has a lot too, and most of those places don't even have a paved road or a railway leading to them. A lot of those places are only reachable through the Arctic ports.

Build a railway into some disconnected Russian Oblast, or invade Poland? To me the answer is obvious.


This will be the grand fight in Russia as soon as this war is ended.

On one side - the military, intelligence, and defense industry communities. On the other - business, economic reformers, and liberal opposition (just remember that a Russian liberal would be considered too conservative even for the far right in the West). Putin in his usual role, will act as arbiter between the two camps.

One has coercion and fear as instruments, the other money and access. It will be an epic battle.

We have already been hostages of the war machine, and it should not be allowed to dominate again.

Fair play if you did. I must have missed it. So, there's two of us who aren't falling for all the maskirovka. This means that you are not blinded by your hate for Russia and I am not blinded by my love for her. :)


Exactly. They did without a railway for so long, they will suffer a bit longer - good thinking.

What???

Every Russia-hating azzhole here knows Putin's plans before he does. They already know that he wants to invade Europe and beyond.


Putin wants to invade Poland as I want to adopt a dozen of infected NY rats.

I mean it would be an apocalyptic disaster.

Even if America does not join, I am sure we would be fighting European forces directly in a war like that.

It would end in nukes, and decades of recovery for everyone involved.

I'm familiar with it. I do realize it's not automatic.
This is not what I'm talking about, it is about playing different scenarios.
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Thnak you for your interesting input.
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Geez, you are fired on your ideas.
Bobko didn't say that Russia will not attack Poland.
He said that he does not know and according to his opinion it would be irrational and not very profitable for Russia.
There is a better way - economical domination and infiltration.
Can't you read with understanding?
By the way - what innocent Italians? There are commies and have it coming.

Yes.

We could have this in Ukraine. We had this in Ukraine.

We had Ukraine in the palm of our hand, while at the same time not being responsible for paying its pensioners and state workers.

Every Ukrainian business of any size was owned by Russians. Ukrainians listened to Russian pop music on their radios, and watched Russian movies at the theater. They used Russian social media, and Russian search engines. Any ambitious Ukrainian understood that Moscow was a bigger goal than Kiev.

We were in the process of swallowing Ukraine. But then some people had to force the process along, and make everything overt. To me - it's incredibly foolish.

Nominal structures matter little - what matters is substance.

Russia, without war, without revolution - given a good long stretch for peaceful development - will naturally come to dominate Europe. The Second Law of Thermodynamics supports my thesis.

Ukraine I can grudgingly accept - because it is indeed so intrinsic to our idea of ourselves - but Poland to me would be an absolute unforced error. A mistake of generational proportions.

Well we are all looking forward to the benefits that Notth Nigerian domination of Europe can bring

Rattling crappy old trams
Exploding spacecraft
Rock hard bread
Cheating athletes
Awesome amateur ****
Gut rot home made alcohol
Gloomy novels
Chess
Thieving local bureaucrats
Annual parades of dud missiles on flat bed trucks

Will sure be better than our current decadent culture

Young Russians that have grown up during the past 30 years can and will surprise you :)

Forged in a process that none of their Western peers had to undergo, I think they are made of different stuff.

I think you could have much worse leaders than them.


Kania I missed this!

Yeeeeees... the book is f*cked up - but I thought you might enjoy it.

As you had said - it is extremely well written. Son of a b*tch Sorokin writes well. I think he got a Booker Prize for the book.

Regarding it being funny - that's the point. It's supposed to be funny.

Glad you are enjoying it.

In the last 30 years of peace including 25 years of Putler rule NN has produced

Nothing we want to buy
Nothing we want to listen to
Nothing we want to eat or drink
No film or TV we want to watch
No company we admire
No politician we admire
One decent footballer

Apart from tennis and chess the NNs have not made a dent in world culture

What would change this ?

Australia and Canada also produce only raw materials - but they are considered heavyweights due to their size.

Whatever they produce - Russia produces 5x. Remember that Australia is a literal continent.


Russia quite literally feeds a billion people. We are number one in the world in grain exports, and many other items.


"Masha and the Bear" are the most watched tv series by kids worldwide.

"Leviathan" won an Academy Award.


Vodka.

Regarding the rest... I know you admire Putin - if even secretly. Russia has tons of great companies - like Rosatom - which builds more nuclear reactors around the world than any other company.

Don't you see a pattern? Russia is doing extremely well with its slow long-term plan that would bring a lot of benefits if completed and ensure control Moscow craves.
However, Russian rulers are losing their patience or are looking for vain achievements and F it all up.
A war escalates and even if Russia wins there ar less benefits at a higher cost. If they stuck with the original plan, it could have been so much better.
The same with Ukraine, it was all well, then 2014 happened, and progress reversed at least for a couple of decades, and then Moscow goes for something bigger, risky and makes it even worse.
Seems Russian political pattern emerges here.
You know how - but you chose to screw it for yourself and others disrearding that knowlagde.
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It is a Polish invention.

I grew up myself in the 1990s, with a burning hatred in my heart for the West's abandonment, and extreme shame over what was happening in Chechnya where Islamic radicals were recording the decapitation of Russian 18 year old soldiers. The decapitations were broadcast on state television.

It felt like the country was barreling towards an endless black abyss.

So I know exactly how Putin came to power. I know exactly the emotions of the people. Whatever the West says about him rigging elections - it doesn't matter. He's popular, unlike any leader in more than half century.


Putin is himself a human being. He did not arrive to us from the sky.

He grew up in a family where his older sibling died from hunger. He grew up in a communal apartment. He's short of size. Despite being a high official in the government of St. Petersburg, he was forced to earn on the side as a cab driver. This guy knows a thing or two about humiliation.

We got who we got, and we project unto him as onto a canvas the whole palette of national feeling.

I might complain, but even I don't know if I'm right. Putin has proven many of his critics wrong, many times.

...other than kicking the US' balls with their "cosmos" firsts.

This reminds me why I adore the USSR - RIP...Thanks to the USSR, I was allowed to immigrate to the best place on Earth - the United States of America - under the "brain drain" policy.

So...Thank you, dear Soviets for liberating Poland in 1945 and me in 1967. I love you, my beloved Red Army, for not allowing Western warmongering scum to vietnam Poland.

BTW, I just created a new English verb. I want Nobel Prize in lit.


Iron, you are truly an amazing guy...Bravo!

Maiden was EU`s tragic mistake. Not that I feel sorry for EU.

Of course he didn't. He's too intelligent a guy to say that Russia will definitely not attack Poland. Firstly, he doesn't know that. Secondly, maskirovka is not about making strong unambiguous statements, it doesn't work this way. It's about subtle, intelligent persuasion. Thirdly, I wasn't being entirely serious but you lack the necessary sophistication to detect that. It's not your fault. I forgive you.

One way or another, apart from everything else, we have to act as if it was absolutely certain that Russia will invade Poland, and prepare accordingly.

In 1939 a lot of people were saying that Hitler didn't stand a chance, that we would be in Berlin in two weeks, that our allies would help us and invade Germany from the West. And what do we hear today? That Putin wouldn't stand a chance if he attacked NATO, that his drunk armies of big-eared alcoholics are no match for us and our allies who would, of course, help us (perhaps like they did in 1939).

We can hope and pray that this war never happens; but we have to be convinced that it will.


Oh, yes. Some of the dialogues in the book could well have been written on PF if Crow, and a couple of other guys here, were endowed with Sorokin's talent - uproariously funny. Like the scene with the pasquinade when His Majesty says to his pervert son-in-law "Not badly written, don't you think? And here my academicians go on and on about how we don't have any good poets!", and too many other lines to mention. Slavic humour at its best.


You're a devil. You knew how I would react to this book, how it would warm my heart and nourish my inner Slav. After a book like that "the soul revives, is purified, and desires the lofty" hahaha

Russia won`t attack Poland.

I know. 100%.

I said it here. Check if it counts as first
https://polishforums.com/news/poland-baltics-states-rely-main-87497/7/#msg2019576


BS. I only hate imperial Russia. While normal Russia will be OK when it emerges one day.

It counts, I concede.

Thank you, my friend. :):):)
That`s why we need to stick together.
But some forum beasts insist that we are divided. Sick creatures! And idiots, too.

We may have divided opinions on certain painful matters, but we both have Poland in our hearts and that's what counts in the end.

Getting ahead of yourself, champ. Slow down....

You are such a highly sophisticated man that all your provincial sophistication of the county level is wasted on a country boy like me. No doubt about it.
However, you would benefit if you learned not to display your narcissistic tendencies as well as your self-congratulatory mentality and change into a self-cultivation mode. ---------

Let me correct you here. We need to prepare for war and be ready to defend Poland even without support from allies.
It is a basic rule of statecraft.sic pacem para bellum
If such a basic fact is needed to be discovered anew, it is testament to the sad truth that our politicians for the most part are a waste.
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Thank you very much indeed for your friendly, even if not requested, advice and all the valuable remarks. I shall give them every necessary consideration.

As for important matters, yes - of course - Poland should be ready to defend herself without relying on external support. In my view, the peasant view (PSL, conservative wing), the salt of the Polish earth view, here's what needs to be done to achieve self-sufficiency in defensive matters:

- keep the professional army at least at current numbers with the best modern weapon systems possible,
- supplement the professionals with huge reserve force (see the point below),
- restore mandatory military service: 18 months for army, 2 years for navy, air force and certain specialized technical units,
- build proper territorial defense based on the Swiss model,
- integrate boy scout organisations into educational system*, starting from primary school,
- arm the society on a wider scale by facilitating access to fire arms,
- promote hunting, gun clubs, shooting sports,
- invest heavily in our own arms industry, while supplementing army needs with necessary outside purchases,
- redirect more ample budgetary means into population-growth policies, adjust tax laws, health and childcare services
in a way that encourages Polish women to have more children,
- acquire, at all cost, nuclear weapons.

When all of the above happens, we will be ready to talk on much more equal terms with both: our friends and allies, the Americans, and our dear Slavic brothers, the Russians. This shall result in a more fruitful trans-Atlantic cooperation as well as increasing the future prosperity of all Slavonic people.

* - I propose Korvinus, a world-class specialist on boy scouting, for the post of the country-wide coordinator of this project

Frappant!!!
Stay tuned so that you can learn the necessary sophistication if you still want to hang around the intellectual elites. .

Bobko gave the example of Rosatom as an admired North Nigerian company (no other examples were provided)

And this made me curious. Who would want a bunch of drunk and incompetent NNs building something as sensitive as a nuclear reactor? So I googled them

The answer is simple - people who have been bribed. Rosatoms customers include Hungary, North Korea and a load of Asian dictatorships. They are embroiled in several corruption scandals in Bangladesh and sanctions busting activity in other countries.

@Torq
Some good ideas there. Very similar to the Swiss approach.

The good news is that Russia, US and Ukraine are still talking. And this is where I think the EU, US and Ukraine fvcked up by closing off all communication for the last three years. You cannot end a war without talking at some point.