Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 20

@Bobko
Your take on Kursk may be whats happening, or what happened. It looks like Ukraine will have everyone out before the end of the week. And your take on Trumps obsession with Obama and the peace prize is dead on. I remember that dinner and you could see the moment when Trump decided to run for president.

Putin will get the no NATO for Ukraine commitment from the US, and that alone might be anough to keep the US in NATO which is what Europe wants. In order to get that though, he has to give the US something. It wont be the territory they have already taken. Maybe it is some kind of commitment on the Balkans? I think both Putin and Trump are looking for ways to remove any chance of a direct US/Russia conflict.

What happens if Vlad says no? This would upset Trump and he would retailiate in any way he could to hurt Vlad. I really think Trump would send incredible amounts of long range weapons to Ukraine. Trump cant solve the manpower problem of Ukraine, but he could easily solve the issue of long range strikes being limited inside of Russia. I dont believe for one second the the US has low numbers of long range missiles. Production has been ramped up for three years. Massive attacks on refineries would really hurt Russia and the ability to keep funding the war. Sanctions on China and India may **** them off, but neither can afford to lose the US market. Chinas economy would collapse without the US. India would survive a little better, but cutting off any Visas for both countries would cause internal problems. I remain hopeful that Putin will say enough is enough.

I've heard Putin has in Kursk already ordered the expellations...is that true?

I doubt the NNNs have made the advances they claim

And I know Putler is nowhere near Kursk and never has been

....so...just a bad rumour!

His supposed appearance in Kursk is just propaganda for the drunk citizenry of North Nigeria

The advances in Kursk - might be true but certainly cost a lot of NN and North Korean elite lives

But probably exaggerated

@Bratwurst Boy
Of course, because all the news reports and photographs are fakes. eye roll The far left Guardian report that Kursk is in final stage of removing Ukraine obviously done by some hacker.

Well....some german media seems to be taking over the reports of Putin-in-Kursk rather unchecked...so better to ask around!

The Guardian and BBC and TVP only refer to NN claims to have taken territory.

In Bakhmut and Advika they claimed victory many weeks before it happened.

I will only believe it when Putler is sat in front of Sudzha town hall being interviewed by TVN

It is centrist not "far left".


Even then, it's probably one of his doubles.

So..... you think he wants to trust russians? How has that ever gone for any country?


Which is why Ukraine has been attacking oil refineries for a while....

The problem that all the 'peace.... at any cost to Ukraine!' enthusiasts never address is what to do when russia violates the ceasefire.

There is a kind of psychic desperation among western politicians to trust russia and it always goes south because the entire russian government is built on deception.

russians are carnies at heart and westerners tend to be good-natured marks....

Ehhh...


The proper term is maskirovka.

As I already told you, children, Russia is building huge operational reserve, and they didn't start all this mess just to win 20% of former Ukrainian SSR. From their point of view it wouldn't make any sense to stop there.

So, regardless of what exactly happens in Ukraine (unless it's a total Russian defeat, which is highly unlikely), Russia will attack NATO (the Baltics first, but it will mean Poland too, because we will surely honour our alliance). They will do it, among other reasons, to test Article 5 and to cause further division in NATO. Thanks to their nuclear weapons they will be able to control the escalation ladder and will hope to extend their sphere of influence because, children, this is precisely why they started this war.

I shall repeat again for the benefit of the slightly retarded (or those who don't know Russians very well): Russia WILL attack NATO.

Class dismissed.

No they wont.

NATO have been saying this for decades yet all those academics searching Soviet archives have yet to find any plans confirming their self serving fears.

There certainly were plans to fight NATO but no plans to launch an attempted seizure of any NATO country/territory.

And you will cheer them.


The internal logic of russia, in its current configuration, demands that it attack NATO. The entire model (the Surkov doctrine which is still in place) requires constant military conquest of new lands.

If current russia changes into something else (are there any signs of that?) then things might be different.

It's always hilarious and tragic to see rational westerners trying to ascribe rational motivations to an entity which is driven entirely by ideological concerns.

At any circumstances? How do you know?

Lech Kaczyński wasn't being treated seriously when he said RuSSia will invade Ukraine and look at the reality in which we're living in now. Noone is laughing today, huh...

Kaczyński said: "Today Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine". We're living in this "tomorrow" now, it's our "today" now. So how can you be so sure what will happen tomorrow? Or the day after tomorrow?


Erm, if those academics have such an unrestricted access to Soviet archives could they please have a look at those still classified Katyń files that RuSSia won't share with Poland o_O

You are making a schoolboy mistake of teaching your granny how to suck balls, Barney. It's never too late for a bit of education though...

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryszard_Kukli%C5%84ski



One of the tasks of Ludowe Wojsko Polskie (People's Army of Poland) was precisely that - namely invading and seizing Denmark.


Why on earth would I cheer them, Maf? I'm still in Polish military reserve - do you think I'm suicidal?

They WILL attack though. This much is certain.

You love russia, you hate Ukrainians... do the math.

Really, all those plans were in response to a NATO first strike. No documents have been discovered in the archives of any former Warsaw pact nation outlining a first strike doctrine.

@Paulina
Of course none of us are psychics otherwise we would be buying lottery tickets.
The lack of evidence doesnt mean a first strike doctrine didnt exist but its strange that not a hint of one has been found in current NATO countries or Ukraine.

Well, they will attack (the Baltic countries at first most probably) given the right circumstances, imho, so let us not create the right circumstances for that...


What does that have to do with attacking NATO though? Poland is in NATO. Torq has his issues, but he's not Novichok, come on...

That's long been the likely flash point however those places, and especially the Suwałki Gap, are armed to the teeth now. Some commentators are talking about Moldova.

Who cares what is in the UNNR archives ?

Medvedev has talked openly about attacking Poland and you don't need to waste time in some dusty old KGB library - he did it on prime time TV (while drunk obviously)

But they have to got through Ukraine first... and they can't... they're trying to destabilize Moldova (operations in Romania are largely about Moldova) but there's not much they can do.


It's been a recurring motif on russian state media (information arm of the government and not state media as non-russians understand the term).

But again... Poland keeps warning westerners about russia who keep being surprised that Poland is right....

Exactly.


You were talking about a seizure of any NATO country/territory and now about a nuclear strike?

During the Soviet Union times they didn't have to seize any NATO countries because they already had the communist satellite states serving as a buffer between the USSR and the West. Now all those "buffer countries" are in NATO. Including small Baltic states with Estonia having a 24% Russian/RuSSian minority now. Remember how having a lot of Russian speakers ended for Ukraine?

So, we're living in a different reality now. And today's RuSSia isn't communist, it's nationalistic. There are "lands" that RuSSians view as "theirs" that are not theirs anymore (just like in case of Nazi Germany). And those "lands" are of course not France or Germany or UK or Italy, but Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic states, etc.

In my opinion the likelihood of RuSSia invading the Baltics, for example, depends on, among others, the strength of NATO. Not only on military strength, but also on unity and the will to defend some small country in Eastern Europe. If there's going to be a political need in RuSSia and they'll see enough weakness in NATO I don't see a reason why they wouldn't invade Estonia. Do you think they have a problem with invading countries and killing people? lol They clearly don't. Of course NATO would have to be really weak for that to happen or there would have to be no will to defend countries on the Eastern flank of NATO. But as you can see with what's happening with the US right now - God knows what new horrors await us in the future... And if RuSSia takes Ukraine it will get emboldened and stronger and in case of weak NATO (or falling apart completely) Poland is screwed strategically.


Yes, but we're talking about RuSSia attacking NATO countries now.

I admit the former but deny the latter. I have no excessive admiration for Ukraine - that's true - but to say that I hate them is going a bit too far.

Besides, despite my love for Russia I don't particularly feel like dying in a war against Russia, so I still don't understand why I should cheer Russia invading NATO (which - again - will certainly happen
).


Yes, really.


Erm... nope. There were plans of Warsaw Pact invading NATO countries and one of the task of Polish Army in those plans was invading and seizing Denmark - for decades the Danes were freaking out looking at our landing craft fleet, because they knew exactly what it was for. Again, don't teach your granny how to suck Warsaw Pact balls, Irishman. :)


... and Torq is in reserve anti-aircraft defense and Torq doesn't feel like dying, so yeah - there's that. :)

Its the same thing, Warsaw pact plans to seize territory or invade NATO countries were drawn up as a response to a first strike by NATO either nuclear or conventional.

The fact that no plan or hint of a plan (hidden/referred to in other documents) for the Warsaw pact to invade NATO countries have been found in the archives of any former Warsaw pact country is significant. whether this was a conventional or nuclear first strike option is irrelevant as no plans existed.

I dont believe that Russia has plans or the will to invade any NATO country


How very Trumpian of you, ignore everything except the show. If you want an example of forked tongue look at NATO and their facilitation of Genocide in Palestine.


Care to point towards the documentation as your previous links confirm what I said.


You are not alone, my Mate is a reserve naval Officer for at least the next 5 years, he doesnt want to die either.

He'll choose Moldova first.

He's already invaded Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine. His foul country have invaded Hungary and Czechoslovakia in his lifetime. And occupied a chunk of Europe.

One reason that NATO (or its Seppo-free successor) is so important for peace and stability.

I think you're very, very wrong then... lol Shockingly naive really o_O
Also, even if you were right that they don't have plans or the will to do that now, that may change in the future.

Barney, I have a simple question for you - did you believe before 2014 that RuSSia had any plans or will to invade Ukraine?

Trump's mouth is one thing however I personally don't think the United States itself would stand by if Poland got invaded.
Even Trump has always admired Poland for your efforts to support NATO and build up your military.


Exactly
This has been already hinted by Trump if Putin refuses to negotiate to end this insanity later than sooner.
This will put the fear of God into the Russian citizens who have already had enough of losing their young boys and destroyed economy.
They will get a taste of what Ukraine has been putting up with and pressure their leaders to end it.
That is my personal opinion anyways.


I have to agree, not in our life time anyways.

I know you guys don't believe in prayer that much but let this old hillbilly boy tell you from the bottom of his heart that it does work in the long run.

But you said that there were...


... and I showed you that such plans existed. Whether such invasion would be launched as a result of first attack or even a perceived threat by the Soviet/Warsaw Pact side or not is irrelevant, as we can see that Russia claims to feel threatened by NATO and gives this as one of the reasons for the invasion of Ukraine. So, if they invaded Ukraine because of alleged threat by NATO, then why on earth wouldn't they invade NATO? Especially that they mainstream media already claim that they are at war with NATO (a defensive war of course!).

They will definitely claim that they are merely defending themselves :) That's what Russians do - they are never the aggressors :) Like in this old joke about a Russian prisoner and an Indian chief - мы не агрессоры :) :) :)

See, Barney, that's why the West needs Poles to teach you about Russia. You are like little children in the fog without us.


No sane man wants to die. Wars happen though, and - at the risk of repeating myself - Russia WILL attack NATO.

Because Trump would respond much differently than pussy biden did and Russia has been waiting a long time for the United States to elect a weak president so they could attack Ukraine in which they did.
Russia didn't have the balls to do it when the U.S.A had a president.


I kind of hope they do because I have been threaten with nuke's since I was 8 years old by Russia.
I am at the point now of saying, "Bring it on Bullies, lets get it over with, or stfu with your threats of a nuclear war, 'Mighty Mouth'.
Putin knows that NATO will not stop at Moscow and St. Petersburg vanishing.

I really dont want to go round in circles here...

Those plans existed which is not surprising as common sense will tell you that any country will retaliate and then pump out the propaganda to justify any action.

They Invaded Ukraine because it was not and is not a NATO country and I dont think it will ever be a NATO country.
I dont think it will ever be in the EU either.

@Paulina
I dont want to sound like Yoda here but anything can change in the future including plans yes:)

Before 2014? I dont know but the action in Crimea suggests a well rehearsed action. The arming of the Donbas insurgents was no accident like the arming of the wests favourite headchoppers in Syria.

Yes Russia had plans once their placeman was replaced by someone else's place man.