Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 19

The Russian rivers of blood to advance 40 km from Avdeevka.

Do you think Russians care? For them what counts is the win, the final result. Human life not so much.

Now, they can throw another 500,000 soldiers into it. They have resources too and the will, what resources do Ukrainians have if the US stops supporting them? How long they can put up the fight without foreign aid? Do you know?

Chinese economy is essentially in tatters.... with a plummeting population and a leader who openly praises the Cultural Revolution.

Poland does not need to fall into the pro-China camp.

No one has successfully combined capitalism and dictatorship. Such combinations reach an insurpassable wall and then either de-dictatorize or de-capitalize.... both russia and china have chosen the latter.

Absolutely agree! And pronto!!! We should had started yesteryear!!!

Call your Congressman :)))

Yesterday in Munich, Keith Kellogg - Trump's envoy for Ukraine - said that the idea behind removing sanctions from Russia and inviting it back into the G8 and other organizations was to "break its alliances with NK, Iran, and China".

A sort of reverse Kissinger. This time China is in the role of the stronger senior partner, and Russia is in the role of the spoiler who can be "peeled away".

I think the time for this "maneuver" is loooooong past.

Probably the right time to try something like this was 2012-2013. At least that's my opinion. Who knows what happens inside Putin's head.

Speaking personally, I would be deeply embarrassed in front of the Chinese if we ended up stabbing them in the back after they supported us through three years of war. I'm sure the rest of the world would notice too, and would make the appropriate conclusions. Meanwhile, we'll be just one amongst many in America's club of puppets.


You told me I would see sanctions removed from Russia either when I am a very old man, or only after Russia paid Ukraine reparations.

Have you been reading the news?

Tomorrow MORNING, in Saudi Arabia, Lavrov is already meeting with Rubio. The agenda? "All encompassing talks aimed at improving bilateral trade and security relations".

When Kellogg was asked in Munich if Europeans will get to play a role in the negotiations- instead of repeating that they are not invited... this time he said that "of course they have a role to play, because they also have enforced sanctions on Russia. Russia won't engage unless they remove them too."

So what do you say now Pawian?

These American geniuses of diplomacy have given away the entire game, before even the first piece was moved. What was supposed to last until "I am a very old man", will now probably be removed (in part) before the war has even ended.

Even I can't believe our luck. I thought these sanctions would be there for decades - like you!

It seems America really believes it can drive a wedge between Putin and Xi. Crazier things have happened, but I'm not holding my breath.

Besides the rivalry with the US, I wonder what else connects them....and if there is something at all....and how easy or difficult it will be to put a wedge in....

But seriously If I had to decide I would prefer Russia to China!

Not my problem.

A reminder...In 2022, Z was ready to sign a peace agreement with P. The US told Z to fight so he did and had 500,000 Us killed.

Any questions?

Yes, "Is it true that the United States does not want Ukraine to win so the $war$ will go on ?"

The US never gave a fvck about Ukraine and Ukrainians.

The objective was to use Ukraine to weaken Russia, make money for USMICC, and to justify 1T mil budget and NATO.

"Evil Russia! Getting ready to invade the Universe!"

What about a guy got arrested for answering a YouTube poll? A girl that got arrested for donating $1 to some Twitch charity for Ukraine? A father that got arrested because his small child said something wrong in school?

Mostly what connects us, is the feeling of being butthurt - hahaha!

China thinks it spent most of the 19th and 20th century being raped by Western powers (and Russia).

Russia similarly thinks it got a raw deal. Earlier, in and around WW1 times, and more recently post 1991.

Both Russia and China have learned through hard experience that the West is not to be trusted.

They claim they want the same for us, as they have for themselves, but the minute we begin to get close they slam the breaks. The EU, by enforcing various super complicated regulations which only European manufacturers can comply with (and then they call it concern for the environment). America by straight up enforcing sanctions.

Though the West spent all of the 20th century clouding up the atmosphere, the much poorer Russian and Chinese people are now supposed to drastically cut our emissions before we ever had a chance to catch up.

The West bore the ugliest autocracies, and are still the only people to stuff people into ovens on an industrial scale, yet they go around constantly reading us lectures about human rights.

What connects China and Russia is exhaustion at Western hypocrisy. In trade, in arms, in human rights - in everything. You don't play a fair game, you don't deal honestly, and you don't believe in the words you say.

Yes, It is what I think. I didn't use that expression because I underestimated PF.
It Seems to me that the US will be trying to pull it with Russia.

In the event of that happening Europe has two options being a doormat for the US.
That option is available for Western Europe. The Baltic states most likely are going to be absorbed by Russia.
Poland will become a puppet state with a strong Russian influence and limited development.
So for Europe and even more for Poland, there is another option - to build a strong but limited European entity with a Chinese option.
Aside from this Poland should build its nuclear plans and nukes as well as space capabilities.
---

Russia will not be satisfied with the role of junior partner. You know it. So-called reverse Kissinger is not that far off.
If anything Russia will pull that trick - we don't want to stab our Chinese ally to get better terms.

But adjacent countries have trusted the west and became richer and more peaceful - Taiwan, Poland being obvious examples

The reasons North Nigeria is crap have everything to do with its own government and lack of civil society

Kosovo referendum - goooooooood
Crimean referendum - baaaaaaaaad

Simplenton out, stop spamming.

Hmmm.....I agree that many of their followers might feel that way, but the leaders? The top level? Hard to imagine...

They got that far up because they proved to be tougher than the rest (both of them)....wouldn't they rather agree, maybe even admire, how the West tried to win the game?...Pulling all the strings it could....even with cheating and being not-trustworthy? Isn't that how they play the game too? How they became successful too? And now you paint them as whiny pussies?

That is not how I see them...

Come on. You are better than providing a one-sided assessment. It would be just as accurate to say that all the angels in the sky are Russian or Chinese.

Russian option is fine as long as it is about Europe or a close German Polish alliance.
Russia has no serious offer for Poland and that is a problem.
-------

lol! Poor you!

Poland and Taiwan both used the West. They didn't "trust" the West.

Taiwan is the Kuomintang. The Kuomintang is Taiwan. It is the nationalist party of China, founded by Chiang Kai Shek, and self exiled to Taiwan after a defeat to the Communists on the Mainland. All of China's elite, all of their money, all of their intelligentsia - picked up and left to Hong Kong and Taiwan. China was left with an ocean of peasants. Taiwan would be successful in any context. It needed American protection to ensure its survival against its Communist nemesis. That's all.

Poland is an ancient country, not some Papua New Guinea. It was rich in the past, much before America even existed as a country. Them becoming rich now, and Ukraine and Belarus being relatively more poor - is a function of Poland receiving EU funds and actually having an elite that can think somewhat strategically.


America has some advantages before Russia, this is for sure. But not all of them can be implemented in Russia.

1) English Common Law system - the best in the world. Strong, independent, and respected courts that rely on precedent more than a codex is a huge advantage.

2) True and real decentralization. Russia may call itself a federation, but the truth is that all power is in Moscow.

3) Respect for wealth. In Russia people despise wealth. Any wealthy person is immediately a sinner.

4) Religion. Makes for good employees and good soldiers. In Russia it is still too weak.

5) Cult of sport. Good for all sorts of reasons.

Let them be unsatisfied; that's their paragative but don't forget to ask them what they are bringing to the table, except for the nuclear arsenal.

If China is wise, it won't treat Russia as a junior partner.

China knows, on its own skin, that who is down on his knees today, can be strong again tomorrow.

Why China and Russia can be friends now, is because the Soviet government denounced all the unequal treaties that were forced by the Imperial Russian government on China. We gifted them back a territory the size of many European states in Manchuria. This includes the port of Dalniy (the Chinese now call it Dalian, and it is one of the main shipbuilding centers of China).

1) We built out their nuclear program, when the West wouldn't even send them potatoes because they were Communist.

2) We built their entire educational system. Including the medical and engineering fields.

3) We received tens of thousands of Chinese students in our universities.

4) We trained tens of thousands of Chinese officers.

5) During their first Five Year Plan, we helped them develop over 150 industrial projects - which laid the foundation for China's heavy industry - including metals, energy, and machinebuilding.

6) We modernized their entire agricultural complex, so that they were finally able to feed their own people.

7) We provided billions of dollars of loans at virtually no interest.

The current generation of Chinese leadership, all had fathers that were profoundly influenced by Russia. It would be very foolish of them to begin treating us as a pawn suddenly.

You have a point.

On the other hand, Russia might be not interested in an alliance with the US. Only in getting as many concessions as possible, Here it is the moment that Poland should worry.
We don't know the details but so far Trump's policy in Europe and Ukraine tell us that the US lost the first round in the war of domination in the world.

Yes.

We are not some prostitute like Ukraine.

Shove your alliance up your a*s. Not after giving hundreds of billions of dollars of weapons to kill my compatriots.

There was a time - a veeeeeery long time - when we could exchange niceties. Unfortunately, your side decided to ratchet it up to DEFCON 1, before realizing - "Oh wait, we actually don't care about Ukraine so much".

The best we can hope for right now, is that America and Russia leave each other alone and work to improve their own backyard.

German military aid delivered to Ukraine in the last 4 weeks

300 HF-1 loitering munitions
- 14 Hornet XR UAVs
- 245 RQ-35 Heidrun UAVs
- 29 Songbird UAVs
- 51 Vector UAVs
- 4 Zuzana 2 self-propelled artillery systems
- 56 FFG MRAPs
- 16 mine ploughs
- 2 WiSENT 1 MC mine-clearing tanks
- 8 border protection vehicles
- 73 AK-47 assault rifles
- 150 CR 308 rifles
- 2,915 HK416 assault rifles
- 64 HLR 338 precision rifles
- 100 MG5
- 900 MK 556 assault rifles
- IRIS-T missiles for IRIS-T SLS launchers
- IRIS-T SL missiles for IRIS-T SLM fire units
- 41,000 35mm HEI-T rounds for Gepard & Cheetah SPAAGs
- ? ammunition for Leopard 1A5 MBTs
- ? ammunition for Marder 1A3 IFVs
- 2,000 122mm shells
- 50,000 155mm shells
- 74,000 40mm rounds for automatic grenade launchers
- 645 laser range finders
- 27,800 wool blankets
- 37,200 tourniquets

don't see Taurus on that list.... only russia can "escalate" (Scholz doctrine). Ukraine has to make do with just enough to keep fighting but not win...

Did Germany ever really want Ukrainian victory?

There is not Olaf either, after all, it is the most powerful German weapon of mass destruction.

And it won't be, guaranteed by AfD 👍🏻

x.com/clashreport/status/1891237053439807769



Germany, pre-election polls for all districts, ie. direct mandates.

Right and further right.

The Christian Democrats are black, the AfD is blue.

So, wherever GDR was, AfD now has a majority there. Germany was united, the Berlin Wall was torn down, but the wall seems to have remained in people's minds.

The AfD is polling at 20% and will get a proportionate share of thr seats in the parliament.

@mafketis


I dont know about wanting. Scholz never said publically said that Ukraine could win the war outright. Which in hindsight means that he had a better assessment of the situation than most.