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Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 14


Bobko  26 | 2167
13 Sep 2024 #511
It has exactly the opposite effect to the one intended

I don't know about that. Look at Milo and Neuf - it's certainly working on them. Maf seems like a more reasonable person, and instead accents his attacks on Russians being amoral. Maf I can appreciate, to some extent.

If you open Twitter, you can see the that there are pockets on both sides (pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian) where people simply send each other only the most encouraging reports and discuss nothing at all that could be even slightly negative for their side.

They don't seem to care or understand that they are engaging in wholesale consumption of propaganda being pumped out by Ukrainian and Russian special services.

Most of these people do not live anywhere close to Ukraine or Russia. The internal Ukrainian and Russian social media narratives are much more sophisticated in comparison.

They project their own personalities and values onto the tapestry of this war, and have become somewhat like professional cheerleaders. Like Neuf and like Milo, this war is something entirely different to them than a brutal armed conflict in which hundreds perish daily. For some, it's an opportunity to prove their humanitarian credentials (American Democrats vs Republicans). For others, it's an opportunity to discuss European ideals, whatever the hell those are. Some are just clueless passengers that pick up on whatever seems to be the direction of least resistance.

The point is, this propaganda has a target audience and they consume it with great pleasure.

Some of these people have their entire being wrapped up in this war, and if something bad happens they get as upset as if their family dog died. I think these people must be mentally ill, or are experiencing some kind of challenges in their life - and so they live vicariously through Ukrainian or Russian victories on the battlefield. These people really scare me, and I am wary of engaging with them.

There's no real geographical split. In America and in Europe they exist on either side of the political spectrum. But also, and surprisingly for me, they also exist in Africa, South America, and South Asia.

The only real split is that almost none of them are Russian or Ukrainian.

I think the Ukrainian SBU/GUR, and the Russian FSB/GRU are not stupid and they are investing money and time into this because they see some kind of end value in it.

Less than 40 percent

Are you a professional comedian?
Crow  154 | 9177
13 Sep 2024 #512
What? Polish speaking government is still operational?

Poles?
Mr Grunwald  33 | 2120
13 Sep 2024 #513
I think the Ukrainian SBU/GUR, and the Russian FSB/GRU are not stupid

They monitor their own backyard closely and are worried about western influences in their society. (Both Ukrainian and Russian)

It's blame is put on Poland by Russia and Lukashenka in Belarus, but they perfectly well it's a trend internationally.

This has lead to believe or at least try to export influence with every means possible, they are experimenting with western societies via social media.

Nowadays youth is gonna become adults, what twin towers and invasion of Iraq and Palestine conflict were for earlier generations. Is going to be Ukraine and Russia conflict for next 20-40 years. They are sowing as much as possible to bear fruit of future intelligence services in the west. For own measures or counter each other out
PolAmKrakow  2 | 904
13 Sep 2024 #515
@mafketis
You have zero sense. The US is not going to war for Ukraine with NATO. Article five will be a big buad fart. Lots of stink and no output. How about Europe fights Russia on their own? Lets see how that WW goes without the US involved.

Anyone thinking the US is going to fight another war in Europe for Europeans is fvcking retarded. Not going to happen. There would be a civil war in the Us before that would be allowed to happen.
mafketis  38 | 10857
13 Sep 2024 #516
The US is not going to war for Ukraine with NATO

And if russia hits Rzeszów which you seem to think is a real possibility?

Should Poland be allowed to shoot down russian drones in Polish air space? What about 'about to enter Polish air space'?
GefreiterKania  28 | 1379
13 Sep 2024 #517
I don't know about that. Look at Milo and Neuf - it's certainly working on them.

Good point.

Article five will be a big buad fart. How about Europe fights Russia on their own?

Oh, come on! If Putin invades Poland I expect the US to send a strongly worded letter rebuking his actions. Surely we can expect at least that. *rolls eyes*

That's the eternal problem with our allies: they are sh*tting themselves even before the war starts. WW2 and now - the same thing. Why do we always have to choose soft pussies as our allies? Scandalous.
GefreiterKania  28 | 1379
13 Sep 2024 #518
Scandalous.

Having said that, PolAm, I do appreciate how you grew in wisdom over time. From "happy gulag, b*tches" to "you can take Europe, comrades"! :)
pawian  219 | 24568
13 Sep 2024 #519
There would be a civil war in the Us before

Of course not. Stop daydreaming.
PolAmKrakow  2 | 904
13 Sep 2024 #520
@mafketis
I said a long time ago if it enters Polish airspace to shoot it down. But shooting down anything over Ukraine? No. Its not Poland war, and its not the US's war either. As for Rzeszow, I think Biden would be sucking his thumb not knowing what to do. I think he beleives he is calling Vlads bluff until Vlad says FO and does something. Remember Biden is now trying to create a legacy out of his sh1t show presidency.

@GefreiterKania
If Vlad invaded Poland I believe the US would fight in Poland. But an invasion is not a precision strike on a military target. And I would bet Russia knows the exact routes that weapons are traveling into Ukraien from Poland. Those would be the first to go.

As for my saying happy gulag biatches, nothing has changed. I still want Russia to lose the war. But they wont. I am a realist. Ukraine is killing off a generation of young men and it will hurt them for the next 30 years. Its time to stop listening to war mongers and sit down to talk.
GefreiterKania  28 | 1379
13 Sep 2024 #521
Vlad

Volodya.

I believe the US would fight in Poland.

That makes one of us.

Its time to stop listening to war mongers and sit down to talk.

Who are the warmongers though? That is the question.
pawian  219 | 24568
13 Sep 2024 #522
that weapons are traveling into Ukraien from Poland. Those would be the first to go.

You mean infrastructure? But Russians know that Poland will immediately strike their infrustructure in Konigsberg. Only ruins will be left.
GefreiterKania  28 | 1379
13 Sep 2024 #523
Ukraine is killing off a generation of young men and it will hurt them for the next 30 years.

The same can also be said of Russia.

The difference is that Ukraine doesn't have an ambition to be a global superpower - all they want is to be a regular (slightly retarded and turbopatriotic but still) country where everyone can go back to normal life and Zelensky can go back to playing piano with his d*ck. Russia, on the other hand, does want to be a superpower but fails to register that their population is lower than Java Island and their economy is smaller than Italy's. That means problems.

Can problems with ambitious wannabe superpowers be solved by appeasement? History has taught us that they cannot. History has also taught us that aggressive countries can be pacified by facilitating transition to proper democracy and increasing the wealth of their citizens (see Germany after WW2). So, the only way out of this mess is forcing the collapse of putinist regime and then - equally important part - turning Russia into a prosperous democratic country. Some people have wet fantasies of humiliating Russia and enforcing huge war reparations that will destroy their economy completely. They're idiots. The way of conduct towards Russia must be the same as it was towards Germany after WW2: denazification + wealth building = deputinisation + wealth building.

That's the only way to achieve long-lasting and stable peace.
PolAmKrakow  2 | 904
13 Sep 2024 #524
@pawian
LMFAO Poland attack who? With what? Poland has **** for an army, and isnt even armed to defend itself let alone attack Russia. Pull your head out of your a$$.

@GefreiterKania
In the end Ukraine is a **** hole. It will remain one until the banks cash out, and Z is long gone. Russia isnt going away, Putin isnt getting tossed out. All the testing of new technology and tactics will thin out as men thin out. The battle of manpower will be won by Russia in the end. There is no escaping math.
pawian  219 | 24568
13 Sep 2024 #525
turning Russia into a prosperous democratic country.

We can dream of it but the truth is it will take not years or decades but centuries.........
Novichok  5 | 7693
13 Sep 2024 #526
Who are the warmongers though? That is the question.

The scum that makes money when people die from bullets and bombs. It ain't Russia.
That's the only way to achieve long-lasting and stable peace.

Impossible when the NATO python refuses to stay in the cage.

From Russia's POV, it matters shlt how "democratic" the process is. Enemy is a worse enemy when it's closer.

Memo to morons who is tempted to give me another lecture about "sovereign and democratic countries" joining NATO:

Shove it up you ass and tell me how the US would react to the Warsaw Pact just South of Rio Grande and in Cuba.
pawian  219 | 24568
13 Sep 2024 #527
Novi, stop stuttering. Is it one of the symptoms of your dementia????
Novichok  5 | 7693
13 Sep 2024 #528
There is no escaping math.

I have a great idea...

Just as men can self-identify as women, Ukrainian women can self-identify as men.

There...Problem solved since women are equal to men and can do everything men can and better.

Me, a genius again, and progressive, too! My chest is swelling...
pawian  219 | 24568
13 Sep 2024 #529
My chest is swelling.

Mosquitoes bit you when you were taking a nap outside, you moron!
Miloslaw  21 | 4880
13 Sep 2024 #530
More truth about the war in Ukraine;



More about Ukraine;


Bobko  26 | 2167
13 Sep 2024 #531
Can problems with ambitious wannabe superpowers be solved by appeasement?

It's not an ambitious wannabe superpower, but a revisionist former superpower.

I think there are some parallels for that too - which could be quite illuminating for modern observers.

They are sowing as much as possible to bear fruit of future intelligence services in the west.

Very nice Grunnie) Good analysis.
GefreiterKania  28 | 1379
14 Sep 2024 #532
It's not an ambitious wannabe superpower, but a revisionist former superpower.

Yes, indeed, so the parallel with Germany seems even more fitting. At the moment Russia is kind of post-WW1 Germany - bitter and resentful which probably will lead her to start another war she cannot win. After the inevitable defeat the conduct of the victorious side will have to be as it was towards Germany after WW2 (i.e. deputinisation and wealth building) to avoid the same scenario again.

With a bit of luck we might even be able to skip the WW3 phase if the war in Ukraine drags for long enough; it will exhaust Russia and cause the fall of the current regime at much lower cost of life and material.

One way or another, we absolutely have to keep two kinds of retards at bay:

a) those who would like to escalate too quickly, provoking Russia exceedingly and starting the WW3 too early, before giving the putinist regime a chance to fall;
b) those who would like to humiliate Russia, burden her with unreasonably high war reparations, divide it into "twelve different Russistans" etc. etc.

If they can be marginalised, everything should be right in the universe.
GefreiterKania  28 | 1379
14 Sep 2024 #533
You have been telling us for over a year that the NNs would be in Kiev in a few months.

I'm not quite sure if PolAm made such prediction, buuuut... talking about predicitions, let me just remind you that you predicted at the end of May that:

"This war will finish this year."

"It will be a negotiated withdrawal with no territory left in North Nigerian hands."


Yes - I remember everything (and keep records just in case), and yes - I'm an arsehole.

So, the clock is ticking cms - only three and a half months left for the full withdrawal of Russia from all Ukrainian territory. Meanwhile, you can continue making fun of other people's predicitons. :)
cms neuf  1 | 1759
14 Sep 2024 #534
Sure - and I stick with it. The front line will only move a few km, Putler will be deposed in a palace coup and the war will finish. Only don't know if the North Nigerians will have time to physically withdraw, but many will desert their posts anyway and go back to their huts in Siberia
GefreiterKania  28 | 1379
14 Sep 2024 #535
Sure - and I stick with it.

I admire the consistency. :)

The lack of observation skills and conclusion drawing ability is perhaps not so admirable but let's wait and see.

*marks the date in calendar*
PolAmKrakow  2 | 904
14 Sep 2024 #536
One way or another, we absolutely have to keep two kinds of retards at bay:

Excellent points and insight.

After Starmer met with Biden yesterday, reports are now coming out that Biden is indeed questioning whether or not it is a good idea to allow the use of long range weapons into Russia by Ukraine. It is said he is genuinely fearful of an escalation into full fleged war with Russia. And this is one of the first smart things Biden has done in a long time. Pushing Vlad in this way would be a terrible mistake, and it would escalate things.

While news reports out of England are saying this US approval is a done deal, I think Biden waits for the UK to allow it first and measures Putins reaction. If Biden drags the US into a war, his attempt to save his legacy wouold be over, and Kumala would need to come out in support or against it, and that would be a big problem.
GefreiterKania  28 | 1379
14 Sep 2024 #537
Pushing Vlad in this way would be a terrible mistake, and it would escalate things.

Exactly.

What's the point of speeding up the escalation? What's the rush? Gambling and calling bluffs is all good and well but the people in power would be well advised to remember that they are gambling with lives of millions of people. They might think that they control the escalation ladder but the higher you climb it the more difficult it gets to control it.

reports out of England are saying this US approval is a done deal

England, England... our beloved England...

I shall refrain at this particular moment from making comments about our dear British friends.
Bobko  26 | 2167
14 Sep 2024 #538
Yes, indeed, so the parallel with Germany seems even more fitting.

In some aspects yes, and in other - quite important ones - no.

The obvious parallels with interwar Germany you have covered: national humiliation, a plunge into poverty, a search for a new national idea, a tilt towards autocracy, etc.

But in terms of its ability to prosecute long and painful wars they could not be more different.

Once Germany failed to take the oil fields of the Caucasus and then lost the Romanian oil fields, the war was as good as done. It was a wild gamble by Hitler to secure the necessities for a 1,000 year Reich, and it failed.

Russia has internal resources that Germany never had - pretty much the entire periodic table of elements.

Russia is not lead by inflexible ideologues, but wily bourgeois opportunists, who surprise the West at every step with sanctions busting through shadow tanker fleets, cryptocurrency capital transfers, and shrewd diplomacy. All this, aided by an entire generation of Russian intellectuals educated and trained by the West.

Russia has the world's largest nuclear arsenal.

China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, etc are quite a bit more useful as allies than Imperial Japan.

Russia still has almost twice the population of Germany, and on top of that has other pools of manpower it can draw on - including Central Asians, Africans, and South Americans.

So I think Russia deserves its own category.

///////

In other news, the West is starting to catch on that Zelensky is quite unpopular in Ukraine. Surprise!

Quote from Politico:

" And though seen as a lionhearted wartime leader overseas, his inspirational rhetoric and spellbinding oratory capturing the hearts of audiences from Washington to London and Brussels to Warsaw, Zelenskyy's popularity has been steadily declining in his own country. Ukrainians have always been more skeptical of him."



GefreiterKania  28 | 1379
14 Sep 2024 #539
aided by an entire generation of Russian intellectuals educated and trained by the West

*ekhm* :)

So I think Russia deserves its own category.

On second thoughts, it definitely does. Historical parallels are never entirely accurate anyway.

You make a good point about potential demographic pools Russia can draw from - Central Asia among them. All those Uzbekistans, Kirgistans and other Kazakhstans for example. In the past they had tendency to blame Russia for everything and thought that they will all become South Koreas as soon as the Russian "colonisers" are gone. Now, I think enough time has passed for them to notice the gaps in their reasoning, so perhaps they will turn towards Russia again.

One way or another, for more countries (as a more sane version of Crow, I am - of course - thinking about Slavic states) to turn towards Russia she has to become economically successful and more peaceful. This can only be done in a similar way it was done to Germany after WW2. But this also means Putin has to be replaced by another politician - not necessarily a liberal (a Russian friend tells me that a dentist might not be able to fix the consequences if I suggested going back to 1990s liberalism in Russia :)) but at least someone less inclined to turn to military force in international relations. A Russian Konrad Adenauer. Is there anyone like that among Russian political class?
cms neuf  1 | 1759
14 Sep 2024 #540
North Nigerians can draw on actual Nigerians to fight their stupid colonial wars ?

That's probably news to the people of Lagos who are happily dancing, drinking and enjoying a free life in their much nicer country

Nobody wants to help NN or live like them - whether they are Kazakh, Nicaraguan, Angolan or whatever

It is the world's biggest prison camp and the food is terrible


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