Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 10

@Alien
This was a brand new SUV, well over 300K to buy. Not used. I know the prices of luxury cars. Only pretenders buy used Bentleys and this was parked outside of a five star hotel I have stayed at that is well over 1000 pln a night on weekdays.

Now its in the german news:


spiegel.de/ausland/polen-andrzej-duda-offen-fuer-stationierung-von-atomwaffen-in-polen-a-2c44e891-a2bb-4245-9d52-5219b46bbc79

Kremlin leader Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons since the start of the Ukraine war. Poland's President Duda has once again emphasized that his country is ready for nuclear deterrence. ...

Well....it's one of the lessons from the Ukraine war....give up your nukes, trust the West to defend you as he promised and get invaded by your big bad neighbour!

mil.in.ua/en/news/bild-germany-misses-deadline-for-delivery-of-400-armored-vehicles-to-ukraine/

This is the European support for Ukraine defined. I am not picking on Germany here, but this is systemic throughout the EU. All the talk is just talk and buying time until the US has to step in and bail people out.

....I looked into it and it doesn't seem systemic but really special!

BILD has already a long article on that:

bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/geheimdokumente-zeigen-mega-auftrag-pistorius-hat-ein-gepanzertes-problem-66227de1714ff462fada5b7e

Here the core of the problem translated:

....But what is the reason for the delay in the start of deliveries of the "German" FFG vehicles?

Possibly due to the fact that FFG does not build essential components of the mine-protected vehicle itself, some of which have already been assembled, but rather obtains them from the USA.

According to BILD information, the 400 vans to be delivered (calculated unit price paid by Germany including spare parts, certificates and delivery costs: 787,500 euros) are again converted vehicles of the originally civilian type "BATT UMG". This vehicle is manufactured by the US company "The Armored Group (TAG)".

An FFG spokesman did not want to confirm the actual type of vehicle to BILD, but admitted: "Vehicle components are manufactured in the USA and delivered to Germany for the final assembly of the vehicles."

....
Ministry circles say that "restrictive export permits from the USA to Germany" led to the previous delivery delays.

However, it is secretly admitted that the necessary certificates for mine protection of the vehicles (STANAG 4569 Level 2 a+b) are not yet available. However, these are mandatory in order to guarantee Ukrainian soldiers protection against mines and other explosions in the defensive war against Russia......

www-bild-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland-und-internationales/geheimdokumente-zeigen-mega-auftrag-pistorius-hat-ein-gepanzertes-problem-66227de1714ff462fada5b7e?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

New US aid package to include longer range ATACMS missiles. This new tool for Ukraine puts everything in Crimea within range. One overwhelming swarm of missiles and drones and that bridge will be gone. This could be very damaging for Vlads image at home. Crimea should have been the the target for Ukraine this whole time, it is the biggest prize that Vlad has. Now it will be interesting to see how quickly the senate acts to pass things, and then how quickly everything begins to arrive in Ukraine. Lets hope they have enough men left to unpack everything.

We have to hope that it is already there or at least on the way, e.g. in Poland.

Something to lighten the mood:

Putin's Propagandists Rage Against the Republican 'Betrayal

Kremlin mouthpieces are having a hard time explaining why a supposedly sympathetic US Congress has just passed a huge military aid package for Ukraine

Beneath the seething anger is an unspoken truth - that the enormous US aid package seriously complicates Russia's realistic path to victory and ensures yet more tens of thousands of young Russians will suffer death and dismemberment. The evidence of enormous casualties is available for all to see in the swelling graveyards of the homeland.

Despite the boasting and bluster, Russians are suffering under the weight of Putin's war of aggression and the cracks are starting to show. Appearing on The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov last week, Karen Shakhnazarov urged fellow propagandists to start telling the truth about Russia's internal struggles and its many problems.

cepa.org/article/putins-propagandists-rage-against-the-republican-betrayal/

If ATACMS of the right sort are transferred, the bridge is likely done. Until the war is over, that is, or Ukraine is pushed far enough back that it can't reach it even with ATACMS.

However, this won't have the impact it would have had just 6-12 months ago.

The reason - I have already shared with you. There is now a land bridge to Crimea, by rail. Locomotives are already crossing it. Crimea no longer plays an all important role of logistical hub, but is now rather more of a liability.

What do you mean by it being a liability? Is the Crimea no longer a strategic naval post? Has Russia started retrofitting other Black Sea ports to assume naval needs?


That's the biggie...manpower. I cannot figure out a way to be optimistic about Ukrainian victory when the average age of Ukrainian soldier is early-40's and reports of draft dodging. Doesn't matter how many advanced weapon systems and lethal munitions you have, you need manpower to take back territory...territory that's fortified.

The peninsula is not so much a peninsula, but more an island.

So the "liability" part is dictated by it being severable. To sever it completely, would mean cutting the Kerch Bridge, and then the two small bridges that link Crimea to mainland Ukraine.

In the first stage of the war, it was rather an asset. An assembling ground from which we could project force North.

Now most of the logistical operations are based in and around Rostov, as are the majority of the air bases and munitions depots.

OK, I understand now. It's not important in terms of the war in Ukraine. It is still a strategic naval port, though, yes?

@Alien
Polish-Russian war was fratricidal, especially if we're talking about the northern Poles (hi by the way). Only thing that separated the two was what sect of Christianity we adhered to (and of course, levels of Asian blood!)

It still has a strategic naval port

It is still infinitely dear to us as the place where Rus was baptized, as the scene of some our greatest feats of martial valor, as a strategic naval base, as a place a containing millions of our compatriots, and as a beloved resort.

Putin is right.

The chief RINO gave Biden 95B for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan and got nothing for the US to confirm again that the US government is a criminal organization. They should be tried for treason and executed - every single mother fvcker who voted for that bullshit.

That is, most Americans.

No, it wasn't. It was a war between communism and capitalism. Thanks to this, Poland won it.

I see you are taking the North Nigerian view of democracy - that anyone who disagrees with you should be executed

Precisely what this war is about. Ukraine wants to live according to civilized values

I doubt even the Bolsheviks and Pilsudski thought of it in those terms.

It was a war to reassemble the pieces remaining in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution, in preparation for further struggle.

@Bobko
I agree that strategically its not as big a target it was 12 months ago. Symbolically though, Crimea would be a loss I dont think he could come back from.

One billion in arms to be sent immediately to Ukraine once the senate passes the funding today. Yet, still, who is going to be there to use all of this new gear?

Here's a dime, call someone who cares.....

Most Americans are morons and will support a lunar expedition to get free moon cheese.

Send them a bill for $5000 and ask them if they still support Ukraine.

Why is every Polak an idiot?

Send them a russian textbook and ask if they don't want to support Ukraine....

Of course Putin could not recover from losing Crimea. That would set us back not to February of 2022, but all the way back to 2014. A pretty disastrous result.

But going from "the Kerch Bridge is destroyed" to "Crimea is lost" - is a huge leap.

Britain and France (and the Ottoman Turks) were not able to effectively dislodge Russia from Crimea during the Crimean War. Back then there was no bridge, and the French and British had pretty complete dominance over the seas.

Hitler spent 20X more men and material taking Crimea than he originally expected. This involved using the largest artillery gun in history, and basically burying all the defenders of Sevastopol under collapsing cliffs. Crimea was a sort of Stalingrad, in miniature.

It's not like all the Russians in Crimea will get on boats and start rowing towards Russia as soon as the bridge collapses. No... you still need to invade the peninsula. You still need to supply Ukrainian forces as they campaign there. You need to have adequate reserves to not just conquer the place, but to occupy it too - since the Crimeans are not big fans of Ukraine.

Does Ukraine have the manpower for that?

That is the idea.
---

As imbecilic as the US returning Manhattan to a bunch of drunk Indians in Oklahoma...

Is that go for
Palestine as well?
By the way I'm not talking about restoring anything you moron, just to take away from Russia. It could go to Turkey for all I care.

more peak russia.... a woman whose son was killed in Ukraine used the 'bereavement' payments to buy a new apartment... but she also wants to fix up her house in the country..... hmmmmm what to do..... she knows! send another son to be killed in Ukraine!!!!

twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1782708697715601901

Note the shirt she's wearing....

Such a mystery why Ukrainians don't want the degraded russian lifestyle.....

OK, as a test, let Cuba take back Gitmo to see how it goes...

Crimea is mountainous.

Crimea is only accessible through two tiny bridges from Ukraine.

The Crimean population is loyal to Russia.

Ukraine can't even get its monkeys to liberate territory that they controlled as recently as 2022. I would really like to see them try it on Crimea.

If Ukraine manages to clear the approaches in Kherson, that would allow them to get close to Crimea - the first thing Russia will do is blow those bridges. What then?

Are we going to see a Ukrainian D-Day? Tens of thousands of inflatable boats powered by Yamaha engines descending upon the beaches of Crimea? Hahahaha

Do you have an actual ethnic map of Ukraine? You know where actually pro-Russia Russians live and where not? Is there something (trustworthy I mean) like that?