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Posts by Tacitus  

Joined: 6 Jul 2017 / Male ♂
Warnings: 2 - OQ
Last Post: 7 hrs ago
Threads: 2
Posts: 1,402

Displayed posts: 1404 / page 1 of 47
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Tacitus   
7 hrs ago
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

Boy, 15, jailed for five years in Russia for opposing Putin and the Ukraine war

Arseny Turbin, who committed his alleged crimes when he was just 14, has been branded as Russia's 'youngest terrorist' following his conviction.

metro.co.uk/2024/06/21/boy-15-jailed-russia-opposing-putin-ukraine-war-21083544/

Russians should remember this name. In the most optimistic scenario for the future of their country, they'll one day name streets after him.

His "crime" was delivering anti-war leaflets to mailboxes. Let us just hope that the parallels to the German "White Rose" ends there... .
Tacitus   
20 hrs ago
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@gumishu

let's look 5 years back and most of German politicians were supportive of cooperation with Putin

Sure, but none of them would have supported what he ended up doing in Ukraine, nor do they continue to defend them.

If the AfD ends up in power, or Le Pen in France or Trump in the USA. Well, things would get much more difficult foe Ukraine.
Tacitus   
20 hrs ago
News / THE ARMY OF POLAND - THE REALITY [436]

@Ironside

If you are so worried about the deficit

I am not worried and what deficit are you talking about?

I was just pointing out that Poland is worried about its future share in the reconstruction of Ukraine (which is imho a rather cynical topic to bring up at a point when Ukraine's future is far from secured), it could always send desperately needed weapons to Ukraine. Particulary air defence systems are the best advertisement. I am told most people in Kiev can recognize the sound of the Gepard guns at heart by now.
Tacitus   
21 hrs ago
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@jon357

it's hard to fault their government's financial help to Ukraine

Same goes for military help as well.

have elements of their population who support r*SSia

Not something to be proud off to be sure. But sadly something common in many countries. And it seems quite popular among a certain breed of politicians to side with Russia as well.

Nigel Farage claims Russia was provoked into Ukraine war.

theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/21/russia-was-provoked-into-ukraine-war-claims-nigel-farage

Let us just hope that they'll never come in power.
Tacitus   
1 day ago
Off-Topic / EURO 2024 (Po-Polska) [26]

Has anyone watched the videos of the crowd of Polish fans chanting "Ruska Kurwa " in front of the Russian embassy in Berlin. Really made my day.
Tacitus   
1 day ago
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@PolAmKrakow

I think thats more than an equal trade off for weapons.

Other countries are taking care of refugees too, yet are nevertheless sending aid as well. Besides sending weapons now helps us avoid a scenario im which Ukraine loses and we (and chiefly Poland) are stuck with 5m+ additional Ukrainian refugees.

Poland is one of the countries that needs to step up massively with their contribution in the case of a 2nd Trump presidency.
Tacitus   
1 day ago
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@Ironside

If anything Germany seems to shrink from the burden and financial cost

Germany is projected to provide €7 billion [£6billion] this year to Ukraine compared to the UK's £2.5 billion, that is nearly three times as much.'

google.com/amp/s/dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13221075/amp/Britains-military-aid-Ukraine-dwarfed-Germany.html

Plus all the humanitarian and financial aid.

Meanwhile France has pledged 2,5 bn€ for this year and Italy and Spain each around 1bn€ and Poland has not made any significant pledges for this year as far as I know. And even though there is a budget crisis that threatens the Scholz government, one of the few things they seemingly have been able to agree on is raising the budget for military aid in 2025 to 15 bn€ with possibly another 3bn€ allocated to Ukraine for this years.

If all European countries were "shrinking" from their support for Ukraine like Germany is, than the Ukrainians would be in a much better place right now.

It took them almost a year, no mistake here

You should look up the timeline again. Germany started sending weapons within days to Ukraine, heavy weapons followed in lockstep with the USA and UK and the German systems that really made a difference - Gepards and Iris-T- were being prepared/produced from May on.
Tacitus   
1 day ago
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@pawian

That was a major mistake.

Agreed. But it was not part of a fiendish ploy as suggested.

@Ironside

Why the EU should follow your lead?

Because leading means also being willing to shoulder the burden and the costs of the endeavour. There is still a yearning amongst many Germans to become a large Switzerland - trading while staying out of conflicts and let other handle the rest. We were uncomfortable with leading during the Euro crisis but we had to because Germany was financially solvent, and the smaller countries were happy to hide behind us and let us deal with the Greek government. Whatever you may think of Merkel, she did not go to Minsk because she wanted to impose herself, but at the direct request of the Ukrainian president while the leaders of the countries that should have been there due to their commitment to the Budapest were either considered insufficient or had no interest.

If you are unhappy with Germany's preeminent role in the support of Ukraine (behind the USA of course), then your real criticism should be aimed at the countries who in your eyes should lead, yet contribute not enough to do so.

You can't deny that in the course of those talks

I can because that is something the German government constantly rejected to even contemplate. Putin wanted a second Yalta since 2014 in which he could divide Europe into such spheres. That is what he is still after. But he does not want to negotiate with Germany or any other European country, because those are not peers of Russia in his eyes. He wants to talk with the USA and China.

Germany tried the Normandy talks, in which Ukraine could negotiate with Russia as equals, backed to some (in hindsight too little) support by France and Germany.

This thinking in spheres of influence is something German politicians and the public generally abhors. The only strategic designs regarding Eastern Europe was a) to support the former Warsaw pact members in their democratic transition in order to be finally "surrounded by friends" in our history and b) try to do the same with Russia. With Russia the mistake was that it would be willing to abandon this kind of thinking for the right economic incentive.

Realistically, instead of having great designs it is more likely Merkel did not pay too much attention to Eastern Europe because there were seemingly more pressing concerns. The Euro crisis threatened the existence of the EU (it is easy to forget that shortly after Minsk II, there was another showdown with the Greek government over a potential Grexit), then came the refugee crisis followed by Covid. In hindsight those look almost trivial compared to what we are now facing, but that is not how they appeared back then.

and it was a correct assumption that Germany wouldn't lift a finger even if they could

Sure, but that is a charge that can be laid at pretty much every other country. Even the countries that had once guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity did very little to support Ukraine after 2014, and they did not have the foreign political tradition to not send weapons into combat zones.

Ukraine for the first year as Putin predicted.

Which year do you mean? Ukraine did not receive any practical aid from countries in 2014 and in 2022 Germany reversed course within days after the full-scale invasion and sent weapons to Ukraine.
Tacitus   
1 day ago
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@Ironside

Come on that was the German plan too

The plan was - based on our experience with the SU - to build a partnership between Russia and Europe that would incentivize the former to become a participant in the European peace order and to give the latter cheap energy. The plan itself wasn't bad and close economic interdependence had worked in the past, as evidenced by the EU. The fatal flaw was that we did not recognize with whom we were dealing. Again based on our experience, we though that after the evident failure of their imperial projects, the Russians would jump at the chance of economic prosperity like we did. If you told most Germans back then that Putin would start a war of agression - never mind the atrocities against Ukrainians - that would claim the life and health of up to 500k Russians, cost Russia more than 1tn€ down the line and make it beholden to China. We knew such stupidity from our own past, but assumed that we were unique in that regard. Naive in hindsight, but that happens if you have political leaders who were socialized in post-war Germany. At least now we have other references to base our decisions on. I suppose we need to thank Putin somewhat for helping us get past our complexes to some degree... .

Germany is indirectly responsible for a war on the European continent

Nonsense. I mean yeah, if you want assign responsibility to all those who had energy ties with Russia, then you can include Germany in a long list - which also includes Poland - of countries that are supposedly responsible.

But politically speaking? I'd say we should look first at the countries who convinced Ukraine to surrender its' nukes, did next to nothing when Russia first invaded in 2014 and then very little until the full scale invasion in 2022. Should Germany have listened to the warnings from the Eastern European countries particulary after 2014? Absolutely. But it is also a simple fact that there were no particular diplomatic obligations that Berlin had towards Kiev. We never guaranteed their independence, were never in an alliance with them and are not their neighbours.

Something to also keep in mind is that common perception of the Ukrainian army is now markedly different from what it was before 2022. Under the impression of the heavy Ukrainian defeats on the battlefield in 2014/15 it was widely assumed even by experts that Ukraine stood no chance against Russia in a full-scale war. Thus the thought that a diplomatic solution, even one that favoured Russia was ultimately beneficial for Ukraine as well. Which let us be clear here, it would have been. Minsk II would certainly have been preferable to this war, even if the war should end with a complete Ukrainian victory down the line. But again, the mistake was assuming that Putin would make a ration cost-benefit analysis instead of being led by his imperialist assumptions.

This assumption also led the countries who did send military aid to Ukraine before 2022, hence their focus on weapons that could be used in a guerilla war.
Tacitus   
1 day ago
News / THE ARMY OF POLAND - THE REALITY [436]

Besides if Poland is worried about their "share", they can always restart donating modern weapons to Ukraine.

It is nice to know though at least one part of our industry is still cutting edge.
Tacitus   
2 days ago
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@Novichok

There is an entire Wikipedia article about this topic.

During World War II, Soviet prisoners of war (POWs) held by Nazi Germany and primarily in the custody of the German Army were starved and subjected to deadly conditions. Of nearly six million that were captured, around three million died during their imprisonment.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_atrocities_committed_against_Soviet_prisoners_of_war

Nothing we can do about anymore. What we can do however is to help the great-grandchildren of many of those victims to avoid a similar fate by the Russian invaders by arming them appropiately.

Treatment of prisoners of war in the Russian invasion of Ukraine

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treatment_of_prisoners_of_war_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.

You on the other hand are cheering for the Russians.
Tacitus   
2 days ago
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

China is really set on wringing Russia dry.

Russia-China gas pipeline talks hit roadblock over price and supply

China had demanded to pay prices that were nearly identical to Russia's heavily subsidised domestic marks.

offshore-technology.com/news/russia-china-gas-pipeline-talks/?cf-view

Good job Putin. Instead of mutual beneficial partnership with Europe, you are selling your counties' wealth for cheap to China. All in order to finance your ruinous war.
Tacitus   
19 Jun 2024
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@Novichok

There were many Russians begging for their lives when they were in German concentration camps

And many Ukrainians. Russia is currently busy killing those off who survived the camps and lived until today.

google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/21/europe/borys-romanchenko-death-ukraine-intl

Knowing that we are now sheltering some of those poor people in our country, while our donated weapons are protecting those who stayed in Ukraine gives me great satisfaction.

Nacitus should be tolerable as well.

Please do. A great compliment coming from someone like you. Just like Olaf Scholz rarely receives as much positive attention as when he becomes the subject of one of Solovyov's demented rants.
Tacitus   
18 Jun 2024
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

How the mighty have fallen. Putin goes to North Korea, begging for old ammunition from the Stalinist concentration camp. All those concessions to China and North Korea in order to continue the ruinous war.... .

edition.cnn.com/2024/06/18/asia/north-korea-russia-putin-visit-intl-hnk/index.html
Tacitus   
12 Jun 2024
News / Will PiS be happy if AfD wins elections in Germany? [228]

@Novichok

Show some decency for a change and don't compare your misgivings with our liberal societies with Nazi Germany. You are downplaying the suffering of the people who actually had to live through those times.
Tacitus   
12 Jun 2024
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

Rheinmetall to launch production of Lynx IFVs in Ukraine

mil.in.ua/en/news/rheinmetall-to-launch-production-of-lynx-ifvs-in-ukraine/#google_vignette

Who knows, maybe the KF51 Panther will follow later.

Rheinmetall's bold expansionist strategy seems to be paying off. Just a few days ago they opened a maintenance hub for the Marder in Ukraine.
Tacitus   
10 Jun 2024
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@Ironside

My stance is that Poland has done enough for Ukraine

If the war ended in 2022 you'd be right. But imagine the war goes on until 2027. Do you really think that the Polish contribution would be considered sufficient as it is now?

IF that HAPPENS

Unless any of those countries increases its' contribution, than this is going to happen.

@jon357

Certainly every penny that went into their economy from cheap r*SSian

If other countries did the same, sure. And as you probably remember from a previous conversation, the UK could contribute massively from the Russian money it received in the last 20 years.
Tacitus   
10 Jun 2024
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@Ironside

almost two years doing absolutely nothing

What are you talking about? In 2022 started the deliveries of heavy weapons via the Ring exchange program within weeks and the delivery of our own heavy weapons and modern anti-air systems within months. Germany spent more on weapons for Ukraine in 2023 than any other European country. As it stands now it will spend more on weapons for Ukraine in 2024 than the UK, France, Italy, Poland and Spain put together.

out of the blue you are started lecturing others

Poland has not been making any significant weapon pledges for close to a year now. That is hardly out of the clue.

EU is doing is sabotaging

The only actor sabotaging Poland was the previous Polish government. Who thought that undermining its' own judiciary, senselessly antagonizing other EU members and provoking the withholding of EU funds was somehow in Poland's interest.
Tacitus   
10 Jun 2024
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@Ironside

It was, not only tanks when there but also other weapons. Including top-notch modern ones.

Great, but that was 2 years ago. Plenty of time to produce new weapons and send them to Ukraine. Ukraine needs a steady flow of new weapons, and Poland needs to do its' part here.

likes to take credit for what you promised not for what you delivered.

Aside from the fact that the actual deliveries so far are quite enough to be proud off - this war will take most likely several more years. And Germany is one of the few countries that is actively working on supporting Ukraine for years on. Which means ordering and paying for systems whose production may take years, investing into new factories and so on. If Poland announced that it would produce and finance the production of 200 tanks, I'd happily give Poland credit for these even if those would only be ready for delivery in 2 or 3 years. Because chances are, that Ukraine'd still need them by then. And it would help to send a signal to Putin that he can not simply outlast Western support.
Tacitus   
8 Jun 2024
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@Ironside

you send outdated tanks too. Sow what? Seems to be doing a good job.

Sure, but we do not claim that those were a significant sacrifice. Those tanks are useful, but Ukraine needs a steady flow of new ones if it is to prevail in this war of attrition.

Easy to say as it is not your money

Well, Poland did ask for reimbursement from EPF, which is mostly funded by Germany so... .
Tacitus   
8 Jun 2024
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@Ironside

Tanks from our army, ready to use right away!

Yeah, but again just the outdated ones. There was no real expense to Poland since those tanks would have had to replaced anyway in a few years. In fact Poland received some nice reimbursement which they used to buy K2 tanks for themselves. It was a nice deal which benefited both Ukraine and Poland which is great. But that some Poles seem to believe that this was sacrifice enough on their part is laughable considering the scale of this war.

Support for Ukraine generally went through 3 stages. 1. Scrap together what you can spare from your army stocks and send it to Ukraine. 2. Look for old equipment that is in need of repair but could be potentially useful. Repair it and send it to Ukraine. 3. Start producing new weapons and send them to Ukraine. Poland has done well on the first stage and passable in the second and is now failing the third. Which is a Problem because this one just grows in importance.

before sending anything to Ukraine and Poland

I mentioned tanks specifically because I thought Poland wanted to build up its' own tank production line? A big contract like this would surely help with this and the K2 might get some advertisement in the war. As it stands the Koreans are falling behind because unlike the Koreans they can not capitalize on the experience from the Ukrainian battlefield.

And in case you are aware, the German arms industry is in fact producing systems which the Bundeswehr does not yet have. Iris-T, Skynex, RCH 155, Drones just to name a few.

We are a front-line country, we are in possible danger of Russian invasion, not Germany.

That should motivate even more to keep Ukraine in the fight. Nobody says you shouldn't rearm, on the contrary.

Each day the Ukrainians stay in the fight not only buys Poland time. It also weakens Russia and makes them less of a threat. Poland spends 33bn on defence, why not spend an additional 10% on weapons for Ukraine per year? That could boost your defence industry, add to your security since Ukrainians would make good use of those weapons and make the burden sharing easier for the future, especially in case of a second Trump presidency.
Tacitus   
8 Jun 2024
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

I have seen videos according to which the Ukrainians put extra drone equipment into Leopard 1 which have extra room.

They seem to be using them mostly as artillery. For what its' worth, they liked them more than the Abrams because the latter seem to be bad at demolishing enemy fortifications with their gun.

Things might be different if they had more anti-air tanks like the Gepard or Skyranger.
Tacitus   
8 Jun 2024
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@Bratwurst Boy

and hopefully we can iron out that helmet-thing with some better stuff till then!

I am particulary curious about the performance of the RCH 155 and the Skynex systems.

Though sometimes "boring" systems can be just as important. Look at the bridge-laying tank Biber. About to be phased out by the BW, yet it was recently used by the Ukrainians for a counter-attack at Vovchank and survived a direct hit by a drone.

@Mr Grunwald

Germany to switch to a war economy

The beauty is, the West has such an economic edge over Russia that we do not need such drastic measures to outperform it. If every country does its' part, we'll be able to support with more and more weapons.

It also means that while each country contributes, the Ukrainians use all thise weapons together to a tremendous effect.

Poland gave Ukraine 400 tanks and helped them to stay in the fight. The Ukrainians have since then destroyed at least 3100 Russian tanks. Due to this Poland is now in a better position than it would have been if it kept the tanks and Ukraine had fallen within days or weeks.
Tacitus   
8 Jun 2024
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@Bratwurst Boy

but us sending helmets will follow us for awhile

True and Scholz communication is making sure that this image will stick for some time. But there'll be a time when this war is over and a more objective assessment will start.
Tacitus   
8 Jun 2024
News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 12 [439]

@Ironside

he gave Ukraine enough tanks to forum two panzer divisions.

Yeah, old Soviet ones for which he could claim reimbursement from the EU. He was not nearly as generous with the more modern one, and sadly neither have been his successors. If anything, Polish contributions have been disappointing in the last year or so. The war in Ukraine is not a 100m race but a long marathon. Being satisfied with what you did in the first few rounds is not gonna cut it.

Poland started strong and then fell behind, while France started weak and is now trying to make up for it. With increasing success. Poland could do a lot of good with e.g. donating a single of its' Patriot systems, or pay for the production of 200 or so of its' new K2. That would help its' defense industry and Ukraine.