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Election marathon 2018-2020 in Poland [1071]
@Pawian, you switched you opinion quickly from: "Konfederacja doesn't have a chance to get into EU Parliament" to "I hope they will get at least 10%". Ach, the power of public opinion polls :-)
Obviously, the main purpose of the EU Circus elections is to flex muscles and to gain political popularity. The real power comes with autumn Parliamentary elections in Poland.
We don't know the results yet but let's speculate a bit.
PO will get more % of votes in the EU elec. than in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Partly because countryside PiS electorate doesn't care about the EU parliament elections at all, but they will mobilize for autumn elections.
Your hopes and calculations are quite far-fetched. If Konfederacja canibalise Kukiz 15 completely, PiS will have no other option that forming a coalition with Konfederacja who will gain expotential political power thanks to being the only political force that PiS could effectively cooperate with.
Basically PiS will have to grant a few important seats to Konfederacja leaders and agree to some "radical" (in their opinion) postulates such as deregulation of economy, laxing gun laws, much more independent foreign politics, tighter grip on immigration from outside of Europe and more..