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Posts by convex  

Joined: 25 Nov 2009 / Male ♂
Last Post: 28 Nov 2011
Threads: Total: 20 / Live: 15 / Archived: 5
Posts: Total: 3,928 / Live: 3,896 / Archived: 32
From: Wroclaw
Speaks Polish?: un poco...wait
Interests: aviation

Displayed posts: 3911 / page 3 of 131
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convex   
2 Jan 2010
History / Life in communism vs democracy in Poland [234]

Maybe the public US highschools have a lower standard that makes graduation easier than in Germany?

That's post secondary graduates
convex   
2 Jan 2010
History / Life in communism vs democracy in Poland [234]

Pisa has more to do with the quality of teaching than the potential of the pupils

Pisa does however look into socioeconomic background of students. It's not that favorable to Germany.

If you graduate in the US, hell, even if you don't graduate, you can go to college as long as you you're test scores are in line. Student loans and Pell grants are readily available for people from low incomes, my brother is going to school on a Pell grant as we speak. If you managed to screw up in highschool, it's simply a choice if you want to correct that or not. You said it yourself, you have to work a lot harder in Germany if you were already moved to a non university track when you were 13 years old.
convex   
2 Jan 2010
History / Life in communism vs democracy in Poland [234]

You know what makes me happy in general? Learning things, new experiences.

Money isn't everything, but it does make things a hell of a lot easier. Putting money in your pocket while doing something that you love is the point of those options.
convex   
2 Jan 2010
History / Life in communism vs democracy in Poland [234]

What's wrong with paying the bill with a job you actually like because you could chose it for yourself thanks to your education? ;)

I chose a job that I liked that pays the bills plus some and didn't go to uni to do it. It's not either or. You can do something that you love and make good money doing it.
convex   
2 Jan 2010
History / Life in communism vs democracy in Poland [234]

Don't get caught up with materialism and go into debt and be controlled by your possessions.

That's the big one right there. Taking on debt to fund consumption is about as close to voluntary slavery as you can get. This is worrying, as here in Poland it's rampant. Debt destroys people and locks them in a cycle of working crappy jobs to pay off the worthless junk that they shouldn't have purchased in the first place. And for bonus points, it drives up the cost of everything (price at which the market is willing to bear, however artificial, yay).

Consumer debt is the ultimate evil.
convex   
2 Jan 2010
History / Life in communism vs democracy in Poland [234]

You want to tell me the US is not in serious decline? It is.. mostly because of these idiotic decisions made by these babyboomers.

The US is in serious decline because of extensive corporate and social welfare and bad monetary policy. Companies and individuals are dependent on handouts that destroy the level playing field that is needed in capitalism.

Not only do the decisions effect us but also Europe.

Greedy Europeans are to blame for the problems in Europe. European governments fight just as hard to try to prevent needed corrections in the economy. They are just as guilty at keeping people hooked on credit as the US. For bonus points, in Europe, the people that tell us that there is no money for health care, pensions, and infrastructure...the people that tell us that humans are destroying the earth, these same people are telling us to have more kids to support their social ponzi scheme.
convex   
2 Jan 2010
History / Life in communism vs democracy in Poland [234]

Remind me again, where did the biggest economic crisis of the modern times stem from?
Regulated Europe or unregulated US/UK???

The problems in the US stem from regulation, corporate welfare/social welfare, and idiotic monetary policy. Capitalism was trying to fix itself by punishing companies that made bad loans and bringing housing prices back into line. The government responded by devaluing the currency again. A lot of what you guys are calling the business class/capitalist class should have lost all their money. The government somehow convinced people that houses would stand empty and people would freeze to death if they didn't rescue the mortgage backed securities of the banks/pension funds/mutual funds. Instead of letting housing prices drop back to where people can afford them, the government is keeping them high in order to support people that make bad choices. They fed is also in a bad place with interest rates, as ****** banks are so over leveraged, that increasing interest rates would cause them to tumble down, as they should.

The problem is arguably worse in places like the UK, Spain, Greece, and Iceland, which last I checked were in Europe. Public debt as a percentage of GDP is officially higher in a number of countries in Europe (but I don't trust GDP numbers in general, the US and UK have a grossly overstated GDP), including Germany. The social systems are unsustainable, that's why the government is pushing more children during a time in which smaller families would be much more beneficial to the environment and national infrastructure.

Germans never respected anglosaxon management.They prefer management by experienced workers

Bwahahaha. Are you serious? Deutsche Bank, Telekom, Allianz, RWE, Deutsche Post, VW, are all Mckinsey clients...If you look through Sr. Management bios, you'll find quite a few ex Mckinsey employees as well. It's all the same, the current crop of management all practice the same poison, regardless of which country they are from.
convex   
2 Jan 2010
History / Life in communism vs democracy in Poland [234]

So our economy kept equally quiet.

The reason that the German economy is doing well was pointed out in polkakamons post, Germany still produces (less and less every year of course).

I never heard someone state that the US is burdened by to much regulation and welfare...hell you hadn't even a health care till yesterday!!!

Most EU countries have much more of both and still managed to NOT throw the world into a crisis!

Existing regulation in the US wasn't enforced. But seriously, people that invest in something that they don't have a clue about and then lose their ass, boo-hoo. Would you invest $200m in an investment fund that only gave you a single sheet of paper every month stating that you made money? Sound stupid? That's what every last one of Madoffs clients agreed to.

Who was balls deep in packaging and reselling all the crap mortgages? That's right, Deutschebank, Allianz, Dresdener Bank, Munich RE... I still have a hard time seeing how the US "caused" a global crisis. Anyone that invested in crap securites is at fault for their own actions, plain and simple. No need to pass the buck. Learn what your buying.

That detracts from the bigger point though, the idea that there is a deep difference between any of the countries or the banking systems anymore.

Most EU countries come no where near the level of corporate welfare paid out in the US. Regarding healthcare, Medicare and Medicaid cover more people than the total population of Germany.

As far as what you get for your 40% that is paid in taxes...well, AOK has nice buildings in just about every city...
convex   
2 Jan 2010
History / Life in communism vs democracy in Poland [234]

It's still enough to be third even with only some millions of workforce...THAT is efficience (inclusive much welfare and a bulging bureaucracy) ;)

But alas, Germany is slipping away from manufacturing, and into the "service based economy". It's worrying to see the number of manufacturing jobs that have been lost over the last 10 years. That's not efficiency, that's outsourcing. Those Touaregs that are made in Bratislava, yea, they count towards the trade surplus.

So something of your math (welfare + regulations = bad economy) is for the bin!

The welfare system was amazing when there were more people putting into it than taking out of it, lets see what happens when that flips around.

The US is more heavily regulated than Europe, enforcement is just laxer.

The one country in deep **** is one without much welfare and barely any regulations...

China? Singapore? Korea? Or do you mean unregulated non-welfare cowboy states like Iceland, Spain, Greece, and the UK?
convex   
3 Jan 2010
News / Czech drug legalisation threatens Poland [111]

Have they done this to increase tourism...? Their country will become a huge version of Amsterdam , with druggies from every nation wandering all over the place...

They said the same thing about Portugal as well. The Czechs have always been really strong supporters of personal freedom. Look at the gun laws, prostitution laws, and the drug laws. The only thing new here is that they are officially stating what the unofficial policy has been since the revolution.
convex   
3 Jan 2010
Law / Shipping a car from USA to Poland [85]

How long are you planning on staying in Poland? Is your car still covered under warranty? Does it use the same parts as any common hondas? How long have you owned it?

There is an older thread on this with some good information: polishforums.com/law/poland-shipping-car-usa-7022/
convex   
3 Jan 2010
News / Czech drug legalisation threatens Poland [111]

I am all for personal freedom , and if somebody wants to smoke a joint , hell why not , i have done it myself , but to legalise drugs that kill people , and cause them to steal from the rest of us to pay for their drugs is just stupid...

Portugal did it and are seeing a decline in violent crime as well as lower user rates. Keep in mind that trafficking is still illegal and heavily punished.

Every little mom and pop shop in Poland sells alcohol, which is a terrible drug for people that can't handle it.

The drug isn't the problem, it's the individual user. There are responsible users of heroin just as there are responsible users of alcohol. If you commit a crime, you should be punished for it. If you are not hurting anyone else, then it shouldn't be of anyone's business what you do privately.
convex   
3 Jan 2010
News / Czech drug legalisation threatens Poland [111]

Lets go ahead an throw opiates in a nice group of their own...

William Wilberforce
Walter Scott
Picasso
Billie Holiday
Paracelsus
Arthur Conan Doyle
Charles Dickens
William S. Burroughs
Marcus Aurelius
Elizabeth Barrett Browning
Ken Kesey
Ben Franklin
King George V....

Responsible users don't pop up in the media, and they don't pop up in your home stealing your TV. It doesn't mean that they're not out there.
convex   
3 Jan 2010
News / Czech drug legalisation threatens Poland [111]

If somebody breaks into my house and trashes it looking for stuff to steal for drug money , i will be very much cheered up by the fact that some people who use drugs are really nice people...

That is, if they are breaking into your house for stuff to steal for drug money. More than likely that money is going to go towards an addiction to £200 shoes, a playstation, £100 shirts...
convex   
3 Jan 2010
News / Czech drug legalisation threatens Poland [111]

You would not mind then if your kids were going into a shop to buy sweets where heroin was on sale also...?

We don't mind sending our kids to shops with drunks surrounding the place pissing in the corner, so why not?

But I think that most people would be more in favor of a specialty shop, kind of like the partitioned area that quite a few supermarkets here have.
convex   
3 Jan 2010
News / Czech drug legalisation threatens Poland [111]

I agree with you, the crime is breaking into your house, I don't really care why they're doing it, it should be punished. In the UK, they would get a short lockup, in Texas their career would end very quickly.
convex   
4 Jan 2010
Real Estate / How do you comment on "Poland real estate analysis" of the biggest property site [24]

Why does it seem reasonable that house prices will go up, or earnings will go down? The US, as well as most stable economies, have historically had a fairly low income to home price ratio. High gini coefficients and transient workers might explain prices in places like Hong Kong and Singapore. I've always had a hard time figuring out why an apartment in Warsaw costs more than one in New York while at the same time rental yields are much, much lower.

Just take a look at 2009, use that as a basis to do a bit more research.

In vast swaths of the US, housing never went through the bubbles that occurred on the coast. Pulling Austin for instance, median household income was around 50k and houses values were 280k. Nice ratio, real estate has been appreciating at around 3-5%, the rate of inflation (and still is appreciating).

In San Diego, the median household income is 55k and houses are going for 495k with houses appreciating 20-30% a year to get to that level. No surprise that they are coming back down.

I have no personal financial interest in property prices dropping, but I think it's pretty sad when a university professor can't afford to buy a decent house in the city that they teach in. PAIiIZ seems pretty proud that salaries in Poland aren't raising near as quickly as other countries, the government seems to be supporting that to promote investment.

That is the fact :-) Interpretation of that fact lies only in your personal preference.

Asset bubbles deflate the same way that they grew. If it took 7 years to get to current levels, it will take 7 years from them to get back to stable prices.

Just to add a bit, congratulations to people that purchased property to live in and have no problem making their mortgage payments. Even if housing prices drop, you'll still be doing ok in 30 years if inflation stays its course. Speculators...well, housing is just like trading any kind of asset.
convex   
4 Jan 2010
Real Estate / Is there a Real Estate bubble in Krakow? [60]

Someone might want to point out that this forum isn't exactly a market maker...

I think there is a correction in the works because the fundamentals don't add up for me. Try as I might, I can't figure out why apartments in Warsaw cost more than in Frankfurt.

For investors, why are you bullish on property in polish cities? Non emotional answers would be nice.

Here are my worries

rental yields are low
price to income ratio seems skewed
large percentage of foreign denominated mortgages not hedged
low wage growth (attracts foreign capital)
huge increase in prices disproportionate to wage increases
cost to borrow capital at historically low levels

on the plus side

GDP is growing (much faster than wages)
unemployment is low
low mortgage default rate (I assume, really difficult to find actual numbers)
convex   
4 Jan 2010
Real Estate / Is there a Real Estate bubble in Krakow? [60]

The problem is that they do not cost more.

What would you say is an average modest apartment in Warsaw?

50m2 +/-
400-500k?
convex   
6 Jan 2010
Real Estate / Is there a Real Estate bubble in Krakow? [60]

Thanks for your worthy input Avalon

Thanks alot for the builders perspective. It does make sense that new construction would cost nearly as much as it does further west (land and labor being cheaper, materials higher). Does bureaucracy affect the end price here more than in other countries that you've done development in?

Is investing in Polish real estate worth it, Yes if you live in Poland, No if your a outside investor

If you've got a 30 year note, and you plan on living there for the duration, it makes perfect sense. If you're speculating and hoping to get rid of property in 5 years at a profit...maybe not so much.

Slovakia is a good example of what will happen when Poland goes to the Euro. Once Poland no longer has control over its monetary policy, it won't be able to keep labor cheap, which will mean a decline in FDI. Worried about that bit.

Many countries are in EU like United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway and they will
probably NEVER adopt the euro.

Norway isn't part of the EU, UK and Denmark have opt-out agreements, and Sweden isn't meeting the budgetary requirements to adopt the Euro. I don't think Poland has the will to make the sacrifices needed to join the Euro anytime soon (inflation is what is holding Poland back).
convex   
7 Jan 2010
USA, Canada / REFUSED A HOLIDAY VISA TO THE U.S CAUSE IM POLISH [323]

So how come Canada is #4 on the same list (120,000) and yet Canadians don't even need visas to the US?

As a percentage of total visitors, it's much lower than that of Poland. The visa waiver program works on the refusal rate and estimated overstay rate, not absolute numbers.

I assume that the overstay rate is based on estimates that are not provided openly... Basically two arbitrary numbers decide on whether a country is allowed on the VWP. Pretty shady if you ask me. And why the hell doesn't US-VISIT track outbound travelers? Wouldn't it make sense to monitor incoming and outgoing travelers?
convex   
7 Jan 2010
News / 2009 Quality of Life Index: Poland behind Czech, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia.. [52]

because basical needs such as electric, water, hospitals are for free for all?

For who exactly in Turkmenistan? Infant mortality is terribly high. It's such a paradise that it's considered high treason to speak out against working conditions, or criticize any aspect of the government. Need someone to blame? No problem, just pick someone that you fear is growing in popularity and torture them. You want medical care? No problem as long as you live in Ashgabat, glorious leader decreed that all hospitals outside of the capital should be closed. Pension payments to old retired workers were discontinued a few years back, leaving them with no means to get food or medical treatment, pensions have been partially restored after they found out that old people were dying because of lack of food and medicine (who would have thought it?). Free water, gas, and electricity sounds great, except that outside of Ashgabat, it's extremely difficult to get access to the distribution network...Not only due to lack of infrastructure, well, nepotism on a local level is insane.

You know, put your money where your mouth is. Renounce your citizenship to the bourgeois state that is shackling you and your fellow workers, and emigrate to Turkmenistan.
convex   
8 Jan 2010
News / German legal discrimination against Polish speakers [209]

during
their controlled meetings

What happened for him to require controlled meetings? It's kind of hard to have a controlled meeting when you can't control it. Maybe it would be a better idea to look at why there are controlled meetings in the first place. I know a Polish guy here who's kids live in Germany with the mother and they come over often for visits, what's different in this case?
convex   
8 Jan 2010
News / German legal discrimination against Polish speakers [209]

That's not the father's problem if Jugendamt in Hamburg doesn't have Polish
speaking workers or can't hire an interpreter.

It became his problem the moment the moment that he decided to take up residence and marry and live in a country in which German is the official language.

lack of goodwill

Lack of goodwill like someone who speaks German not speaking it because he wants to get recognition for a pet cause of his?
convex   
8 Jan 2010
Classifieds / Motorcycle trip from Poland to South Africa in the fall [25]

Anyone interested in going? Leaving from Poland around September. It should take about 2.5-3 months and cost around €3000 for fuel, food, visas, bribes. We're going to be taking F650GS's, would be a good idea to take the same to cut down on spares that need to be brought along. You can buy them used for around €2500 in good condition. Anyone interested?