News / Polish-Russian war? Drones entering Polish airspace. [243]


Tell this to a Polish soldier, and see if he feels happy about it.

In the same way, in Ukraine there is a huge divide between civilians (who love to talk about mobiks, orcs, and slaves)... and soldiers (who have to fight mobiks, orcs, and slaves).

-//-

As a rule, a soldier anywhere on the planet wants a few simple things:

1) Competent commanders.
2) Adequate opportunity for rest.
3) Confidence that he or his family will be taken care of in the case of a wounding or death.
4) Sufficient supply.

He doesn't need so much, a Korvinus sitting in the rear, telling tall tales about how he can fight 49 Russians off with his bare hands.

News / Polish-Russian war? Drones entering Polish airspace. [243]

@Korvinus

What's this kind of homeopathic dose of soldiers supposed to do?

If Russia doesn't invade (99.99999999% probability) - then you wasted several hundred million zloty for a PR stunt.

If Russia does invade - these 40,000 will end up in a rapid encirclement - faster than you can say "Bialowieza".

-//-

Conclusion - action was performed for retarded reasons like "European Readiness" and "Demonstration of Resolve" that only people in Brussels can comprehend...

To be honest they are geniuses in Brussels, when it comes to the art of inflating some token force rotation into something that sounds instead like Caesar's legions moving into Gaul.

To help them and you Poles, I will come up with some potential "Brussels-approved" labels for the next time you send a 200 person contingent to some Lithuanian airbase:

Security themed:

1) Shield of Unity
2) Operation Eternal Guard
3) Forward Freedom Facility (alliteration!)

More geographically focused:

1) Baltic Sentinel
2) Danube Watch
3) Nordic Horizon
4) Carpathian Resolve

Values oriented:

1) Operation Democratic Shield
2) Guardian of Liberty
3) Lawful Dignity Deployment

Poetic and Wistful:

1) Aurora Spear
2) Praetorian Presence
3) Eagle's Watch

This way... while your soldiers may still feel very stupid, and utterly unprotected by their irresponsible governments - they will at least have nice shoulder patches to gift to their kids.

BB, as talented artist, can handle the graphic design. I suggest a liberal use of eagles, lightning bolts, and that part of the world map which shows the North Atlantic Ocean.

News / Polish-Russian war? Drones entering Polish airspace. [243]


The Gerbera is smaller, and much, much lighter than the Geraniums.

Ukrainian specialists that catalogue and study Russian drones, claim the Gerbera has a wingspan of about 2.5 meters, and that it weighs around 20-50 kilograms. It's powered by a small pusher engine that can be bought in any hobby shop, while its construction is mostly foam/plastic around plywood formers.

Contrast this to the Geran-2 or Geran-3, which has a 3.5 meter wingspan, and a weight of 250 kilograms and 350 kilograms respectively.

The Gerbera is basically a large model airplane, like children make in high school.

It's simultaneously quite big and very light. After hundreds of uses in Ukraine, there is tons of photo proof of them landing largely unharmed, in the same way they landed in Polish fields.

So Velund's idea that the Ukrainian's could be gathering them and fixing them up is quite reasonable.


Given that we are discussing a medium sized KAMIKAZE drone, I don't think the normal fail-safe or return-to-base logic applies.

This is not a big reconnaissance drone with an expensive payload, that you need to be able to land safely if you lose control.

In fact, the Geran-2/3 and Gerbera probably don't possess any safe way of landing at all.

Probably once control is lost, the drone continues flying along the last known GPS waypoints.

If GPS is spoofed, it may switch to inertial navigation (have no idea if the German's possess suitable equipment for this).

If GPS and INS are both f*cked - I think the drone will simply continue to fly straight until it runs out of fuel and crashes.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


Very good, CMS Neuf! You are learning!

News / Polish-Russian war? Drones entering Polish airspace. [243]


Maybe the Ukrainians borrowed a lesson out of their Hizbollah pager operation book...

... or maybe this really was done intentionally by Russia.

Perhaps... it was effective, based on the reactions of everybody in this thread, who is writing "oh gosh, our air defenses really do seem quite weak!".

Maybe Putin's cunning plan, was to make Europeans so worried about their patchy air defenses, that they decide to withhold further shipments to Ukraine and instead arm themselves.

News / Polish-Russian war? Drones entering Polish airspace. [243]


In 2011, Iran spoofed an RQ-170 Sentinel drone into landing in Iranian territory. Until that incident, the drone was unknown, and represented the pinnacle of American stealth and drone engineering. Its capture gave Iran a huge boost in the development of its indigenous drone industry.

So if Iran could do it in 2011, then Ukraine can certainly do it in 2025.


1) Easiest - exploit the command link. Most small drones used in this war, rely on radio links for operator control. If you identify the frequency and protocol used, then break or bypass the encryption - you can inject your own commands.

This is super easy to do with the consumer grade drones used, from companies like DJI - because they use standard and lightly protected links. That's why tens of thousands of these drones are hacked monthly on the frontlines.

Both the Russians and Ukrainians upgrade these drones to encrypted frequency hopping control channels, and this helps, but they are still hackable.

In any case, this does not apply to this recent case in Poland.

2) Harder - GPS spoofing. Larger drones, like the one used in Poland, don't just rely on stick controls, but have autopilots keyed to GPS/GLONASS. By spoofing GPS signals, you can make the drone think it's somewhere else. Instead of realizing it's in Poland, you can make it think it's still making its way westwards toward Lvov.

If you combine spoofing with a loss of data link (by jamming the control channels), the drone may switch into a fail safe mode where it will be even easier to fool.

3) The hardest - This would be some more Israel-level business, involving hacking into Russia's actual ground infrastructure. It could mean inserting malware into the maintenance or mission planning software. Hacking into ground control software. Maybe even exploiting a poorly secured satellite uplink.

In true Israeli fashion - they could have maybe inserted agents at the factory level, who implemented back doors in the software. This seems a bit fantastical, however.

-//-

Finally - it could be as banal as a Ukrainian double agent, quietly sabotaging missions by inserting malicious code. No need to over complicate something, when it just as easily could have been done through some good old fashioned human sneakery.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


Ehrm... what did you say??

A US imposed no fly zone, allowed Serbia to continue fighting for nearly a year - and that conflict still necessitated a political settlement at the end.

A US and NATO imposed no fly zone over Libya, failed to prevent any of the outcomes it was assembled against. Currently, Libya is divided between two halves - one ISIS controlled, and one Russia/Emirati controlled.

Never, in the history of the world, has a no fly zone succeeded in enforcing anything or producing facts on the ground. The only thing that matters - is infantry.

America enjoyed 20+ years of air superiority in Afghanistan - this did not prevent the collapse of the government they had been propping up for twenty years, in the space of two weeks.

Neither did America's dominance over the skies of Iraq, prevent the disasters that unfolded in Fallujah and Mosul.

Neither will America's current posturing off the cost of Venezuela, if it ever turns into an air campaign, force the collapse of Maduro's government.

Air power is nothing, without the ability to follow up on the ground, where you can secure and cement your gains.

News / Polish-Russian war? Drones entering Polish airspace. [243]


This is why Poles are our brothers.

Project of my life currently - is to show Poles that there are minimal differences between them and Russians - however unpleasant it is for Poles to consider this notion currently.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely".

Lord Acton said this in the 19th century.

I think, there are tiers to life:

1) The bottom

2) The middle

3) The top

4) Centimillionaires - for the purposes of the rest, a class of people that has broken free from material concerns

5) Billionaires - enjoying the privilege and status of heads of state, but small heads of state - think Kyrgyzstan or Slovakia. Big security details, private aircraft, self sufficient compounds, and numerous staff. For all intent and purposes - unreachable for the average mortal.

6) Heads of large and important states - all the amenities of a billionaire, plus practically god-like powers of life and death over practically any individual inhabiting this planet of ours. The ability to shift industrial policy, and the lives of hundreds of millions, with a stroke of a pen. The chance to write history, on a daily basis.

I think this sixth rung of power is impossibly intoxicating, and nobody can resist it. If anybody parts with it, only grudgingly, and out of necessity.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


Source: thediplomat.com/2022/06/from-china-with-love-xis-birthday-call-to-putin/

Xi loves Putin. He is everything he wants to be.

The example of Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Ziamin, and Hu Jintao is not attractive to Xi. He wants to be a leader in the mold of Mao. He will not surrender his mandate, and he will occupy all positions of power regardless of established party precedent.

He wants to be a God Emperor like Putin.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


He should not feel bad!

Even in Russia, we think Putin is some kind of demiurge, some Mephistopheles type figure.

We haven't had a guy like this since Stalin, and maybe before. He's a once in a century guy, and on the way to the top he ate many "dragons" that in other countries would be super powerful players (Khodorkovsky, Nemtsov, Kasyanov, Shaymiev, etc).

Putin has spent so long at the top, feeding on impossible wealth, power, and secrets - that he lives on a different plane than the average mortal.

Nawrocki has much time to catch up. Trump wants what Putin has. Xi calls him his "dearest bosom friend" and "teacher". Kim Jong Un says - "Great leader and soulful brother".

Haha!

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


I really want Poland to do well - so I apologize for the wrong comparison.

If us, and Poland, will be at war at some point - I will be very upset with my government. I trust that you would feel the same in my position, and while there's time - do something to prevent anything like that happening.

News / Polish-Russian war? Drones entering Polish airspace. [243]


Same when Russia under Medvedev began buying Western equipment, especially that huge French piece of sh*t that we never received - the Mistral Class helicopter carriers.

Also Iveco fleeced us on the armored patrol vehicles.

Thales sold us thermal vision sights for our tanks, at prices that rivaled the price of the whole tank.

Medvedev was an idiot for more reason than one.

News / Polish-Russian war? Drones entering Polish airspace. [243]


Ukraine definitely does not see Poland as a "silly younger cousin".

It sees Poland as an "avaricious Pan", who sees in Ukrainians only niewolniki and czeladz.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]

@Torq

Nawrocki is definitely a politician in the Putin mold. Putin was the first guy (out of those actually at the wheel) who made friends with ultras, biker gangs, and trade unions.

When I listen to Nawrocki, I feel like I am listening to a young Putin. Romania also had a guy like that, who got barred from running after he won in his first try.

I think Nawrocki and Putin speak the same language.

Working class boys, into healthy living and fitness, and adepts of the traditional societal order.

Nawrocki is constrained by the strait jacket of EU norms and regulations, so he appears a little less unhinged than Putin - but fundamentally it's the same guy, just 25 years younger, and without a spy background.

News / Polish-Russian war? Drones entering Polish airspace. [243]


You will never prove it - because Russian UAVs were used.

Germany has literally, right now, in their custody the man that masterminded the Nord Stream explosions. They still don't want to tie it Ukraine.

Poland had one of the divers, and Germany demanded extradition, but Poland didn't do anything - until the man peacefully left in the vehicle of the Ukrainian military attache in Poland. Unfortunately, the man died afterwards on the frontlines...

Your governments are not stupid. They see Zelensky's game, and they tolerate it - because right now Russia is the bigger threat.

The hope is that you are carefully taking notes, and formulating some pragmatic way of dealing with Ukraine in the future. They are slippery f*ckers...

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


Poland can actually become "dense", unlike the United States or Russia.

This is why anybody who can do maths, knows that Trump's "Golden Dome" is a joke of an idea.

You cannot cover a continent-sized space with air defenses - as Ukraine has been proving with its refinery bombing campaign.

But Poland... Poland can become a big Israel if it invests enough.

Right now it seems very far away from it, given that a drone the size of a Volkswagen Beetle flew through 300 kilometers of airspace without being shot down.


Makes less sense, when you remember the structure of Tusk's coalition, and the fact that PiS has a president now. What we do, makes not only Tusk look weak, but Nawrocki also.

I'm not sure that Nawrocki is drinking champagne tonight - as President, this is an infraction that happened on his watch.

Off-Topic / Random Chat Thread [463]

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News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


I will try to play devil's advocate... and imagine why Russia would do this - though this is hard to do.

1) The Kremlin senses that Donald Trump's patience is running out, and that he soon may throw in his support with the Europeans. Then, this is an attempt to raise the temperature, and simultaneously give pause to Trump (who's actually a very cautious person when it comes to these things), while making Poland doubt the credibility of America's assurances post-Nawrocki visit.

2) Demonstrate to Poland how full of holes their air defense is, and why they should sit down and shut the f*ck up, while various European crazies like Macron and Starmer are putting together stupid coalitions. Why? Because without Poland, any European operation in Ukraine will be a joke. Hungary and Slovakia have already ruled out making their airbases available. This leaves only the Romanians.

3) Put pressure on the Donald Tusk government, as "weak on defense" and "weak on Putin". Thereby providing a boost in the arm, for our conservative-aligned friends in Poland during the next elections. Tusk and Sikorski are annoying, and it would be much nicer to have friendlier people in power - maybe more like Fico and Orban.

4) in a truly 4D chess fashion - show the French and British why they got no business being in Ukraine. If Poland, with some of the densest air defenses in Europe - strengthened since the George W. Bush days, cannot stop a drone from flying 300 kilometers all the way to the Lodz Voivedstvo - then what can France or Britain do?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


How is this non-relevant?

Ukraine possesses eye-watering electronic capabilities - far superior to Poland's, or in the rest of NATO. Of this you can be sure.

As you may know, the majority of Western drones supplied to Ukraine are useless on the battlefield. The lion's share of damage is done by Ukrainian systems, which are often updated on a WEEKLY basis to keep abreast of the pace of progress.

It has become a routine thing, to hack into a drone's video feed - allowing you to see exactly what the enemy sees, in real time.

It's a routine thing, for both sides, to hijack the controls and "land" an enemy's drone. So far, only fiber optic drones are resistant to these kind of takeovers.

It's fully plausible, that Ukraine could take control of 10-20 Russian drones and steer them in Poland's direction.

They have a million and one pragmatic reasons to do this. Russia has no reason to do this, except for very fanciful and imaginative ones.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


I'm not saying it's not us, because I don't know this for a fact, but I would argue that if it is us - then it is either:

A) Accidental

B) A result of Ukrainian GPS/Cell tower spoofing, or other electronic counter measures (some other means of hijacking the drone controls).

The prevailing Ukrainian explanation of what happened, of course a sinister one, is that these drones were "probing" Poland's airspace to better plan potential future attacks.

The debris on the ground, however, does not support this. The Gerbera drones found so far are dummy decoys largely made out of foam, and contain no payload capable of collecting the type of intelligence Ukraine is claiming. The damage they've done, like punching through the roof of a small house, is consistent with a simple kinetic impact.

Why would Russia probe Polish airspace using drones that are not capable of optical/signals/measurement intelligence? Just watch from space, where Polish anti-air sites come online? I'm sure we know already, exactly where each Polish anti air battery is located. It's peacetime Poland, not wartime Ukraine.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


Ukrainian influence operations... They have hundreds of thousands of accounts under their control.

Today, their main newspapers have been discussing NATO's "impotent" response. On Twitter, all their bots are out in force, condemning Polish cowardice - and all the American and European Shiba Inu dogs bark in their support.

The country's leading newspaper, has a front page article discussing the meaning of Article V, and coming up with reasons for Poland's "pathetic" behavior.

Source: eurointegration.com.ua/articles/2025/09/10/7219899/

Last week, Ukrainians were fuming at Duda, because he admitted in an interview that Zelensky attempted to coerce him into admitting the earlier missile strike was Russian (when it was clear to all within 5 minutes that it was Ukrainian).

And before that, they were angry at Germany, for arresting in Italy the Ukrainian captain of the schooner used in the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline. Surprising this... since the Germans are such trembling weaklings that they still refuse to officially tie the two together. Ukraine executed a terrorist attack on Germany's vital national infrastructure, the culprits are in custody, and yet still Germany does nothing. If I was Ukraine - I'd be happy and keep quiet.

The only party that benefits from a Russian attack on Poland - is Ukraine. Follow the money.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


One of the nice aspects of the system that collapsed.

Along with the total detachment from economic reality when planning state investment (like building a high power voltage line for some reindeer herders in the Arctic), the total meritocracy of opportunity was what made the country "great".

Now, America is mostly eating the fruits of our investment, through various tech founders and neurosurgeons.

It's also why China is set to be a greater power than America.

The Soviets, and the Chinese in their own country, empowered hundreds of millions of people that in the former system would never get a second glance.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


Russia, since time immemorial, was a place of two separate countries. One for the "Muzhiki", or "average man", and one for the "Gospoda" (gentry).

The type of hatred and derision reserved for the "average man", was worse than the Southern plantation owners had for the Negr0es.

We literally kept our own kin in chains of slavery, until 1861. Not blacks from Africa, or Jews from Spain - but our own people.

Many Russian authors wrote about this disgusting aspect of national life, from Saltykov-Shedrin, to Tolstoy.

It's why the Bolsheviks could storm into power, and use past sins as a catch-all excuse for the horrors they unleashed in turn.

-----

As you probably know, Russia's literate classes for a long time didn't even speak Russian at home. Only French and English and German.

It's good, that Poland did not absorb at least this aspect of the Russian way of organizing society.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


Since August 21st, yes :)

Writing that word, was a bit weird for me.

A lady from the motherland. Never lived in America (though speaks English quite well).


He was too good for this forum, and we didn't cherish him enough.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


Two things, from my experience:

1) Audiobooks are not half as terrible as I thought they would be. Recently finished listening to Dostoyevsky's Demons, after about 10-12 long walks. It works nicely - walking around, and listening to a book.

2) Since you are an American - again audiobooks - but also in the car. During those long road trips, it works nicely to keep you awake, and it's easier than having to flip through podcasts every 20-30 minutes.

Most of my reading still happens at night. During my private time.

My wife calls it my "revenge insomnia". That is, I suffer from insomnia, because I am a person that absolutely needs his personal "alone" time - so I get my alone time after everyone else goes to sleep - as revenge.

As a result - I'm a perpetually irritable person, and always angry. People don't give me the freedom I need, so I get it anyway, at the expense of my sleep and my health.

In this way - I read from 11 PM, to about 2:30-3:30 am. I always promise myself - one hour and no more, but then I end up reading for 3-4 hours.

It's when I feel happiest.

In the morning, morning Bobko of course hates the night Bobko. But what can be better than reading a book?! It's a chance to live a whole life, through different eyes, in a matter of a few hours! Who in their right mind would refuse this kind of magic?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


My little brother, with whom I have a 16 year difference (same mom, same dad), is in his second year at NYU now - in their engineering school. His friend, and the smartest guy in the class (according to my brother), is a guy named Antony from Gdansk.

This guy destroys even the Chinese and Indians with his math skills.

So at least within the tiny example of my own family, Poles are certainly not "inferior".


You are dealing with the children of Russia's intelligentsia. These are the only people that might move to Poland, to avoid the war and provide better opportunities for their kids.

I'm fairly certain you don't have the kids of plumber San Sanych, or cab driver Pal Palych.

Their parents were probably already pretty smart folks, and their kid is a product of that upbringing.

At the same time, your Polish students probably represent a more true cross section of Polish society.

So not fair to compare kids of Russian dissidents, with average Polish kids.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


They used to say Russia was the most reading nation in the world. I believe that since then countries like Thailand and China have taken us over.

Still, 9/10 Russians report that they read regularly.

Source: themoscowtimes.com/2018/10/01/9-in-10-russians-read-books-poll-says-a63038

My dacha library is the typical Soviet library:

1) A huge series of ZhZL books (ЖЗЛ - Жизнь Замечательных Людей). These books always make me laugh. They write about people like Timurlane or Martin Luther, on the large part seriously, but then every few paragraphs they will write something like:

"As Timur looked over his assembled troops, he thought of the challenges ahead", or "On that day, Martin Luther walked to his home, consumed in thought."

Never understood these unnecessary belletristics, but they seem to be a feature of Soviet biographies.

2) A 200 book series, called "World Literature Library" (Всемирная Библиотека Литературы). I think most Soviet houses own this collection, if they hadn't used it for kindling in the 1990s. This is quite good - and features translations by people who were great authors in their own right.

3) Great Soviet Encyclopedia. Many books, also written by committees of famous academicians and professors.

4) Collected works of Lenin.

5) Marx and Engels, and like ten books which provide commentary on those books.

Nobody wanted this stuff in the house anymore, so it went to the Dacha, which is a perfect place to read anyway. There's never time in the city, to sit down with a book for 10-12 hours.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


I was at my parents' lake cabin this August, and was browsing the library - and saw a book I loved when I was a kid - "The Headless Horseman" by Mayne Reid (Майн Рид).

I then thought, for the first time ever - why the hell are there two books about headless horsemen? Washington Irving's "Legend of Sleepy Hollow", and then this guy's book? Could they not come up with more original material? Is it maybe, even the same story, just adapted for different audiences?

I immediately googled Mayne Reid, and realized he's not some German, but an Irishman that spent most of his life in the United States. His full name was Thomas Mayne Reid.

Started reading his Wikipedia profile, and was surprised to read the following:

"While Reid's novels have become almost completely forgotten in the Anglosphere, they have remained popular in Eastern Europe and particularly in Russia (ever since the Tsarist era), being considered a part of the canon of Western literature and being published under the category of "World Classics" along with Jack London and James Fenimore Cooper."

Fascinating... how that works. In the former Soviet Union, every person has heard of Mayne Reid, but in America nobody has. Why?

Steinbeck is at least considered a giant in both places, but with this Reid fella - it's very lopsided. Part of the school program in Russia, but completely forgotten in America.

To a lesser extent, I think it applies to Jack London as well. In Russia, White Fang and Call of the Wild are mandatory reading for young people. Whereas in America I don't hear him being discussed as much.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1109]


I think this is the last war in white countries where you could ride that wave.

It works only on people from 16 to 40 years old.

When the white world reaches an average age of 50, no amount of hysteria will get people excited about war.

I'm 36 now, and one of the last things I want to do, is leave everything behind and go sit in a trench with water up to my ankles.

War is a young man's game.