News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

That's the problem I think. Real estate here is largely price dirven by the real estate agents telling these owners the "value". So owners in certain markets have unrealistic values placed on certain properties. The real estate market here IMO opinion is very inexperienced when it comes to judging market values and what is actually a salable item and what isn't. When an apartment is listed for about 14000/M2 and it has not been remodeled in 30 years, but the agent determines the value on "comps" in the new buildings around this apartment, you have unrealistic values in many places. This is simply a disservice to the current owner. Its done this way because the buyer is paying the agent, so the agent tries to soak the buyer. When it should be the seller paying. Backward.

For instance; I laughed at a guy who wanted to try to sell me the "ventilation" he had installed for his restaurant to open. Even though it couldn't be removed he thought the completion cost was actually the value of the required equipment for him to operate previously. No depreciation, nothing. Completely ignorant that the hood was over 5 years old, and a replacement could be bought new for less than 2000 pln. The restaurant is currently closed, making no money, so its not even an ongoing concern. I actually laughed in the realtors face not his, but he saw me laugh. Now the same guy is trying to trade his restaurant, and over priced lease for a used car!

There will be a lot of empty store fronts and restaurants in Krakow this summer that's for sure.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

Not interested in Warsaw market, but thank you for the offer. Going to stick in the south, Krakow or Katowice. I have 4 places I am keeping an eye on now. All turn key. The longer they sit the better IMO, and 3 have already dropped in price in last three weeks, two owned by Italians in Italy. Though the recovery will be slow, people always eat and drink, and eventually the tourists return.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

If property sits vacant that long, then they are not very good business people. I like making money, not sitting on investments that aren't turning profits. When asked by a real estate agent why I was so passionate about buying a restaurant, I responded I am not passionate about restaurants, I am passionate about opportunity and making money. People with cash on hand, who are ready, will be able to take advantage of this market.

Sure, banks will reposes as soon as they can. But young people will want to get some of their investment back before they lose it all. Young people think differently than the people my age and up. They are a little quicker to cash out. The NASDAQ and DOW have proven that to be true. I suspect the same will prove true for those who look hard enough for deals here.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@delphiandomine

Actually I looked at the building and plenty have not been sold.

When looking at the current inventory, some of which have been listed for 6 or more months, those prices have been coming down. I have been tracking this market for two years, and the growth was and remains completely unsustainable. Coupled with a mass exodus of transient workers over this crisis and you will have owners with investment property scrambling in a few months.

Remember, most investors don't own dozens of properties, they own one or a few to create a nice monthly income. Many are bought on mortgage by younger people speculating in the market. Those people are now unemployed.

All I know is realtors are calling and emailing. They know inventory is very high, and buyers are few. Eventually those with cash will break those without it, it happens all the time. This will be no different the longer this crisis goes on.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

You may be right. Maybe they wont sell at a loss. I will look at it the other way though. While this virus rages on in other countries and Europe recovers, tourism will not come back for months. Unemployment will continue to rise for at least three months after this event, on this continent and North America. Migrant Ukraine workers will not come back right away to fill the rental market. They will have spent their money on living in Ukraine, so service industries will also have a hard time recovering.

There is no quick stimulus that rescues a global economy. When a global event happens, this will take a year or years to recover from. When that happens, and people need money to eat and pay their own bills, they get rid of investments. Gold and valuables will come first. Real estate will come too. When there are only a few buyers, and too many sellers, people will bring prices down.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

I will use Krakow as an example because I have been tracking the over saturated market for two years. Prices were stagnant until this event for the last 18 months. Zero growth in retail pricing. That alone, will eventually trigger an downward trend. Prime properties on rynek or something will always remain high. There is a new building in my neighborhood that is all but empty. Other buildings a few blocks away with serious vacancies for rental market, and prices already coming down.

Krakow has far too many buildings under construction that are scheduled to finish this year. Couple that with about 2 million Ukraine leaving Poland rental market to head home in the last three weeks, and you have a a crater forming that can not be filled.

Most of these rental properties are mortgaged by their owners, and renters are paying the mortgage. That is until there are not enough renters, and people cant afford the rent. In Krakow it will be worse than 2008. I will bet on a 15 to 20 percent market correction on non commercial real estate in the next 12 months. Commercial will go down too, but not as much. That said, if investors arent spending money, commercial other than retail space is going to take a beating.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

Cash is always king. Good times or bad. Those who prepare for these kinds of opportunities come out far ahead.

Fixed costs of rent will plummet in Poland. Prices already going down. Several places I looked at months ago, the real estate people are emailing begging for an offer. The over saturated housing market is about to get deeply cut. Developers who are not prepared are going to get killed. Here in Krakow it will be a buyers market come May 1.

Being a real estate agent, or holding a bunch of vacant property at this time is about the worst position you can be in. The longer this goes on, the more people need to sell to survive personally.

Some people call me a negative person because I always look for a bottom or worst case scenario. This is worst case scenario like never seen since the Depression, and will make 2008 look like a carnival.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@johnny reb

Bringing USD over here in bunches since March 3. Love getting over 4 pln for 1 usd

Where there is problems, there are also opportunities. I almost bought a restaurant in January, but owner would take my offer that was 20K less than asking price. Funny now when its still on the market for less than what I offered three months ago. Cant wait till May to go back to him.

Language / Learning Polish but not focusing on the grammar, good idea? [37]

I spent 8 months learning at a school. Polish grammar made me crazy, and all I really learned were the names of things in every day life. Until I got a native speaker teacher I struggled to express myself. I still struggle, but not nearly as much as I did. Native speaker is the way to go. But if you need to take a language test, you will need to know the grammar as well.

Work / A young Dutch man moving to Krakow-tips for work, living etc..... [38]

@pawian
Not trying to convince anyone. When a thread thats been dead nearly 4 years is made active, thats someone trying to convince someone of something.

Work / A young Dutch man moving to Krakow-tips for work, living etc..... [38]

@pawian
I live here. People aren't wearing masks very often. Visibility has only been bad a few times this winter. You cant smell the burning like in years past. Neighbors are turning each other in when they burn. Katowice, is much worse than Krakow these days. While it hasn't snowed, its been cold enough, that if people were going to burn they would be burning.

Work / A young Dutch man moving to Krakow-tips for work, living etc..... [38]

@pawian
The air in Krakow has been very goo almost all winter. Most of the burning has stopped. Go to Nowy Targ though....yikes

News / Why is Poland so hostile against Germany? Do they realize how their reparations rubbish damages relations? [510]

@Rich Mazur "The problem is that temporary workers do not make the country stronger. Just the opposite. They depress wages and take the money they earned with them which is imports and, as such, make the country weaker, as opposed to exports."

The most economically intelligent thing easily said regarding temporary workers on this site. While i generally disagree with a majority of what is said by Rich, this is an absolute truth. Clearly demonstrated by Poles themselves when working abroad, living frugally, and sending money home. This is neither a "left" or "right" statement, but an economic fact.

On topic though, anyone who doesn't understand why Poles, those i have met anyway, a great majority of them, have not, and will not forget Germany and its aggression. They still fear Germany may try something again, and do not trust Germans. This I don't think will ever change.

This past summer, while having a coffee on Rynek in Krakow, a table full of older German women, was openly stared at with distaste simply by speaking their language loudly and Poles could hear. The attitude is simple, spend your tourist dollars, go home, and please don't come back unless you are spending more money. Germans, I would opine are just as much not welcome as Africans.

Genealogy / Second gen Polish-American with little exposure [45]

@Miloslaw
When I first moved here, it was a struggle. That said, it was simply my not knowing enough. I should have been better prepared and known more than a few words to order drinks and dinner with. I go to a language lessons regularly every week, with a native speaker, and I did 8 months in school twice a week to learn grammar and pronunciation. I still struggle, just not as much.

@Paulwiz
Try learning some Polish. If you don't, people will really question the sincerity in which you are making this effort. My experience is that native Poles in general are suspicious of any foreigner even when claiming good intentions. This is from locals, and government officials alike. You really need to be able to demonstrate sincerity in your reasons for being in Poland if you want to learn things. Learning some basic language skills will demonstrate that. People I met a year ago, now see me differently having gotten to know me and seen the effort I have made. Doors opened and assistance came based on that.

Genealogy / Second gen Polish-American with little exposure [45]

@Miloslaw
Actually the people I meet that are under 40 are more than fluent enough to discuss very important subjects, history, architecture and things of this nature in great descriptive detail. English in Poland is very common now, except of course with those over 50 and in some very small villages. I go to a lot of cities in Poland for work, and do not have a problem. Smaller places like Sanok, or Nowy Targ, Nowy Sacz, and places like this, you will need a least a few phrases and base understanding to get by.

Genealogy / Families from Poland - finding out their names prior to immigration? [6]

geneteka is where I found the last critical document I needed. Great site!

Law / Polish Citizenship by Descent Question - Polish Citizenship Acts [36]

I am actually going through this process now. Great Grandparents came to USA in 1917. With all documentation, birth certificates, and official translations of USA documents, Citizenship can be obtained. It takes a little time, and all documents must be in order, but its not too difficult if you have a good attorney. Its not like a foreigner applying for a new citizenship, it is a recognition of citizenship application, and clerks treat them a little differently. Particularly if you can demonstrate existing ties to Poland, such as visiting here, owning property, owning a business, etc.

Work / Self-employed American living in Poland? Is it possible? [54]

In the classic sense in which the saying "American Dream" was developed and popularized in 1931, yes. While I personally lived the dream and was very lucky in business, it is not that way for most people. Poland, in my professional opinion, offers much greater opportunity for success because it is still a developing market. Where as USA is largely developed and the entrepreneurial spirit may be alive but cost prohibitive for most. By Polish standards, making 100K USD per year makes you a very wealthy person, and US standards you are middle class. If you know how to make money, Poland offers significant opportunity as well as tax advantages.

Work / Self-employed American living in Poland? Is it possible? [54]

I have a 66sq meter flat 10 minutes walk from Rynek in Krakow in a great quiet neighborhood, secure building, with utilities, internet, ect total expense is 3000 pln monthly. The housing market is coming back to earth in Krakow and in Poland in general. Still lots of building going on but a lot of inventory available and lots of deals to be made.

Currency fluctuation isn't a big deal. But simply transferring funds monthly is not the way to go. If you want residency, you have to have a reason, and on top of the reason you need to show income, health insurance ect. If you don't have Polish roots, whats the reason? If it is because you want to develop your business and pay taxes in Poland, then great, but you still need to file the right applications with the right documents.

I commuted every two weeks to Poland from USA for a year, have a very successful company in USA, Polish ancestry, and still it took 6 months to get residency while working with the best attorneys you can hire.

Polish authorities still find it hard to believe anyone wants to leave the USA because of the "American dream" all Poles were told about. This is a real roadblock for some people in positions of authority to get over.

You need a real plan. Start by getting an attorney, and then visit the country for two weeks in a rented flat to see how life is. Don't be a tourist, work every day, shop, cook, and try to live a normal life for two weeks. That will give you a real idea if you can pull it off personally and not just financially. With the holidays ending, now is the perfect time.

USA, Canada / The proper behavior an American should show when visiting Poland [159]

Pretend you are mute? Don't act like your from USA? A short list...Don't talk politics unless you want to embarrass yourself. Don't talk about American Football. Don't act as though you expect everyone to speak English. Learn some simple Polish words and phrases and use them, locals will appreciate the effort.

Work / Self-employed American living in Poland? Is it possible? [54]

Everything depends upon going to Poland with some money to begin with. Setting up a company, and producing a profit in year one above 60K PLN will assure residency for at least 3 years. 1500 PLN per month for ZUS, 800 PLN or so for accounting, plus what ever you pay yourself. You can easily live a nice comfortable life as a single person on 24K USD annually. If you are earning more, or course its better. There are plenty of good real estate opportunities outside of the major cities. I have a friend in Katowice who just paid 150K PLN for a very nice flat about 10 minutes outside of the city. Like anything, planning and being prepared is key.

Work / Self-employed American living in Poland? Is it possible? [54]

I am an American living in Krakow. It can be done. You will need some money to get started, but its a fairly smooth process. You don't apply for a Visa, that's a mistake. Your company is not Polish and can not obtain a Visa for you. You will need temporary residency which you can get as a business person who owns a business in Poland. This will take a couple thousand USD. If its Krakow, I can recommend my attorneys who successfully got me through the process. Message me if you want more info.

Law / Closing an inactive company in Poland (limited liability company) [13]

@Abd10
Youre better off selling it to someone for a few dollars and getting your name off of it. I may know someone who would be interested if the price is right. DM me

News / How could PiS better spend billions instead of 500+ ? [280]

Tax and spend is what has the USA in the position it is in. Once you get in so deep, there is no amount of cutbacks that can get you out.

News / Scandals, conflicts, tensions, arguments - real life examples from Poland [543]

@Dirk diggler
Of course now we go to childish behavior and name calling. Not exactly how an intelligent business leader would react. Maybe I should update my profile since my Polish has improved considerably thanks to language school.

Intelligent discourse with you clearly will never take place because you lack the key ingredient.

News / Scandals, conflicts, tensions, arguments - real life examples from Poland [543]

@Dirk diggler "Same principles apply worldwide in capitalist countries."

Indeed. Principles are theory and theory works anywhere until its put into practice and found not to work. Poland business practices are nothing like USA. The only exception being that both countries have their own currency.

I am sorry to hear you have to have someone drive you around to collect cash and checks. That usually happens when people don't want to pay you. I just sit in my office while people pay in advance on line. Have a nice day.

News / Scandals, conflicts, tensions, arguments - real life examples from Poland [543]

@Dirk diggler
Owning a business in USA is not in Poland. Wroclaw is not indicative of any other part of the country either. I deal with big companies, those employing a minimum of 500 in most cases, and several employing thousands. Those CEO's and their HR counterparts are already talking about hiring freeze's today. In USA, where I also employ people, those I work with are still not hiring full time employees because of the increased insurance costs associated with them.

Quality employees in Poland isn't really a problem with the education system. Jobs are filled rather quickly, you stated as much several times. If anyone believes a nearly doubling of minimum work contracts wont crush the hiring and growth of a country, then they really haven't tried to pass increased costs on to the consumer before.

News / Scandals, conflicts, tensions, arguments - real life examples from Poland [543]

@Rich Mazur
Great point. In Krakow and other cities, the real estate market is slowing and starting to decline in some areas. While it is nice when there is a buyers market, it does not stimulate more investment. Gdansk is another city where real estate is starting to trend down.

When speaking with other decision makers in business yesterday, not one of them was excited about having to raise prices to cover rising costs. Not one of them was happy to pay more into ZUS the way ZUS is being operated financially.

The service industry will remain insulated simply because of tourism in major cities, and they a non typical employees. They are not on contracts and work for tips. Manufacturing on the other hand would be crushed. Tourism will not drive the Polish economy, just as it wont drive the US economy.

News / Scandals, conflicts, tensions, arguments - real life examples from Poland [543]

@Dirk diggler
This is where your argument becomes nonsensical. Firstly, pointing out that you have an MBA doesn't impress people, it shows you have an inferiority complex. Second, I never supported PO and paid no attention to daily politics in Poland until I moved here. Other than historical Politics there wasn't much need to for me.

Arguing the minimum wage increase wont bother employers is ignoring the facts of forced labor cost increases damaging business in the United States. Remember how increased employer costs with Obamacare cause employers to not hire full time employees?

As a business owner for more than 25 years, in multiple sectors, what effects the bottom line is what is considered first. Forced cost increases will immediately slow new business development and will definitely slow growth.

The reason the Ukrainians are here is because they are leaving the Ukraine for work that Poles typically wont accept. They are leaving the Ukraine for a better life here in Poland. They are not a catalyst for economic growth if this wage hike takes place.

Reading the news and forming an opinion is not the same as actually living in the country and experiencing what is really happening on the ground.

@mafketis
I live in Cracow Centrum. I went through the residency process and am going through the citizenship process. Pretty sure I have a good idea on what is going on here with immigration.

News / Scandals, conflicts, tensions, arguments - real life examples from Poland [543]

@Dirk diggler
Spending money they don't have? Giving money away as social welfare and bribery to keep people having children and staying in Poland. This is what it is. But how long will the social welfare bribery last?

Latest proposal in the news yesterday was raising work contract monthly minimum from 2250 pln per month to 4000 pln per month, thus also increasing monies paid to ZUS that can be diverted and pay for these social welfare programs. Meanwhile it discourages people from hiring, starting new business, and discourages foreign investment. This is the economic growth policy of PIS.

Lets not get into the inflation it would trigger based on automatically increased operation costs passed on to the consumer. Poles think food is getting expensive now? Wait until this passes, if it passes.

While I like the protections PIS has in place for immigration and these things, having gone through the process, the economic policies are worse than any democratic social welfare policies in the USA.