News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

The weakest and most inconsequential player in this whole picture is Iran's pathetic army - the Artesh.

They have been completely neutered, with their balls sliced off.

They don't have an opinion about anything, and no one asks them for one.

Their funding is a fraction of the funding of the IRGC, and they have no businesses they own which they could use to create patronage networks.

Just good old military people, that don't care neither about Israel nor about nukes.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

So having established that the Ayatollah Khamenei is not in favor of nuclear weapons, but rather wants to stay just below the threshold to maintain strategic ambiguity - then who does? I'm not sure, but let's go down the list.

Radically anti-Zionist civilian governments. One has to note that there is not one in power right now.

Hardline members of the IRGC. This I'm less inclined to believe, because these guys have the most to lose. Some experts estimate the amount of businesses the IRGC controls in Iran is such that the annual revenue exceeds $20 billion. Why would these guys try to destroy the goose that lays the golden eggs? Iranian sepoys are not stupid.

Fringe clerics with radicalized bases. This is more... concerning. It is known that Iran's establishment has trouble on both ends. From liberals, and from hardliners. At the moment the liberals seem to be mollified, and instead the hardliners are in ascendancy. Thanks to what? Thanks to Israel's unprovoked attack.

How does the Ayatollah ward off hardliners? By becoming more hard line himself. He's done this in the past by helping Ahmadinejad into power, and then regretted it bitterly.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


You keep going on and on about Mullahs, but all it shows is how uninformed you are about modern Iran.

Ayatollah Khamenei is THE NUMBER 1 REASON Iran still does not have a nuclear weapon.

He has spoken extensively about the immorality of nuclear weapons, and has placed a fatwa on their development. The Revolutionary Guards, and the civilian foreign ministers always reference the Ayatollah's fatwa, when arguing why they are not weaponizing.

Iran has a complex society. It's an Islamic theocratic democracy (if you can imagine such a thing).

It has a civilian government, which is elected and runs 99% of normal day-to-day life. It is these democratically elected civilian governments which have been sometimes problematic, not just for the West but even for the Ayatollah. None more so than the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Hanging gay people from cranes, whipping young people for immodest dress, kidnapping people off the street for other perceived moral vices - this is what Ahmadinejad was all about. After a while, it really started grating on the Iranian population. Then it exploded into nationwide protests that lasted a year, following an election that was suspected to be rigged against Moussavi - the moderate opposition candidate.

The leader of the opposition, in many ways, was not Moussavi but another Ayatollah, of quite moderate views. The Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri. It was the most real threat to the Islamic Republic since its founding. The so called Green Movement, was a backlash against the extremism of Ahmadinejad, and his policy of permanent confrontation with the West.

Eventually, Ahmadinejad's downfall was orchestrated by the Ayatollah himself. He has since spoken about the dangers presented by radicals, and has been a good partner to the much more moderate governments of Raisi and Pezeshkian.

Nobody remembers Ahmadinejad in Iran anymore, except to curse his name.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

I take it back - I don't want them to be destroyed, but it would be nice if at least they disabled them to the extent where they can't occupy the Golan Heights and Southern Lebanon Willy-nilly.

That would be nice!

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

I hope Iran will destroy Israel.

For you history nerds above, that discuss why Iran and not Persia...

The word "Iran" though ancient, was brought back into the popular milieu by the Ilkhanid Mongols, under a grandson of Hulegu.

The Ilkhanids (who were opposed to our Mongols - the Golden Horde, on account of their pitiable Islamism), were the first to apply this supranationalist label to this geographic territory. To make it easier to control. The later Timur's, Saffavids and Qajars found it useful and continued it.

If Europe has the Peace of Westphalia, then the East has Genghis Khan - that set most modern boundaries.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Preemptive strikes worked fantastically well in Iraq and Libya.

Saddam and Ghaddafi are dead - and there are no more problems in the world since.

Jokes aside - this is exactly what Mr. Donald Trump was elected on.... He is breaking his promises.

His staunchest supporter - Steve Bannon - says there will be a showdown within MAGA over this bullshit.

He says - Israel is "Israel First", and we should be "America First". I agree with the guy.

No more eternal wars.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

I noticed Iran has been hitting Israeli targets with much greater efficiency and accuracy these past 24 hours.

If it's not the Iranians putting themselves back together, then I hope it's Russia and China offering support.

Iran just lost its top three commanders on the first day of the Israeli strikes. The chief of the general staff, the head of the IRGC, and their chief nuclear scientist.

I'm sure the Ayatollah is disoriented, and not sure who he can rely on. The three men killed possessed deep and specific knowledge, and without them Iran is substantially adrift.

It should be the job of Chinese and Russians to offer comradely help in this moment. Dust off and shake out the Iranians from their state of shock. Give them a reason to believe in themselves again.

They are a great nation, with a glorious history. They cannot be allowed to be defeated by this upstart organization.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


In the US, at least, things got a whole less classy in the Trump/Hillary cycle.

Hillary had her famous "Basket of Deplorables" moment, which probably lost her the election:

"You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. (Laughter/applause) Right? (Laughter/applause) They're racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic - you name it.

And unfortunately, there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people - now have 11 million. He tweets and retweets their offensive hateful mean-spirited rhetoric.

Now, some of those folks - they are irredeemable, but thankfully, they are not America."

I don't know what on God's green earth had compelled Hillary to say this out loud, but she was channeling what a lot of people in her party were thinking.

Previously candidates would stop short of throwing these kind of fire bombs, and still pretended at least to try to be "President of all Americans".

Trump was a good boy too, and would lead a chant of "Lock Her Up!" during many of his rallies. This was like crack cocaine to his electorate. All sorts of animal instincts were unleashed.

Contrast this to McCain's correction, when a woman at a town hall called Obama a Muslim (as if that's an indictment):

"No, ma'am. He's a decent family man, citizen, that I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues, and that's what this campaign is all about".

This was highly classy, and made everyone respect John McCain much more. Maybe he would have beat Obama in the election, had he had thrown more napalm and used more corrosive speech, or didn't recruit a semi-literate retard as VP. But he didn't. He kept his good name, and didn't set American against American - even if it served his selfish interest.

Feedback / I love this forum - It's so Polish: tolerant, inconsistent, amusing [337]


The piece is long and the piece is girthy - thanks for confirming the fallacy of this.

------------

The rest, well - I'm frankly insulted.

It seems ChatGPT will say whatever you want it to say. I asked (neutrally) about Bobko on this forum, and he gave me a very decent response. Nothing special, lower in rank than some other folks (you included), but nothing about me being a troll or a Russian intelligence officer as Paulina likes to propose.

You biased it with your prompt.

Feedback / I love this forum - It's so Polish: tolerant, inconsistent, amusing [337]


Glad to not have been labeled a troll!

News / Will Elon Musk apply for political asylum in Poland or Russia? [39]


I don't think that a guy that wants to live on Mars, and works on problems like saving the planet from climate change - cares about a specific ethnic group from the Middle East and the bad reputation they have.

I might be wrong, but its my opinion that he isn't even capable of thinking in such categories.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


History shows that when Russia becomes involved - even such titans as Germany become "satellites", "puppets" etc.

Britain was a historic problem, because of its familial relationship with America. However, Britain has thankfully deleted itself out of the equation through epically stupid Brexit. Making our job supremely easier to accomplish.

The Germans are afraid of their own shadow.

The French are a shadow of what they imagine themselves to be.

The Italians are just happy to trade as good Gypsies.

Spain? Where is that?

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]

Thinking about it now...

Probably the first thing Russia would do is attempt to strengthen Brussels. To silence the rest.

It would push strongly for centralization. It would want all power to be handed over to Brussels.

The idea being that we control Brussels.

European centralization is only good if we are in charge. Otherwise, we will oppose it and do everything to prevent it from happening. God knows we have fertile ground to work with.

Largely following the British approach. Either we lead this thing, or we will try to destroy it.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


Russia sees the WORLD as its playground, and it feels that Europe is its home turf.

It is supremely offensive to Russia's sense of self, that Americans or Chinese can dictate how life develops on the Continent - all the while ignoring Russia.

I don't know about better or worse - but Russia will certainly try to remake the EU to more closely correspond with its own vision.

The Russian view on the EU is as an enormous force multiplier. Something that... if we gained access to - would ensure that our voice and our will are felt in every single corner of the globe. Already we are strong, but with the EU we would be invulnerable.

News / Will Elon Musk apply for political asylum in Poland or Russia? [39]

Elon likes Russia, and Russia likes Elon.

He came to Russia, to work with our rocket scientists, when he was planning his replacement for our RD-180 engine - which NASA had come to rely on as the sole engine that got it to space.

We are a big country - big enough and wide enough - to accommodate his ambition. With Russia, Elon can still conquer Mars and save the world from climate change.

With Poland he cannot do this.

Putin should directly invite Elon.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


No.

Orban explained well, why Ukraine in the EU is bad for Hungary.

It will absorb all the money, that would otherwise be going to you. It will make you poorer and less significant.

Ukraine has a demographic and industrial weight which Hungary and Poland do not possess. It would crush your agricultural, coal, and steelmaking industries. It would suppress the salaries of your people - because they are willing to work for less.

That's Ukraine.

Now imagine if Russia joins the EU? Nobody would ever remember about Poland again in Brussels? Even France and Germany would be competing to stay relevant. Russia, like Alexander I after the Napoleonic Wars, would seek to impose a dictate on how all of Europe should live. Russia's arguments would be infinite energy and the military power to ignore China and America.

For a Poland, that is climbing the ladder of the EU hierarchy, letting in a Russian monsters into the arena would not be good.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


LOL!

I would certainly not Katyn you, Kania! Haha!

I would shoot myself before shooting an unarmed and helpless person - regardless of whether in uniform or not.

Every people has beasts. Beasts get beast work. The beasts at Katyn were especially famous beasts. The main executioner, drank himself to death shortly after - unable to live with his conscience. That's Vasily Blokhin.

In Ukraine there are some beasts too, but there are many decent men. For example, recently I saw a video where a Russian officer slams the butt of a rifle into his underlings nose, after witnessing him humiliating a Ukrainian POW. With a broken face, and feeling a bit humiliated himself - the soldier immediately corrected his behavior.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


What are these interests?

As I understand them:

Russian interests:

1) Securing its "near abroad" as either allied to Russia or militarily neutral.

2) Protect the rights of Russian speakers, whether it applies to education, media, or government services.

3) Keep land and sea corridors open for Russian trade, whether it's a pipeline, a train, or a ship.

4) Prevent new states from acquiring nuclear weapons

5) Prevent encroachment of radical Islamism into our Muslim population

6) Ensure that space does not become an exclusively American or Chinese domain

Polish Interests:

1) Strengthening the economy and military to such a point, that Poland becomes considered a member of the core club of EU decision makers - alongside Italy, France, and Germany.

2) Ensure that regional leadership, vis-a-vis the Baltics, Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary - belongs to Poland. Any German or Russian influence there is undesirable.

3) Ensuring open access to the Baltic Sea

4) Defending the interests of the Polish diaspora, wherever they happen to live

5) Preventing the accession of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine into the EU.

6) Ensuring that America views Poland as its primary ally in the region, to prevent a repeat of 1939.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


It's interesting to observe Putin when he discusses Yeltsin.

He instinctively straightens up, and adopts a different tone of voice. For a moment - like a really quick glimpse - you can see Putin the employee again, talking about his boss.

"Boris Nikolayevich always used to say..."; "In cases like these, Boris Nikolayevich would never hesitate...", "We all know Boris Nikolayevich was a special person, but just how special - very few know...".

Just very curious, the special piety Putin still has for the memory of a person that many people think nearly killed Russia.

Every possible politician in Russia has said some bad thing about Yeltsin - except for Putin.

Maybe he thinks that if he doesn't say anything bad about Yeltsin, we won't say anything bad about him?

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


Dokładnie tak!

Yeltsin understood he could not protect the wider oligarchate, but he extracted a promise not to touch the immediate family. That is, daughter Tatyana and son-in-law Valentin, granddaughter Polina and her husband the oligarch Oleg Deripaska, and then the family "treasurer" Roman Abramovich.

Even as Putin was destroying Khodorkovsky, Gusinsky, Berezovsky, and others - he never touched "The Family".

Despite "The Family" representing everything Putin hated and what he built his public image in opposition to... he still showed up to the funeral. He has still not closed the Yeltsin Presidential Center, even though all it does is pour dirt on Putin.

In some sense, Putin is a very, very decent man. He knows how to keep his word and respect arrangements.

Thanks to him, Yeltsin did not have to witness his family go to jail or be scattered abroad in the last years of his life. He died as the first president of Russia, with all the honors and dignity possible.

Of course Putin burned to the ground his legacy, and is building a totally different Russia than Yeltsin envisioned - but Yeltsin never asked him to make any promises about that. In fact, it was Yeltsin who hand picked him. He must have saw in him what Russia needed.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


Quite nice. A strange sound. Sounds very familiar and close to the heart - on the one hand - but then some unorthodox/unrussian element plays and causes some dissonance.

What is this? To what rubric does it belong? Is this from the East of Poland?

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


Putin is like some caterpillar/butterfly in terms of how many times he metamorphosed.

There's Chechen War Putin - who doesn't sleep, but only thinks of killing Islamists. Always surrounded by military men, and holding midnight meetings of the Security Council.

Then there was Euro-Atlanticist Putin. Who addresses German parliaments in fluent German, is the darling of Davos, and best friend of George Bush. The guy that Gerhardt Schroeder fell in love with, and that Sarcozy and Berlusconi adored.

There's paranoid and conspiratorial Putin, that sees in every Navalny and Nemtsov a traitor - despite earlier being on good personal terms with at least one of them. This Putin, pushes away liberal friends with whom he's been acquainted for more than 30 years - like Alexis Kudrin and German Gref. Instead he surrounds himself with old buddies from the KGB.

Now we have the Tsar Putin era. He's now floating on some plane, impossible for normal mortals to comprehend. He doesn't care about economics, trade, or other such boring things. No - now Putin only thinks and acts like a world historical force. Everything else, other people have to manage.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]

The real fight between liberals and conservatives happens within the Kremlin. That is, within the cabinet of ministers. It's an old Russian tradition.

The Tsar oversees the squabbles between the two camps, and when it starts getting out of hand - steps in to mediate.

The liberals traditionally come from the economic bloc. They control the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, Ministry of Economic Development, Audit Chamber, and so on.

They are friends of foreign investment, hate sanctions, and believe Russia cannot hope to catch up in living standards without Western technology and access to Western markets.

The conservatives come from the intelligence community, law enforcement, the military, and sometimes the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

These guys have never earned an honest dollar in their lives, and have instead lived entirely on the government budget. They don't understand fancy words like "investment climate", "ease of doing business", or "macroeconomic stability". They understand that Russia is a great and powerful country, but it's not being treated as such. They see the liberals as an annoying hurdle on the way to "mobilizing the spirits of the Russian nation".

Depending on his mood, one day Putin may be a liberal, and then another day he may be a conservative. It depends on what's happening.

If the West is enforcing sanctions, and the business community is running around like headless chickens - then Putin puts on his "business friendly" hat and comes out to tell everyone that "I'm not crazy! Don't worry! I know what you are worried about, and I won't allow it!"

If there are instead problems at the front, then Putin will make a very serious face, and say very stern things about having to crackdown on immigration (even though he knows this is the worst fear of the business community).

In the end, he usually does neither thing, and just lets things flow by inertia.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


He almost certainly will be from Putin's camp - on this you can put money.

Nothing less would satisfy all the various influence groups existing in Russia - except for perhaps the liberal opposition and the communists.

Everyone made enormous fortunes during Putin's reign. There must be guarantees, that there will not be attempts to reverse these events. Putin maintained his promise to the Yeltsin family to not touch them, even though he very much wanted to. In the same way, whoever will replace Putin will have to promise to honor the status quo - otherwise they will not be allowed anywhere near the steering wheel.

You have to calm the oligarchs. You have to give comfort to the intelligence and law enforcement "nobility". You have to reassure the various regional princelings like Kadyrov. You have to garner the support of the governors, and powerful mayors.

Beyond that, you have the presidents of the former republics - who also feel they have a voice in who leads Russia. Strongmen in places like Tajikistan and Turkmenistan rely massively on Russian political cover. They must be reassured that whoever takes the throne in Russia, will not disturb previous understandings and allow them to continue to plunder their countries and build dynastic monarchies.

Nearly all these people were formed during the last 25 years. Anybody who remembers well the Yeltsin years is approaching retirement. So everybody is a product of the Putin system, and everybody owes Putin something.

Whoever replaces him, will emerge from within the system, and will protect the system from any attempts to destabilize it.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


De Gaulle famously said that "the graveyards are full of irreplaceable men."

Tusk has played a trick on your brain.

If somebody asked me (nobody is asking me), I would say that Sikorski would make a potentially good president, but a poor prime minister.

He's respected internationally, is experienced in foreign policy, is polished and erudite and as such creates a positive impression of Poland abroad. Good qualities for the presidency. At the same time, he's arrogant, married to an American Jew, feels more comfortable as a think tank panel member than talking to farmers... and as such probably not a "President of all Poles".

For the role of prime minister you need an able technocrat. Somebody who can navigate the Sejm and Brussels equally. Someone who can command the respect of his Council of Ministers, many of whom are large political personalities in their own right. He has to be skilled at coalition building, and capable at pushing through his policies. This is not Sikorski. Tusk certainly fills this role almost perfectly, and that's probably why you say he's indispensable. But he's a political corpse.

This is why, when choosing from the centre-left, I think the obvious choice is Trzaskowski. Yes, he lost the presidential elections twice - and as such may be fundamentally cursed... However, he's manager of the largest city in the country - showing he's able to navigate complex bureaucracies without them imploding. He may not be particularly charismatic (as evidenced by his presidential losses), but neither was Szydlo or Morawiecki.

Tusk can go behind the curtains, and parallel Kaczynski, and stop being an anchor on his party's electoral prospects.

Off-Topic / Stock Market Talk and Trading - part 2 [747]

After seven minutes of thinking, I am ready to provide my next six stock picks:

1) Gamestop
2) Nikola Corporation
3) Peloton
4) WeWork (if it's still trading over the counter)
5) AMC Entertainment
6) Lucid Motors

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


Johnny does not know how to spell the word "biased", and you expect him to understand what the difference is between sarcasm and lies?

Some advice for you - if you want Johnny to understand you, try to use simple language and don't cover more than a single subject at once. If you work with him, at his own pace, you'll be surprised at the results you can get.

Off-Topic / Stock Market Talk and Trading - part 2 [747]


I'm young. I can do crazy stuff like go "balls deep" on six of the same stocks, and wait until a new Pope is elected.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [495]


Did you ever expect that you would be in full agreement with Johnny Reb on the subject of the welfare state?

He's been so excited these past two days about Nawrocki's election, as if he himself is in line to receive the 500 PLN.

I think Johnny must also love how PiS has stacked the courts full of political judges.

Off-Topic / Stock Market Talk and Trading - part 2 [747]


I prepared for him a highly diversified portfolio. By highly diversified - I mean it consists exclusively of American oil companies.

If Russia's oil buyers get sanctioned, and Iran is nuked - CMS will be making money hand over fist.